Assessing the perceived environment through crowdsourced spatial photo content for application to the fields of landscape and urban planning

Assessing information on aspects of identification, perception, emotion, and social interaction with respect to the environment is of particular importance to the fields of natural resource management. Our ability to visualize this type of information has rapidly improved with the proliferation of social media sites throughout the Internet in recent years. While many methods to extract information on human behavior from crowdsourced geodata already exist, this work focuses on visualizing landscape perception for application to the fields of landscape and urban planning. Visualization of people’s perceptual responses to landscape is demonstrated with crowdsourced photo geodata from Flickr, a popular photo sharing community. A basic, general method to map, visualize and evaluate perception and perceptual values is proposed. The approach utilizes common tools for spatial knowledge discovery and builds on existing research, but is specifically designed for implementation within the context of landscape perception analysis and particularly suited as a base for further evaluation in multiple scenarios. To demonstrate the process in application, three novel types of visualizations are presented: the mapping of lines of sight in Yosemite Valley, the assessment of landscape change in the area surrounding the High Line in Manhattan, and individual location analysis for Coit Tower in San Francisco. The results suggest that analyzing crowdsourced data may contribute to a more balanced assessment of the perceived landscape, which provides a basis for a better integration of public values into planning processes.:Contents 3 1 Introduction 7 1.1 Motivation 7 1.2 Literature review and conceptual scope 9 1.3 Terminology 11 1.4 Related research 12 1.5 Objectives 14 1.6 Methodology 16 1.7 Formal conventions 21 I. Part I: Conceptual framework 23 1.1 Visual perception 23 1.2 Theory and practice in landscape perception assessment 27 1.2.1 Expert valuation versus participation 27 1.2.2 Photography-based landscape perception assessment 32 1.2.2.1. Photo-based surveys 32 1.2.2.2. Photo-based Internet surveys 35 1.2.2.3. Photo-interviewing and participant photography 37 1.2.3 Conclusions 40 1.3 Conceptual approach 42 1.3.1 A framing theory: Distributed cognition 42 1.3.2 Description of the approach 46 1.3.3 Choosing the right data source 48 1.3.3.1. Availability of crowdsourced and georeferenced photo data 48 1.3.3.2. Suitability for analyzing human behavior and perception 51 1.3.4 Relations between data and the phenomenon under observation 55 1.3.4.1. Photo taking and landscape perception 55 1.3.4.2. User motivation in the context of photo sharing in communities 61 1.3.4.3. Describing and tagging photos: Forms of attributing meaning 66 1.3.5 Considerations for measuring and weighting data 70 1.3.6 Conclusions 77 II. Part II: Application example – Flickr photo analysis and evaluation of results 80 2.1 Software architecture 80 2.2 Materials and methods 86 2.2.1 Data retrieval, initial data structure and overall quantification 86 2.2.2 Global data bias 89 2.2.3 Basic techniques for filtering and classifying data 94 2.2.3.1. Where: photo locations 94 2.2.3.2. Who: user origin 96 2.2.3.3. When: time of photo taking 102 2.2.3.4. What: tag frequency 108   2.2.4 Methods for aggregating data 113 2.2.4.1. Clustering of photo locations 113 2.2.4.2. Clustering of tag locations 115 2.3 Application to planning: techniques for visualizing data 118 2.3.1 Introduction 118 2.3.2 Tag maps 121 2.3.2.1. Description of technique 121 2.3.2.2. Results: San Francisco and Berkeley waterfront 126 2.3.2.3. Results: Berkeley downtown and university campus 129 2.3.2.4. Results: Dresden and the Elbe Valley 132 2.3.2.5. Results: Greater Toronto Area and City of Toronto 136 2.3.2.6. Results: Baden-Württemberg 143 2.3.2.7. Summary 156 2.3.3 Temporal comparison for assessing landscape change 158 2.3.3.1. Description of technique 158 2.3.3.2. Results: The High Line, NY 159 2.3.3.3. Summary 160 2.3.4 Determining lines of sight and important visual connections 161 2.3.4.1. Description of technique 161 2.3.4.2. Results: Yosemite Valley 162 2.3.4.3. Results: Golden Gate and Bay Bridge 167 2.3.4.4. Results: CN Tower, Toronto 168 2.3.4.5. Summary 170 2.3.5 Individual location analysis 171 2.3.5.1. Description of technique 171 2.3.5.2. Results: Coit Tower, San Francisco 171 2.3.5.3. Results: CN Tower, Toronto 172 2.3.5.4. Summary 173 2.4 Quality and accuracy of results 175 2.4.1 Methodology 175 2.4.2 Accuracy of data 175 2.4.3 Validity and reliability of visualizations 178 2.4.3.1. Reliability 178 2.4.3.2. Validity 180 2.5 Implementation example: the London View Framework 181 2.5.1 Description 181 2.5.2 Evaluation methodology 183 2.5.3 Analysis 184 2.5.3.1. Landmarks 184 2.5.3.2. Views 192 2.5.4 Summary 199 III. Discussion 203 3.1 Application of the framework from a wider perspective 203 3.2 Significance of results 204 3.3 Further research 205   3.4 Discussion of workshop results and further feedback 206 3.4.1 Workshops at University of Waterloo and University of Toronto, Canada 206 3.4.2 Workshop at University of Technology Dresden, Germany 209 3.4.3 Feedback from presentations, discussions, exhibitions: second thoughts 210 IV. Conclusions 212 V. References 213 5.1 Literature 213 5.2 List of web references 228 5.3 List of figures 230 5.4 List of tables 234 5.5 List of maps 235 5.6 List of appendices 236 VI. Appendices 237  Als Wahrnehmung wird der Bewusstseinsprozess des subjektiven Verstehens der Umwelt bezeichnet. Grundlage für diesen Prozess ist die Gewinnung von Informationen über die Sinne, also aus visuellen, olfaktorischen, akustischen und anderen Reizen. Die Wahrnehmung ist aber auch wesentlich durch interne Prozesse beeinflusst. Das menschliche Gehirn ist fortlaufend damit beschäftigt, sowohl bewusst als auch unbewusst Sinneswahrnehmungen mit Erinnerungen abzugleichen, zu vereinfachen, zu assoziieren, vorherzusagen oder zu vergleichen. Aus diesem Grund ist es schwierig, die Wahrnehmung von Orten und Landschaften in Planungsprozessen zu berücksichtigen. Jedoch wird genau dies von der Europäischen Landschaftskonvention gefordert, die Landschaft als einen bestimmten Bereich definiert, so wie er von Besuchern und Einwohnern wahrgenommen wird (“as a zone or area as perceived by local people or visitors”, ELC Art. 1, Abs. 38). Während viele Fortschritte und Erkenntnisse, zum Beispiel aus den Kognitionswissenschaften, heute helfen, die Wahrnehmung einzelner Menschen zu verstehen, konnte die Stadt- und Landschaftsplanung kaum profitieren. Es fehlt an Kenntnissen über das Zusammenwirken der Wahrnehmung vieler Menschen. Schon Stadtplaner Kevin Lynch beschäftigte dieses gemeinsame, kollektive ‚Bild‘ der menschlichen Umwelt ("generalized mental picture", Lynch, 1960, p. 4). Seitdem wurden kaum nennenswerte Fortschritte bei der Erfassung der allgemeinen, öffentlichen Wahrnehmung von Stadt- und Landschaft erzielt. Dies war Anlass und Motivation für die vorliegende Arbeit. Eine bisher in der Planung ungenutzte Informationsquelle für die Erfassung der Wahrnehmung vieler Menschen bietet sich in Form von crowdsourced Daten (auch ‚Big Data‘), also großen Mengen an Daten die von vielen Menschen im Internet zusammengetragen werden. Im Vergleich zu konventionellen Daten, zum Beispiel solchen die durch Experten erhoben werden und durch öffentliche Träger zur Verfügung stehen, eröffnet sich durch crowdsourced Daten eine bisher nicht verfügbare Quelle für Informationen, um die komplexen Zusammenhänge zwischen Raum, Identität und subjektiver Wahrnehmung zu verstehen. Dabei enthalten crowdsourced Daten lediglich Spuren menschlicher Entscheidungen. Aufgrund der Menge ist es aber möglich, wesentliche Informationen über die Wahrnehmung derer, die diese Daten zusammengetragen haben, zu gewinnen. Dies ermöglicht es Planern zu verstehen, wie Menschen ihre unmittelbare Umgebung wahrnehmen und mit ihr interagieren. Darüber hinaus wird es immer wichtiger, die Ansichten Vieler in Planungsprozessen zu berücksichtigen (Lynam, De Jong, Sheil, Kusumanto, & Evans, 2007; Brody, 2004). Der Wunsch nach öffentlicher Beteiligung sowie die Anzahl an beteiligten Stakeholdern nehmen dabei konstant zu. Durch das Nutzen dieser neuen Informationsquelle bietet sich eine Alternative zu herkömmlichen Ansätzen wie Umfragen, die genutzt werden um beispielsweise Meinungen, Positionen, Werte, Normen oder Vorlieben von bestimmten sozialen Gruppen zu messen. Indem es crowdsourced Daten erleichtern, solch soziokulturelle Werte zu bestimmen, können die Ergebnisse vor allem bei der schwierigen Gewichtung gegensätzlicher Interessen und Ansichten helfen. Es wird die Ansicht geteilt, dass die Nutzung von crowdsourced Daten, indem Einschätzungen von Experten ergänzt werden, letztendlich zu einer faireren, ausgeglichenen Berücksichtigung der Allgemeinheit in Entscheidungsprozessen führen kann (Erickson, 2011, p.1). Eine große Anzahl an Methoden ist bereits verfügbar, um aus dieser Datenquelle wichtige landschaftsbezogene Informationen auszulesen. Beispiele sind die Bewertung der Attraktivität von Landschaften, die Bestimmung der Bedeutung von Sehenswürdigkeiten oder Wahrzeichen, oder die Einschätzung von Reisevorlieben von Nutzergruppen. Viele der bisherigen Methoden wurden jedoch als ungenügend empfunden, um die speziellen Bedürfnisse und das breite Spektrum an Fragestellungen zur Landschaftswahrnehmung in Stadt- und Landschaftsplanung zu berücksichtigen. Das Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit ist es, praxisrelevantes Wissen zu vermitteln, welches es Planern erlaubt, selbstständig Daten zu erforschen, zu visualisieren und zu interpretieren. Der Schlüssel für eine erfolgreiche Umsetzung wird dabei in der Synthese von Wissen aus drei Kategorien gesehen, theoretische Grundlagen (1), technisches Wissen zur Datenverarbeitung (2) sowie Kenntnisse zur grafischen Visualisierungen (3). Die theoretischen Grundlagen werden im ersten Teil der Arbeit (Part I) präsentiert. In diesem Teil werden zunächst Schwachpunkte aktueller Verfahren diskutiert, um anschließend einen neuen, konzeptionell-technischen Ansatz vorzuschlagen der gezielt auf die Ergänzung bereits vorhandener Methoden zielt. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit (Part II) wird anhand eines Datenbeispiels die Anwendung des Ansatzes exemplarisch demonstriert. Fragestellungen die angesprochen werden reichen von der Datenabfrage, Verarbeitung, Analyse, Visualisierung, bis zur Interpretation von Grafiken in Planungsprozessen. Als Basis dient dabei ein Datenset mit 147 Millionen georeferenzierte Foto-Daten und 882 Millionen Tags der Fotoaustauschplatform Flickr, welches in den Jahren 2007 bis 2015 von 1,3 Millionen Nutzern zusammengetragen wurde. Anhand dieser Daten wird die Entwicklung neuer Visualisierungstechniken exemplarisch vorgestellt. Beispiele umfassen Spatio-temporal Tag Clouds, eine experimentelle Technik zur Generierung von wahrnehmungsgewichteten Karten, die Visualisierung von wahrgenommenem Landschaftswandel, das Abbilden von wahrnehmungsgewichteten Sichtlinien, sowie die Auswertung von individueller Wahrnehmung von und an bestimmten Orten. Die Anwendung dieser Techniken wird anhand verschiedener Testregionen in den USA, Kanada und Deutschland für alle Maßstabsebenen geprüft und diskutiert. Dies umfasst beispielsweise die Erfassung und Bewertung von Sichtlinien und visuellen Bezügen in Yosemite Valley, das Monitoring von wahrgenommenen Veränderungen im Bereich der High Line in New York, die Auswertung von individueller Wahrnehmung für Coit Tower in San Francisco, oder die Beurteilung von regional wahrgenommenen identitätsstiftenden Landschaftswerten für Baden-Württemberg und die Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Anschließend werden Ansätze vorgestellt, um die Qualität und Validität von Visualisierungen einzuschätzen. Abschließend wird anhand eines konkreten Planungsbeispiels, des London View Management Frameworks (LVMF), eine spezifische Implementation des Ansatzes und der Visualisierungen kurz aufgezeigt und diskutiert. Mit der Arbeit wird vor allem das breite Potential betont, welches die Nutzung von crowdsourced Daten für die Bewertung von Landschaftswahrnehmung in Stadt- und Landschaftsplanung bereithält. Insbesondere crowdsourced Fotodaten werden als wichtige zusätzliche Informationsquelle gesehen, da sie eine bisher nicht verfügbare Perspektive auf die allgemeine, öffentliche Wahrnehmung der Umwelt ermöglichen. Während der breiteren Anwendung noch einige Grenzen gesetzt sind, können die vorgestellten experimentellen Methoden und Techniken schon wichtige Aufschlüsse über eine ganze Reihe von wahrgenommenen Landschaftswerten geben. Auf konzeptioneller Ebene stellt die Arbeit eine erste Grundlage für weitere Forschung dar. Bevor jedoch eine breite Anwendung in der Praxis möglich ist, müssen entscheidende Fragen gelöst werden, beispielsweise zum Copyright, zur Definition von ethischen Standards innerhalb der Profession, sowie zum Schutz der Privatsphäre Beteiligter. Längerfristig wird nicht nur die Nutzung der Daten als wichtig angesehen, sondern auch die Erschließung der essentiellen Möglichkeiten dieser Entwicklung zur besseren Kommunikation mit Auftraggebern, Beteiligten und der Öffentlichkeit in Planungs- und Entscheidungsprozessen.:Contents 3 1 Introduction 7 1.1 Motivation 7 1.2 Literature review and conceptual scope 9 1.3 Terminology 11 1.4 Related research 12 1.5 Objectives 14 1.6 Methodology 16 1.7 Formal conventions 21 I. Part I: Conceptual framework 23 1.1 Visual perception 23 1.2 Theory and practice in landscape perception assessment 27 1.2.1 Expert valuation versus participation 27 1.2.2 Photography-based landscape perception assessment 32 1.2.2.1. Photo-based surveys 32 1.2.2.2. Photo-based Internet surveys 35 1.2.2.3. Photo-interviewing and participant photography 37 1.2.3 Conclusions 40 1.3 Conceptual approach 42 1.3.1 A framing theory: Distributed cognition 42 1.3.2 Description of the approach 46 1.3.3 Choosing the right data source 48 1.3.3.1. Availability of crowdsourced and georeferenced photo data 48 1.3.3.2. Suitability for analyzing human behavior and perception 51 1.3.4 Relations between data and the phenomenon under observation 55 1.3.4.1. Photo taking and landscape perception 55 1.3.4.2. User motivation in the context of photo sharing in communities 61 1.3.4.3. Describing and tagging photos: Forms of attributing meaning 66 1.3.5 Considerations for measuring and weighting data 70 1.3.6 Conclusions 77 II. Part II: Application example – Flickr photo analysis and evaluation of results 80 2.1 Software architecture 80 2.2 Materials and methods 86 2.2.1 Data retrieval, initial data structure and overall quantification 86 2.2.2 Global data bias 89 2.2.3 Basic techniques for filtering and classifying data 94 2.2.3.1. Where: photo locations 94 2.2.3.2. Who: user origin 96 2.2.3.3. When: time of photo taking 102 2.2.3.4. What: tag frequency 108   2.2.4 Methods for aggregating data 113 2.2.4.1. Clustering of photo locations 113 2.2.4.2. Clustering of tag locations 115 2.3 Application to planning: techniques for visualizing data 118 2.3.1 Introduction 118 2.3.2 Tag maps 121 2.3.2.1. Description of technique 121 2.3.2.2. Results: San Francisco and Berkeley waterfront 126 2.3.2.3. Results: Berkeley downtown and university campus 129 2.3.2.4. Results: Dresden and the Elbe Valley 132 2.3.2.5. Results: Greater Toronto Area and City of Toronto 136 2.3.2.6. Results: Baden-Württemberg 143 2.3.2.7. Summary 156 2.3.3 Temporal comparison for assessing landscape change 158 2.3.3.1. Description of technique 158 2.3.3.2. Results: The High Line, NY 159 2.3.3.3. Summary 160 2.3.4 Determining lines of sight and important visual connections 161 2.3.4.1. Description of technique 161 2.3.4.2. Results: Yosemite Valley 162 2.3.4.3. Results: Golden Gate and Bay Bridge 167 2.3.4.4. Results: CN Tower, Toronto 168 2.3.4.5. Summary 170 2.3.5 Individual location analysis 171 2.3.5.1. Description of technique 171 2.3.5.2. Results: Coit Tower, San Francisco 171 2.3.5.3. Results: CN Tower, Toronto 172 2.3.5.4. Summary 173 2.4 Quality and accuracy of results 175 2.4.1 Methodology 175 2.4.2 Accuracy of data 175 2.4.3 Validity and reliability of visualizations 178 2.4.3.1. Reliability 178 2.4.3.2. Validity 180 2.5 Implementation example: the London View Framework 181 2.5.1 Description 181 2.5.2 Evaluation methodology 183 2.5.3 Analysis 184 2.5.3.1. Landmarks 184 2.5.3.2. Views 192 2.5.4 Summary 199 III. Discussion 203 3.1 Application of the framework from a wider perspective 203 3.2 Significance of results 204 3.3 Further research 205   3.4 Discussion of workshop results and further feedback 206 3.4.1 Workshops at University of Waterloo and University of Toronto, Canada 206 3.4.2 Workshop at University of Technology Dresden, Germany 209 3.4.3 Feedback from presentations, discussions, exhibitions: second thoughts 210 IV. Conclusions 212 V. References 213 5.1 Literature 213 5.2 List of web references 228 5.3 List of figures 230 5.4 List of tables 234 5.5 List of maps 235 5.6 List of appendices 236 VI. Appendices 237

Proceedings of the GIS Research UK 18th Annual Conference GISRUK 2010

This volume holds the papers from the 18th annual GIS Research UK (GISRUK). This year the conference, hosted at University College London (UCL), from Wednesday 14 to Friday 16 April 2010. The conference covered the areas of core geographic information science research as well as applications domains such as crime and health and technological developments in LBS and the geoweb. UCL’s research mission as a global university is based around a series of Grand Challenges that affect us all, and these were accommodated in GISRUK 2010. The overarching theme this year was “Global Challenges”, with specific focus on the following themes: * Crime and Place * Environmental Change * Intelligent Transport * Public Health and Epidemiology * Simulation and Modelling * London as a global city * The geoweb and neo-geography * Open GIS and Volunteered Geographic Information * Human-Computer Interaction and GIS Traditionally, GISRUK has provided a platform for early career researchers as well as those with a significant track record of achievement in the area. As such, the conference provides a welcome blend of innovative thinking and mature reflection. GISRUK is the premier academic GIS conference in the UK and we are keen to maintain its outstanding record of achievement in developing GIS in the UK and beyond

GIS in Healthcare

The landscape of healthcare is dynamic, gradually becoming more complicated with factors beyond simple supply and demand. Similar to the diversity of social, political and economic contexts, the practical utilization of healthcare resources also varies around the world. However, the spatial components of these contexts, along with aspects of supply and demand, can reveal a common theme among these factors. This book presents advancements in GIS applications that reveal the complexity of and solutions for a dynamic healthcare landscape

Urban Informatics

This open access book is the first to systematically introduce the principles of urban informatics and its application to every aspect of the city that involves its functioning, control, management, and future planning. It introduces new models and tools being developed to understand and implement these technologies that enable cities to function more efficiently – to become ‘smart’ and ‘sustainable’. The smart city has quickly emerged as computers have become ever smaller to the point where they can be embedded into the very fabric of the city, as well as being central to new ways in which the population can communicate and act. When cities are wired in this way, they have the potential to become sentient and responsive, generating massive streams of ‘big’ data in real time as well as providing immense opportunities for extracting new forms of urban data through crowdsourcing. This book offers a comprehensive review of the methods that form the core of urban informatics from various kinds of urban remote sensing to new approaches to machine learning and statistical modelling. It provides a detailed technical introduction to the wide array of tools information scientists need to develop the key urban analytics that are fundamental to learning about the smart city, and it outlines ways in which these tools can be used to inform design and policy so that cities can become more efficient with a greater concern for environment and equity

Urban Informatics

This open access book is the first to systematically introduce the principles of urban informatics and its application to every aspect of the city that involves its functioning, control, management, and future planning. It introduces new models and tools being developed to understand and implement these technologies that enable cities to function more efficiently – to become ‘smart’ and ‘sustainable’. The smart city has quickly emerged as computers have become ever smaller to the point where they can be embedded into the very fabric of the city, as well as being central to new ways in which the population can communicate and act. When cities are wired in this way, they have the potential to become sentient and responsive, generating massive streams of ‘big’ data in real time as well as providing immense opportunities for extracting new forms of urban data through crowdsourcing. This book offers a comprehensive review of the methods that form the core of urban informatics from various kinds of urban remote sensing to new approaches to machine learning and statistical modelling. It provides a detailed technical introduction to the wide array of tools information scientists need to develop the key urban analytics that are fundamental to learning about the smart city, and it outlines ways in which these tools can be used to inform design and policy so that cities can become more efficient with a greater concern for environment and equity

Risky Businesses: A Micro-Level Spatiotemporal Analysis of Crime, Place, & Business Establishment Type

Continuing advances in the fields of environmental criminology and geographical information sciences are facilitating place-based research. One of the current trends in environmental criminology is the focus on micro-level `places\u27 including street segments, property lots, and specific kinds of buildings and facilities in understanding crime patterns and the opportunity structure that permits crime. Despite important findings on the concentration of crime in urban areas, there continues to be substantial gaps in our knowledge about micro-level spatiotemporal patterns of crime. These gaps in micro-level environmental criminology research have primarily been a result of the lack of access to data, availability of ancillary data (land-use & business establishment data), accuracy of geocoded crime data, and availability of existing theory and methods to study crime at micro-levels. Interestingly, many studies indicate that crimes are clustered at neighborhood level, but the entire neighborhood is rarely (if ever) criminogenic and only specific parts of neighborhoods contain high concentrations of crime. Prior studies incorrectly assume that the relationships between crime, population, land-use, and business establishment types are both homogenous and spatially stationary. Environmental criminologists using Pareto\u27s 80/20 concept pointed out that not all parks are full of drug users/dealers, not all high schools have high rates of delinquency, not all bars contain high rates of assault, and not all parking lots have high rates of auto theft. In fact neighborhoods contain hot spots (high density crime areas) and cold spots (low density crime areas), bad streets and good streets, and good and bad businesses. By undertaking a micro-level spatiotemporal framework, this dissertation research is intended to promote understanding of the patterns of violent crimes and the opportunity factors that contribute to these crimes in neighborhoods, street segments, property lots and business establishment types. The integration of environmental criminological theory and novel spatial analyses at the street segment and property lot level should help criminology/criminal justice scholars and practitioners to better understand the spatial and temporal processes in the `magma\u27 that fuels today\u27s hot spots

Urban Informatics

This open access book is the first to systematically introduce the principles of urban informatics and its application to every aspect of the city that involves its functioning, control, management, and future planning. It introduces new models and tools being developed to understand and implement these technologies that enable cities to function more efficiently – to become ‘smart’ and ‘sustainable’. The smart city has quickly emerged as computers have become ever smaller to the point where they can be embedded into the very fabric of the city, as well as being central to new ways in which the population can communicate and act. When cities are wired in this way, they have the potential to become sentient and responsive, generating massive streams of ‘big’ data in real time as well as providing immense opportunities for extracting new forms of urban data through crowdsourcing. This book offers a comprehensive review of the methods that form the core of urban informatics from various kinds of urban remote sensing to new approaches to machine learning and statistical modelling. It provides a detailed technical introduction to the wide array of tools information scientists need to develop the key urban analytics that are fundamental to learning about the smart city, and it outlines ways in which these tools can be used to inform design and policy so that cities can become more efficient with a greater concern for environment and equity

Investigating summer thermal stratification in Lake Ontario

Summer thermal stratification in Lake Ontario is simulated using the 3D hydrodynamic model Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC). Summer temperature differences establish strong vertical density gradients (thermocline) between the epilimnion and hypolimnion. Capturing the stratification and thermocline formation has been a challenge in modeling Great Lakes. Deviating from EFDC's original Mellor-Yamada (1982) vertical mixing scheme, we have implemented an unidimensional vertical model that uses different eddy diffusivity formulations above and below the thermocline (Vincon-Leite, 1991; Vincon-Leite et al., 2014). The model is forced with the hourly meteorological data from weather stations around the lake, flow data for Niagara and St. Lawrence rivers; and lake bathymetry is interpolated on a 2-km grid. The model has 20 vertical layers following sigma vertical coordinates. Sensitivity of the model to vertical layers' spacing is thoroughly investigated. The model has been calibrated for appropriate solar radiation coefficients and horizontal mixing coefficients. Overall the new implemented diffusivity algorithm shows some successes in capturing the thermal stratification with RMSE values between 2-3°C. Calibration of vertical mixing coefficients is under investigation to capture the improved thermal stratification

Assessing the vulnerability of resource-poor households to disasters associated with climate variability using remote sensing and GIS techniques in the Nkonkobe Local Municipality, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

The main objective of the study was to assess the extent to which resource-poor households in selected villages of Nkonkobe Local Municipality in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa are vulnerable to drought by using an improvised remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS)-based mapping approach. The research methodology was comprised of 1) assessment of vulnerability levels and 2) the calculation of established drought assessment indices comprising the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) from wet-season Landsat images covering a period of 29 years from 1985 to 2014 in order to objectively determine the temporal recurrence of drought in Nkonkobe Local Municipality. Vulnerability of households to drought was determined by using a multi-step GIS-based mapping approach in which 3 components comprising exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity were simultaneously analysed and averaged to determine the magnitude of vulnerability. Thereafter, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to establish weighted contributions of these components to vulnerability. The weights applied to the AHP were obtained from the 2012 - 2017 Nkonkobe Integrated Development Plan (IDP) and perceptions that were solicited from key informants who were judged to be knowledgeable about the subject. A Kruskal-Wallis H test on demographic data for water access revealed that the demographic results are independent of choice of data acquired from different data providers (χ2(2) = 1.26, p = 0.533, with a mean ranked population scores of 7.4 for ECSECC, 6.8 for Quantec and 9.8 for StatsSA). Simple linear regression analysis revealed strong positive correlations between NDWI and NDVI ((r = 0.99609375, R2 = 1, for 1985), 1995 (r = 0.99609375, R2 = 1 for 1995), (r = 0.99609375, R2 = 1 for 2005) and (r = 0.99609375, R2 = 1 for 2014). The regression analysis proved that vegetation condition depends on surface water arising from rainfall. The results indicate that the whole of Nkonkobe Local Municipality is susceptible to drought with villages in south eastern part being most vulnerable to droughts due to high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity