Studying the effects of stress on negotiation behaviour

"Special issue : Computational approaches for conflict resolution in decision making : new advances and developments"Negotiation is a collaborative activity that requires the participation of different parties whose behaviors influence the outcome of the whole process. The work presented here focuses on the identification of such behaviors and their impact on the negotiation process. The premise for this study is that identifying and cataloging the behavior of parties during a negotiation may help to clarify the role that stress plays in the process. To do so, an experiment based on a negotiation game was implemented. During this experiment, behavioral and contextual information about participants was acquired. The data from this negotiation game were analyzed in order to identify the conflict styles used by each party and to extract behavioral patterns from the interactions, useful for the development of plans and suggestions for the associated participants. The work highlights the importance of the knowledge about social interactions as a basis for informed decision support in situations of conflict.This work is part-funded by ERDF - European Regional Development Fund through the COMPETE Programme (operational programme for competitiveness) and by National Funds through the FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) within project FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-028980 (PTDC/EEI-SII/1386/2012). The work of Tiago Oliveira is supported by doctoral grant by FCT (SFRH/BD/85291/2012)

Synthetic Spatial Foraging With Active Inference in a Geocaching Task

Humans are highly proficient in learning about the environments in which they operate. They form flexible spatial representations of their surroundings that can be leveraged with ease during spatial foraging and navigation. To capture these abilities, we present a deep Active Inference model of goal-directed behavior, and the accompanying belief updating. Active Inference rests upon optimizing Bayesian beliefs to maximize model evidence or marginal likelihood. Bayesian beliefs are probability distributions over the causes of observable outcomes. These causes include an agent's actions, which enables one to treat planning as inference. We use simulations of a geocaching task to elucidate the belief updating-that underwrites spatial foraging-and the associated behavioral and neurophysiological responses. In a geocaching task, the aim is to find hidden objects in the environment using spatial coordinates. Here, synthetic agents learn about the environment via inference and learning (e.g., learning about the likelihoods of outcomes given latent states) to reach a target location, and then forage locally to discover the hidden object that offers clues for the next location

Increasing trust in new data sources: crowdsourcing image classification for ecology

Crowdsourcing methods facilitate the production of scientific information by non-experts. This form of citizen science (CS) is becoming a key source of complementary data in many fields to inform data-driven decisions and study challenging problems. However, concerns about the validity of these data often constrain their utility. In this paper, we focus on the use of citizen science data in addressing complex challenges in environmental conservation. We consider this issue from three perspectives. First, we present a literature scan of papers that have employed Bayesian models with citizen science in ecology. Second, we compare several popular majority vote algorithms and introduce a Bayesian item response model that estimates and accounts for participants' abilities after adjusting for the difficulty of the images they have classified. The model also enables participants to be clustered into groups based on ability. Third, we apply the model in a case study involving the classification of corals from underwater images from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We show that the model achieved superior results in general and, for difficult tasks, a weighted consensus method that uses only groups of experts and experienced participants produced better performance measures. Moreover, we found that participants learn as they have more classification opportunities, which substantially increases their abilities over time. Overall, the paper demonstrates the feasibility of CS for answering complex and challenging ecological questions when these data are appropriately analysed. This serves as motivation for future work to increase the efficacy and trustworthiness of this emerging source of data.Comment: 25 pages, 10 figure

Correcting misclassification errors in crowdsourced ecological data: A Bayesian perspective

Many research domains use data elicited from "citizen scientists" when a direct measure of a process is expensive or infeasible. However, participants may report incorrect estimates or classifications due to their lack of skill. We demonstrate how Bayesian hierarchical models can be used to learn about latent variables of interest, while accounting for the participants' abilities. The model is described in the context of an ecological application that involves crowdsourced classifications of georeferenced coral-reef images from the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. The latent variable of interest is the proportion of coral cover, which is a common indicator of coral reef health. The participants' abilities are expressed in terms of sensitivity and specificity of a correctly classified set of points on the images. The model also incorporates a spatial component, which allows prediction of the latent variable in locations that have not been surveyed. We show that the model outperforms traditional weighted-regression approaches used to account for uncertainty in citizen science data. Our approach produces more accurate regression coefficients and provides a better characterization of the latent process of interest. This new method is implemented in the probabilistic programming language Stan and can be applied to a wide number of problems that rely on uncertain citizen science data.Comment: 18 figures, 5 table

Comparing Bayesian models for multisensory cue combination without mandatory integration

Bayesian models of multisensory perception traditionally address the problem of estimating an underlying variable that is assumed to be the cause of the two sensory signals. The brain, however, has to solve a more general problem: it also has to establish which signals come from the same source and should be integrated, and which ones do not and should be segregated. In the last couple of years, a few models have been proposed to solve this problem in a Bayesian fashion. One of these has the strength that it formalizes the causal structure of sensory signals. We first compare these models on a formal level. Furthermore, we conduct a psychophysics experiment to test human performance in an auditory-visual spatial localization task in which integration is not mandatory. We find that the causal Bayesian inference model accounts for the data better than other models

Mathematics, statistics and archaeometry: the past 50 years or so

This review of developments in the use of mathematics and statistics in archaeometry over the past 50 years is partial, personal and 'broad-brush'. The view is expressed that it is in the past 30 years or so that the major developments have taken place. The view is also expressed that, with the exception of methods for analysing radiocarbon dates and increased computational power, mathematical and statistical methods that are currently used, and found to be useful in widespread areas of application such as provenance studies, don't differ fundamentally from what was being done 30 years ago

A Comprehensive Model of Audiovisual Perception: Both Percept and Temporal Dynamics

The sparse information captured by the sensory systems is used by the brain to apprehend the environment, for example, to spatially locate the source of audiovisual stimuli. This is an ill-posed inverse problem whose inherent uncertainty can be solved by jointly processing the information, as well as introducing constraints during this process, on the way this multisensory information is handled. This process and its result - the percept - depend on the contextual conditions perception takes place in. To date, perception has been investigated and modeled on the basis of either one of two of its dimensions: the percept or the temporal dynamics of the process. Here, we extend our previously proposed audiovisual perception model to predict both these dimensions to capture the phenomenon as a whole. Starting from a behavioral analysis, we use a data-driven approach to elicit a Bayesian network which infers the different percepts and dynamics of the process. Context-specific independence analyses enable us to use the model's structure to directly explore how different contexts affect the way subjects handle the same available information. Hence, we establish that, while the percepts yielded by a unisensory stimulus or by the non-fusion of multisensory stimuli may be similar, they result from different processes, as shown by their differing temporal dynamics. Moreover, our model predicts the impact of bottom-up (stimulus driven) factors as well as of top-down factors (induced by instruction manipulation) on both the perception process and the percept itself