Machine learning for early detection of traffic congestion using public transport traffic data

The purpose of this project is to provide better knowledge of how the bus travel times is affected by congestion and other problems in the urban traffic environment. The main source of data for this study is second-level measurements coming from all buses in the Linköping region showing the location of each vehicle.The main goal of this thesis is to propose, implement, test and optimize a machine learning algorithm based on data collected from regional buses from Sweden so that it is able to perform predictions on the future state of the urban traffic.El objetivo principal de este proyecto es proponer, implementar, probar y optimizar un algoritmo de aprendizaje automático basado en datos recopilados de autobuses regionales de Suecia para que poder realizar predicciones sobre el estado futuro del tráfico urbano.L'objectiu principal d'aquest projecte és proposar, implementar, provar i optimitzar un algoritme de machine learning basat en dades recollides a partir d'autobusos regionals de Suècia de manera per poder realitzar prediccions sobre l'estat futur del trànsit urbà

An adaptive admission control and load balancing algorithm for a QoS-aware Web system

The main objective of this thesis focuses on the design of an adaptive algorithm for admission control and content-aware load balancing for Web traffic. In order to set the context of this work, several reviews are included to introduce the reader in the background concepts of Web load balancing, admission control and the Internet traffic characteristics that may affect the good performance of a Web site. The admission control and load balancing algorithm described in this thesis manages the distribution of traffic to a Web cluster based on QoS requirements. The goal of the proposed scheduling algorithm is to avoid situations in which the system provides a lower performance than desired due to servers' congestion. This is achieved through the implementation of forecasting calculations. Obviously, the increase of the computational cost of the algorithm results in some overhead. This is the reason for designing an adaptive time slot scheduling that sets the execution times of the algorithm depending on the burstiness that is arriving to the system. Therefore, the predictive scheduling algorithm proposed includes an adaptive overhead control. Once defined the scheduling of the algorithm, we design the admission control module based on throughput predictions. The results obtained by several throughput predictors are compared and one of them is selected to be included in our algorithm. The utilisation level that the Web servers will have in the near future is also forecasted and reserved for each service depending on the Service Level Agreement (SLA). Our load balancing strategy is based on a classical policy. Hence, a comparison of several classical load balancing policies is also included in order to know which of them better fits our algorithm. A simulation model has been designed to obtain the results presented in this thesis

DEPAS: A Decentralized Probabilistic Algorithm for Auto-Scaling

The dynamic provisioning of virtualized resources offered by cloud computing infrastructures allows applications deployed in a cloud environment to automatically increase and decrease the amount of used resources. This capability is called auto-scaling and its main purpose is to automatically adjust the scale of the system that is running the application to satisfy the varying workload with minimum resource utilization. The need for auto-scaling is particularly important during workload peaks, in which applications may need to scale up to extremely large-scale systems. Both the research community and the main cloud providers have already developed auto-scaling solutions. However, most research solutions are centralized and not suitable for managing large-scale systems, moreover cloud providers' solutions are bound to the limitations of a specific provider in terms of resource prices, availability, reliability, and connectivity. In this paper we propose DEPAS, a decentralized probabilistic auto-scaling algorithm integrated into a P2P architecture that is cloud provider independent, thus allowing the auto-scaling of services over multiple cloud infrastructures at the same time. Our simulations, which are based on real service traces, show that our approach is capable of: (i) keeping the overall utilization of all the instantiated cloud resources in a target range, (ii) maintaining service response times close to the ones obtained using optimal centralized auto-scaling approaches.Comment: Submitted to Springer Computin

Traffic Profiles and Performance Modelling of Heterogeneous Networks

This thesis considers the analysis and study of short and long-term traffic patterns of heterogeneous networks. A large number of traffic profiles from different locations and network environments have been determined. The result of the analysis of these patterns has led to a new parameter, namely the 'application signature'. It was found that these signatures manifest themselves in various granularities over time, and are usually unique to an application, permanent virtual circuit (PVC), user or service. The differentiation of the application signatures into different categories creates a foundation for short and long-term management of networks. The thesis therefore looks from the micro and macro perspective on traffic management, covering both aspects. The long-term traffic patterns have been used to develop a novel methodology for network planning and design. As the size and complexity of interconnected systems grow steadily, usually covering different time zones, geographical and political areas, a new methodology has been developed as part of this thesis. A part of the methodology is a new overbooking mechanism, which stands in contrast to existing overbooking methods created by companies like Bell Labs. The new overbooking provides companies with cheaper network design and higher average throughput. In addition, new requirements like risk factors have been incorporated into the methodology, which lay historically outside the design process. A large network service provider has implemented the overbooking mechanism into their network planning process, enabling practical evaluation. The other aspect of the thesis looks at short-term traffic patterns, to analyse how congestion can be controlled. Reoccurring short-term traffic patterns, the application signatures, have been used for this research to develop the "packet train model" further. Through this research a new congestion control mechanism was created to investigate how the application signatures and the "extended packet train model" could be used. To validate the results, a software simulation has been written that executes the proprietary congestion mechanism and the new mechanism for comparison. Application signatures for the TCP/IP protocols have been applied in the simulation and the results are displayed and discussed in the thesis. The findings show the effects that frame relay congestion control mechanisms have on TCP/IP, where the re-sending of segments, buffer allocation, delay and throughput are compared. The results prove that application signatures can be used effectively to enhance existing congestion control mechanisms.AT&T (UK) Ltd, Englan

Performance Evaluation of the Control Plane in OpenFlow Networks

Online services and applications have grown rapidly in the last decade. The network is necessary for many services and applications. Many technologies are invented to meet the requirements of online services, such as micro-services and serverless computing. However, the traditional network architecture suffers from several shortages. It is difficult for the traditional network to adapt to new demands without massive reconfiguration. In traditional IP networks, it is complex to manage and configure the network devices since skilled technicians are required. Changing the policy of a network is also time consuming because network operators need to re-configure multiple network devices and update access control lists using low level commands. The management and configuration becomes more complex and challenging, when the traffic in a network changes frequently. SDN (Software-defined networking) is an innovative approach to manage networks more flexible. It separates the control plane from forwarding devices and uses a centralized controller to manipulate all the forwarding devices. The separation offers many benefits in terms of network flexibility and management. The controller can provide a global view of a network. Using the controller, network operators can manage and configure all the network devices at a high level interface. With SDN, a network can adapt to new demands by updating the applications in the controller. However, all these benefits come with a performance penalty. Since the controller manipulates all the forwarding devices, the performance of the controller impacts the performance of the whole network. In this thesis, we investigate the performance of SDN controllers. We also implement a benchmark tool for OpenFlow controllers. It measures the response time of an OpenFlow controller and fit a phase-type distribution to the response time. Based on the distribution of the response time, we build a queueing model for multiple controllers in an OpenFlow network and determine the optimal number of controllers that can minimize the response time of the controllers. We design an algorithm that can optimize the mapping relationship among the switches and controllers. The load of controllers can be balanced with the optimized mapping relationship