Air pollution forecasts: An overview

© 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies

Modelling atmospheric ozone concentration using machine learning algorithms

Air quality monitoring is one of several important tasks carried out in the area of environmental science and engineering. Accordingly, the development of air quality predictive models can be very useful as such models can provide early warnings of pollution levels increasing to unsatisfactory levels. The literature review conducted within the research context of this thesis revealed that only a limited number of widely used machine learning algorithms have been employed for the modelling of the concentrations of atmospheric gases such as ozone, nitrogen oxides etc. Despite this observation the research and technology area of machine learning has recently advanced significantly with the introduction of ensemble learning techniques, convolutional and deep neural networks etc. Given these observations the research presented in this thesis aims to investigate the effective use of ensemble learning algorithms with optimised algorithmic settings and the appropriate choice of base layer algorithms to create effective and efficient models for the prediction and forecasting of specifically, ground level ozone (O3). Three main research contributions have been made by this thesis in the application area of modelling O3 concentrations. As the first contribution, the performance of several ensemble learning (Homogeneous and Heterogonous) algorithms were investigated and compared with all popular and widely used single base learning algorithms. The results have showed impressive prediction performance improvement obtainable by using meta learning (Bagging, Stacking, and Voting) algorithms. The performances of the three investigated meta learning algorithms were similar in nature giving an average 0.91 correlation coefficient, in prediction accuracy. Thus as a second contribution, the effective use of feature selection and parameter based optimisation was carried out in conjunction with the application of Multilayer Perceptron, Support Vector Machines, Random Forest and Bagging based learning techniques providing significant improvements in prediction accuracy. The third contribution of research presented in this thesis includes the univariate and multivariate forecasting of ozone concentrations based of optimised Ensemble Learning algorithms. The results reported supersedes the accuracy levels reported in forecasting Ozone concentration variations based on widely used, single base learning algorithms. In summary the research conducted within this thesis bridges an existing research gap in big data analytics related to environment pollution modelling, prediction and forecasting where present research is largely limited to using standard learning algorithms such as Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines often available within popular commercial software packages

Development of a virtual methodology based on physical and data-driven models to optimize engine calibration

Virtual engine calibration exploiting fully-physical plant models is the most promising solution for the reduction of time and cost of the traditional calibration process based on experimental testing. However, accuracy issues on the estimation of pollutant emissions are still unresolved. In this context, the paper shows how a virtual test rig can be built by combining a fully-physical engine model, featuring predictive combustion and NOx sub-models, with data-driven soot and particle number models. To this aim, a dedicated experimental campaign was carried out on a 1.6 liter EU6 diesel engine. A limited subset of the measured data was used to calibrate the predictive combustion and NOx sub-models. The measured data were also used to develop data-driven models to estimate soot and particulate emissions in terms of Filter Smoke Number (FSN) and Particle Number (PN), respectively. Inputs from engine calibration parameters (e.g., fuel injection timing and pressure) and combustion-related quantities computed by the physical model (e.g., combustion duration), were then merged. In this way, thanks to the combination of the two different datasets, the accuracy of the abovementioned models was improved by 20% for the FSN and 25% for the PN. The coupled physical and data-driven model was then used to optimize the engine calibration (fuel injection, air management) exploiting the Non-dominated Sorting genetic algorithm. The calibration obtained with the virtual methodology was then adopted on the engine test bench. A BSFC improvement of 10 g/kWh and a combustion reduction of 3.0 dB in comparison with the starting calibration was achieved

A review of artificial neural network models for ambient air pollution prediction

Research activity in the field of air pollution forecasting using artificial neural networks (ANNs) has increased dramatically in recent years. However, the development of ANN models entails levels of uncertainty given the black-box nature of ANNs. In this paper, a protocol by Maier et al. (2010) for ANN model development is presented and applied to assess journal papers dealing with air pollution forecasting using ANN models. The majority of the reviewed works are aimed at the long-term forecasting of outdoor PM10, PM2.5, and oxides of nitrogen, and ozone. The vast majority of the identified works utilised meteorological and source emissions predictors almost exclusively. Furthermore, ad-hoc approaches are found to be predominantly used for determining optimal model predictors, appropriate data subsets and the optimal model structure. Multilayer perceptron and ensemble-type models are predominantly implemented. Overall, the findings highlight the need for developing systematic protocols for developing powerful ANN models

Predicting road transport GHG emissions with application for Canada

Prediction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is vital to minimize their negative impact on climate change and global warming. In this thesis, we propose new models based on data mining and supervised machine learning algorithms (Regression and classification) for predicting GHG emissions arising from passenger and freight road transport in Canada. Four categories of models are investigated namely artificial neural network multilayer perceptron, multiple linear regression, multinomial logistic regression and decision tree models. From the application results, it was found that artificial neural network multilayer perceptron model showed better predictive performance over other models. Ensemble technique (Bagging & Boosting) was applied on the developed Multilayer Perceptron model which significantly improved the model's predictive performance. The independent variable importance analysis conducted on multilayer perceptron model disclosed that among the input attributes Light truck emissions, Car emissions, GDP transportation, Heavy truck emission, Light duty truck fuel efficiency, Interest rate (overnight), Medium Trucks Emission, Passenger car fuel efficiency and Gasoline Price have higher sensitivity on the output of the predictive model of GHG emissions by Canadian road transport. Scenario analysis is conducted using widely available socioeconomic, emission and fuel efficiency attributes as inputs in multilayer perceptron (with bagging) model. The results show that in all Canadian road transport GHG emission projection scenarios, all the way through 2030, emissions from Light trucks will hold a major share of GHG emissions. Thereby, rigorous efforts should be made in mitigating GHG emissions from these trucks (freight transport) to meet the ambitious GHG emission target for Canadian road transport

Spatiotemporal and temporal forecasting of ambient air pollution levels through data-intensive hybrid artificial neural network models

Outdoor air pollution (AP) is a serious public threat which has been linked to severe respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses, and premature deaths especially among those residing in highly urbanised cities. As such, there is a need to develop early-warning and risk management tools to alleviate its effects. The main objective of this research is to develop AP forecasting models based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) according to an identified model-building protocol from existing related works. Plain, hybrid and ensemble ANN model architectures were developed to estimate the temporal and spatiotemporal variability of hourly NO2 levels in several locations in the Greater London area. Wavelet decomposition was integrated with Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) models to address the issue of high variability of AP data and improve the estimation of peak AP levels. Block-splitting and crossvalidation procedures have been adapted to validate the models based on Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Willmott’s index of agreement (IA). The results of the proposed models present better performance than those from the benchmark models. For instance, the proposed wavelet-based hybrid approach provided 39.15% and 28.58% reductions in RMSE and MAE indices, respectively, on the performance of the benchmark MLP model results for the temporal forecasting of NO2 levels. The same approach reduced the RMSE and MAE indices of the benchmark LSTM model results by 12.45% and 20.08%, respectively, for the spatiotemporal estimation of NO2 levels in one site at Central London. The proposed hybrid deep learning approach offers great potential to be operational in providing air pollution forecasts in areas without a reliable database. The model-building protocol adapted in this thesis can also be applied to studies using measurements from other sites.Outdoor air pollution (AP) is a serious public threat which has been linked to severe respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses, and premature deaths especially among those residing in highly urbanised cities. As such, there is a need to develop early-warning and risk management tools to alleviate its effects. The main objective of this research is to develop AP forecasting models based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) according to an identified model-building protocol from existing related works. Plain, hybrid and ensemble ANN model architectures were developed to estimate the temporal and spatiotemporal variability of hourly NO2 levels in several locations in the Greater London area. Wavelet decomposition was integrated with Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and Long Short-term Memory (LSTM) models to address the issue of high variability of AP data and improve the estimation of peak AP levels. Block-splitting and crossvalidation procedures have been adapted to validate the models based on Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Willmott’s index of agreement (IA). The results of the proposed models present better performance than those from the benchmark models. For instance, the proposed wavelet-based hybrid approach provided 39.15% and 28.58% reductions in RMSE and MAE indices, respectively, on the performance of the benchmark MLP model results for the temporal forecasting of NO2 levels. The same approach reduced the RMSE and MAE indices of the benchmark LSTM model results by 12.45% and 20.08%, respectively, for the spatiotemporal estimation of NO2 levels in one site at Central London. The proposed hybrid deep learning approach offers great potential to be operational in providing air pollution forecasts in areas without a reliable database. The model-building protocol adapted in this thesis can also be applied to studies using measurements from other sites

Artificial neural networks model for air quality in the region of İzmir

Thesis (Master)--Izmir Institute of Technology, Environmental Engineering, Izmir, 2002Includes bibliographical references (leaves: 68-72)Text in English; Abstract: Turkish and Englishxiv, 88 leavesIn this study, a systematic approach to the development of the artificial neural networks based forecasting model is presented. S02, and dust values are predicted with different topologies, inputs and transfer functions. Temperature and wind speed values are used as input parameters for the models. The back-propagation learning algorithm is used to train the networks. R 2 (correlation coefficient), and daily average errors are employed to investigate the accuracy of the networks. MATLAB 6 neural network toolbox is used for this study. The study results indicate that the neural networks are able to make accurate predictions even with the limited number of parameters. Results also show that increasing the topology of the network and number of the inputs, increases the accuracy of the network. Best results for the S02 forecasting are obtained with the network with two hidden layers, hyperbolic tangent function as transfer function and three input variables (R2 was found as 0,94 and daily average error was found as 3,6 j..lg/m3).The most accurate results for the dust forecasting are also obtained with the network with two hidden layer, hyperbolic tangent function as transfer function and three input variables (R2 was found as 0,92 and daily average error was found as 3,64 j..lg/m3).S02 and dust predictions using their last seven days values as an input are also studied, and R2 is calculated as 0,94 and daily average error is calculated as 4,03 Jlg/m3 for S02 prediction and R2 is calculated as 0,93 and daily average error is calculated as 4,32 Jlg/m3 for dust prediction and these results show that the neural network can make accurate predictions