Metareasoning for Planning and Execution in Autonomous Systems

Metareasoning is the process by which an autonomous system optimizes, specifically monitors and controls, its own planning and execution processes in order to operate more effectively in its environment. As autonomous systems rapidly grow in sophistication and autonomy, the need for metareasoning has become critical for efficient and reliable operation in noisy, stochastic, unstructured domains for long periods of time. This is due to the uncertainty over the limitations of their reasoning capabilities and the range of their potential circumstances. However, despite considerable progress in metareasoning as a whole over the last thirty years, work on metareasoning for planning relies on several assumptions that diminish its accuracy and practical utility in autonomous systems that operate in the real world while work on metareasoning for execution has not seen much attention yet. This dissertation therefore proposes more effective metareasoning for planning while expanding the scope of metareasoning to execution to improve the efficiency of planning and the reliability of execution in autonomous systems. In particular, we offer a two-pronged framework that introduces metareasoning for efficient planning and reliable execution in autonomous systems. We begin by proposing two forms of metareasoning for efficient planning: (1) a method that determines when to interrupt an anytime algorithm and act on the current solution by using online performance prediction and (2) a method that tunes the hyperparameters of the anytime algorithm at runtime by using deep reinforcement learning. We then propose two forms of metareasoning for reliable execution: (3) a method that recovers from exceptions that can be encountered during operation by using belief space planning and (4) a method that maintains and restores safety during operation by using probabilistic planning

Machine Learning Research Trends in Africa: A 30 Years Overview with Bibliometric Analysis Review

In this paper, a critical bibliometric analysis study is conducted, coupled with an extensive literature survey on recent developments and associated applications in machine learning research with a perspective on Africa. The presented bibliometric analysis study consists of 2761 machine learning-related documents, of which 98% were articles with at least 482 citations published in 903 journals during the past 30 years. Furthermore, the collated documents were retrieved from the Science Citation Index EXPANDED, comprising research publications from 54 African countries between 1993 and 2021. The bibliometric study shows the visualization of the current landscape and future trends in machine learning research and its application to facilitate future collaborative research and knowledge exchange among authors from different research institutions scattered across the African continent

Climate Informatics

The impacts of present and potential future climate change will be one of the most important scientific and societal challenges in the 21st century. Given observed changes in temperature, sea ice, and sea level, improving our understanding of the climate system is an international priority. This system is characterized by complex phenomena that are imperfectly observed and even more imperfectly simulated. But with an ever-growing supply of climate data from satellites and environmental sensors, the magnitude of data and climate model output is beginning to overwhelm the relatively simple tools currently used to analyze them. A computational approach will therefore be indispensable for these analysis challenges. This chapter introduces the fledgling research discipline climate informatics: collaborations between climate scientists and machine learning researchers in order to bridge this gap between data and understanding. We hope that the study of climate informatics will accelerate discovery in answering pressing questions in climate science

CIRA annual report FY 2017/2018

Reporting period April 1, 2017-March 31, 2018

An adaptive atmospheric prediction algorithm to improve density forecasting for aerocapture guidance processes

Many modern entry guidance systems depend on predictions of atmospheric parameters, notably atmospheric density, in order to guide the entry vehicle to some desired final state. However, in highly dynamic atmospheric environments such as the Martian atmosphere, the density may vary by as much as 200% from predicted pre-entry trends. This high level of atmospheric density uncertainty can cause significant complications for entry guidance processes and may in extreme scenarios cause complete failure of the entry. In the face of this uncertainty, mission designers are compelled to apply large trajectory and design safety margins which typically drive the system design towards less efficient solutions with smaller delivered payloads. The margins necessary to combat the high levels of atmospheric uncertainty may even preclude scientifically interesting destinations or architecturally useful mission modes such as aerocapture. Aerocapture is a method for inserting a spacecraft into an orbit about a planetary body with an atmosphere without the need for significant propulsive maneuvers. This can reduce the required propellant and propulsion hardware for a given mission which lowers mission costs and increases the available payload fraction. However, large density dispersions have a particularly acute effect on aerocapture trajectories due to the interaction of the high required speeds and relatively low densities encountered at aerocapture altitudes. Therefore, while the potential system level benefits of aerocapture are great, so too are the risks associated with this mission mode in highly uncertain atmospheric environments such as Mars. Contemporary entry guidance systems utilize static atmospheric density models for trajectory prediction and control. These static models are unable to alter the fundamental nature of the underlying state equations which are used to predict atmospheric density. This limits both the fidelity and adaptive freedom of these models and forces the guidance system to retroactively correct for the density prediction errors after those errors have already impacted the trajectory. A new class of dynamic density estimator called a Plastic Ensemble Neural System (PENS) is introduced which is able to generate high fidelity, adaptable density forecast models by altering the underlying atmospheric state equations to better agree with observed atmospheric trends. A new construct called an ensemble echo is also introduced which creates an associative learning architecture, permitting PENS to evolve with increasing atmospheric exposure. The PENS estimator is applied to a numerical guidance system and the performance of the composite system is investigated with over 144,000 guided trajectory simulations. The results demonstrate that the PENS algorithm achieves significant reductions in both the required post-aerocapture performance, and the aerocapture failure rates relative to historical density estimators.Ph.D

Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods

This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue Flood Forecasting Using Machine Learning Methods that was published in Wate

A hybrid algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning with application to multi-label learning

We present a novel hybrid algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning, called H2PC. It first reconstructs the skeleton of a Bayesian network and then performs a Bayesian-scoring greedy hill-climbing search to orient the edges. The algorithm is based on divide-and-conquer constraint-based subroutines to learn the local structure around a target variable. We conduct two series of experimental comparisons of H2PC against Max-Min Hill-Climbing (MMHC), which is currently the most powerful state-of-the-art algorithm for Bayesian network structure learning. First, we use eight well-known Bayesian network benchmarks with various data sizes to assess the quality of the learned structure returned by the algorithms. Our extensive experiments show that H2PC outperforms MMHC in terms of goodness of fit to new data and quality of the network structure with respect to the true dependence structure of the data. Second, we investigate H2PC's ability to solve the multi-label learning problem. We provide theoretical results to characterize and identify graphically the so-called minimal label powersets that appear as irreducible factors in the joint distribution under the faithfulness condition. The multi-label learning problem is then decomposed into a series of multi-class classification problems, where each multi-class variable encodes a label powerset. H2PC is shown to compare favorably to MMHC in terms of global classification accuracy over ten multi-label data sets covering different application domains. Overall, our experiments support the conclusions that local structural learning with H2PC in the form of local neighborhood induction is a theoretically well-motivated and empirically effective learning framework that is well suited to multi-label learning. The source code (in R) of H2PC as well as all data sets used for the empirical tests are publicly available.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1101.5184 by other author

Aerospace medicine and biology: A cumulative index to a continuing bibliography (supplement 384)

This publication is a cumulative index to the abstracts contained in Supplements 372 through 383 of Aerospace Medicine and Biology: A Continuing Bibliography. It includes seven indexes: subject, personal author, corporate source, foreign technology, contract number, report number, and accession number