Forecasting of commercial sales with large scale Gaussian Processes

This paper argues that there has not been enough discussion in the field of applications of Gaussian Process for the fast moving consumer goods industry. Yet, this technique can be important as it e.g., can provide automatic feature relevance determination and the posterior mean can unlock insights on the data. Significant challenges are the large size and high dimensionality of commercial data at a point of sale. The study reviews approaches in the Gaussian Processes modeling for large data sets, evaluates their performance on commercial sales and shows value of this type of models as a decision-making tool for management.Comment: 1o pages, 5 figure

Analysing Human Mobility Patterns of Hiking Activities through Complex Network Theory

The exploitation of high volume of geolocalized data from social sport tracking applications of outdoor activities can be useful for natural resource planning and to understand the human mobility patterns during leisure activities. This geolocalized data represents the selection of hike activities according to subjective and objective factors such as personal goals, personal abilities, trail conditions or weather conditions. In our approach, human mobility patterns are analysed from trajectories which are generated by hikers. We propose the generation of the trail network identifying special points in the overlap of trajectories. Trail crossings and trailheads define our network and shape topological features. We analyse the trail network of Balearic Islands, as a case of study, using complex weighted network theory. The analysis is divided into the four seasons of the year to observe the impact of weather conditions on the network topology. The number of visited places does not decrease despite the large difference in the number of samples of the two seasons with larger and lower activity. It is in summer season where it is produced the most significant variation in the frequency and localization of activities from inland regions to coastal areas. Finally, we compare our model with other related studies where the network possesses a different purpose. One finding of our approach is the detection of regions with relevant importance where landscape interventions can be applied in function of the communities.Comment: 20 pages, 9 figures, accepte

Toward Universal Broadband in Rural Alaska

The TERRA-Southwest project is extending broadband service to 65 communities in the Bristol Bay, Bethel and Yukon-Kuskokwim regions. A stimulus project funded by a combination of grants and loans from the Rural Utilities Service (RUS), TERRA-Southwest has installed a middle-mile network using optical fiber and terrestrial microwave. Last-mile service will be through fixed wireless or interconnection with local telephone networks. The State of Alaska, through its designee Connect Alaska, also received federal stimulus funding from the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) for tasks that include support for an Alaska Broadband Task Force “to both formalize a strategic broadband plan for the state of Alaska and coordinate broadband activities across relevant agencies and organizations.” Thus, a study of the impact of the TERRA project in southwest Alaska is both relevant and timely. This first phase provides baseline data on current access to and use of ICTs and Internet connectivity in rural Alaska, and some insights about perceived benefits and potential barriers to adoption of broadband. It is also intended to provide guidance to the State Broadband Task Force in determining how the extension of broadband throughout the state could contribute to education, social services, and economic activities that would enhance Alaska’s future. Results of the research could also be used proactively to develop strategies to encourage broadband adoption, and to identify applications and support needed by users with limited ICT skills.Connect Alaska. The National Telecommunications and Information Administration. General Communications Incorporated.Part 1: An Analysis of Internet Use in Southwest Alaska / Introduction / Previous Studies / Current Connectivity / Analytical Framework and Research Methodology / Demographics / Mobile Phones: Access and Use / Access to the Internet / Internet Useage / Considerations about Internet Service / Interest in Broadband / Sources of News / Comparison with National Data / Internet Use by Businesses and Organizations / What Difference may Broadband make in the Region? / Conclusiongs / Part 2 Literature Review / Reference

Range selection by semi-domesticated reindeer (Rangifer tarandus tarandus) in relation to infrastructure and human activity in the boreal forest environment, northern Finland

During past decades, the amounts of infrastructure and human activity have increased in northern latitudes. Although the effects of human development on wild reindeer and caribou have been widely examined, its effects on semidomesticated reindeer and the reindeer herding environment are still poorly understood. We studied how seven different human activities (population centres, buildings, main roads, forest roads, snowmobile tracks, skiing trails, and gold digging areas) affect the range selection by semi-domesticated reindeer in northern Finnish Lapland using GPS tracking data on 29 female reindeer. Data were analyzed using compositional analysis on two spatial scales (home range selection and within-home-range selection) and in three seasonal periods (early winter, late winter, and summer-autumn). Results showed that during winter, reindeer strongly avoided almost all studied human activities when selecting home range areas (for forest roads, the direction of the effect was unclear), but in summer and autumn, only some of those activities were important. Within the selected home range areas, pasture use by reindeer appears to be less sensitive to infrastructure and human activity, probably because reindeer were able to avoid these anthropogenic disturbances at the upper level of habitat selection. The size of the potential cumulative area affected by infrastructure varied seasonally between 27.5% and 39.0% of the study area when calculated on the basis of home range selection, and between 7.2% and 20.3% when calculated from within-home-range selection. The strongest avoidance of infrastructure was found in late winter on both scales of range selection, but weakest avoidance was in early winter for home range selection and in summer for within-home-range selection. Cumulative impacts of different human activities on the usability value of reindeer ranges should be taken into account when planning new land-use operations in the areas important for the reindeer herding.Au cours des dernières décennies, la quantité d’infrastructures et d’activités humaines s’est accrue dans les latitudes nordiques. Bien que les incidences du développement humain sur le renne sauvage et le caribou aient été examinées à grande échelle, ses incidences sur le renne semi-domestiqué et sur le domaine vital du renne sont toujours mal comprises. Nous avons étudié la manière dont sept activités humaines différentes (centres de population, bâtiments, routes principales, routes forestières, pistes de motoneige, pistes de ski et zones d’exploitation aurifère) exercent une influence sur la sélection du domaine du renne semi-domestiqué dans la partie finlandaise de la Laponie du nord à l’aide de données de poursuite obtenues au moyen d’un GPS apposé à 29 rennes femelles. Les données ont été analysées au moyen d’une analyse compositionnelle fondée sur deux échelles spatiales (la sélection du domaine vital et la sélection à l’intérieur du domaine vital) et sur trois périodes saisonnières (début de l’hiver, fin de l’hiver et été-automne). Les résultats ont indiqué que pendant l’hiver, le renne évitait dans la plus grande mesure du possible presque toutes les activités humaines étudiées quand il choisissait son domaine vital (dans le cas des routes forestières, le sens de l’effet n’était pas clair), mais à l’été et à l’automne, seulement certaines de ces activités revêtaient de l’importance. À l’intérieur des domaines vitaux sélectionnés, le pâturage utilisé par le renne semble moins sensible à l’infrastructure et à l’activité humaine, probablement parce que le renne était capable d’éviter ces perturbations anthropogéniques au niveau supérieur de la sélection de l’habitat. La grandeur de la zone cumulative potentielle touchée par l’infrastructure variait s’une saison à l’autre entre 27,5 % et 39,0 % de l’aire étudiée lorsque calculée en fonction de la sélection du domaine vital, et entre 7,2 % et 20,3 % lorsque calculée en fonction de la sélection de l’intérieur du domaine vital. C’est à la fin de l’hiver que le renne évitait le plus possible l’infrastructure pour ce qui est des deux échelles de sélection du domaine vital, tandis que c’est au début de l’hiver que le renne faisait le moins d’évitement dans le cas de la sélection du domaine vital, et à l’été dans le cas de la sélection de l’intérieur du domaine vital. Les incidences cumulatives de diverses activités humaines sur la valeur d’utilisation des domaines vitaux du renne devraient être prises en considération dans le cadre de la planification de nouvelles exploitations d’utilisation des terres dans les zones où les formations de troupeaux de rennes sont importantes