Development of a Specification for Computer-Based Microscopic Evacuation Analyses and Simulations Identification of Success Factors Based on Case Study Research

Public security is constantly tested by new threats.Standards for public security are missing in many technicalaspects as well as the area of security management. Several researchgaps related to these fields exist, particularly regardingR&D stage standardization. The German project InfraNormaims to initiate the development of security standards and specifications.By using case study and participant observation methodologies,this paper gives insight into the development of such aspecification for simulation and modeling based on R&D stagestandardization and unveils new success factors. The identificationof success factors is based on a preliminary survey amongsecurity researchers which determined potential problems theyshould solve. Application fields of the findings include, in particular,fast track standardization procedures with voluntaryimplementation of the results, standardizations of R&D resultsand standardization projects from small groups

Spatial Modeling of Cold Lava Flood Evacuation in Kali Putih, Magelang Regency, Using Network Analyst

The event of Mount Merapi\u27s phreatic eruption, at least reminds us that the riverbank of Kali Putih which is located in Magelang Regency, Central Java Province has not been completely free from the threat of cold lava flood, especially during the rainy season. Therefore, a preventive action in relation to cold lava flood mitigation matters needs to be done. As part of the preventive action, a spatial modeling was carried out in Kali Putih to get an overview of the number and distribution of affected residential areas, the location and distribution of temporary evacuation sites (TES), the most effective number of final evacuation sites (FES), and various evacuation routes formed. Modeling began by calculating the level of vulnerability of cold lava in Sub Watershed of Kali Putih to get the most vulnerable areas for cold lava flood. 3D analyst and spatial analyst were used at this stage. The analysis was continued to calculate the number of affected settlements, using vector-based analysis. Furthermore, the determination of the number and distribution of TES, the number and distribution of FES, and determination of evacuation routes were carried out using Network Analyst. From this spatial modeling, the following results were obtained: 66 out of 179 residential areas were most likely affected by cold lava flood, 23 temporary evacuation sites (TES), and 7 final evacuation sites (FES), 57 evacuation routes from affected settlements to TES, and 22 evacuation routes from TES to FE

Optimal exit configuration of factory layout for a safer emergency evacuation using crowd simulation model and multi-objective artificial bee colony optimization

This work aims at providing a systematic method in producing a safer and optimal factory layout based on a crowd simulation model and the multi-objective artificial bee colony optimization technique. Apart, from ensuring the efficiency of manufacturing processes in planning a factory layout, it is also important that the safety aspect is taken into account. A factory is usually a closed working area consisting of machines, equipment, assembly lines as well as individual working space and other departments within the factory. In this environment, workers move around in the factory to perform different activities, and hence highly complex crowd behaviours that are influenced by the physical, social and psychological factors of the crowd might take place. Therefore, the layout of the factory must be carefully designed so that efficient movements of people can be obtained. Furthermore, during emergency situations that require efficient evacuation of workers from the factory building, a good factory layout will prevent or minimize the possibility of injuries during the evacuation process. This will reduce the evacuation egress time, which is the quantity used to evaluate the evacuation efficiency and the building's level of safety. One of the techniques to assess the evacuation efficiency of a particular space configuration is by using the crowd simulation model. Recent evidences suggest that the representation of crowd dynamics using a simulation model is useful, where experiments with real humans are too dangerous and not practical to be implemented. This work explains the method to provide optimal exit door configurations for a factory layout by analyzing the crowd evacuation time and the discomfort level, where the proposed optimum exit configurations will be compared with the original configuration for a better evacuation efficiency

Route Guidance Map for Emergency Evacuation

An efficient process of emergency evacuation must be guided. In the event of an evacuation instruction, a significant amount of time is spent by evacuees looking for a place of relative safety or an exit. Due to the ensuing stress and confusion evacuees try to follow others, consequently, all the exits are not used effectively. Therefore, it is important to develop a route guidance map for the emergency. The focus of the map is to help both, the evacuees and the authorities to perform evacuation efficiently. This paper presents a route guidance map for pedestrians that aims an efficient evacuation in case of an emergency. An agent-based simulation framework is used for the simulation of various scenarios to prepare the guiding map. A real world case study of Sarojini Nagar, Delhi is presented to test the presented methodology. Eventually, several strategic recommendations are provided for improving safety of existing infrastructure

Un modelo bi-criterio para la ubicación de albergues, como parte de un plan de evacuación en caso de inundaciones

Una de las ciudades mexicanas afectada recurrentemente por inundaciones es la de Villahermosa, capital del Estado de Tabasco, el cual se ubica al sureste de la república mexicana. Las inundaciones frecuentes hacen necesario contar con un plan de ayuda para apoyar y garantizar la seguridad de la población afectada. El objetivo de esta investigación fue diseñar un plan de evacuación de la población en caso de inundación, el cual incluye: 1) la apertura de albergues y centros de distribución, con un inventario pre-posicionado de paquetes de ayuda y 2 la asignación de individuos a albergues y rutas para su evacuación.  Empleando Sistemas de Información Geográfica y software especializado se simularon tres escenarios de inundación para la ciudad de Villahermosa: tirante de agua de 80 centímetros, 2 y 4 metros para identificar instalaciones que pudieran acondicionarse como albergues o centros de distribución, rutas de evacuación y zonas de la ciudad que resultarían inundadas.  Esta información se utilizó como entrada de un modelo de programación lineal entera con dos objetivos: minimizar el tiempo total requerido para evacuar a las personas y minimizar el costo total de abrir albergues y centros de distribución, y de usar las rutas de comunicación para trasladar a la población y abastecer los albergues. Como estos son objetivos que están en conflicto, se generaron puntos selectos del frente de Pareto, mediante el método de los pesos y la ε-restricción, que corresponden a distintos planes preventivos de evacuación los que garantizan el uso óptimo de los recursos económicos. Los modelos se resolvieron empleando el Sistema General de Modelaje Algebraico; primero se obtuvo la solución de mínimo costo, que satisface todas las restricciones para después minimizar el tiempo total de evacuación. Los puntos generados representan, por tanto, opciones con costo diferente para evacuar a la totalidad de la población afectada, dependiendo de las exigencias en el tiempo total para completar la evacuación, las autoridades pueden elegir la opción de menor costo. Como a medida que aumenta el tirante de inundación es necesario abastecer más albergues y evacuar más personas, la dificultad para resolver los modelos de optimización fue mayor para el escenario de un tirante de agua de 4 metros. Las soluciones generadas para este escenario representaron una mejora al plan de evacuación implementado por las autoridades durante la inundación de 2007, que ha sido la más grave registrada para Villahermosa.One of the Mexican cities recurrently affected by floods is Villahermosa, capital of the state of Tabasco located at the Southeast of Mexico. The frequent floods make necessary to have a prevention strategy to assist the city’s inhabitants and guarantee their safety.  The objective of this research was to design an evacuation plan for the city’s inhabitants in case of a severe flood, this plan needs to specify: 1) the number and location of shelters and distribution centers with a pre-positioned inventory and 2) the assignment of individuals to shelters as well as the selection of evacuation routes. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and specialized software (ArcView and IDRISI) were used to simulate three different inundation scenarios for Villahermosa city: 80 centimeters, 2 and 4 meters of water flood and then identify sites that fulfill safety and capacity standards to be used as shelters or distribution centers; evacuation routes and city areas that may result inundated were also identified under each scenario. This information was used as entries for a integer linear programming (ILP) model with two objectives: minimize the total time required to evacuate all persons from the affected areas and minimize the total cost of furnishing shelters and distribution centers, and using the roads to evacuate the population and to transport supplies to the shelters. Since these two objectives are in conflict, selected points of the efficient frontier were obtained by using the weight method and ε-constraint; each solution represents an evacuation plan that makes optimal use of resources. The mathematical models were solved by using the General Algebraic Modeling System; first the minimal cost solution that satisfies all restrictions was generated, followed by the minimization of total evacuation. The solutions represent options of different costs to accomplish the evacuation of all affected inhabitants; depending on the total evacuation time desired, a particular plan may be chosen. As the height of the water flood increases, more shelters are required and more individuals need to be evacuated, in consequence the optimization models for the 4 meters scenario were more difficult to solve. In particular, the solutions generated under this scenario outperform the evacuation plan implemented by the designed authorities during the 2007 flood - the most severe inundation that affected Villahermosa in the past

Effects of Data Resolution and Human Behavior on Large Scale Evacuation Simulations

Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) based macroscopic simulation studies are mostly applied in evacuation planning and operation areas. The large size in TAZ and aggregated information of macroscopic simulation underestimate the real evacuation performance. To take advantage of the high resolution demographic data LandScan USA (the zone size is much smaller than TAZ) and agent-based microscopic traffic simulation models, many new problems appeared and novel solutions are needed. A series of studies are conducted using LandScan USA Population Cells (LPC) data for evacuation assignments with different network configurations, travel demand models, and travelers compliance behavior. First, a new Multiple Source Nearest Destination Shortest Path (MSNDSP) problem is defined for generating Origin Destination matrix in evacuation assignments when using LandScan dataset. Second, a new agent-based traffic assignment framework using LandScan and TRANSIMS modules is proposed for evacuation planning and operation study. Impact analysis on traffic analysis area resolutions (TAZ vs LPC), evacuation start times (daytime vs nighttime), and departure time choice models (normal S shape model vs location based model) are studied. Third, based on the proposed framework, multi-scale network configurations (two levels of road networks and two scales of zone sizes) and three routing schemes (shortest network distance, highway biased, and shortest straight-line distance routes) are implemented for the evacuation performance comparison studies. Fourth, to study the impact of human behavior under evacuation operations, travelers compliance behavior with compliance levels from total complied to total non-complied are analyzed.Comment: PhD dissertation. UT Knoxville. 130 pages, 37 figures, 8 tables. University of Tennessee, 2013. http://trace.tennessee.edu/utk_graddiss/259

SIMULATION AND MATHEMATICAL MODELING TO SUPPORT COMMUNITY-WIDE EVACUATION DECISIONS FOR MULTIPLE POPULATION GROUPS

Evacuating a large population from an at-risk area has been the subject of extensive research over the past few decades. In order to measure trip completion and total evacuation times accurately, most researchers have implemented some combination of simulation and optimization methods to provide vehicular flow and congestion data. While the general at-risk population comprises the majority of travelers on the road network, there are often specific groups to consider when assessing the ability to evacuate an entire population. In particular, healthcare facilities (e.g., hospitals) may require evacuation, and the trip times may become an important health issue for patients being evacuated. Emergency vehicles from these facilities will share the same roadways and exit paths that are used by the local community, and it becomes increasingly important to minimize long travel times when patient care must be provided during transport. As the size of the area to model grows larger, predicting individual vehicle performance becomes more difficult. Standard transportation-specific micro-simulation, which models vehicle interactions and driver behaviors in detail, may perform very well on road networks that are smaller in size. In this research, a novel modeling approach, based on cell transmission and a speed-flow relationship, is proposed that combines the \u27micro\u27 and \u27meso\u27 approaches of simulation modeling. The model is developed using a general purpose simulation software package. This allows for an analysis at each vehicle level in the travel network. In addition, using these method and approaches, we can carry out dynamic trip planning where evacuees decide their route according to current road and traffic conditions. By translating this concept to an actual implementation, a traffic management center could identify current best travel routes between several origins and destinations, while continuing to update this list periodically. The model could suggest routings that favor either a user-optimal or system-optimal objective. This research also extended the concept of dynamic traffic assignment while modeling evacuation traffic. This extension includes the utilization of Wardrop\u27s System Optimum theory, where flow throughout the network is controlled in order to lower the risk of traffic congestion. Within this framework traffic flow is optimized to provide a route assignment under dynamic traffic conditions. This dissertation provides a practical and effective solution for a comprehensive evacuation analysis of a large, metropolitan area and the evacuation routes extending over 100 miles. Using the methodologies in this dissertation, we were able to create evacuation input data for general as well as special needs populations. These data were fed into the tailored simulation model to determine critical evacuation start times and evacuation windows for both the community-wide evacuation. Moreover, our analysis suggested that a hospital evacuation would need to precede a community-wide evacuation if the community-wide evacuation does not begin more than 24 hours before a hurricane landfall. To provide a more proactive approach, we further suggested a routing strategy, through a dynamic traffic assignment framework, for supporting an optimal flow of traffic during an evacuation. The dynamic traffic assignment approach also provides a mechanism for recommending specific time intervals when traffic should be diverted in order to reduce traffic congestion

Localización de albergues y evacuación de personas para casos de inundación en la costa peruana utilizando métodos de optimización multicriterio

Esta investigación surge del análisis de los desastres mundiales a nivel mundial y de América Latina lo cual revela un aumento considerable de los desastres causados por las inundaciones. En el Perú, el litoral de Lima y Callao concentra una elevada población expuesta a inundaciones por causa de un tsunami, asimismo, Lima y Callao revela condiciones de vulnerabilidad social; estos dos factores señalan la posibilidad de un desastre natural desencadenado por un tsunami. Por el lado institucional, el INDECI cuenta con planes de prevención ante emergencias cuyos procedimientos de toma de decisiones pueden mejorarse mediante el uso de técnicas de optimización. Ante un posible tsunami, un estudio realizado por la Dirección de Hidrografía y Navegación (DHN) de la Marina de Guerra del Perú, con la colaboración del Centro Peruano Japonés de Mitigación e Investigación de Desastres (CISMID) simularon los efectos de un terremoto en Lima Metropolitana. Con base en ese estudio y con la información del Sistema de Información sobre Recursos para Atención de Desastres (SIRAD), se identificó la cantidad de afectados, los albergues para la evacuación y los almacenes para trasladar ayuda humanitaria. El problema a resolver es de minimizar el tiempo de traslado de los afectados hacia albergues y minimizar los costos de transporte de la ayuda humanitaria desde los almacenes hasta los albergues en donde se alojarán los afectados. En esta tesis se propone técnicas de optimización multicriterio para la resolución del modelo matemático y se obtuvo soluciones óptimas sobre la frontera de Pareto. Luego, se escogió una solución óptima utilizando el método ELECTRE para cada escenario propuesto. Con las soluciones encontradas, se determinó las rutas de evacuación de las personas y la red de abastecimientos de ayuda humanitaria hacia los afectados que suman 89,972 y 234,232 personas para el primer y segundo escenario. Por último, se concluye que para un terremoto de 8.5 Mw el tiempo promedio de evacuación de los afectados es 58.59 minutos, el costo de transporte es S/.8,207 y el volumen de ayuda humanitaria es 5,046 m3. Por otro lado, en un terremoto de 9.0 Mw el tiempo promedio de evacuación de los afectados es 128.81 minutos, el costo de transporte es S/.95,483 y el volumen de ayuda humanitaria es 13,137 m3. Los distritos de Callao, Lurín, Chorrillos y Ventanilla no cuentan con suficientes albergues para atender a los afectados.Tesi

Disaster management and its economic implications

Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, aktuelle Forschungsschwerpunkte im Bereich des Katastrophenmanagements in der Operational Research Literatur aufzuzeigen. Katastrophenmanagement umfasst in diesem Zusammenhang einerseits Naturkatastrophen wie geophysikalische und hydro-meteorologische Katastrophen, technologische Katastrophen wie industrielle Unfälle, Transportunfälle und sonstige Unfälle, und andererseits die verschiedenen Formen des Terrorismus, allgemeinen Terrorismus sowie Bioterrorismus. Da die Anzahl und das Ausmaß von Katastrophen immer weiter zunehmen ist auch eine immer größere Notwendigkeit für die Entwicklung, den Einsatz und die wirtschaftliche Beurteilung der jeweiligen Strategien gegeben. Der erste Teil dieser Arbeit gibt einen Überblick über die Literatur im Bereich des Katastrophenmanagements und umfasst Simulation, Katastrophenmanagement in Krankenhäusern und die Rolle von Versicherungen im Katastrophenmanagementprozess. Im zweiten Teil wird eine Taxonomie entwickelt, deren Kategorien auf den Modellen und Ergebnissen der Literatur beruhen. Einerseits werden allgemeine Modelleigenschaften wie die Ebene im Katastrophenmanagementprozess, der Modelltyp und die Anwendungsgebiete der Modelle untersucht. Andererseits stellen die Art der Intervention und die Anwendbarkeit für die unterschiedlichen Katastrophenklassen weitere Kategorien der Taxonomie dar. Es wurden 90 Artikel, die beispielhaft für die Forschungsrichtungen im Bereich des Katastrophenmanagements der letzten 25 Jahre stehen, ausgewählt, und entsprechend den jeweiligen Kategorien der Taxonomie zugeordnet. Das Hauptaugenmerk der Taxonomie liegt auf der wirtschaftlichen Analyse, die wirksamkeitsbezogene, ressourcenbezogene und kostenbezogene Parameter umfasst. Es wird gezeigt ob und welche wirtschaftliche Analyse wie beispielsweise die Kosten-Nutzwert- Analyse, die Kosten-Wirksamkeits-Analyse und die Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse angewendet wird um die in den Artikeln beschriebenen Interventionen zu evaluieren. Es wird gezeigt, dass erhebliche Verbesserungen für die verschiedenen Katastrophentypen und in den verschiedenen Situationen erzielt werden können. Eingeschränkte Datenverfügbarkeit schränkt in vielen Fällen die Einsetzbarkeit der Modelle in realen Situationen ein. Im Allgemeinen ist erkennbar, dass Kooperation und Koordination zwischen den beteiligten Einheiten ausschlaggebend für den zeitgerechten und effizienten Einsatz der knappen Ressourcen sind. Oftmals erzielt der gemeinsame Einsatz mehrerer Maßnahme ein deutlich besseres Ergebnis als der Einsatz von lediglich einem einzigen Instrument. Die Taxonomie unterstreicht dass trotz der großen Fülle an Literatur im Bereich des Katastrophenmanagements nur wenige Autoren auf die Kosten-Nutzwert-Analyse, die Kosten-Wirksamkeits-Analyse und die Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse als Hilfsmittel zur wirtschaftlichen Analyse zurückgreifen. In Zukunft, um Interventionen erfolgreich evaluieren zu können oder die beste aus mehreren Interventionen bestimmen zu können wird es immer wichtiger werden, diese Art von wirtschaftlichen Analysen anzuwenden.This thesis intends to demonstrate current research directions in the field of disaster management in the Operational Research literature. Disaster management in this context comprises the management of natural, such as geophysical and hydro-meteorological, and technological disasters, such as industrial accidents, transportation accidents, and miscellaneous accidents, as well as the management of the different terrorism forms, general terrorism and bioterrorism. As the occurrence of disasters is getting more and more frequent and the accumulated loss of these events is getting higher and higher, there is a strong need for the development, implication and economic evaluation of strategies to counter these disasters. In the first part of the thesis, a general overview of the literature is given, including a focus on simulation, disaster management in hospitals, and the role of insurances in the disaster management process. The second part encompasses the taxonomy which focuses on models and outcomes presented in the literature. As a result of the review of the literature, appropriate categories for the disaster management taxonomy are derived. On the one hand, an overview of general model features, i.e., the level of disaster management, model type and methods of application is given. On the other hand, the type of intervention used and the practicability for different disaster types are discussed. 90 papers, illustrative main examples of the research directions of the last 25 years, were selected for deeper investigation and classified according to the main criteria analyzed in the articles. The main focus of the taxonomy lies on the economic analysis, which encompasses effectiveness-related, resource-related, and cost-related parameters and shows the type of economic analysis used in the literature. We analyze whether economic analysis, i.e., costutility, cost-effectiveness, and cost-benefit are used to investigate different interventions and what type of analysis has been chosen by the authors. Policy implications and results show that considerable improvements can be achieved for different disastrous events and in different situations. Limited data availability constrains the outcomes of the models and their applicability to real-world situations. In general, cooperation and coordination of the entities involved are crucial to guarantee timely and efficient assignment of scarce resources. Furthermore, different authors confirm that a combination of various measures often achieves a better outcome than if tools are used autonomously. The taxonomy has underlined that although there exists a vast disaster management literature dealing with various problems related to mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery from disasters, there are only a few authors evaluating the actions taken through economic analyses such cost-utility, cost-effectiveness, or cost-benefit analysis. In the future, to be able to evaluate interventions, or to figure out the most effective intervention among several interventions, it is crucial to stronger rely on the abovementioned economic analyses