Development of an integrated decision support system for supporting offshore oil spill response in harsh environments

Offshore oil spills can lead to significantly negative impacts on socio-economy and constitute a direct hazard to the marine environment and human health. The response to an oil spill usually consists of a series of dynamic, time-sensitive, multi-faceted and complex processes subject to various constraints and challenges. In the past decades, many models have been developed mainly focusing on individual processes including oil weathering simulation, impact assessment, and clean-up optimization. However, to date, research on integration of offshore oil spill vulnerability analysis, process simulation and operation optimization is still lacking. Such deficiency could be more influential in harsh environments. It becomes noticeably critical and urgent to develop new methodologies and improve technical capacities of offshore oil spill responses. Therefore, this proposed research aims at developing an integrated decision support system for supporting offshore oil spill responses especially in harsh environments (DSS-OSRH). Such a DSS consists of offshore oil spill vulnerability analysis, response technologies screening, and simulation-optimization coupling. The uncertainties and/or dynamics have been quantitatively reflected throughout the modeling processes. First, a Monte Carlo simulation based two-stage adaptive resonance theory mapping (MC-TSAM) approach has been developed. A real-world case study was applied for offshore oil spill vulnerability index (OSVI) classification in the south coast of Newfoundland to demonstrate this approach. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo simulation based integrated rule-based fuzzy adaptive resonance theory mapping (MC-IRFAM) approach has been developed for screening and ranking for spill response and clean-up technologies. The feasibility of the MC-IRFAM was tested with a case of screening and ranking response technologies in an offshore oil spill event. A novel Monte Carlo simulation based dynamic mixed integer nonlinear programming (MC-DMINP) approach has also been developed for the simulation-optimization coupling in offshore oil spill responses. To demonstrate this approach, a case study was conducted in device allocation and oil recovery in an offshore oil spill event. Finally, the DSS-OSRH has been developed based on the integration of MC-TSAM, MC-IRFAM, AND MC-DSINP. To demonstrate its feasibility, a case study was conducted in the decision support during offshore oil spill response in the south coast of Newfoundland. The developed approaches and DSS are the first of their kinds to date targeting offshore oil spill responses. The novelty can be reflected from the following aspects: 1) an innovative MC-TSAM approach for offshore OSVI classification under complexity and uncertainty; 2) a new MC-IRFAM approach for oil spill response technologies classification and ranking with uncertain information; 3) a novel MC-DMINP simulation-optimization coupling approach for offshore oil spill response operation and resource allocation under uncertainty; and 4) an innovational DSS-OSRH which consists of the MC-TSAM, MC-IRFAM, MC-DMINP, supporting decision making throughout the offshore oil spill response processes. These methods are particularly suitable for offshore oil spill responses in harsh environments such as the offshore areas of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL). The research will also promote the understanding of the processes of oil transport and fate and the impacts to the affected offshore and shoreline area. The methodologies will be capable of providing modeling tools for other related areas that require timely and effective decisions under complexity and uncertainty

Fuzzy Sets, Fuzzy Logic and Their Applications

The present book contains 20 articles collected from amongst the 53 total submitted manuscripts for the Special Issue “Fuzzy Sets, Fuzzy Loigic and Their Applications” of the MDPI journal Mathematics. The articles, which appear in the book in the series in which they were accepted, published in Volumes 7 (2019) and 8 (2020) of the journal, cover a wide range of topics connected to the theory and applications of fuzzy systems and their extensions and generalizations. This range includes, among others, management of the uncertainty in a fuzzy environment; fuzzy assessment methods of human-machine performance; fuzzy graphs; fuzzy topological and convergence spaces; bipolar fuzzy relations; type-2 fuzzy; and intuitionistic, interval-valued, complex, picture, and Pythagorean fuzzy sets, soft sets and algebras, etc. The applications presented are oriented to finance, fuzzy analytic hierarchy, green supply chain industries, smart health practice, and hotel selection. This wide range of topics makes the book interesting for all those working in the wider area of Fuzzy sets and systems and of fuzzy logic and for those who have the proper mathematical background who wish to become familiar with recent advances in fuzzy mathematics, which has entered to almost all sectors of human life and activity

Rule model simplification

Centre for Intelligent Systems and their ApplicationsDue to its high performance and comprehensibility, fuzzy modelling is becoming more and more popular in dealing with nonlinear, uncertain and complex systems for tasks such as signal processing, medical diagnosis and financial investment. However, there are no principal routine methods to obtain the optimum fuzzy rule base which is not only compact but also retains high prediction (or classification) performance. In order to achieve this, two major problems need to be addressed. First, as the number of input variables increases, the number of possible rules grows exponentially (termed curse of dimensionality). It inevitably deteriorates the transparency of the rule model and can lead to over-fitting, with the model obtaining high performance on the training data but failing to predict the unknown data successfully. Second, gaps may occur in the rule base if the problem is too compact (termed sparse rule base). As a result, it cannot be handled by conventional fuzzy inference such as Mamdani. This Ph.D. work proposes a rule base simplification method and a family of fuzzy interpolation methods to solve the aforementioned two problems. The proposed simplification method reduces the rule base complexity via Retrieving Data from Rules (RDFR). It first retrieves a collection of new data from an original rule base. Then the new data is used for re-training to build a more compact rule model. This method has four advantages: 1) It can simplify rule bases without using the original training data, but is capable of dealing with combinations of rules and data. 2) It can integrate with any rule induction or reduction schemes. 3) It implements the similarity merging and inconsistency removal approaches. 4) It can make use of rule weights. Illustrative examples have been given to demonstrate the potential of this work. The second part of the work concerns the development of a family of transformation based fuzzy interpolation methods (termed HS methods). These methods first introduce the general concept of representative values (RVs), and then use this to interpolate fuzzy rules involving arbitrary polygonal fuzzy sets, by means of scale and move transformations. This family consists of two sub-categories: namely, the original HS methods and the enhanced HS methods. The HS methods not only inherit the common advantages of fuzzy interpolative reasoning -- helping reduce rule base complexity and allowing inferences to be performed within simple and sparse rule bases -- but also have two other advantages compared to the existing fuzzy interpolation methods. Firstly, they provide a degree of freedom to choose various RV definitions to meet different application requirements. Secondly, they can handle the interpolation of multiple rules, with each rule having multiple antecedent variables associated with arbitrary polygonal fuzzy membership functions. This makes the interpolation inference a practical solution for real world applications. The enhanced HS methods are the first proposed interpolation methods which preserve piece-wise linearity, which may provide a solution to solve the interpolation problem in a very high Cartesian space in the mathematics literature. The RDFR-based simplification method has been applied to a variety of applications including nursery prediction, the Saturday morning problem and credit application. HS methods have been utilized in truck backer-upper control and computer hardware prediction. The former demonstrates the simplification potential of the HS methods, while the latter shows their capability in dealing with sparse rule bases. The RDFR-based simplification method and HS methods are further integrated into a novel model simplification framework, which has been applied to a scaled-up application (computer activity prediction). In the experimental studies, the proposed simplification framework leads to very good fuzzy rule base reductions whilst retaining, or improving, performance

Open Data

Open data is freely usable, reusable, or redistributable by anybody, provided there are safeguards in place that protect the data’s integrity and transparency. This book describes how data retrieved from public open data repositories can improve the learning qualities of digital networking, particularly performance and reliability. Chapters address such topics as knowledge extraction, Open Government Data (OGD), public dashboards, intrusion detection, and artificial intelligence in healthcare

Support Vector Machine-based Fuzzy Systems for Quantitative Prediction of Peptide Binding Affinity

Reliable prediction of binding affinity of peptides is one of the most challenging but important complex modelling problems in the post-genome era due to the diversity and functionality of the peptides discovered. Generally, peptide binding prediction models are commonly used to find out whether a binding exists between a certain peptide(s) and a major histocompatibility complex (MHC) molecule(s). Recent research efforts have been focused on quantifying the binding predictions. The objective of this thesis is to develop reliable real-value predictive models through the use of fuzzy systems. A non-linear system is proposed with the aid of support vector-based regression to improve the fuzzy system and applied to the real value prediction of degree of peptide binding. This research study introduced two novel methods to improve structure and parameter identification of fuzzy systems. First, the support-vector based regression is used to identify initial parameter values of the consequent part of type-1 and interval type-2 fuzzy systems. Second, an overlapping clustering concept is used to derive interval valued parameters of the premise part of the type-2 fuzzy system. Publicly available peptide binding affinity data sets obtained from the literature are used in the experimental studies of this thesis. First, the proposed models are blind validated using the peptide binding affinity data sets obtained from a modelling competition. In that competition, almost an equal number of peptide sequences in the training and testing data sets (89, 76, 133 and 133 peptides for the training and 88, 76, 133 and 47 peptides for the testing) are provided to the participants. Each peptide in the data sets was represented by 643 bio-chemical descriptors assigned to each amino acid. Second, the proposed models are cross validated using mouse class I MHC alleles (H2-Db, H2-Kb and H2-Kk). H2-Db, H2-Kb, and H2-Kk consist of 65 nona-peptides, 62 octa-peptides, and 154 octa-peptides, respectively. Compared to the previously published results in the literature, the support vector-based type-1 and support vector-based interval type-2 fuzzy models yield an improvement in the prediction accuracy. The quantitative predictive performances have been improved as much as 33.6\% for the first group of data sets and 1.32\% for the second group of data sets. The proposed models not only improved the performance of the fuzzy system (which used support vector-based regression), but the support vector-based regression benefited from the fuzzy concept also. The results obtained here sets the platform for the presented models to be considered for other application domains in computational and/or systems biology. Apart from improving the prediction accuracy, this research study has also identified specific features which play a key role(s) in making reliable peptide binding affinity predictions. The amino acid features "Polarity", "Positive charge", "Hydrophobicity coefficient", and "Zimm-Bragg parameter" are considered as highly discriminating features in the peptide binding affinity data sets. This information can be valuable in the design of peptides with strong binding affinity to a MHC I molecule(s). This information may also be useful when designing drugs and vaccines

Semantic discovery and reuse of business process patterns

Patterns currently play an important role in modern information systems (IS) development and their use has mainly been restricted to the design and implementation phases of the development lifecycle. Given the increasing significance of business modelling in IS development, patterns have the potential of providing a viable solution for promoting reusability of recurrent generalized models in the very early stages of development. As a statement of research-in-progress this paper focuses on business process patterns and proposes an initial methodological framework for the discovery and reuse of business process patterns within the IS development lifecycle. The framework borrows ideas from the domain engineering literature and proposes the use of semantics to drive both the discovery of patterns as well as their reuse

Systems biology of breast cancer

Breast cancer, with an alarming incidence rate throughout the globe, has attracted significant investigations to identify disease specific biomarkers. Among these, oestrogen receptor (ER) occupies a central role where overexpression is a prognostic indication for breast cancer. The cross-talk between the responsible contenders of ER-associated genes potentially play an important role in the disease aetiology. Investigation of such cross talk is the focus of this thesis. The development of high throughput technologies such as expression microarrays has paved the way for investigating thousands of genes at a time. Microarrays with their high data volume, multivariate nature and non-linearity pose challenges for analysing using conventional statistical approaches. To combat these challenges, computational researchers have developed machine learning approaches such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). This thesis evaluates ANNs based methodologies and their application to the analysis of microarray data generated for breast cancer cases of differing oestrogen receptor status. Furthermore they are used for network inferencing to identify interactions between ER-associated markers and for the subsequent identification of putative pathway elements. The present thesis shows that it is possible to identify some ER-associated breast cancer relevant markers using ANNs. These have been subsequently validated on clinical breast tumour samples highlighting the promise of this approach