Practical Volcano-Independent Recognition of Seismic Events: VULCAN.ears Project

Recognizing the mechanisms underlying seismic activity and tracking temporal and spatial patterns of earthquakes represent primary inputs to monitor active volcanoes and forecast eruptions. To quantify this seismicity, catalogs are established to summarize the history of the observed types and number of volcano-seismic events. In volcano observatories the detection and posterior classification or labeling of the events is manually performed by technicians, often suffering a lack of unified criteria and eventually resulting in poorly reliable labeled databases. State-of-the-art automatic Volcano-Seismic Recognition (VSR) systems allow real-time monitoring and consistent catalogs. VSR systems are generally designed to monitor one station of one volcano, decreasing their efficiency when used to recognize events from another station, in a different eruptive scenario or at different volcanoes. We propose a Volcano-Independent VSR (VI.VSR) solution for creating an exportable VSR system, whose aim is to generate labeled catalogs for observatories which do not have the resources for deploying their own systems. VI.VSR trains universal recognition models with data of several volcanoes to obtain portable and robust characteristics. We have designed the VULCAN.ears ecosystem to facilitate the VI.VSR application in observatories, including the pyVERSO tool to perform VSR tasks in an intuitive way, its graphical interface, geoStudio, and liveVSR for real-time monitoring. Case studies are presented at Deception, Colima, Popocatépetl and Arenal volcanoes testing VI.VSR models in challenging scenarios, obtaining encouraging recognition results in the 70–80% accuracy range. VI.VSR technology represents a major breakthrough to monitor volcanoes with minimal effort, providing reliable seismic catalogs to characterise real-time changes.European Union'sHorizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Grant 74924

Chapter Machine Learning in Volcanology: A Review

A volcano is a complex system, and the characterization of its state at any given time is not an easy task. Monitoring data can be used to estimate the probability of an unrest and/or an eruption episode. These can include seismic, magnetic, electromagnetic, deformation, infrasonic, thermal, geochemical data or, in an ideal situation, a combination of them. Merging data of different origins is a non-trivial task, and often even extracting few relevant and information-rich parameters from a homogeneous time series is already challenging. The key to the characterization of volcanic regimes is in fact a process of data reduction that should produce a relatively small vector of features. The next step is the interpretation of the resulting features, through the recognition of similar vectors and for example, their association to a given state of the volcano. This can lead in turn to highlight possible precursors of unrests and eruptions. This final step can benefit from the application of machine learning techniques, that are able to process big data in an efficient way. Other applications of machine learning in volcanology include the analysis and classification of geological, geochemical and petrological “static” data to infer for example, the possible source and mechanism of observed deposits, the analysis of satellite imagery to quickly classify vast regions difficult to investigate on the ground or, again, to detect changes that could indicate an unrest. Moreover, the use of machine learning is gaining importance in other areas of volcanology, not only for monitoring purposes but for differentiating particular geochemical patterns, stratigraphic issues, differentiating morphological patterns of volcanic edifices, or to assess spatial distribution of volcanoes. Machine learning is helpful in the discrimination of magmatic complexes, in distinguishing tectonic settings of volcanic rocks, in the evaluation of correlations of volcanic units, being particularly helpful in tephrochronology, etc. In this chapter we will review the relevant methods and results published in the last decades using machine learning in volcanology, both with respect to the choice of the optimal feature vectors and to their subsequent classification, taking into account both the unsupervised and the supervised approaches

Classifying seismic waveforms from scratch: a case study in the alpine environment

Nowadays, an increasing amount of seismic data is collected by daily observatory routines. The basic step for successfully analyzing those data is the correct detection of various event types. However, the visually scanning process is a time-consuming task. Applying standard techniques for detection like the STA/LTA trigger still requires the manual control for classification. Here, we present a useful alternative. The incoming data stream is scanned automatically for events of interest. A stochastic classifier, called hidden Markov model, is learned for each class of interest enabling the recognition of highly variable waveforms. In contrast to other automatic techniques as neural networks or support vector machines the algorithm allows to start the classification from scratch as soon as interesting events are identified. Neither the tedious process of collecting training samples nor a time-consuming configuration of the classifier is required. An approach originally introduced for the volcanic task force action allows to learn classifier properties from a single waveform example and some hours of background recording. Besides a reduction of required workload this also enables to detect very rare events. Especially the latter feature provides a milestone point for the use of seismic devices in alpine warning systems. Furthermore, the system offers the opportunity to flag new signal classes that have not been defined before. We demonstrate the application of the classification system using a data set from the Swiss Seismological Survey achieving very high recognition rates. In detail we document all refinements of the classifier providing a step-by-step guide for the fast set up of a well-working classification syste

Machine Learning in Volcanology: A Review

A volcano is a complex system, and the characterization of its state at any given time is not an easy task. Monitoring data can be used to estimate the probability of an unrest and/or an eruption episode. These can include seismic, magnetic, electromagnetic, deformation, infrasonic, thermal, geochemical data or, in an ideal situation, a combination of them. Merging data of different origins is a non-trivial task, and often even extracting few relevant and information-rich parameters from a homogeneous time series is already challenging. The key to the characterization of volcanic regimes is in fact a process of data reduction that should produce a relatively small vector of features. The next step is the interpretation of the resulting features, through the recognition of similar vectors and for example, their association to a given state of the volcano. This can lead in turn to highlight possible precursors of unrests and eruptions. This final step can benefit from the application of machine learning techniques, that are able to process big data in an efficient way. Other applications of machine learning in volcanology include the analysis and classification of geological, geochemical and petrological “static” data to infer for example, the possible source and mechanism of observed deposits, the analysis of satellite imagery to quickly classify vast regions difficult to investigate on the ground or, again, to detect changes that could indicate an unrest. Moreover, the use of machine learning is gaining importance in other areas of volcanology, not only for monitoring purposes but for differentiating particular geochemical patterns, stratigraphic issues, differentiating morphological patterns of volcanic edifices, or to assess spatial distribution of volcanoes. Machine learning is helpful in the discrimination of magmatic complexes, in distinguishing tectonic settings of volcanic rocks, in the evaluation of correlations of volcanic units, being particularly helpful in tephrochronology, etc. In this chapter we will review the relevant methods and results published in the last decades using machine learning in volcanology, both with respect to the choice of the optimal feature vectors and to their subsequent classification, taking into account both the unsupervised and the supervised approaches

Unsupervised Automatic Detection Of Transient Phenomena In InSAR Time-Series using Machine Learning

The detection and measurement of transient episodes of crustal deformation from global InSAR datasets are crucial for a wide range of solid earth and natural hazard applications. But the large volumes of unlabelled data captured by satellites preclude manual systematic analysis, and the small signal-to-noise ratio makes the task difficult. In this thesis, I present a state-of-the-art, unsupervised and event-agnostic deep-learning based approach for the automatic identification of transient deformation events in noisy time-series of unwrapped InSAR images. I adopt an anomaly detection framework that learns the ‘normal’ spatio-temporal pattern of noise in the data, and which therefore identifies any transient deformation phenomena that deviate from this pattern as ‘anomalies’. The deep-learning model is built around a bespoke autoencoder that includes convolutional and LSTM layers, as well as a neural network which acts as a bridge between the encoder and decoder. I train our model on real InSAR data from northern Turkey and find it has an overall accuracy and true positive rate of around 85% when trying to detect synthetic deformation signals of length-scale > 350 m and magnitude > 4 cm. Furthermore, I also show the method can detect (1) a real Mw 5.7 earthquake in InSAR data from an entirely different region- SW Turkey, (2) a volcanic deformation in Domuyo, Argentina, (3) a synthetic slow-slip event and (4) an interseismic deformation around NAF in a descending frame in northern Turkey. Overall I show that my method is suitable for automated analysis of large, global InSAR datasets, and for robust detection and separation of deformation signals from nuisance signals in InSAR data

Hidden Markov Models

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), although known for decades, have made a big career nowadays and are still in state of development. This book presents theoretical issues and a variety of HMMs applications in speech recognition and synthesis, medicine, neurosciences, computational biology, bioinformatics, seismology, environment protection and engineering. I hope that the reader will find this book useful and helpful for their own research