Likelihood based observability analysis and confidence intervals for predictions of dynamic models

Mechanistic dynamic models of biochemical networks such as Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) contain unknown parameters like the reaction rate constants and the initial concentrations of the compounds. The large number of parameters as well as their nonlinear impact on the model responses hamper the determination of confidence regions for parameter estimates. At the same time, classical approaches translating the uncertainty of the parameters into confidence intervals for model predictions are hardly feasible. In this article it is shown that a so-called prediction profile likelihood yields reliable confidence intervals for model predictions, despite arbitrarily complex and high-dimensional shapes of the confidence regions for the estimated parameters. Prediction confidence intervals of the dynamic states allow a data-based observability analysis. The approach renders the issue of sampling a high-dimensional parameter space into evaluating one-dimensional prediction spaces. The method is also applicable if there are non-identifiable parameters yielding to some insufficiently specified model predictions that can be interpreted as non-observability. Moreover, a validation profile likelihood is introduced that should be applied when noisy validation experiments are to be interpreted. The properties and applicability of the prediction and validation profile likelihood approaches are demonstrated by two examples, a small and instructive ODE model describing two consecutive reactions, and a realistic ODE model for the MAP kinase signal transduction pathway. The presented general approach constitutes a concept for observability analysis and for generating reliable confidence intervals of model predictions, not only, but especially suitable for mathematical models of biological systems

Estimation and Identifiability of Model Parameters in Human Nociceptive Processing Using Yes-No Detection Responses to Electrocutaneous Stimulation

Healthy or pathological states of nociceptive subsystems determine different stimulus-response relations measured from quantitative sensory testing. In turn, stimulus-responses measurements may be used to assess these states. In a recently developed computational model, six model parameters characterize activation of nerve endings and spinal neurons. However, both model nonlinearity and limited information in yes-no detection responses to electrocutaneous stimuli challenge to estimate model parameters. Here, we address the question whether and how one can overcome these difficulties for reliable parameter estimation. First, we fit the computational model to experimental stimulus-response pairs by maximizing the likelihood. To evaluate the balance between model fit and complexity, we evaluate the Bayesian Information Criterion. We find that the computational model is better than a conventional logistic model regarding the balance. Second, our theoretical analysis suggests to vary the pulse width among applied stimuli as a necessary condition to prevent structural non-identifiability. In addition, the numerically implemented profile likelihood approach reveals structural and practical non-identifiability. Our model-based approach with integration of psychophysical measurements can be useful for a reliable assessment of states of the nociceptive system

Quantitative analysis of amino acid metabolism in liver cancer links glutamate excretion to nucleotide synthesis

Many cancer cells consume glutamine at high rates; counterintuitively, they simultaneously excrete glutamate, the first intermediate in glutamine metabolism. Glutamine consumption has been linked to replenishment of tricarboxylic acid cycle (TCA) intermediates and synthesis of adenosine triphosphate (ATP), but the reason for glutamate excretion is unclear. Here, we dynamically profile the uptake and excretion fluxes of a liver cancer cell line (HepG2) and use genome-scale metabolic modeling for in-depth analysis. We find that up to 30% of the glutamine is metabolized in the cytosol, primarily for nucleotide synthesis, producing cytosolic glutamate. We hypothesize that excreting glutamate helps the cell to increase the nucleotide synthesis rate to sustain growth. Indeed, we show experimentally that partial inhibition of glutamate excretion reduces cell growth. Our integrative approach thus links glutamine addiction to glutamate excretion in cancer and points toward potential drug targets

Dual-controlled optogenetic system for the rapid down-regulation of protein levels in mammalian cells

Abstract Optogenetic switches are emerging molecular tools for studying cellular processes as they offer higher spatiotemporal and quantitative precision than classical, chemical-based switches. Light-controllable gene expression systems designed to upregulate protein expression levels meanwhile show performances superior to their chemical-based counterparts. However, systems to reduce protein levels with similar efficiency are lagging behind. Here, we present a novel two-component, blue light-responsive optogenetic OFF switch (‘Blue-OFF’), which enables a rapid and quantitative down-regulation of a protein upon illumination. Blue-OFF combines the first light responsive repressor KRAB-EL222 with the protein degradation module B-LID (blue light-inducible degradation domain) to simultaneously control gene expression and protein stability with a single wavelength. Blue-OFF thus outperforms current optogenetic systems for controlling protein levels. The system is described by a mathematical model which aids in the choice of experimental conditions such as light intensity and illumination regime to obtain the desired outcome. This approach represents an advancement of dual-controlled optogenetic systems in which multiple photosensory modules operate synergistically. As exemplified here for the control of apoptosis in mammalian cell culture, the approach opens up novel perspectives in fundamental research and applications such as tissue engineering

Monte Carlo Simulations for the Analysis of Non-linear Parameter Confidence Intervals in Optimal Experimental Design

Especially in biomanufacturing, methods to design optimal experiments are a valuable technique to fully exploit the potential of the emerging technical possibilities that are driving experimental miniaturization and parallelization. The general objective is to reduce the experimental effort while maximizing the information content of an experiment, speeding up knowledge gain in R&D. The approach of model-based design of experiments (known as MBDoE) utilizes the information of an underlying mathematical model describing the system of interest. A common method to predict the accuracy of the parameter estimates uses the Fisher information matrix to approximate the 90% confidence intervals of the estimates. However, for highly non-linear models, this method might lead to wrong conclusions. In such cases, Monte Carlo sampling gives a more accurate insight into the parameter's estimate probability distribution and should be exploited to assess the reliability of the approximations made through the Fisher information matrix. We first introduce the model-based optimal experimental design for parameter estimation including parameter identification and validation by means of a simple non-linear Michaelis-Menten kinetic and show why Monte Carlo simulations give a more accurate depiction of the parameter uncertainty. Secondly, we propose a very robust and simple method to find optimal experimental designs using Monte Carlo simulations. Although computational expensive, the method is easy to implement and parallelize. This article focuses on practical examples of bioprocess engineering but is generally applicable in other fields

Numerical simulation of vascular tumour growth under antiangiogenic treatment: addressing the paradigm of single-agent bevacizumab therapy with the use of experimental data

Background: Antiangiogenic agents have been recently added to the oncological armamentarium with bevacizumab probably being the most popular representative in current clinical practice. The elucidation of the mode of action of these agents is a prerequisite for personalized prediction of antiangiogenic treatment response and selection of patients who may benefit from this kind of therapy. To this end, having used as a basis a preexisting continuous vascular tumour growth model which addresses the targeted nature of antiangiogenic treatment, we present a paper characterized by the following three features. First, the integration of a two-compartmental bevacizumab specific pharmacokinetic module into the core of the aforementioned preexisting model. Second, its mathematical modification in order to reproduce the asymptotic behaviour of tumour volume in the theoretical case of a total destruction of tumour neovasculature. Third, the exploitation of a range of published animal datasets pertaining to antitumour efficacy of bevacizumab on various tumour types (breast, lung, head and neck, colon).Results: Results for both the unperturbed growth and the treatment module reveal qualitative similarities with experimental observations establishing the biologically acceptable behaviour of the model. The dynamics of the untreated tumour has been studied via a parameter analysis, revealing the role of each relevant input parameter to tumour evolution. The combined effect of endogenous proangiogenic and antiangiogenic factors on the angiogenic potential of a tumour is also studied, in order to capture the dynamics of molecular competition between the two key-players of tumoural angiogenesis. The adopted methodology also allows accounting for the newly recognized direct antitumour effect of the specific agent.Conclusions: Interesting observations have been made, suggesting a potential size-dependent tumour response to different treatment modalities and determining the relative timing of cytotoxic versus antiangiogenic agents administration. Insight into the comparative effectiveness of different antiangiogenic treatment strategies is revealed. The results of a series of in vivo experiments in mice bearing diverse types of tumours (breast, lung, head and neck, colon) and treated with bevacizumab are successfully reproduced, supporting thus the validity of the underlying model.Reviewers: This article was reviewed by L. Hanin, T. Radivoyevitch and L. Edler