Modelling and simulating change in reforesting mountain landscapes using a social-ecological framework

Natural reforestation of European mountain landscapes raises major environmental and societal issues. With local stakeholders in the Pyrenees National Park area (France), we studied agricultural landscape colonisation by ash (Fraxinus excelsior) to enlighten its impacts on biodiversity and other landscape functions of importance for the valley socio-economics. The study comprised an integrated assessment of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) since the 1950s, and a scenario analysis of alternative future policy. We combined knowledge and methods from landscape ecology, land change and agricultural sciences, and a set of coordinated field studies to capture interactions and feedback in the local landscape/land-use system. Our results elicited the hierarchically-nested relationships between social and ecological processes. Agricultural change played a preeminent role in the spatial and temporal patterns of LUCC. Landscape colonisation by ash at the parcel level of organisation was merely controlled by grassland management, and in fact depended on the farmer's land management at the whole-farm level. LUCC patterns at the landscape level depended to a great extent on interactions between farm household behaviours and the spatial arrangement of landholdings within the landscape mosaic. Our results stressed the need to represent the local SES function at a fine scale to adequately capture scenarios of change in landscape functions. These findings orientated our modelling choices in the building an agent-based model for LUCC simulation (SMASH - Spatialized Multi-Agent System of landscape colonization by ASH). We discuss our method and results with reference to topical issues in interdisciplinary research into the sustainability of multifunctional landscapes

Applying an integrated landscape characterization and evaluation tool to small islands (Pico, Azores, Portugal)

Each landscape is determined and can be characterised by two types of environmental factors: stable biophysical characteristics and manageable land use patterns. The consideration of both these characterisation domains allows the definition of a homogeneous system of reference (the stable characteristics) with which every possible land use pattern can be compared through the use of common evaluation algorithms. The Integrated Landscape Assessment (ILA) concept builds a framework for data retrieval and evaluation processing that maximizes the following advantages: through the use of a stable reference system, it allows the comparative simulation of different land use scenarios, as well as the permanent availability of the same reference system, independently from the intensity of land use changes throughout the years. It also allows the use of different evaluation algorithms according to different evaluation contexts or paradigms, without having to repeat or adapt the characterisation process. The present paper illustrates the basic concepts on which ILA is based and developed as well as its application to ecological planning and systematic conservation planning in the Pico Island (Azores Archipelago)

Conservation strategies for island - the "Park Island" of Pico (Azores)

É apresentado o conceito de Parque ilha e desenvolvido uma metodologia de caracterização e avaliação dos sistemas ecológicos em contexto insula

Climate Change and Land Management Impact Rangeland Condition and Sage-Grouse Habitat in Southeastern Oregon

Contemporary pressures on sagebrush steppe from climate change, exotic species, wildfire, and land use change threaten rangeland species such as the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus). To effectively manage sagebrush steppe landscapes for long-term goals, managers need information about the potential impacts of climate change, disturbances, and management activities. We integrated information from a dynamic global vegetation model, a sage-grouse habitat climate envelope model, and a state-and-transition simulation model to project broad-scale vegetation dynamics and potential sage-grouse habitat across 23.5 million acres in southeastern Oregon. We evaluated four climate scenarios, including continuing current climate and three scenarios of global climate change, and three management scenarios, including no management, current management and a sage-grouse habitat restoration scenario. All climate change scenarios projected expansion of moist shrub steppe and contraction of dry shrub steppe, but climate scenarios varied widely in the projected extent of xeric shrub steppe, where hot, dry summer conditions are unfavorable for sage-grouse. Wildfire increased by 26% over the century under current climate due to exotic grass encroachment, and by two- to four-fold across all climate change scenarios as extreme fire years became more frequent. Exotic grasses rapidly expanded in all scenarios as large areas of the landscape initially in semi-degraded condition converted to exotic-dominated systems. Due to the combination of exotic grass invasion, juniper encroachment, and climatic unsuitability for sage-grouse, projected sage-grouse habitat declined in the first several decades, but increased in area under the three climate change scenarios later in the century, as moist shrub steppe increased and rangeland condition improved. Management activities in the model were generally unsuccessful in controlling exotic grass invasion but were effective in slowing woodland expansion. Current levels of restoration treatments were insufficient to prevent some juniper expansion, but increased treatment rates under the restoration scenario maintained juniper near initial levels in priority treatment areas. Our simulations indicate that climate change may have both positive and negative implications for maintaining sage-grouse habitat

A Review on Fuzzy - AHP technique in Environmental Impact Assessment of Construction Projects, India

There are several countries today using procedures for Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is based on a series of mathematical techniques which attempt to localize, describe and assess the positive and negative effects that any human activity has on our environment, generally causing it to deteriorate. The environmental impact assessment (EIA) of projects requires the evaluation of the effects of very diverse actions on a number of different environmental factors, the uncertainty and inaccuracy being inherent in the process of allocating values to environmental impacts carried out by a panel of experts, stakeholders and affected population. The application of the fuzzy Logic and AHP technique can be helpful in identification of the risk associated with construction or developing project and improves the study of EIA. Fuzzy is one of the characteristics of human thoughts for which fuzzy sets theory is an effective tool for fuzziness. A fuzzy logic knowledge-based approach can be used for the environmental impact assessment study of the different construction projects. The review article highlights the role of Fuzzy AHP logic method in EIA of different construction projects, fuzzy logic modeling - software for fuzzy EIA, fuzzy numbers and steps of fuzzy methods as well as reveals that how fuzziness can be determined by applying fuzzy logic method in construction projects

Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape

While ecosystem services and climate change are often examined independently, quantitative assessments integrating these fields are needed to inform future land management decisions. Using climate-informed state-and-transition simulations, we examined projected trends and trade-offs for a suite of ecosystem services under four climate change scenarios and two management scenarios (active management emphasizing fuel treatments and no management other than fire suppression) in a fire-prone landscape of dry and moist mixed-conifer forests in central Oregon, USA. Focal ecosystem services included fire potential (regulating service), timber volume (provisioning service), and potential wildlife habitat (supporting service). Projections without climate change suggested active management in dry mixed-conifer forests would create more open forest structures, reduce crown fire potential, and maintain timber stocks, while in moist mixed-conifer forests, active management would reduce crown fire potential but at the expense of timber stocks. When climate change was considered, however, trends in most ecosystem services changed substantially, with large increases in wildfire area predominating broad-scale trends in outputs, regardless of management approach (e.g., strong declines in timber stocks and habitat for closed-forest wildlife species). Active management still had an influence under a changing climate, but as a moderator of the strong climate-driven trends rather than being a principal driver of ecosystem service outputs. These results suggest projections of future ecosystem services that do not consider climate change may result in unrealistic expectations of benefits

Discordant Data and Interpretation of Results from Wildlife Habitat Models

Wildlife habitat management is an important part of natural resource management. As a result, there are a large number of models and tools for wildlife habitat assessment. A consequence of the many assessment tools is inconsistency when comparing results between tools, which may lead to potential confusion management decisions. Our objective was to compare results from two wildlife habitat models – one being relatively coarse (HUC5) scale and not spatially dynamic and the other being finer scale spatial data based on a 30 m spatial resolution –for habitat assessment of three species across the West Cascades of Oregon: Northern spotted owl, pileated woodpecker, and western bluebird. The coarse-scale model predicted more habitat for the two specialist species (owl and bluebird), whereas the fine-scale model predicted more habitat for the generalist (woodpecker). Spatial evaluation of fine-scale models suggested habitat pattern that was not revealed by coarse-scale models. Differences in model assumptions, variables used, and flexibility of variable treatment account for differences in model performance. These findings suggest that cautious interpretation of results is needed given the constraints of each model. Coarse-scale models may help prioritize management treatments across space, but further fine-scale and site-specific analyses enhance information needed for making habitat management decisions

Cross-sectoral resource management: How forest management alternatives affect the provision of biomass and other ecosystem services

Integrated forest management is faced with the challenge that the contribution of forests to economic and ecological planning targets must be assessed in a socio-ecological system context. This paper introduces a way to model spatio-temporal dynamics of biomass production at a regional scale in order to derive land use strategies that enhance biomass provision and avoid trade-offs for other ecosystem services. The software platform GISCAME was employed to bridge the gap between local land management decisions and regional planning by linking growth and yield models with an integrative mesoscale modeling and assessment approach. The model region is located in Saxony, Germany. Five scenarios were simulated, which aimed at testing different alternatives for adapted land use in the context of climate change and increasing biomass demand. The results showed, for example, that forest conversion towards climate-change-adapted forest types had positive effects on ecological integrity and landscape aesthetics. In contrast, negative impacts on landscape aesthetics must be expected if agricultural sites were converted into short rotation coppices. Uncertainties with stem from assumptions regarding growth and yield models were discussed. Future developmental steps which consider, for example, accessibility of the resources were identified

Development and Validation of a Landscape Metrics Based Approach for Standardized Landscape Assessment Considering Spatial Patterns

The presented dissertation entitled „Development and Validation of a Landscape Metrics Based Approach for Standardized Landscape Assessment Considering Spatial Patterns” addresses three main questions: I. Which ecosystem services depend on landscape structure? II. How can landscape metrics be used to achieve a standardized routine for assessing the impact of landscape structure on the hereon dependent ecosystem services? III. How can regional planning benefit from the consideration of landscape structural effects on the provision of ecosystem services? The PhD study was carried out in the context of the Climate Change adaptation project REGKLAM (funding code 01 LR 0802). The work package “Land Use” was conducted at the Institute of Soil Science and Site Ecology of the TU Dresden under the direction of Prof. Dr. Makeschin. The PhD study took place in the framework of a sub-work package of it, which was called “Integrated Land Use Assessment”. The aim of this sub-work package was the evaluation of Climate Change adaptation strategies at the landscape scale in a cross-sectoral manner. The ecosystem services concept was chosen as methodological framework for this purpose. Particular motivation of this PhD study was that landscape structural aspects are often not sufficiently considered in commonly used ecosystem services assessment approaches. A standardized assessment procedure regarding the impact of the composition and configuration of land use/ land cover types is not yet existent in contemporary planning approaches, neither in strategic environmental assessment. In my thesis, I developed in the period from 2010 to 2014 a methodological basis which addresses this challenge. My thesis was realized as cumulative dissertation, which consists of three articles. These articles are published in peer-reviewed, ISI-listed international journals, whereas the third article still is in press. The short introduction in chapter one gives information on the motivation and the structure of the thesis. In chapter two, the research hypothesis is formulated and scope and objectives are explained. Chapter three gives an overview of the history of landscape metrics, the state-of-the-art, and current research in topic. In chapter four, the model region, focus areas, and the methodological basis are described. The fifth chapter summarizes results of the three articles (Frank et al. 2012, 2013, in press). Discussions in chapter six critically reflect the methodology and identify limitations, strengths, and its contribution to regional planning and to decision-making. Furthermore, some suggestions for extending the approach to other ecosystem services, especially regulating services, are made and perspectives towards different research questions are shown. Chapter seven summarizes the main outcomes of the PhD study. The central output of the dissertation is a module of GISCAME, a land use change impact assessment platform for supporting regional planning. The landscape metrics based ecosystem services assessment approach facilitates calculation, combination, and interpretation of a choice of landscape metrics and, hence, the evaluation of the impact of composition and configuration of land use patterns on ecosystem services. I selected eleven focus areas in the planning region “Upper Elbe Valley/Eastern Ore Mountains” to demonstrate the application and validation of the landscape metrics based approach that I propose in my dissertation. With these use cases, I show that the landscape structure significantly influences the provision of the ecosystem services ecological integrity and landscape aesthetics. Within the first use case I could demonstrate that the afforestation planning can be enhanced by including landscape metrics in the planning process. Actual priority areas for afforestation do not contribute to ecological integrity at the regional scale. Landscape fragmentation, habitat connectivity, and landscape diversity must be taken into account in order to identify most efficient priority areas for afforestation in terms of enhancing ecological integrity. The second use case focused on the question, how landscape structure influences scenic beauty. By means of a survey, I performed a comparison between the landscape metrics based approach and landscape perception of 153 respondents. This test underpinned my assumption that a landscape metrics based routine allows conclusions on the value of landscape aesthetics. The third use case gives practical advice in the current planning challenge about how to enhance water erosion protection planning in the context of Climate Change. Here, I demonstrated that not only land use change in preferential water erosion paths, but especially the change of management strategies combined with an improvement of landscape structure have the capacity to reduce water erosion potential by 92 %. The results show that it is of great importance to consider landscape structural aspects in current and future regional planning questions because additional, relevant planning information becomes tangible. The comparison of the presented method with other landscape metrics based approaches for ecosystem services assessment shows that the interpretation of the landscape metric values in the GISCAME platform module goes one step further towards usability for planning support: its transparency, spatial transferability, and flexibility are the main strengths of the approach. However, there is a clear need to involve the impact of landscape structure aspects also regarding other ecosystem services.:Contents Contents I List of Figures III List of Tables IV Summary V 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Motivation 1 1.2. Structure and strategy 1 2. Scope and objectives 3 3. Background and context 5 4. Methods 8 4.1. Model region and focus areas 8 4.2. Assessment framework: GISCAME 9 4.3. Challenge of standardization 10 4.4. Approach for assessing biotope connectivity 13 5. Results 15 5.1. Assessment of ecological integrity: Frank, S., Fürst, C., Koschke, L., and Makeschin, F. 2012. A contribution towards a transfer of the ecosystem service concept to landscape planning using landscape metrics. Ecological Indicators 21: 30-38. 15 5.2. Relationship of structure and ecosystem service: Frank, S., Fürst, C., Koschke, L., Witt, A., and Makeschin, F. 2013. Assessment of landscape aesthetics-Validation of a landscape metrics-based assessment by visual estimation of the scenic beauty. Ecological Indicators 32: 222-231 17 5.3. Extended scope of application in current planning questions: Frank, S., Fürst, C., Witt, A., Koschke, L., and Makeschin, F. in press. Making use of the ecosystem services concept in regional planning - trade-offs from reducing water erosion. Landscape Ecology. DOI: 10.1007/s10980-014-9992-3. 18 6. Discussion 20 6.1. Critical reflection of the methods 20 6.2. Challenge of validation 21 6.3. Supporting decision-making and planning 22 6.4. Outlook 23 6.4.1. Extension of the LM set and assessment criteria 23 6.4.2. Extension by consideration of further ecosystem services and different research fields 23 6.5. Proposal for enhancement of practice relevancy of LMs 24 7. Concluding remark 26 References 27 Appendices 33Die vorgelegte Dissertation mit dem Titel „Entwicklung und Validierung eines auf Landschaftsstrukturmaßen basierten Ansatzes zur standardisierten Landschaftsbewertung unter Berücksichtigung räumlicher Muster“ behandelt die drei Hauptfragen I. Welche Ökosystemdienstleistungen hängen von der Landschaftsstruktur ab? II. Wie können Landschaftsstrukturmaße genutzt werden, um ein standardisiertes Bewertungsverfahren dieser abhängigen Ökosystemdienstleistungen zu ermöglichen? III. Wie kann die Regionalplanung von der Berücksichtigung der Effekte von Landschaftsstruktur auf die Bereitstellung von Ökosystemdienstleistungen profitieren? Die Promotions-Studie wurde im Rahmen des Klimawandel-Anpassungs-Projektes REGKLAM (Förderkennzeichen 01 LR 0802) durchgeführt. Das Arbeitspaket „Landnutzung“ wurde am Institut für Bodenkunde und Standortslehre der TU Dresden unter Leitung von Prof. Dr. Makeschin bearbeitet. Die Promotions-Studie erfolgte im Rahmen des Teil-Arbeitstaktes „Integrierte Landnutzungsbewertung“. Ziel dieses Teil-Arbeitspaketes war die Bewertung von Klimawandel-Anpassungs-Strategien auf Landschaftsebene in Sektor-übergreifender Weise. Zu diesem Zweck wurde das Ökosystemdienstleistungskonzept als methodischer Rahmen gewählt. Der spezielle Anlass dieser Promotion-Studie war, dass landschaftsstrukturelle Aspekte in gebräuchlichen Ökosystemdienstleistungs-Bewertungsansätzen oft ungenügend berücksichtigt sind. Ein standardisiertes Bewertungsverfahren des Einflusses von Zusammensetzung und Anordnung von Landnutzungs-/Landbedeckungstypen existiert weder in aktuellen Planungsansätzen noch in Umweltverträglichkeitsprüfungen. In meiner Dissertation entwickelte ich im Zeitraum von 2010 bis 2014 eine methodische Grundlage, welche diese Herausforderung angeht. Meine Promotion wurde als kumulative Dissertation, welche aus drei Artikeln besteht, umgesetzt. Diese Artikel wurden in begutachteten, ISI-gelisteten, internationalen Journalen veröffentlicht, wobei sich das dritte aktuell im Druck befindet. Die kurze Einleitung im ersten Kapitel informiert über die Beweggründe und die Struktur der Dissertation. Im zweiten Kapitel ist die Forschungshypothese formuliert sowie Geltungsbereich und Zeile erläutert. Kapitel drei gibt einen Überblick über die Geschichte der Landschaftsstrukturmaße, den aktuellen Forschungsstand und aktuelle Forschungsfelder. Im vierten Kapitel sind die Modellregion, die Fallstudien-Gebiete, sowie methodische Grundlagen beschrieben. Das fünfte Kapitel fasst die Ergebnisse der drei Artikel (Frank et al. 2012, 2013, im Druck) zusammen. Diskussionen in Kapitel sechs reflektieren die Methodik kritisch und identifizieren ihre Grenzen und Stärken sowie den Beitrag der Ergebnisse zu Regionalplanung und Entscheidungsfindung. Darüber hinaus werden einige Empfehlungen zur Erweiterung des Ansatzes für weitere Ökosystemdienstleistungen, insbesondere regulierende Leistungen, getroffen und Perspektiven zur Anwendung für andere Forschungsfragen werden aufgezeigt. Kapitel sieben fasst schließlich die wichtigsten Ergebnisse der Promotions-Studie zusammen. Das zentrale Ergebnis der Dissertation ist eine Erweiterung des Entscheidungsunterstützungs-Werkzeuges GISCAME. Der auf Landschaftsstrukturmaßen basierende Ökosystemdienstleistungs-Bewertungsansatz ermöglicht die Berechnung, Kombination und Interpretation einer Auswahl von Landschaftsstrukturmaßen und somit die Bewertung des Einflusses von Zusammensetzung und Anordnung von Landnutzungsmustern auf Ökosystemdienstleistungen. Ich wählte elf Fokusgebiete in der Planungsregion „Oberes Elbtal/Osterzgebirge“ aus um die Anwendung und Validierung des auf Landschaftsstrukturmaßen basierenden Ansatzes, den ich in der Dissertation vorschlage, zu demonstrieren. Mittels dieser Anwendungsfälle zeige ich, dass die Landschaftsstruktur die Bereitstellung der Ökosystemdienstleistungen ökologische Integrität und Landschaftsästhetik erheblich beeinflusst. Im ersten Anwendungsfall konnte ich zeigen, dass die Aufforstungsplanung durch die Einbeziehung von Landschaftsstrukturmaßen in den Planungsprozess verbessert werden kann. Vorranggebiete für Waldmehrung in ihrer derzeitigen Form tragen nicht zur ökologischen Integrität auf der regionalen Ebene bei. Landschaftszerschneidung, Biotopverbund und Landschaftsdiversität müssen vermehrt beachtet werden, um Vorranggebiete für Waldmehrung für eine Verbesserung der ökologischen Intaktheit effizienter anzuordnen. Der zweite Anwendungsfall richtete sich auf die Frage, wie Landschaftsstruktur die Landschaftsästhetik beeinflusst. Mithilfe einer Befragung verglich ich den auf Landschaftsstrukurmaßen basierenden Ansatz mit der Landschaftswahrnehmung von 153 Befragten. Dieser Test untermauerte meine Annahme, dass das auf Landschaftsstrukurmaßen basierende Vorgehen Rückschlüsse auf den ästhetischen Wert einer Landschaft zulässt. Der dritte Anwendungsfall gibt praktische Hinweise bezüglich der aktuellen Planungs-Herausforderung, wie Erosionsschutzplanung im Kontext des Klimawandels verbesset werden kann. In diesem Fall konnte ich zeigen, dass nicht nur Landnutzungsänderungen in präferenziellen Abflussbahnen, sondern insbesondere eine Änderung der Bodenbearbeitungsstrategie in Kombination mit verbesserter Landschaftsstruktur das Potential hat, die potentielle Wassererosion um 92 % zu reduzieren. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass es von großer Bedeutung ist, landschaftsstrukturelle Aspekte in aktuellen und zukünftigen Planungsfragen zu berücksichtigen, da somit zusätzliche, maßgebliche Informationen greifbar werden. Der Vergleich der vorliegenden Methodik mit anderen Ansätzen, die Landschaftsstrukturmaße nutzen um Ökosystemdienstleistungen zu bewerten, zeigt, dass die automatisierte Interpretation der Landschaftsstrukturmaße mittels des neuen Moduls in GISCAME einen Schritt in Richtung Nützlichkeit für Planungsunterstützung geht: Transparenz, räumliche Übertragbarkeit und Flexibilität sind weitere Stärken des Ansatzes. Jedoch gibt es eindeutig den Bedarf den Einfluss von Landschaftsstruktur auf weitere Ökosystemdienstleistungen einzubeziehen.:Contents Contents I List of Figures III List of Tables IV Summary V 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Motivation 1 1.2. Structure and strategy 1 2. Scope and objectives 3 3. Background and context 5 4. Methods 8 4.1. Model region and focus areas 8 4.2. Assessment framework: GISCAME 9 4.3. Challenge of standardization 10 4.4. Approach for assessing biotope connectivity 13 5. Results 15 5.1. Assessment of ecological integrity: Frank, S., Fürst, C., Koschke, L., and Makeschin, F. 2012. A contribution towards a transfer of the ecosystem service concept to landscape planning using landscape metrics. Ecological Indicators 21: 30-38. 15 5.2. Relationship of structure and ecosystem service: Frank, S., Fürst, C., Koschke, L., Witt, A., and Makeschin, F. 2013. Assessment of landscape aesthetics-Validation of a landscape metrics-based assessment by visual estimation of the scenic beauty. Ecological Indicators 32: 222-231 17 5.3. Extended scope of application in current planning questions: Frank, S., Fürst, C., Witt, A., Koschke, L., and Makeschin, F. in press. Making use of the ecosystem services concept in regional planning - trade-offs from reducing water erosion. Landscape Ecology. DOI: 10.1007/s10980-014-9992-3. 18 6. Discussion 20 6.1. Critical reflection of the methods 20 6.2. Challenge of validation 21 6.3. Supporting decision-making and planning 22 6.4. Outlook 23 6.4.1. Extension of the LM set and assessment criteria 23 6.4.2. Extension by consideration of further ecosystem services and different research fields 23 6.5. Proposal for enhancement of practice relevancy of LMs 24 7. Concluding remark 26 References 27 Appendices 3