Multi-agent knowledge integration mechanism using particle swarm optimization

This is the post-print version of the final paper published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change. The published article is available from the link below. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. Copyright @ 2011 Elsevier B.V.Unstructured group decision-making is burdened with several central difficulties: unifying the knowledge of multiple experts in an unbiased manner and computational inefficiencies. In addition, a proper means of storing such unified knowledge for later use has not yet been established. Storage difficulties stem from of the integration of the logic underlying multiple experts' decision-making processes and the structured quantification of the impact of each opinion on the final product. To address these difficulties, this paper proposes a novel approach called the multiple agent-based knowledge integration mechanism (MAKIM), in which a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is used as a knowledge representation and storage vehicle. In this approach, we use particle swarm optimization (PSO) to adjust causal relationships and causality coefficients from the perspective of global optimization. Once an optimized FCM is constructed an agent based model (ABM) is applied to the inference of the FCM to solve real world problem. The final aggregate knowledge is stored in FCM form and is used to produce proper inference results for other target problems. To test the validity of our approach, we applied MAKIM to a real-world group decision-making problem, an IT project risk assessment, and found MAKIM to be statistically robust.Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (Korea

An intelligent system for risk classification of stock investment projects

The proposed paper demonstrates that a hybrid fuzzy neural network can serve as a risk classifier of stock investment projects. The training algorithm for the regular part of the network is based on bidirectional incremental evolution proving more efficient than direct evolution. The approach is compared with other crisp and soft investment appraisal and trading techniques, while building a multimodel domain representation for an intelligent decision support system. Thus the advantages of each model are utilised while looking at the investment problem from different perspectives. The empirical results are based on UK companies traded on the London Stock Exchange

Smart Home and Artificial Intelligence as Environment for the Implementation of New Technologies

The technologies of a smart home and artificial intelligence (AI) are now inextricably linked. The perception and consideration of these technologies as a single system will make it possible to significantly simplify the approach to their study, design and implementation. The introduction of AI in managing the infrastructure of a smart home is a process of irreversible close future at the level with personal assistants and autopilots. It is extremely important to standardize, create and follow the typical models of information gathering and device management in a smart home, which should lead in the future to create a data analysis model and decision making through the software implementation of a specialized AI. AI techniques such as multi-agent systems, neural networks, fuzzy logic will form the basis for the functioning of a smart home in the future. The problems of diversity of data and models and the absence of centralized popular team decisions in this area significantly slow down further development. A big problem is a low percentage of open source data and code in the smart home and the AI when the research results are mostly unpublished and difficult to reproduce and implement independently. The proposed ways of finding solutions to models and standards can significantly accelerate the development of specialized AIs to manage a smart home and create an environment for the emergence of native innovative solutions based on analysis of data from sensors collected by monitoring systems of smart home. Particular attention should be paid to the search for resource savings and the profit from surpluses that will push for the development of these technologies and the transition from a level of prospect to technology exchange and the acquisition of benefits.The technologies of a smart home and artificial intelligence (AI) are now inextricably linked. The perception and consideration of these technologies as a single system will make it possible to significantly simplify the approach to their study, design and implementation. The introduction of AI in managing the infrastructure of a smart home is a process of irreversible close future at the level with personal assistants and autopilots. It is extremely important to standardize, create and follow the typical models of information gathering and device management in a smart home, which should lead in the future to create a data analysis model and decision making through the software implementation of a specialized AI. AI techniques such as multi-agent systems, neural networks, fuzzy logic will form the basis for the functioning of a smart home in the future. The problems of diversity of data and models and the absence of centralized popular team decisions in this area significantly slow down further development. A big problem is a low percentage of open source data and code in the smart home and the AI when the research results are mostly unpublished and difficult to reproduce and implement independently. The proposed ways of finding solutions to models and standards can significantly accelerate the development of specialized AIs to manage a smart home and create an environment for the emergence of native innovative solutions based on analysis of data from sensors collected by monitoring systems of smart home. Particular attention should be paid to the search for resource savings and the profit from surpluses that will push for the development of these technologies and the transition from a level of prospect to technology exchange and the acquisition of benefits

New perspectives on realism, tractability, and complexity in economics

Fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms are used to rework more realistic (and more complex) models of competitive markets. The resulting equilibria are significantly different from the ones predicted from the usual static analysis; the methodology solves the Walrasian problem of how markets can reach equilibrium, starting with firms trading at disparate prices. The modified equilibria found in these complex market models involve some mutual self-restraint on the part of the agents involved, relative to economically rational behaviour. Research (using similar techniques) into the evolution of collaborative behaviours in economics, and of altruism generally, is summarized; and the joint significance of these two bodies of work for public policy is reviewed. The possible extension of the fuzzy/ genetic methodology to other technical aspects of economics (including international trade theory, and development) is also discussed, as are the limitations to the usefulness of any type of theory in political domains. For the latter purpose, a more differentiated concept of rationality, appropriate to ill-structured choices, is developed. The philosophical case for laissez-faire policies is considered briefly; and the prospects for change in the way we ‘do economics’ are analysed

Soft computing and its use in risk management

New analytical methods have begun to be used in risk management. The methods such as fuzzy logic, neural network and genetic algorithms rank among them. The article shortly describes these methods and represents their possible applications in the risk management. These methods can contribute to decreasing of the risk and thus the human and material losses

AI and OR in management of operations: history and trends

The last decade has seen a considerable growth in the use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for operations management with the aim of finding solutions to problems that are increasing in complexity and scale. This paper begins by setting the context for the survey through a historical perspective of OR and AI. An extensive survey of applications of AI techniques for operations management, covering a total of over 1200 papers published from 1995 to 2004 is then presented. The survey utilizes Elsevier's ScienceDirect database as a source. Hence, the survey may not cover all the relevant journals but includes a sufficiently wide range of publications to make it representative of the research in the field. The papers are categorized into four areas of operations management: (a) design, (b) scheduling, (c) process planning and control and (d) quality, maintenance and fault diagnosis. Each of the four areas is categorized in terms of the AI techniques used: genetic algorithms, case-based reasoning, knowledge-based systems, fuzzy logic and hybrid techniques. The trends over the last decade are identified, discussed with respect to expected trends and directions for future work suggested

Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Agents: Towards the Next Step of Capital Budgeting Decision Support

The economic life of large investments is long and thus necessitates constant dynamic managerial actions. To be able to act in an optimal way in the dynamic management of large investments managers need the support of advanced analytical tools. They need to have constant access to information about the real time situation of the investment, as well as, access to up-to-date information about changes in the business environment. What is more challenging, they need to integrate qualitative information into quantitative analysis process, and to integrate foresight information into the capital budgeting process. In this paper we will look at how emerging soft computing technologies, specifically fuzzy logic and intelligent agents, will help to provide a better support in such a context and then to frame a support system that will make an integrated application of the aforementioned technologies. We will first develop a holistic framework for an agent-facilitated capital budgeting system using a fuzzy real option approach. We will then discuss how intelligent agents can be applied to collect decision information, both qualitative and quantitative, and to facilitate the integration of foresight information into capital budgeting process. Integration of qualitative information into quantitative analysis process will be discussed. Methods for integrating qualitative and quantitative information into fuzzy numbers, as well as, methods for using the fuzzy numbers in capital budgeting will be presented. A specification of how the agents can be constructed is elaborated.Intelligent Agents, Fuzzy Sets, Capital Budgeting, Real Options, DSS

Fuzzy Logic and Corporate Governance Theories

[Excerpt] “Fuzzy logic is a theory that categorizes concepts or things belonging to more than one group. A methodology that explains how things function in multiple groups (not fully in one group or another) offers advantages when no one definition or membership in a group accounts for belonging to multiple groups. The principal/agent model of corporate governance has some characteristics of fuzzy logic theory. Under traditional agency theory of corporate governance, shareholders, directors, and senior corporate officers each belong to groups having multiple attributes. In the principal/agent model of corporate governance, shareholders are owners or principals; directors are shareholders and agents of the corporation; and senior corporate officers are directors’ agents, shareholders’ agents, and agents of the corporation. Each one functions within multiple groups serving multiple agency roles, and each owes fiduciary duties that vary depending on whose agent they are functioning as. Such a multi-dimensional role for corporate actors is a consequence of multi-definitional corporate purpose within agency theory of governance. This multi-dimensional group membership is not easily reconciled within agency theory and is therefore not always explained. However, traditional corporate governance theory can borrow another basic tenet of fuzzy logic theory. Fuzzy theory not only accounts for membership in multiple groups, but also explains how things work because they are multidimensional or ambiguous. This article seeks to explain the ambiguities of corporate governance theory and suggests a framework that accounts for the multi-agent role of senior corporate officers of public companies. It offers a kind of fuzzy logic theory for understanding the fiduciary duties of senior officers. The purpose of this article is to evaluate other models of corporate governance that account for the multi-agent role of senior officers of public companies and assess the ability of various models to hold senior officers accountable to the corporation.