Aggregation and Control of Populations of Thermostatically Controlled Loads by Formal Abstractions

This work discusses a two-step procedure, based on formal abstractions, to generate a finite-space stochastic dynamical model as an aggregation of the continuous temperature dynamics of a homogeneous population of Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCL). The temperature of a single TCL is described by a stochastic difference equation and the TCL status (ON, OFF) by a deterministic switching mechanism. The procedure is formal as it allows the exact quantification of the error introduced by the abstraction -- as such it builds and improves on a known, earlier approximation technique in the literature. Further, the contribution discusses the extension to the case of a heterogeneous population of TCL by means of two approaches resulting in the notion of approximate abstractions. It moreover investigates the problem of global (population-level) regulation and load balancing for the case of TCL that are dependent on a control input. The procedure is tested on a case study and benchmarked against the mentioned alternative approach in the literature.Comment: 40 pages, 21 figures; the paper generalizes the result of conference publication: S. Esmaeil Zadeh Soudjani and A. Abate, "Aggregation of Thermostatically Controlled Loads by Formal Abstractions," Proceedings of the European Control Conference 2013, pp. 4232-4237. version 2: added references for section

Use of Bridging Strategy between the Ensemble Kalman Filter and Particle Filter for the Measurements with Various Quasi-Gaussian Noise

Filtering and estimation are two important tools of engineering. Whenever the state of the system needs to be estimated from the noisy sensor measurements, some kind of state estimator is used. If the dynamics of the system and observation model are linear under Gaussian conditions, the root mean squared error can be computed using the Kalman Filter. But practically, noise frequently enters the system as not strictly Gaussian. Therefore, the Kalman Filter does not necessarily provide the better estimate. Hence the estimation of the nonlinear system under non-Gaussian or quasi-Gaussian noise is of an acute interest. There are many versions of the Kalman filter such as the Extended Kalman filter, the Unscented Kalman filter, the Ensemble Kalman filter, the Particle filter, etc., each having their own disadvantages. In this thesis work I used a bridging strategy between the Ensemble Kalman filter and Particle filter called an Ensemble Kalman Particle filter. This filter works well in nonlinear system and non-Gaussian measurements as well. I analyzed this filter using MATLAB simulation and also applied Gaussian Noise, non-zero mean Gaussian Noise, quasi-Gaussian noise (with drift), random walk and Laplacian Noise. I applied these noises and compared the performances of the Particle filter and the Ensemble Kalman Particle filter in the presence of linear and nonlinear observations which leads to the conclusion that the Ensemble Kalman Particle filter yields the minimum error estimate. I also found the optimum value for the tuning parameter which is used to bridge the two filters using Monte Carlo Simulation

Belief Space Scheduling

This thesis develops the belief space scheduling framework for scheduling under uncertainty in Stochastic Collection and Replenishment (SCAR) scenarios. SCAR scenarios involve the transportation of a resource such as fuel to agents operating in the field. Key characteristics of this scenario are persistent operation of the agents, and consideration of uncertainty. Belief space scheduling performs optimisation on probability distributions describing the state of the system. It consists of three major components---estimation of the current system state given uncertain sensor readings, prediction of the future state given a schedule of tasks, and optimisation of the schedule of the replenishing agents. The state estimation problem is complicated by a number of constraints that act on the state. A novel extension of the truncated Kalman Filter is developed for soft constraints that have uncertainty described by a Gaussian distribution. This is shown to outperform existing estimation methods, striking a balance between the high uncertainty of methods that ignore the constraints and the overconfidence of methods that ignore the uncertainty of the constraints. To predict the future state of the system, a novel analytical, continuous-time framework is proposed. This framework uses multiple Gaussian approximations to propagate the probability distributions describing the system state into the future. It is compared with a Monte Carlo framework and is shown to provide similar discrimination performance while computing, in most cases, orders of magnitude faster. Finally, several branch and bound tree search methods are developed for the optimisation problem. These methods focus optimisation efforts on earlier tasks within a model predictive control-like framework. Combined with the estimation and prediction methods, these are shown to outperform existing approaches

Stiffness tensor estimation of anisotropic crystal using point contact method and unscented Kalman filter

The potential application of Lithium Niobate (LiNbO3) crystal is immense, specifically in the domain of metasurfaces and nano-resonators. However, the practical application of LiNbO3 is impeded due to unreliable experimental techniques and inaccurate inversion algorithms for material characterization. In the current research, material characterization of anisotropic crystal is proposed by exploring the wavefield evolution in the spatial and temporal domains. The presented framework has three major components: a physics-based mathematical model (Christoffel equation), a novel experimental technique, and an inversion algorithm based on Bayesian filtering. An experimental technique based on Coulomb coupling is devised to visualize the propagation of ultrasonic waves in an anisotropic crystal. The crystal is characterized by measuring the directional-dependent acoustic wave velocity from the spatial–temporal information of the wave propagation. The anisotropic constitutive properties of the crystal are estimated by exploring the wave velocity in the Bayesian filtering algorithm. The proposed algorithm is based on the probabilistic framework that integrates the experimental measurement in a physics-based mathematical model for optimal state prediction of stiffness tensor through the Bayesian filtering algorithm. In particular, we utilize the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) in conjunction with the plane-wave Eigen solution to estimate the constitutive parameters. In the presence of measurement uncertainties, the performance of the optimal prediction algorithm is illustrated by comparing the estimated parameter with the corresponding theoretical value. The comparison demonstrates that the proposed inversion algorithm is efficient and robust and performs satisfactorily even with significant measurement uncertainties

Robust recursive estimation in the presence of heavy-tailed observation noise

Includes bibliographical references (p. 33-41).Supported by the U.S. Army Research Office fellowship. ARO-DAAL03-86-G-0017 Supported by the U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research. AFOSR-85-0227 AFOSR-89-0276Irvin C. Schick and Sanjoy K. Mitter

Advanced multiparametric optimization and control studies for anaesthesia

Anaesthesia is a reversible pharmacological state of the patient where hypnosis, analgesia and muscle relaxation are guaranteed and maintained throughout the surgery. Analgesics block the sensation of pain; hypnotics produce unconsciousness, while muscle relaxants prevent unwanted movement of muscle tone. Controlling the depth of anaesthesia is a very challenging task, as one has to deal with nonlinearity, inter- and intra-patient variability, multivariable characteristics, variable time delays, dynamics dependent on the hypnotic agent, model analysis variability, agent and stability issues. The modelling and automatic control of anaesthesia is believed to (i) benefit the safety of the patient undergoing surgery as side-effects may be reduced by optimizing the drug infusion rates, and (ii) support anaesthetists during critical situations by automating the drug delivery systems. In this work we have developed several advanced explicit/multi-parametric model predictive (mp-MPC) control strategies for the control of depth of anaesthesia. State estimation techniques are developed and used simultaneously with mp-MPC strategies to estimate the state of each individual patient, in an attempt to overcome the challenges of inter- and intra- patient variability, and deal with possible unmeasurable noisy outputs. Strategies to deal with the nonlinearity have been also developed including local linearization, exact linearization as well as a piece-wise linearization of the Hill curve leading to a hybrid formulation of the patient model and thereby the development of multiparametric hybrid model predictive control methodology. To deal with the inter- and intra- patient variability, as well as the noise on the process output, several robust techniques and a multiparametric moving horizon estimation technique have been design and implemented. All the studies described in the thesis are performed on clinical data for a set of 12 patients who underwent general anaesthesia.Open Acces