Deep Learning Techniques in Extreme Weather Events: A Review

Extreme weather events pose significant challenges, thereby demanding techniques for accurate analysis and precise forecasting to mitigate its impact. In recent years, deep learning techniques have emerged as a promising approach for weather forecasting and understanding the dynamics of extreme weather events. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art deep learning in the field. We explore the utilization of deep learning architectures, across various aspects of weather prediction such as thunderstorm, lightning, precipitation, drought, heatwave, cold waves and tropical cyclones. We highlight the potential of deep learning, such as its ability to capture complex patterns and non-linear relationships. Additionally, we discuss the limitations of current approaches and highlight future directions for advancements in the field of meteorology. The insights gained from this systematic review are crucial for the scientific community to make informed decisions and mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events

Leveraging multi-model season-ahead streamflow forecasts to trigger advanced flood preparedness in Peru

Disaster planning has historically allocated minimal effort and finances toward advanced preparedness; however, evidence supports reduced vulnerability to flood events, saving lives and money, through appropriate early actions. Among other requirements, effective early action systems necessitate the availability of high-quality forecasts to inform decision making. In this study, we evaluate the ability of statistical and physically based season-ahead prediction models to appropriately trigger flood early preparedness actions based on a 75 % or greater probability of surpassing the 80th percentile of historical seasonal streamflow for the flood-prone Marañón River and Piura River in Peru. The statistical prediction model, developed in this work, leverages the asymmetric relationship between seasonal streamflow and the ENSO phenomenon. Additionally, a multi-model (least-squares combination) is also evaluated against current operational practices. The statistical prediction demonstrates superior performance compared to the physically based model for the Marañón River by correctly triggering preparedness actions in three out of four historical occasions, while both the statistical and multi-model predictions capture all four historical events when the required threshold exceedance probability is reduced to 50 %, with only one false alarm. For the Piura River, the statistical model proves superior to all other approaches, correctly triggering 28 % more often in the hindcast period. Continued efforts should focus on applying this season-ahead prediction framework to additional flood-prone locations where early actions may be warranted and current forecast capacity is limited.Campus Lima Centr

Converging Human Intelligence With AI Systems to Advance Flood Evacuation Decision Making

The powers that artificial intelligence (AI) has developed are astounding, with recent success in integrating into a human cognitive workflow. AI will attain its full potential only if, as part of its intelligence, it also actively teams up with humans to co-create solutions. Combining AI simulation with human understanding and strategic abilities through data convergence may optimize the process and provide a capacity akin to teaming intelligence. This thesis will introduce the concepts of Human AI Convergence (HAC) capabilities for flood evacuation decision-making. The concept introduced in this thesis is the first step toward the HAC concept in weather disaster applications. This research demonstrates a synergy between humans and AI by integrating the data produced by humans through social media with an AI system to enhance a flood evacuation decision-making problem. The prediction from Long short-term memory (LSTM) and a river hydraulic model, i.e., Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND), is integrated with human data from X (previously Twitter) to visualize flood inundation areas, which acts as a 3rd party agent for a HAC system. The goal is to synthesize and analyze HAC competence in flood evacuation emergency management and harness the full potential of AI as a partner in real-time planning and decision-making. This thesis has explored why HAC intelligence is essential to emergency planning and decision-making, providing a general structure for researchers to use HAC to devise effective systems that cooperate well and evaluate state-of-the-art, and, in doing so, providing a research agenda and a roadmap for future flood evacuation emergency management, rescue, and decision making. This state-of-the-art flood evacuation product stands to advance the frontier of human-AI collaborative research significantly

Multi-step Ahead Inflow Forecasting for a Norwegian Hydro-Power Use-Case, Based on Spatial-Temporal Attention Mechanism

Hydrological forecasting has been an ongoing area of research due to its importance to improve decision making on water resource management, flood management, and climate change mitigation. With the increasing availability of hydrological data, Machine Learning (ML) techniques have started to play an important role, enabling us to better understand and predict complex hydrological events. However, some challenges remain. Hydrological processes have spatial and temporal dependencies that are not always easy to capture with traditional ML models, and a thorough understanding of these dependencies is essential when developing accurate predictive models. This thesis explores the use of ML techniques in hydrological forecasting and consists of an introduction, two papers, and an application developed alongside the case study. The motivation for this research is to enhance our understanding of the spatial and temporal dependencies in hydrological processes and to explore how ML techniques, particularly those incorporating attention mechanisms, can aid in hydrological forecasting. The first paper is a chronological literature review that explores the development of data-driven forecasting in hydrology, and highlighting the potential application of attention mechanisms in hydrological forecasting. These attention mechanisms have proven to be successful in various domains, allowing models to focus on the most relevant parts of the input for making predictions, which is particularly useful when dealing with spatial and temporal data. The second paper is a case study of a specific ML model incorporating these attention mechanisms. The focus is to illustrate the influence of spatial and temporal dependencies in a real-world hydrological forecasting scenario, thereby showcasing the practical application of these techniques. In parallel with the case study, an application has been developed, employing the principles and techniques discovered throughout the course of this research. The application aims to provide a practical demonstration of the concepts explored in the thesis, contributing to the field of hydrological forecasting by introducing a tool for hydropower suppliers.Masteroppgave i Programvareutvikling samarbeid med HVLPROG399MAMN-PRO

Evaluation of Machine Learning Techniques for Inflow Prediction in Lake Como, Italy

Abstract Accurate streamflow prediction is a fundamental task for integrated water resources management and flood risk mitigation. The purpose of this study is to forecast the water inflow to lake Como, (Italy) using different machine learning algorithms. The forecast is done for different days ranging from one day to three days. These models are evaluated by three statistical measures including Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Squared Error, and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient. The experimental results show that Neural Network performs better for streamflow estimation with MAE and RMSE followed by Support Vector Regression and Random Forest