An integrated decision support system based on simulation and mathematical programming of Petroleum transportation logistics

Discrete Event simulation (DES), mathematical programming (MP) and analysis of variance (ANOVA) are among the popular tools in operational research (OR) used in dynamic industry like petroleum industry. The integration of these methods even becomes more significant to managerial application in the industry. The objective of this thesis is to present an integrated decision support system by which a decision maker should be able to choose the optimal number of tanks, tank size and truck arrival rate to maximize average total profit and minimize the total transportation cost for an oil refinery terminal operations. The petroleum transportation management system (PTMS) is developed as a DSS using a discrete-event simulation program with ARENA software, mathematical linear programming (LP) with I-Log software and analysis of variance (ANOVA) with SPSS software, and these models are combined in complex program developed using visual basic software (VB). The simulation model represents the logistics operations from oil arriving to the refinery terminal to the supply points. The model process used as a decision support tool to help in evaluating and improving the comprehensive oil terminal operations. And also understanding and assessing of the different steps in a simulation process. An optimization model was formulated with the objective to minimize the total transportation cost. In the model formulation, hard constraints were considered and the linear programming (LP) technique was used. Result obtained suggests the use of certain types of trucks can reduce the operation costs, if compared to that of the current situation. The reduction of costs is due to the reduction of travelling trips as based on the problem constraints. Overall, output of this study has given positive impacts on the transportation operations. The effect of the changes can help the management of the transportation company to make efficient decisions. Multifactor ANOVA is used to determine whether different levels of the three-factors and their interactions significantly impact the oil refinery terminal's profit. ANOVA is also used to determine the flow rate of oil into the tanks station; tank and truck fill rate and a cost and revenue structure. The final step is to expand the model to cover the whole models (DES, LP and ANOVA) and create the integrated user interface. To sum up the combination of these techniques which allows evaluating the actual feasibility of supply planning considering all operations restrictions and variability of the supply logistics and the total transportation cost. In another words, a DSS have been developed to support a decision maker, who is planning to build a new facility or expand an existing oil refinery terminal, should be able to choose the optimal value for all important factors. The PTMS is able to predict with 99% confidence a set of factor levels that yields the highest average total profit

Planning and optimising of petroleum industry supply chain and logistics under uncertainty

Petroleum industry has a major share in the world energy and industrial markets. In the recent years, petroleum industry has grown increasingly complex as a result of tighter competition, stricter environmental regulations and lower-margin profits. It is facing a challenging task to remain competitive in a globalised market, the fluctuating demand for petroleum products and the current situation of fluctuating high petroleum crude oil prices is a demonstration that markets and industries throughout the world are impacted by the uncertainty and volatility of the petroleum industry. These factors and others forced petroleum companies for a greater need in the strategic planning and optimisation in order to make decisions that satisfy conflicting multi-objective goals of maximising expected profit while simultaneously minimising risk. These decisions have to take into account uncertainties and constraints in factors such as the source and availability of raw material, production and distribution costs and expected market demand. The main aim of this research is the development of a strategic planning and optimising model suitable for use within the petroleum industry supply chain under different types of uncertainty. The petroleum supply chain consists of all those activities related to the petroleum industry, from the recovery of raw materials to the distribution of the finished product. This network of activities forms the basis of the proposed mathematical and simulation models. Mathematical model of two-stage stochastic linear programming taking into consideration the effect of uncertainty in market demand is developed to address the strategic planning and optimisation of petroleum supply chain. GAMS software is used to solve the proposed mathematical models for this research. Arena simulation Software is utilised to develop a model for the proposed petroleum supply chain starting from crude oil supply to the system, going through three stages of separation processes and finally reaching the distillation stage. The model took into account the following factors: Input Rate, Oil Quality, Distillation Capacity and Number of Failed Separators which are analysed against the performance measures: Total Products and Equipment Utilisation. The results obtained from the experiment are analysed using SPSS Programme

A MULTIDISCIPLINARY TECHNO-ECONOMIC DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR VALIDATING LONG-TERM ECONOMIC VIABILITY OF BIOREFINING PROCESSES

Increasing demand for energy and transportation fuel has motivated researchers all around the world to explore alternatives for a long-term sustainable source of energy. Biomass is one such renewable resource that can be converted into various marketable products by the process of biorefining. Currently, research is taking strides in developing conversion techniques for producing biofuels from multiple bio-based feedstocks. However, the greatest concern with emerging processes is the long-term viability as a sustainable source of energy. Hence, a framework is required that can incorporate novel and existing processes to validate their economic, environmental and social potential in satisfying present energy demands, without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own energy needs. This research focuses on developing a framework that can incorporate fundamental research to determine its long-term viability, simultaneously providing critical techno-economic and decision support information to various stakeholders. This contribution links various simulation and optimization models to create a decision support tool, to estimate the viability of biorefining options in any given region. Multiple disciplines from the Process Systems Engineering and Supply Chain Management are integrated to develop the comprehensive framework. Process simulation models for thermochemical and biochemical processes are developed and optimized using Aspen Engineering Suite. Finally, for validation, the framework is analyzed by combining the outcomes of the process simulation with the supply chain models. The developed techno-economic model takes into account detailed variable costs and capital investments for various conversion processes. Subsequently, case studies are performed to demonstrate the applicability of the decision support tool for the Jackson Purchase region of Western Kentucky. The multidisciplinary framework is a unique contribution in the field of Process Systems Engineering as it demonstrates simulation of process optimization models and illustrates its iterative linking with the supply chain optimization models to estimate the economics of biorefinery from multi-stakeholder perspective. This informative tool not only assists in comparing modes of operation but also forecasts the effect of future scenarios, such as, utilization of marginal land for planting dedicated energy crops and incorporation of emerging enzymatic processes. The resulting framework is novel and informative in assisting investors, policy makers and other stakeholders for evaluating the impacts of biorefining. The results obtained supports the generalizability of this tool to be applied in any given region and guide stakeholders in making financial and strategic decisions

Simulation Model of Maritime Inventory Routing Problem with Particular Application to Cement Distribution

yesSimulation is undoubtedly a very useful tool for modelling a system specifically in the presence of stochastic elements and complex interactions between the system entities. In this paper, a simulation model to support decision making in ship scheduling for Maritime Inventory Routing Problem (MIRP) with particular application to cement distribution is presented. The system under study is a combined discrete and continuous system, where a heterogeneous fleet of ships with various sizes and types of contracts transport bulk cement products from production facility (Central Supply, CS) of a cement company to its packing plants (Distribution Centres, DCs). The simulation model in this study has been designed and developed thoroughly to emulate the complexity of the real system of the MIRP. The simulation model has demonstrated the capability to provide support for decision making in ship scheduling of the heterogeneous shipping fleet in the following forms: (a) real time states of inventory levels at CS and DCs and (b) ships’ routing. In addition, one of the main strength of this simulation model is its flexibility. It can be easily expanded or adjusted to different size of system entities for example number of CSs, DCs, berths, vessels, and products.Support for this research is provided by the Directorate of Higher Education, Ministry of National Education, Republic of Indonesi

The application of discrete event simulation and system dynamics in the logistics and supply chain context

Discrete event simulation (DES) and system dynamics (SD) are two modelling approaches widely used as decision support tools in logistics and supply chain management (LSCM). A widely held belief exists that SD is mostly used to model problems at a strategic level, whereas DES is used at an operational/tactical level. This paper explores the application of DES and SD as decision support systems (DSS) for LSCM by looking at the nature and level of issues modelled. Peer reviewed journal papers that use these modelling approaches to study supply chains, published between 1996 and 2006 are reviewed. A total of 127 journal articles are analysed to identify the frequency with which the two simulation approaches are used as modelling tools for DSS in LSCM. Our findings suggest that DES has been used more frequently to model supply chains, with the exception of the bullwhip effect, which is mostly modelled using SD. Based on the most commonly used modelling approach, issues in LSCM are categorised into four groups: the DES domain, the SD domain, the common domain and the less common domain. The study furthermore suggests that in terms of the level of decision making involved, strategic or operational/tactical, there is no difference in the use of either DES or SD. The results of this study inform the existing literature about the use of DES and SD as DSS tools in LSCM

Development of an optimization model for biofuel facility size and location and a simulation model for design of a biofuel supply chain

To mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduce U.S. dependence on imported oil, the United States (U.S.) is pursuing several options to create biofuels from renewable woody biomass (hereafter referred to as “biomass”). Because of the distributed nature of biomass feedstock, the cost and complexity of biomass recovery operations has significant challenges that hinder increased biomass utilization for energy production. To facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization and tapping unused forest residues, it is proposed to develop biofuel supply chain models based on optimization and simulation approaches. The biofuel supply chain is structured around four components: biofuel facility locations and sizes, biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation, and storage. A Geographic Information System (GIS) based approach is proposed as a first step for selecting potential facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass based on a set of evaluation criteria, such as accessibility to biomass, railway/road transportation network, water body and workforce. The development of optimization and simulation models is also proposed. The results of the models will be used to determine (1) the number, location, and size of the biofuel facilities, and (2) the amounts of biomass to be transported between the harvesting areas and the biofuel facilities over a 20-year timeframe. The multi-criteria objective is to minimize the weighted sum of the delivered feedstock cost, energy consumption, and GHG emissions simultaneously. Finally, a series of sensitivity analyses will be conducted to identify the sensitivity of the decisions, such as the optimal site selected for the biofuel facility, to changes in influential parameters, such as biomass availability and transportation fuel price. Intellectual Merit The proposed research will facilitate the exploration of a wide variety of conditions that promise profitable biomass utilization in the renewable biofuel industry. The GIS-based facility location analysis considers a series of factors which have not been considered simultaneously in previous research. Location analysis is critical to the financial success of producing biofuel. The modeling of woody biomass supply chains using both optimization and simulation, combing with the GIS-based approach as a precursor, have not been done to date. The optimization and simulation models can help to ensure the economic and environmental viability and sustainability of the entire biofuel supply chain at both the strategic design level and the operational planning level. Broader Impacts The proposed models for biorefineries can be applied to other types of manufacturing or processing operations using biomass. This is because the biomass feedstock supply chain is similar, if not the same, for biorefineries, biomass fired or co-fired power plants, or torrefaction/pelletization operations. Additionally, the research results of this research will continue to be disseminated internationally through publications in journals, such as Biomass and Bioenergy, and Renewable Energy, and presentations at conferences, such as the 2011 Industrial Engineering Research Conference. For example, part of the research work related to biofuel facility identification has been published: Zhang, Johnson and Sutherland [2011] (see Appendix A). There will also be opportunities for the Michigan Tech campus community to learn about the research through the Sustainable Future Institute

Recent developments and future trends of industrial agents

The agent technology provides a new way to design and engineer control solutions based on the decentralization of control over distributed structures, addressing the current requirements for modern control systems in industrial domains. This paper presents the current situation of the development and deployment of agent technology, discussing the initiatives and the current trends faced for a wider dissemination and industrial adoption, based on the work that is being carried out by the IEEE IES Technical Committee on Industrial Agents