The Contagion Effects of Repeated Activation in Social Networks

Demonstrations, protests, riots, and shifts in public opinion respond to the coordinating potential of communication networks. Digital technologies have turned interpersonal networks into massive, pervasive structures that constantly pulsate with information. Here, we propose a model that aims to analyze the contagion dynamics that emerge in networks when repeated activation is allowed, that is, when actors can engage recurrently in a collective effort. We analyze how the structure of communication networks impacts on the ability to coordinate actors, and we identify the conditions under which large-scale coordination is more likely to emerge.Comment: Submitted for publicatio

Network Structure, Efficiency, and Performance in WikiProjects

The internet has enabled collaborations at a scale never before possible, but the best practices for organizing such large collaborations are still not clear. Wikipedia is a visible and successful example of such a collaboration which might offer insight into what makes large-scale, decentralized collaborations successful. We analyze the relationship between the structural properties of WikiProject coeditor networks and the performance and efficiency of those projects. We confirm the existence of an overall performance-efficiency trade-off, while observing that some projects are higher than others in both performance and efficiency, suggesting the existence factors correlating positively with both. Namely, we find an association between low-degree coeditor networks and both high performance and high efficiency. We also confirm results seen in previous numerical and small-scale lab studies: higher performance with less skewed node distributions, and higher performance with shorter path lengths. We use agent-based models to explore possible mechanisms for degree-dependent performance and efficiency. We present a novel local-majority learning strategy designed to satisfy properties of real-world collaborations. The local-majority strategy as well as a localized conformity-based strategy both show degree-dependent performance and efficiency, but in opposite directions, suggesting that these factors depend on both network structure and learning strategy. Our results suggest possible benefits to decentralized collaborations made of smaller, more tightly-knit teams, and that these benefits may be modulated by the particular learning strategies in use.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, to appear in ICWSM 201

Coordination of Decisions in a Spatial Agent Model

For a binary choice problem, the spatial coordination of decisions in an agent community is investigated both analytically and by means of stochastic computer simulations. The individual decisions are based on different local information generated by the agents with a finite lifetime and disseminated in the system with a finite velocity. We derive critical parameters for the emergence of minorities and majorities of agents making opposite decisions and investigate their spatial organization. We find that dependent on two essential parameters describing the local impact and the spatial dissemination of information, either a definite stable minority/majority relation (single-attractor regime) or a broad range of possible values (multi-attractor regime) occurs. In the latter case, the outcome of the decision process becomes rather diverse and hard to predict, both with respect to the share of the majority and their spatial distribution. We further investigate how a dissemination of information on different time scales affects the outcome of the decision process. We find that a more ``efficient'' information exchange within a subpopulation provides a suitable way to stabilize their majority status and to reduce ``diversity'' and uncertainty in the decision process.Comment: submitted for publication in Physica A (31 pages incl. 17 multi-part figures

Extremism propagation in social networks with hubs

One aspect of opinion change that has been of academic interest is the impact of people with extreme opinions (extremists) on opinion dynamics. An agent-based model has been used to study the role of small-world social network topologies on general opinion change in the presence of extremists. It has been found that opinion convergence to a single extreme occurs only when the average number of network connections for each individual is extremely high. Here, we extend the model to examine the effect of positively skewed degree distributions, in addition to small-world structures, on the types of opinion convergence that occur in the presence of extremists. We also examine what happens when extremist opinions are located on the well-connected nodes (hubs) created by the positively skewed distribution. We find that a positively skewed network topology encourages opinion convergence on a single extreme under a wider range of conditions than topologies whose degree distributions were not skewed. The importance of social position for social influence is highlighted by the result that, when positive extremists are placed on hubs, all population convergence is to the positive extreme even when there are twice as many negative extremists. Thus, our results have shown the importance of considering a positively skewed degree distribution, and in particular network hubs and social position, when examining extremist transmission

Cooperation in the snowdrift game on directed small-world networks under self-questioning and noisy conditions

Cooperation in the evolutionary snowdrift game with a self-questioning updating mechanism is studied on annealed and quenched small-world networks with directed couplings. Around the payoff parameter value $r=0.5$, we find a size-invariant symmetrical cooperation effect. While generally suppressing cooperation for $r>0.5$ payoffs, rewired networks facilitated cooperative behavior for $r<0.5$. Fair amounts of noise were found to break the observed symmetry and further weaken cooperation at relatively large values of $r$. However, in the absence of noise, the self-questioning mechanism recovers symmetrical behavior and elevates altruism even under large-reward conditions. Our results suggest that an updating mechanism of this type is necessary to stabilize cooperation in a spatially structured environment which is otherwise detrimental to cooperative behavior, especially at high cost-to-benefit ratios. Additionally, we employ component and local stability analyses to better understand the nature of the manifested dynamics.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures, 1 tabl

A model of riots dynamics: shocks, diffusion and thresholds

We introduce and analyze several variants of a system of differential equations which model the dynamics of social outbursts, such as riots. The systems involve the coupling of an explicit variable representing the intensity of rioting activity and an underlying (implicit) field of social tension. Our models include the effects of exogenous and endogenous factors as well as various propagation mechanisms. From numerical and mathematical analysis of these models we show that the assumptions made on how different locations influence one another and how the tension in the system disperses play a major role on the qualitative behavior of bursts of social unrest. Furthermore, we analyze here various properties of these systems, such as the existence of traveling wave solutions, and formulate some new open mathematical problems which arise from our work

Instability and network effects in innovative markets

We consider a network of interacting agents and we model the process of choice on the adoption of a given innovative product by means of statistical-mechanics tools. The modelization allows us to focus on the effects of direct interactions among agents in establishing the success or failure of the product itself. Mimicking real systems, the whole population is divided into two sub-communities called, respectively, Innovators and Followers, where the former are assumed to display more influence power. We study in detail and via numerical simulations on a random graph two different scenarios: no-feedback interaction, where innovators are cohesive and not sensitively affected by the remaining population, and feedback interaction, where the influence of followers on innovators is non negligible. The outcomes are markedly different: in the former case, which corresponds to the creation of a niche in the market, Innovators are able to drive and polarize the whole market. In the latter case the behavior of the market cannot be definitely predicted and become unstable. In both cases we highlight the emergence of collective phenomena and we show how the final outcome, in terms of the number of buyers, is affected by the concentration of innovators and by the interaction strengths among agents.Comment: 20 pages, 6 figures. 7th workshop on "Dynamic Models in Economics and Finance" - MDEF2012 (COST Action IS1104), Urbino (2012

Simulating the Influence of Collaborative Networks on the Structure of Networks of Organizations, Employment Structure, and Organization Value

From the perspective of reindustrialization, it is important to understand the evolution of the structure of the network of organizations employment structure, and organization value. Understanding the potential influence of collaborative networks (CNs) on these aspects may lead to the development of appropriate economic policies. In this paper, we propose a theoretical approach to analysis this potential influence, based on a model of dynamic networked ecosystem of organizations encompassing collaboration relations among organization, employment mobility, and organization value. A large number of simulations has been performed to identify factors influencing the structure of the network of organizations employment structure, and organization value. The main findings are that 1) the higher the number of members of CNs, the better the clustering and the shorter the average path length among organizations; 2) the constitution of CNs does not affect neither the structure of the network of organizations, nor the employment structure and the organization value.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure, conference paper at the 14th IFIP Working Conference on Virtual Enterprises, PRO-VE'13, http://www.pro-ve.org

Causal inference for social network data

We describe semiparametric estimation and inference for causal effects using observational data from a single social network. Our asymptotic result is the first to allow for dependence of each observation on a growing number of other units as sample size increases. While previous methods have generally implicitly focused on one of two possible sources of dependence among social network observations, we allow for both dependence due to transmission of information across network ties, and for dependence due to latent similarities among nodes sharing ties. We describe estimation and inference for new causal effects that are specifically of interest in social network settings, such as interventions on network ties and network structure. Using our methods to reanalyze the Framingham Heart Study data used in one of the most influential and controversial causal analyses of social network data, we find that after accounting for network structure there is no evidence for the causal effects claimed in the original paper