The dynamics of consensus in group decision making: investigating the pairwise interactions between fuzzy preferences.

In this paper we present an overview of the soft consensus model in group decision making and we investigate the dynamical patterns generated by the fundamental pairwise preference interactions on which the model is based. The dynamical mechanism of the soft consensus model is driven by the minimization of a cost function combining a collective measure of dissensus with an individual mechanism of opinion changing aversion. The dissensus measure plays a key role in the model and induces a network of pairwise interactions between the individual preferences. The structure of fuzzy relations is present at both the individual and the collective levels of description of the soft consensus model: pairwise preference intensities between alternatives at the individual level, and pairwise interaction coefficients between decision makers at the collective level. The collective measure of dissensus is based on non linear scaling functions of the linguistic quantifier type and expresses the degree to which most of the decision makers disagree with respect to their preferences regarding the most relevant alternatives. The graded notion of consensus underlying the dissensus measure is central to the dynamical unfolding of the model. The original formulation of the soft consensus model in terms of standard numerical preferences has been recently extended in order to allow decision makers to express their preferences by means of triangular fuzzy numbers. An appropriate notion of distance between triangular fuzzy numbers has been chosen for the construction of the collective dissensus measure. In the extended formulation of the soft consensus model the extra degrees of freedom associated with the triangular fuzzy preferences, combined with non linear nature of the pairwise preference interactions, generate various interesting and suggestive dynamical patterns. In the present paper we investigate these dynamical patterns which are illustrated by means of a number of computer simulations.

A contribution to consensus modeling in decision-making by means of linguistic assessments

Decision-making is an active field of research. Specifically, in recent times, a lot of contributions have been presented on decision-making under linguistic assessments. To tackle this kind of processes, hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets have been introduced to grasp the uncertainty inherent in human reasoning when expressing preferences. This thesis introduces an extension of the set of hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets to capture differences between non-compatible assessments. Based on this extension, a distance between linguistic assessments is defined to quantify differences between several opinions. This distance is used in turn to present a representative opinion from a group in a decision-making process. In addition, different consensus measures are introduced to determine the level of agreement or disagreement within a decision-making group and are used to define a decision maker’s profile to keep track of their dissension with respect to the group as well as their level of hesitancy. Furthermore, with the aim of allowing decision makers to choose the linguistic terms that they feel more comfortable with, the concept of free double hierarchy hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set is developed in this thesis. Finally, a new approach of the TOPSIS methodology for processes in which the assessments are given by means of free double hierarchy hesitant fuzzy information is presented to rank alternatives under these circumstances.Postprint (published version

Aplicação de técnicas de Clustering ao contexto da Tomada de Decisão em Grupo

Nowadays, decisions made by executives and managers are primarily made in a group. Therefore, group decision-making is a process where a group of people called participants work together to analyze a set of variables, considering and evaluating a set of alternatives to select one or more solutions. There are many problems associated with group decision-making, namely when the participants cannot meet for any reason, ranging from schedule incompatibility to being in different countries with different time zones. To support this process, Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) evolved to what today we call web-based GDSS. In GDSS, argumentation is ideal since it makes it easier to use justifications and explanations in interactions between decision-makers so they can sustain their opinions. Aspect Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA) is a subfield of Argument Mining closely related to Natural Language Processing. It intends to classify opinions at the aspect level and identify the elements of an opinion. Applying ABSA techniques to Group Decision Making Context results in the automatic identification of alternatives and criteria, for example. This automatic identification is essential to reduce the time decision-makers take to step themselves up on Group Decision Support Systems and offer them various insights and knowledge on the discussion they are participants. One of these insights can be arguments getting used by the decision-makers about an alternative. Therefore, this dissertation proposes a methodology that uses an unsupervised technique, Clustering, and aims to segment the participants of a discussion based on arguments used so it can produce knowledge from the current information in the GDSS. This methodology can be hosted in a web service that follows a micro-service architecture and utilizes Data Preprocessing and Intra-sentence Segmentation in addition to Clustering to achieve the objectives of the dissertation. Word Embedding is needed when we apply clustering techniques to natural language text to transform the natural language text into vectors usable by the clustering techniques. In addition to Word Embedding, Dimensionality Reduction techniques were tested to improve the results. Maintaining the same Preprocessing steps and varying the chosen Clustering techniques, Word Embedders, and Dimensionality Reduction techniques came up with the best approach. This approach consisted of the KMeans++ clustering technique, using SBERT as the word embedder with UMAP dimensionality reduction, reducing the number of dimensions to 2. This experiment achieved a Silhouette Score of 0.63 with 8 clusters on the baseball dataset, which wielded good cluster results based on their manual review and Wordclouds. The same approach obtained a Silhouette Score of 0.59 with 16 clusters on the car brand dataset, which we used as an approach validation dataset.Atualmente, as decisões tomadas por gestores e executivos são maioritariamente realizadas em grupo. Sendo assim, a tomada de decisão em grupo é um processo no qual um grupo de pessoas denominadas de participantes, atuam em conjunto, analisando um conjunto de variáveis, considerando e avaliando um conjunto de alternativas com o objetivo de selecionar uma ou mais soluções. Existem muitos problemas associados ao processo de tomada de decisão, principalmente quando os participantes não têm possibilidades de se reunirem (Exs.: Os participantes encontramse em diferentes locais, os países onde estão têm fusos horários diferentes, incompatibilidades de agenda, etc.). Para suportar este processo de tomada de decisão, os Sistemas de Apoio à Tomada de Decisão em Grupo (SADG) evoluíram para o que hoje se chamam de Sistemas de Apoio à Tomada de Decisão em Grupo baseados na Web. Num SADG, argumentação é ideal pois facilita a utilização de justificações e explicações nas interações entre decisores para que possam suster as suas opiniões. Aspect Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA) é uma área de Argument Mining correlacionada com o Processamento de Linguagem Natural. Esta área pretende classificar opiniões ao nível do aspeto da frase e identificar os elementos de uma opinião. Aplicando técnicas de ABSA à Tomada de Decisão em Grupo resulta na identificação automática de alternativas e critérios por exemplo. Esta identificação automática é essencial para reduzir o tempo que os decisores gastam a customizarem-se no SADG e oferece aos mesmos conhecimento e entendimentos sobre a discussão ao qual participam. Um destes entendimentos pode ser os argumentos a serem usados pelos decisores sobre uma alternativa. Assim, esta dissertação propõe uma metodologia que utiliza uma técnica não-supervisionada, Clustering, com o objetivo de segmentar os participantes de uma discussão com base nos argumentos usados pelos mesmos de modo a produzir conhecimento com a informação atual no SADG. Esta metodologia pode ser colocada num serviço web que segue a arquitetura micro serviços e utiliza Preprocessamento de Dados e Segmentação Intra Frase em conjunto com o Clustering para atingir os objetivos desta dissertação. Word Embedding também é necessário para aplicar técnicas de Clustering a texto em linguagem natural para transformar o texto em vetores que possam ser usados pelas técnicas de Clustering. Também Técnicas de Redução de Dimensionalidade também foram testadas de modo a melhorar os resultados. Mantendo os passos de Preprocessamento e variando as técnicas de Clustering, Word Embedder e as técnicas de Redução de Dimensionalidade de modo a encontrar a melhor abordagem. Essa abordagem consiste na utilização da técnica de Clustering KMeans++ com o SBERT como Word Embedder e UMAP como a técnica de redução de dimensionalidade, reduzindo as dimensões iniciais para duas. Esta experiência obteve um Silhouette Score de 0.63 com 8 clusters no dataset de baseball, que resultou em bons resultados de cluster com base na sua revisão manual e visualização dos WordClouds. A mesma abordagem obteve um Silhouette Score de 0.59 com 16 clusters no dataset das marcas de carros, ao qual usamos esse dataset com validação de abordagem

Argumentation dialogues in web-based GDSS: an approach using machine learning techniques

Tese de doutoramento em InformaticsA tomada de decisão está presente no dia a dia de qualquer pessoa, mesmo que muitas vezes ela não tenha consciência disso. As decisões podem estar relacionadas com problemas quotidianos, ou podem estar relacionadas com questões mais complexas, como é o caso das questões organizacionais. Normalmente, no contexto organizacional, as decisões são tomadas em grupo. Os Sistemas de Apoio à Decisão em Grupo têm sido estudados ao longo das últimas décadas com o objetivo de melhorar o apoio prestado aos decisores nas mais diversas situações e/ou problemas a resolver. Existem duas abordagens principais à implementação de Sistemas de Apoio à Decisão em Grupo: a abordagem clássica, baseada na agregação matemática das preferências dos diferentes elementos do grupo e as abordagens baseadas na negociação automática (e.g. Teoria dos Jogos, Argumentação, entre outras). Os atuais Sistemas de Apoio à Decisão em Grupo baseados em argumentação podem gerar uma enorme quantidade de dados. O objetivo deste trabalho de investigação é estudar e desenvolver modelos utilizando técnicas de aprendizagem automática para extrair conhecimento dos diálogos argumentativos realizados pelos decisores, mais concretamente, pretende-se criar modelos para analisar, classificar e processar esses dados, potencializando a geração de novo conhecimento que será utilizado tanto por agentes inteligentes, como por decisiores reais. Promovendo desta forma a obtenção de consenso entre os membros do grupo. Com base no estudo da literatura e nos desafios em aberto neste domínio, formulou-se a seguinte hipótese de investigação - É possível usar técnicas de aprendizagem automática para apoiar diálogos argumentativos em Sistemas de Apoio à Decisão em Grupo baseados na web. No âmbito dos trabalhos desenvolvidos, foram aplicados algoritmos de classificação supervisionados a um conjunto de dados contendo argumentos extraídos de debates online, criando um classificador de frases argumentativas que pode classificar automaticamente (A favor/Contra) frases argumentativas trocadas no contexto da tomada de decisão. Foi desenvolvido um modelo de clustering dinâmico para organizar as conversas com base nos argumentos utilizados. Além disso, foi proposto um Sistema de Apoio à Decisão em Grupo baseado na web que possibilita apoiar grupos de decisores independentemente de sua localização geográfica. O sistema permite a criação de problemas multicritério e a configuração das preferências, intenções e interesses de cada decisor. Este sistema de apoio à decisão baseado na web inclui os dashboards de relatórios inteligentes que são gerados através dos resultados dos trabalhos alcançados pelos modelos anteriores já referidos. A concretização de cada um dos objetivos permitiu validar as questões de investigação identificadas e assim responder positivamente à hipótese definida.Decision-making is present in anyone’s daily life, even if they are often unaware of it. Decisions can be related to everyday problems, or they can be related to more complex issues, such as organizational issues. Normally, in the organizational context, decisions are made in groups. Group Decision Support Systems have been studied over the past decades with the aim of improving the support provided to decision-makers in the most diverse situations and/or problems to be solved. There are two main approaches to implementing Group Decision Support Systems: the classical approach, based on the mathematical aggregation of the preferences of the different elements of the group, and the approaches based on automatic negotiation (e.g. Game Theory, Argumentation, among others). Current argumentation-based Group Decision Support Systems can generate an enormous amount of data. The objective of this research work is to study and develop models using automatic learning techniques to extract knowledge from argumentative dialogues carried out by decision-makers, more specifically, it is intended to create models to analyze, classify and process these data, enhancing the generation of new knowledge that will be used both by intelligent agents and by real decision-makers. Promoting in this way the achievement of consensus among the members of the group. Based on the literature study and the open challenges in this domain, the following research hypothesis was formulated - It is possible to use machine learning techniques to support argumentative dialogues in web-based Group Decision Support Systems. As part of the work developed, supervised classification algorithms were applied to a data set containing arguments extracted from online debates, creating an argumentative sentence classifier that can automatically classify (For/Against) argumentative sentences exchanged in the context of decision-making. A dynamic clustering model was developed to organize conversations based on the arguments used. In addition, a web-based Group Decision Support System was proposed that makes it possible to support groups of decision-makers regardless of their geographic location. The system allows the creation of multicriteria problems and the configuration of preferences, intentions, and interests of each decision-maker. This web-based decision support system includes dashboards of intelligent reports that are generated through the results of the work achieved by the previous models already mentioned. The achievement of each objective allowed validation of the identified research questions and thus responded positively to the defined hypothesis.I also thank to Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, for the Ph.D. grant funding with the reference: SFRH/BD/137150/2018

Consensus-based clustering under hesitant qualitative assessments

Producción CientíficaIn this paper, we consider that agents judge the feasible alternatives through linguistic terms – when they are confident in their opinions – or linguistic expressions formed by several consecutive linguistic terms – when they hesitate. In this context, we propose an agglomerative hierarchical clustering process where the clusters of agents are generated by using a distance-based consensus measure.Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (ECO2012-32178)Junta de Castilla y León (programa de apoyo a proyectos de investigación – Ref. VA066U13

A fuzzy hierarchical multiple criteria group decision support system - Decider - and its applications

Decider is a Fuzzy Hierarchical Multiple Criteria Group Decision Support System (FHMC-GDSS) designed for dealing with subjective, in particular linguistic, information and objective information simultaneously to support group decision making particularly on evaluation. In this chapter, the fuzzy aggregation decision model, functions and structure of Decider are introduced. The ideas to resolve decision and evaluation problems we have faced in the development and application of Decider are presented. Two real applications of the Decider system are briefly illustrated. Finally, we discuss our further research in this area. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

Multi-Stakeholder Consensus Decision-Making Framework Based on Trust and Risk

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)This thesis combines human and machine intelligence for consensus decision-making, and it contains four interrelated research areas. Before presenting the four research areas, this thesis presents a literature review on decision-making using two criteria: trust and risk. The analysis involves studying the individual and the multi-stakeholder decision-making. Also, it explores the relationship between trust and risk to provide insight on how to apply them when making any decision. This thesis presents a grouping procedure of the existing trust-based multi-stakeholder decision-making schemes by considering the group decision-making process and models. In the first research area, this thesis presents the foundation of building multi-stakeholder consensus decision-making (MSCDM). This thesis describes trust-based multi-stakeholder decision-making for water allocation to help the participants select a solution that comes from the best model. Several criteria are involved when deciding on a solution such as trust, damage, and benefit. This thesis considers Jain's fairness index as an indicator of reaching balance or equality for the stakeholder's needs. The preferred scenario is when having a high trust, low damages and high benefits. The worst scenario involves having low trust, high damage, and low benefit. The model is dynamic by adapting to the changes over time. The decision to select is the solution that is fair for almost everyone. In the second research area, this thesis presents a MSCDM, which is a generic framework that coordinates the decision-making rounds among stakeholders based on their influence toward each other, as represented by the trust relationship among them. This thesis describes the MSCDM framework that helps to find a decision the stakeholders can agree upon. Reaching a consensus decision might require several rounds where stakeholders negotiate by rating each other. This thesis presents the results of implementing MSCDM and evaluates the effect of trust on the consensus achievement and the reduction in the number of rounds needed to reach the final decision. This thesis presents Rating Convergence in the implemented MSCDM framework, and such convergence is a result of changes in the stakeholders' rating behavior in each round. This thesis evaluates the effect of trust on the rating changes by measuring the distance of the choices made by the stakeholders. Trust is useful in decreasing the distances. In the third research area, this thesis presents Rating Convergence in the implemented MSCDM framework, and such convergence is a result of changes in stakeholders' rating behavior in each round. This thesis evaluates the effect of trust on the rating changes by measuring the perturbation in the rating matrix. Trust is useful in increasing the rating matrix perturbation. Such perturbation helps to decrease the number of rounds. Therefore, trust helps to increase the speed of agreeing upon the same decision through the influence. In the fourth research area, this thesis presents Rating Aggregation operators in the implemented MSCDM framework. This thesis addresses the need for aggregating the stakeholders' ratings while they negotiate on the round of decisions to compute the consensus achievement. This thesis presents four aggregation operators: weighted sum (WS), weighted product (WP), weighted product similarity measure (WPSM), and weighted exponent similarity measure (WESM). This thesis studies the performance of those aggregation operators in terms of consensus achievement and the number of rounds needed. The consensus threshold controls the performance of these operators. The contribution of this thesis lays the foundation for developing a framework for MSCDM that facilitates reaching the consensus decision by accounting for the stakeholders' influences toward one another. Trust represents the influence

Alternative Ranking-Based Clustering and Reliability Index-Based Consensus Reaching Process for Hesitant Fuzzy Large Scale Group Decision Making

The paper addresses the growing importance of Large Scale Group Decision Making (LSGDM) problems, focusing on hesitant fuzzy LSGDM. It introduces a Reliability Index-based Consensus Reaching Process (RI-CRP) to enhance efficiency. The proposed method assesses the ordinal consistency of decision makers' (DMs) information, measures deviation, and assigns a reliability index to DMs' opinions. An unreliable DMs management method is presented to filter out unreliable information. Additionally, an Alternative Ranking-based Clustering (ARC) method with hesitant fuzzy reciprocal preference relations is proposed to improve the efficiency of RI-CRP. The numerical example demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the ARC method and RI-CRP for hesitant fuzzy LSGDM problems.Este artículo aborda la creciente importancia de los problemas de Toma de Decisiones en Grupo a Gran Escala (LSGDM), centrándose en el LSGDM difuso vacilante. Introduce un Proceso de Consenso Basado en Índices de Fiabilidad (RI-CRP) para mejorar la eficiencia. El método propuesto evalúa la consistencia ordinal de la información de los decisores, mide la desviación y asigna un índice de fiabilidad a las opiniones de los decisores. Se presenta un método de gestión de los decisores poco fiables para filtrar la información poco fiable. Además, se propone un método de agrupamiento alternativo basado en la clasificación (ARC) con relaciones de preferencia recíproca difusas vacilantes para mejorar la eficacia de RI-CRP. El ejemplo numérico demuestra la viabilidad y eficacia del método ARC y del RI-CRP para problemas LSGDM difusos vacilantes.Instituto Interuniversitario de Investigación en Data Science and Computational Intelligence (DaSCI

Quality of Information in Mobile Crowdsensing: Survey and Research Challenges

Smartphones have become the most pervasive devices in people's lives, and are clearly transforming the way we live and perceive technology. Today's smartphones benefit from almost ubiquitous Internet connectivity and come equipped with a plethora of inexpensive yet powerful embedded sensors, such as accelerometer, gyroscope, microphone, and camera. This unique combination has enabled revolutionary applications based on the mobile crowdsensing paradigm, such as real-time road traffic monitoring, air and noise pollution, crime control, and wildlife monitoring, just to name a few. Differently from prior sensing paradigms, humans are now the primary actors of the sensing process, since they become fundamental in retrieving reliable and up-to-date information about the event being monitored. As humans may behave unreliably or maliciously, assessing and guaranteeing Quality of Information (QoI) becomes more important than ever. In this paper, we provide a new framework for defining and enforcing the QoI in mobile crowdsensing, and analyze in depth the current state-of-the-art on the topic. We also outline novel research challenges, along with possible directions of future work.Comment: To appear in ACM Transactions on Sensor Networks (TOSN