Techniques for the Fast Simulation of Models of Highly dependable Systems

With the ever-increasing complexity and requirements of highly dependable systems, their evaluation during design and operation is becoming more crucial. Realistic models of such systems are often not amenable to analysis using conventional analytic or numerical methods. Therefore, analysts and designers turn to simulation to evaluate these models. However, accurate estimation of dependability measures of these models requires that the simulation frequently observes system failures, which are rare events in highly dependable systems. This renders ordinary Simulation impractical for evaluating such systems. To overcome this problem, simulation techniques based on importance sampling have been developed, and are very effective in certain settings. When importance sampling works well, simulation run lengths can be reduced by several orders of magnitude when estimating transient as well as steady-state dependability measures. This paper reviews some of the importance-sampling techniques that have been developed in recent years to estimate dependability measures efficiently in Markov and nonMarkov models of highly dependable system

Can co-location be used as a proxy for face-to-face contacts?

Technological advances have led to a strong increase in the number of data collection efforts aimed at measuring co-presence of individuals at different spatial resolutions. It is however unclear how much co-presence data can inform us on actual face-to-face contacts, of particular interest to study the structure of a population in social groups or for use in data-driven models of information or epidemic spreading processes. Here, we address this issue by leveraging data sets containing high resolution face-to-face contacts as well as a coarser spatial localisation of individuals, both temporally resolved, in various contexts. The co-presence and the face-to-face contact temporal networks share a number of structural and statistical features, but the former is (by definition) much denser than the latter. We thus consider several down-sampling methods that generate surrogate contact networks from the co-presence signal and compare them with the real face-to-face data. We show that these surrogate networks reproduce some features of the real data but are only partially able to identify the most central nodes of the face-to-face network. We then address the issue of using such down-sampled co-presence data in data-driven simulations of epidemic processes, and in identifying efficient containment strategies. We show that the performance of the various sampling methods strongly varies depending on context. We discuss the consequences of our results with respect to data collection strategies and methodologies

Scaling Configuration of Energy Harvesting Sensors with Reinforcement Learning

With the advent of the Internet of Things (IoT), an increasing number of energy harvesting methods are being used to supplement or supplant battery based sensors. Energy harvesting sensors need to be configured according to the application, hardware, and environmental conditions to maximize their usefulness. As of today, the configuration of sensors is either manual or heuristics based, requiring valuable domain expertise. Reinforcement learning (RL) is a promising approach to automate configuration and efficiently scale IoT deployments, but it is not yet adopted in practice. We propose solutions to bridge this gap: reduce the training phase of RL so that nodes are operational within a short time after deployment and reduce the computational requirements to scale to large deployments. We focus on configuration of the sampling rate of indoor solar panel based energy harvesting sensors. We created a simulator based on 3 months of data collected from 5 sensor nodes subject to different lighting conditions. Our simulation results show that RL can effectively learn energy availability patterns and configure the sampling rate of the sensor nodes to maximize the sensing data while ensuring that energy storage is not depleted. The nodes can be operational within the first day by using our methods. We show that it is possible to reduce the number of RL policies by using a single policy for nodes that share similar lighting conditions.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figure

Neural Feedback Scheduling of Real-Time Control Tasks

Many embedded real-time control systems suffer from resource constraints and dynamic workload variations. Although optimal feedback scheduling schemes are in principle capable of maximizing the overall control performance of multitasking control systems, most of them induce excessively large computational overheads associated with the mathematical optimization routines involved and hence are not directly applicable to practical systems. To optimize the overall control performance while minimizing the overhead of feedback scheduling, this paper proposes an efficient feedback scheduling scheme based on feedforward neural networks. Using the optimal solutions obtained offline by mathematical optimization methods, a back-propagation (BP) neural network is designed to adapt online the sampling periods of concurrent control tasks with respect to changes in computing resource availability. Numerical simulation results show that the proposed scheme can reduce the computational overhead significantly while delivering almost the same overall control performance as compared to optimal feedback scheduling.Comment: To appear in International Journal of Innovative Computing, Information and Contro

Phytoplankton assemblage characteristics in recurrently fluctuating environments

Annual variations in biogeochemical and physical processes can lead to nutrient variability and seasonal patterns in phytoplankton productivity and assemblage structure. In many coastal systems river inflow and water exchange with the ocean varies seasonally, and alternating periods can arise where the nutrient most limiting to phytoplankton growth switches. Transitions between these alternating periods can be sudden or gradual and this depends on human activities, such as reservoir construction and interbasin water transfers. How such activities might influence phytoplankton assemblages is largely unknown. Here, we employed a multispecies, multi-nutrient model to explore how nutrient loading switching mode might affect characteristics of phytoplankton assemblages. The model is based on the Monod-relationship, predicting an instantaneous growth rate from ambient inorganic nutrient concentrations whereas the limiting nutrient at any given time was determined by Liebig’s Law of the Minimum. Our simulated phytoplankton assemblages self-organized from species rich pools over a 15-year period, and only the surviving species were considered as assemblage members. Using the model, we explored the interactive effects of complementarity level in trait trade-offs within phytoplankton assemblages and the amount of noise in the resource supply concentrations. We found that the effect of shift from a sudden resource supply transition to a gradual one, as observed in systems impacted by watershed development, was dependent on the level of complementarity. In the extremes, phytoplankton species richness and relative overyielding increased when complementarity was lowest, and phytoplankton biomass increased greatly when complementarity was highest. For low-complementarity simulations, the persistence of poorer-performing phytoplankton species of intermediate R*s led to higher richness and relative overyielding. For high-complementarity simulations, the formation of phytoplankton species clusters and niche compression enabled higher biomass accumulation. Our findings suggest that an understanding of factors influencing the emergence of life history traits important to complementarity is necessary to predict the impact of watershed development on phytoplankton productivity and assemblage structure

Modeling the environmental controls on tree water use at different temporal scales

Acknowledgements This study is part of the first author’s PhD projects in 2010–2014, co-funded by the National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training in Australia and the China Scholarship Council. We give thanks to Zijuan Deng and Xiang Xu for their assistance in the field. Constructive comments and suggestion from the anonymous reviewers are appreciated for significant improvement of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPostprin

A rao-blackwellized particle filter for INS/GPS integration

The localization performance of a navigation system can be improved by coupling different types of sensors. This paper focuses on INS-GPS integration. INS and GPS measurements allow to dene a non-linear state space model, which is appropriate to particle ltering. This model being conditionally linear Gaussian, a Rao-Blackwellization procedure can be applied to reduce the variance of the estimates