11 research outputs found
Large-Scale Kernel Methods for Independence Testing
Representations of probability measures in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces
provide a flexible framework for fully nonparametric hypothesis tests of
independence, which can capture any type of departure from independence,
including nonlinear associations and multivariate interactions. However, these
approaches come with an at least quadratic computational cost in the number of
observations, which can be prohibitive in many applications. Arguably, it is
exactly in such large-scale datasets that capturing any type of dependence is
of interest, so striking a favourable tradeoff between computational efficiency
and test performance for kernel independence tests would have a direct impact
on their applicability in practice. In this contribution, we provide an
extensive study of the use of large-scale kernel approximations in the context
of independence testing, contrasting block-based, Nystrom and random Fourier
feature approaches. Through a variety of synthetic data experiments, it is
demonstrated that our novel large scale methods give comparable performance
with existing methods whilst using significantly less computation time and
memory.Comment: 29 pages, 6 figure
Feature-based time-series analysis
This work presents an introduction to feature-based time-series analysis. The
time series as a data type is first described, along with an overview of the
interdisciplinary time-series analysis literature. I then summarize the range
of feature-based representations for time series that have been developed to
aid interpretable insights into time-series structure. Particular emphasis is
given to emerging research that facilitates wide comparison of feature-based
representations that allow us to understand the properties of a time-series
dataset that make it suited to a particular feature-based representation or
analysis algorithm. The future of time-series analysis is likely to embrace
approaches that exploit machine learning methods to partially automate human
learning to aid understanding of the complex dynamical patterns in the time
series we measure from the world.Comment: 28 pages, 9 figure
Learning in Feedforward Neural Networks Accelerated by Transfer Entropy
Current neural networks architectures are many times harder to train because of the increasing size and complexity of the used datasets. Our objective is to design more efficient training algorithms utilizing causal relationships inferred from neural networks. The transfer entropy (TE) was initially introduced as an information transfer measure used to quantify the statistical coherence between events (time series). Later, it was related to causality, even if they are not the same. There are only few papers reporting applications of causality or TE in neural networks. Our contribution is an information-theoretical method for analyzing information transfer between the nodes of feedforward neural networks. The information transfer is measured by the TE of feedback neural connections. Intuitively, TE measures the relevance of a connection in the network and the feedback amplifies this connection. We introduce a backpropagation type training algorithm that uses TE feedback connections to improve its performance
Learning in Convolutional Neural Networks Accelerated by Transfer Entropy
Recently, there is a growing interest in applying Transfer Entropy (TE) in quantifying the effective connectivity between artificial neurons. In a feedforward network, the TE can be used to quantify the relationships between neuron output pairs located in different layers. Our focus is on how to include the TE in the learning mechanisms of a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architecture. We introduce a novel training mechanism for CNN architectures which integrates the TE feedback connections. Adding the TE feedback parameter accelerates the training process, as fewer epochs are needed. On the flip side, it adds computational overhead to each epoch. According to our experiments on CNN classifiers, to achieve a reasonable computational overhead–accuracy trade-off, it is efficient to consider only the inter-neural information transfer of the neuron pairs between the last two fully connected layers. The TE acts as a smoothing factor, generating stability and becoming active only periodically, not after processing each input sample. Therefore, we can consider the TE is in our model a slowly changing meta-parameter
Predicting Intraday Financial Market Dynamics Using Takens\u27 Vectors; Incorporating Causality Testing and Machine Learning Techniques
Traditional approaches to predicting financial market dynamics tend to be linear and stationary, whereas financial time series data is increasingly nonlinear and non-stationary. Lately, advances in dynamical systems theory have enabled the extraction of complex dynamics from time series data. These developments include theory of time delay embedding and phase space reconstruction of dynamical systems from a scalar time series. In this thesis, a time delay embedding approach for predicting intraday stock or stock index movement is developed. The approach combines methods of nonlinear time series analysis with those of causality testing, theory of dynamical systems and machine learning (artificial neural networks). The approach is then applied to the Standard and Poors Index, and the results from our method are compared to traditional methods applied to the same data set
Evaluation of Granger causality measures for constructing networks from multivariate time series
Granger causality and variants of this concept allow the study of complex
dynamical systems as networks constructed from multivariate time series. In
this work, a large number of Granger causality measures used to form causality
networks from multivariate time series are assessed. These measures are in the
time domain, such as model-based and information measures, the frequency domain
and the phase domain. The study aims also to compare bivariate and multivariate
measures, linear and nonlinear measures, as well as the use of dimension
reduction in linear model-based measures and information measures. The latter
is particular relevant in the study of high-dimensional time series. For the
performance of the multivariate causality measures, low and high dimensional
coupled dynamical systems are considered in discrete and continuous time, as
well as deterministic and stochastic. The measures are evaluated and ranked
according to their ability to provide causality networks that match the
original coupling structure. The simulation study concludes that the Granger
causality measures using dimension reduction are superior and should be
preferred particularly in studies involving many observed variables, such as
multi-channel electroencephalograms and financial markets.Comment: 24 pages, 5 figures, to be published in Entrop
Measures of causality in complex datasets with application to financial data
This article investigates the causality structure of financial time series. We concentrate on three main approaches to measuring causality: linear Granger causality, kernel generalisations of Granger causality (based on ridge regression and the Hilbert-Schmidt norm of the cross-covariance operator) and transfer entropy, examining each method and comparing their theoretical properties, with special attention given to the ability to capture nonlinear causality. We also present the theoretical benefits of applying non-symmetrical measures rather than symmetrical measures of dependence. We apply the measures to a range of simulated and real data. The simulated data sets were generated with linear and several types of nonlinear dependence, using bivariate, as well as multivariate settings. An application to real-world financial data highlights the practical difficulties, as well as the potential of the methods. We use two real data sets: (1) U.S. inflation and one-month Libor; (2) S&P data and exchange rates for the following currencies: AUDJPY, CADJPY, NZDJPY, AUDCHF, CADCHF, NZDCHF. Overall, we reach the conclusion that no single method can be recognised as the best in all circumstances, and each of the methods has its domain of best applicability. We also highlight areas for improvement and future research
Measures of Causality in Complex Datasets with Application to Financial Data
This article investigates the causality structure of financial time series. We concentrate on three main approaches to measuring causality: linear Granger causality, kernel generalisations of Granger causality (based on ridge regression and the Hilbert–Schmidt norm of the cross-covariance operator) and transfer entropy, examining each method and comparing their theoretical properties, with special attention given to the ability to capture nonlinear causality. We also present the theoretical benefits of applying non-symmetrical measures rather than symmetrical measures of dependence. We apply the measures to a range of simulated and real data. The simulated data sets were generated with linear and several types of nonlinear dependence, using bivariate, as well as multivariate settings. An application to real-world financial data highlights the practical difficulties, as well as the potential of the methods. We use two real data sets: (1) U.S. inflation and one-month Libor; (2) S&P data and exchange rates for the following currencies: AUDJPY, CADJPY, NZDJPY, AUDCHF, CADCHF, NZDCHF. Overall, we reach the conclusion that no single method can be recognised as the best in all circumstances, and each of the methods has its domain of best applicability. We also highlight areas for improvement and future research