Scalable Inference for Markov Processes with Intractable Likelihoods

Bayesian inference for Markov processes has become increasingly relevant in recent years. Problems of this type often have intractable likelihoods and prior knowledge about model rate parameters is often poor. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques can lead to exact inference in such models but in practice can suffer performance issues including long burn-in periods and poor mixing. On the other hand approximate Bayesian computation techniques can allow rapid exploration of a large parameter space but yield only approximate posterior distributions. Here we consider the combined use of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and MCMC techniques for improved computational efficiency while retaining exact inference on parallel hardware

Bayesian inference for dynamic transcriptional regulation; the Hes1 system as a case study.

Motivation: In this study we address the problem of estimating the parameters of regulatory networks and provide the first application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to experimental data. As a case study we consider a stochastic model of the Hes1 system expressed in terms of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to which rigorous likelihood methods of inference can be applied. When fitting continuous-time stochastic models to discretely observed time series the lengths of the sampling intervals are important, and much of our study addresses the problem when the data are sparse. Results: We estimate the parameters of an autoregulatory network providing results both for simulated and real experimental data from the Hes1 system. We develop an estimation algorithm using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques which are flexible enough to allow for the imputation of latent data on a finer time scale and the presence of prior information about parameters which may be informed from other experiments as well as additional measurement error. Availability: Supplementary information is submitted with the paper. Contact

Scalable and flexible inference framework for stochastic dynamic single-cell models

Understanding the inherited nature of how biological processes dynamically change over time and exhibit intra- and inter-individual variability, due to the different responses to environmental stimuli and when interacting with other processes, has been a major focus of systems biology. The rise of single-cell fluorescent microscopy has enabled the study of those phenomena. The analysis of single-cell data with mechanistic models offers an invaluable tool to describe dynamic cellular processes and to rationalise cell-to-cell variability within the population. However, extracting mechanistic information from single-cell data has proven difficult. This requires statistical methods to infer unknown model parameters from dynamic, multi-individual data accounting for heterogeneity caused by both intrinsic (e.g. variations in chemical reactions) and extrinsic (e.g. variability in protein concentrations) noise. Although several inference methods exist, the availability of efficient, general and accessible methods that facilitate modelling of single-cell data, remains lacking. Here we present a scalable and flexible framework for Bayesian inference in state-space mixed-effects single-cell models with stochastic dynamic. Our approach infers model parameters when intrinsic noise is modelled by either exact or approximate stochastic simulators, and when extrinsic noise is modelled by either time-varying, or time-constant parameters that vary between cells. We demonstrate the relevance of our approach by studying how cell-to-cell variation in carbon source utilisation affects heterogeneity in the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae SNF1 nutrient sensing pathway. We identify hexokinase activity as a source of extrinsic noise and deduce that sugar availability dictates cell-to-cell variability

Neural network aided approximation and parameter inference of non-Markovian models of gene expression

10.1038/s41467-021-22919-1Nature Communications121261

A spatio-temporal model to reveal oscillator phenotypes in molecular clocks: Parameter estimation elucidates circadian gene transcription dynamics in single-cells.

We propose a stochastic distributed delay model together with a Markov random field prior and a measurement model for bioluminescence-reporting to analyse spatio-temporal gene expression in intact networks of cells. The model describes the oscillating time evolution of molecular mRNA counts through a negative transcriptional-translational feedback loop encoded in a chemical Langevin equation with a probabilistic delay distribution. The model is extended spatially by means of a multiplicative random effects model with a first order Markov random field prior distribution. Our methodology effectively separates intrinsic molecular noise, measurement noise, and extrinsic noise and phenotypic variation driving cell heterogeneity, while being amenable to parameter identification and inference. Based on the single-cell model we propose a novel computational stability analysis that allows us to infer two key characteristics, namely the robustness of the oscillations, i.e. whether the reaction network exhibits sustained or damped oscillations, and the profile of the regulation, i.e. whether the inhibition occurs over time in a more distributed versus a more direct manner, which affects the cells' ability to phase-shift to new schedules. We show how insight into the spatio-temporal characteristics of the circadian feedback loop in the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) can be gained by applying the methodology to bioluminescence-reported expression of the circadian core clock gene Cry1 across mouse SCN tissue. We find that while (almost) all SCN neurons exhibit robust cell-autonomous oscillations, the parameters that are associated with the regulatory transcription profile give rise to a spatial division of the tissue between the central region whose oscillations are resilient to perturbation in the sense that they maintain a high degree of synchronicity, and the dorsal region which appears to phase shift in a more diversified way as a response to large perturbations and thus could be more amenable to entrainment

Efficient Parameter Inference for Stochastic Chemical Kinetics

Parameter inference for stochastic systems is considered as one of the fundamental classical problems in the domain of computational systems biology. The problem becomes challenging and often analytically intractable with the large number of uncertain parameters. In this scenario, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have been proved to be highly effective. For a stochastic system, the most accurate description of the kinetics is given by the Chemical Master Equation (CME). Unfortunately, analytical solution of CME is often intractable even for considerably small amount of chemically reacting species due to its super exponential state space complexity. As a solution, Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA) using Monte Carlo approach was introduced to simulate the chemical process defined by the CME. SSA is an exact stochastic method to simulate CME but it also suffers from high time complexity due to simulation of every reaction. Therefore computation of likelihood function (based on exact CME) and hence the rejection step (in an acceptance-rejection based MCMC like Metropolis-Hastings) becomes expensive. In this generic work, we introduce different approximations of CME as a pre-conditioning step to the full MCMC in order to make rejection cheaper. The goal is to avoid expensive computation of exact CME as far as possible. We show that, with effective pre-conditioning scheme, one can save a considerable amount of exact CME computations maintaining similar convergence characteristics. Additionally, we investigate three different sampling techniques (dense sampling of the same process, longer time sampling of the same process and i.i.d sampling of different processes) under which convergence of MCMC using exact CME for parameter inference can be analyzed. We find that under i.i.d sampling, better convergence can be achieved than that of other two techniques (at least for the processes, we have investigated). We verify our theoretical findings for two different fundamental processes: linear birth-death and dimerization. Although, we succeed in saving a considerable amount of CME computations for two simple one-dimesional processes, challenges remain in extending it for higher dimensions which is a non-trivial problem