Performance-based health monitoring, diagnostics and prognostics for condition-based maintenance of gas turbines: A review

With the privatization and intense competition that characterize the volatile energy sector, the gas turbine industry currently faces new challenges of increasing operational flexibility, reducing operating costs, improving reliability and availability while mitigating the environmental impact. In this complex, changing sector, the gas turbine community could address a set of these challenges by further development of high fidelity, more accurate and computationally efficient engine health assessment, diagnostic and prognostic systems. Recent studies have shown that engine gas-path performance monitoring still remains the cornerstone for making informed decisions in operation and maintenance of gas turbines. This paper offers a systematic review of recently developed engine performance monitoring, diagnostic and prognostic techniques. The inception of performance monitoring and its evolution over time, techniques used to establish a high-quality dataset using engine model performance adaptation, and effects of computationally intelligent techniques on promoting the implementation of engine fault diagnosis are reviewed. Moreover, recent developments in prognostics techniques designed to enhance the maintenance decision-making scheme and main causes of gas turbine performance deterioration are discussed to facilitate the fault identification module. The article aims to organize, evaluate and identify patterns and trends in the literature as well as recognize research gaps and recommend new research areas in the field of gas turbine performance-based monitoring. The presented insightful concepts provide experts, students or novice researchers and decision-makers working in the area of gas turbine engines with the state of the art for performance-based condition monitoring

A novel framework for predicting patients at risk of readmission

Uncertainty in decision-making for patients’ risk of re-admission arises due to non-uniform data and lack of knowledge in health system variables. The knowledge of the impact of risk factors will provide clinicians better decision-making and in reducing the number of patients admitted to the hospital. Traditional approaches are not capable to account for the uncertain nature of risk of hospital re-admissions. More problems arise due to large amount of uncertain information. Patients can be at high, medium or low risk of re-admission, and these strata have ill-defined boundaries. We believe that our model that adapts fuzzy regression method will start a novel approach to handle uncertain data, uncertain relationships between health system variables and the risk of re-admission. Because of nature of ill-defined boundaries of risk bands, this approach does allow the clinicians to target individuals at boundaries. Targeting individuals at boundaries and providing them proper care may provide some ability to move patients from high risk to low risk band. In developing this algorithm, we aimed to help potential users to assess the patients for various risk score thresholds and avoid readmission of high risk patients with proper interventions. A model for predicting patients at high risk of re-admission will enable interventions to be targeted before costs have been incurred and health status have deteriorated. A risk score cut off level would flag patients and result in net savings where intervention costs are much higher per patient. Preventing hospital re-admissions is important for patients, and our algorithm may also impact hospital income

Methods to Improve the Prediction Accuracy and Performance of Ensemble Models

The application of ensemble predictive models has been an important research area in predicting medical diagnostics, engineering diagnostics, and other related smart devices and related technologies. Most of the current predictive models are complex and not reliable despite numerous efforts in the past by the research community. The performance accuracy of the predictive models have not always been realised due to many factors such as complexity and class imbalance. Therefore there is a need to improve the predictive accuracy of current ensemble models and to enhance their applications and reliability and non-visual predictive tools. The research work presented in this thesis has adopted a pragmatic phased approach to propose and develop new ensemble models using multiple methods and validated the methods through rigorous testing and implementation in different phases. The first phase comprises of empirical investigations on standalone and ensemble algorithms that were carried out to ascertain their performance effects on complexity and simplicity of the classifiers. The second phase comprises of an improved ensemble model based on the integration of Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), Radial Basis Function Network (RBFN) and AdaBoost algorithms. The third phase comprises of an extended model based on early stop concepts, AdaBoost algorithm, and statistical performance of the training samples to minimize overfitting performance of the proposed model. The fourth phase comprises of an enhanced analytical multivariate logistic regression predictive model developed to minimize the complexity and improve prediction accuracy of logistic regression model. To facilitate the practical application of the proposed models; an ensemble non-invasive analytical tool is proposed and developed. The tool links the gap between theoretical concepts and practical application of theories to predict breast cancer survivability. The empirical findings suggested that: (1) increasing the complexity and topology of algorithms does not necessarily lead to a better algorithmic performance, (2) boosting by resampling performs slightly better than boosting by reweighting, (3) the prediction accuracy of the proposed ensemble EKF-RBFN-AdaBoost model performed better than several established ensemble models, (4) the proposed early stopped model converges faster and minimizes overfitting better compare with other models, (5) the proposed multivariate logistic regression concept minimizes the complexity models (6) the performance of the proposed analytical non-invasive tool performed comparatively better than many of the benchmark analytical tools used in predicting breast cancers and diabetics ailments. The research contributions to ensemble practice are: (1) the integration and development of EKF, RBFN and AdaBoost algorithms as an ensemble model, (2) the development and validation of ensemble model based on early stop concepts, AdaBoost, and statistical concepts of the training samples, (3) the development and validation of predictive logistic regression model based on breast cancer, and (4) the development and validation of a non-invasive breast cancer analytic tools based on the proposed and developed predictive models in this thesis. To validate prediction accuracy of ensemble models, in this thesis the proposed models were applied in modelling breast cancer survivability and diabetics’ diagnostic tasks. In comparison with other established models the simulation results of the models showed improved predictive accuracy. The research outlines the benefits of the proposed models, whilst proposes new directions for future work that could further extend and improve the proposed models discussed in this thesis

A Predictive Fuzzy-Neural Autopilot for the Guidance of Small Motorised Marine Craft

This thesis investigates the design and evaluation of a control system, that is able to adapt quickly to changes in environment and steering characteristics. This type of controller is particularly suited for applications with wide-ranging working conditions such as those experienced by small motorised craft. A small motorised craft is assumed to be highly agile and prone to disturbances, being thrown off-course very easily when travelling at high speed 'but rather heavy and sluggish at low speeds. Unlike large vessels, the steering characteristics of the craft will change tremendously with a change in forward speed. Any new design of autopilot needs to be to compensate for these changes in dynamic characteristics to maintain near optimal levels of performance. This study identities the problems that need to be overcome and the variables involved. A self-organising fuzzy logic controller is developed and tested in simulation. This type of controller learns on-line but has certain performance limitations. The major original contribution of this research investigation is the development of an improved self-adaptive and predictive control concept, the Predictive Self-organising Fuzzy Logic Controller (PSoFLC). The novel feature of the control algorithm is that is uses a neural network as a predictive simulator of the boat's future response and this network is then incorporated into the control loop to improve the course changing, as well as course keeping capabilities of the autopilot investigated. The autopilot is tested in simulation to validate the working principle of the concept and to demonstrate the self-tuning of the control parameters. Further work is required to establish the suitability of the proposed novel concept to other control

Predicting the Future

Due to the increased capabilities of microprocessors and the advent of graphics processing units (GPUs) in recent decades, the use of machine learning methodologies has become popular in many fields of science and technology. This fact, together with the availability of large amounts of information, has meant that machine learning and Big Data have an important presence in the field of Energy. This Special Issue entitled “Predicting the Future—Big Data and Machine Learning” is focused on applications of machine learning methodologies in the field of energy. Topics include but are not limited to the following: big data architectures of power supply systems, energy-saving and efficiency models, environmental effects of energy consumption, prediction of occupational health and safety outcomes in the energy industry, price forecast prediction of raw materials, and energy management of smart buildings

A fuzzy logic approach to localisation in wireless local area networks

This thesis examines the use and value of fuzzy sets, fuzzy logic and fuzzy inference in wireless positioning systems and solutions. Various fuzzy-related techniques and methodologies are reviewed and investigated, including a comprehensive review of fuzzy-based positioning and localisation systems. The thesis is aimed at the development of a novel positioning technique which enhances well-known multi-nearest-neighbour (kNN) and fingerprinting algorithms with received signal strength (RSS) measurements. A fuzzy inference system is put forward for the generation of weightings for selected nearest-neighbours and the elimination of outliers. In this study, Monte Carlo simulations of a proposed multivariable fuzzy localisation (MVFL) system showed a significant improvement in the root mean square error (RMSE) in position estimation, compared with well-known localisation algorithms. The simulation outcomes were confirmed empirically in laboratory tests under various scenarios. The proposed technique uses available indoor wireless local area network (WLAN) infrastructure and requires no additional hardware or modification to the network, nor any active user participation. The thesis aims to benefit practitioners and academic researchers of system positioning

Aeronautical Engineering: A continuing bibliography, supplement 120

This bibliography contains abstracts for 297 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in February 1980

An Informed Long-term Forecasting Method for Electrical Distribution Network Operators

Northern Powergrid (NPG) is an electrical distribution network operator in the UK servicing Yorkshire and the Northeast of England. Currently they produce long-term eight year forecasts for each substation on the network with an emphasis on an annual maximum demand (MD) figure. The current method used by NPG is thought to oversimplify the problem and does not give enough insight into changes in substation demand. In order to inform their current forecast, the novel CL-ANFIS method uses a combination of machine learning techniques for both forecasting and general insight to the drivers of demand. Also introduced here are novel techniques for determination of MD at NPG and methods for handling load transfer periods. In order to address a problem of this size, a twofold approach is taken. One is to address the drivers of demand such as weather, economic or demographic data sets through the use of statistics and machine learning techniques. The other is to address the long-term forecasting problem with a transparent technique that can aid in explaining the drivers of demand on any given substation. Techniques used include cluster analysis on demographic data sets in addition to ANFIS as a forecasting method. The results of the novel CL-ANFIS method are compared against the current NPG forecast and show how more insight into substation demand profiles can drive the decision-making process. This is done through a combination of using a tailored customer database for NPG and leveraging the information provided by the membership functions of ANFIS

Machine Learning Based Data Driven Modelling of Time Series of Power Plant Data

Accurate modeling and simulation of data collected from a power plant system are important factors in the strategic planning and maintenance of the unit. Several non-linearities and multivariable couplings are associated with real-world plants. Therefore, it becomes almost impossible to model the system using conventional mathematical equations. Statistical models such as ARIMA, ARMA are potential solutions but their linear nature cannot very well t a system with non-linear, multivariate time series data. Recently, deep learning methods such as Arti cial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been extensively applied for time series forecasting. ANNs in contrast to stochastic models such as ARIMA can uncover the non-linearities present underneath the data. In this thesis, we analyze the real-time temperature data obtained from a nuclear power plant, and discover the patterns and characteristics of the sensory data. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) followed by Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) is used to extract features from the time series data; k-means clustering is applied to label the data instances. Finite state machine representation formulated from the clustered data is then used to model the behaviour of nuclear power plants using system states and state transitions. Dependent and independent parameters of the system are de ned based on co-relation among themselves. Various forecasting models are then applied over multivariate time-stamped data. We discuss thoroughly the implementation of a key architecture of neural networks, Long Short-Term Neural Networks (LSTMs). LSTM can capture nonlinear relationships in a dynamic system using its memory connections. This further aids them to counter the problem of back-propagated error decay through memory blocks. Poly-regression is applied to represent the working of the plant by de ning an association between independent and dependent parameters. This representation is then used to forecast dependent variates based on the observed values of independent variates. Principle of sensitivity analysis is used for optimisation of number of parameters used for predicting. It helps in making a compromise between number of parameters used and level of accuracy achieved in forecasting. The objective of this thesis is to examine the feasibility of the above-mentioned forecasting techniques in the modeling of a complex time series of data, and predicting system parameters such as Reactor Temperature and Linear Power based on past information. It also carries out a comparative analysis of forecasts obtained in each approach