Kernel-based system identification from noisy and incomplete input-output data

In this contribution, we propose a kernel-based method for the identification of linear systems from noisy and incomplete input-output datasets. We model the impulse response of the system as a Gaussian process whose covariance matrix is given by the recently introduced stable spline kernel. We adopt an empirical Bayes approach to estimate the posterior distribution of the impulse response given the data. The noiseless and missing data samples, together with the kernel hyperparameters, are estimated maximizing the joint marginal likelihood of the input and output measurements. To compute the marginal-likelihood maximizer, we build a solution scheme based on the Expectation-Maximization method. Simulations on a benchmark dataset show the effectiveness of the method.Comment: 16 pages, submitted to IEEE Conference on Decision and Control 201

Maximum-likelihood estimation of delta-domain model parameters from noisy output signals

Fast sampling is desirable to describe signal transmission through wide-bandwidth systems. The delta-operator provides an ideal discrete-time modeling description for such fast-sampled systems. However, the estimation of delta-domain model parameters is usually biased by directly applying the delta-transformations to a sampled signal corrupted by additive measurement noise. This problem is solved here by expectation-maximization, where the delta-transformations of the true signal are estimated and then used to obtain the model parameters. The method is demonstrated on a numerical example to improve on the accuracy of using a shift operator approach when the sample rate is fast

On the Simulation of Polynomial NARMAX Models

In this paper, we show that the common approach for simulation non-linear stochastic models, commonly used in system identification, via setting the noise contributions to zero results in a biased response. We also demonstrate that to achieve unbiased simulation of finite order NARMAX models, in general, we require infinite order simulation models. The main contributions of the paper are two-fold. Firstly, an alternate representation of polynomial NARMAX models, based on Hermite polynomials, is proposed. The proposed representation provides a convenient way to translate a polynomial NARMAX model to a corresponding simulation model by simply setting certain terms to zero. This translation is exact when the simulation model can be written as an NFIR model. Secondly, a parameterized approximation method is proposed to curtail infinite order simulation models to a finite order. The proposed approximation can be viewed as a trade-off between the conventional approach of setting noise contributions to zero and the approach of incorporating the bias introduced by higher-order moments of the noise distribution. Simulation studies are provided to illustrate the utility of the proposed representation and approximation method.Comment: Accepted in IEEE CDC 201

Integrated Pre-Processing for Bayesian Nonlinear System Identification with Gaussian Processes

We introduce GP-FNARX: a new model for nonlinear system identification based on a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous model (NARX) with filtered regressors (F) where the nonlinear regression problem is tackled using sparse Gaussian processes (GP). We integrate data pre-processing with system identification into a fully automated procedure that goes from raw data to an identified model. Both pre-processing parameters and GP hyper-parameters are tuned by maximizing the marginal likelihood of the probabilistic model. We obtain a Bayesian model of the system's dynamics which is able to report its uncertainty in regions where the data is scarce. The automated approach, the modeling of uncertainty and its relatively low computational cost make of GP-FNARX a good candidate for applications in robotics and adaptive control.Comment: Proceedings of the 52th IEEE International Conference on Decision and Control (CDC), Firenze, Italy, December 201