Power System Parameters Forecasting Using Hilbert-Huang Transform and Machine Learning

A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. Apart from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The section 2 presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learning-based algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting

Wavelet feature extraction and genetic algorithm for biomarker detection in colorectal cancer data

Biomarkers which predict patient’s survival can play an important role in medical diagnosis and treatment. How to select the significant biomarkers from hundreds of protein markers is a key step in survival analysis. In this paper a novel method is proposed to detect the prognostic biomarkers ofsurvival in colorectal cancer patients using wavelet analysis, genetic algorithm, and Bayes classifier. One dimensional discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is normally used to reduce the dimensionality of biomedical data. In this study one dimensional continuous wavelet transform (CWT) was proposed to extract the features of colorectal cancer data. One dimensional CWT has no ability to reduce dimensionality of data, but captures the missing features of DWT, and is complementary part of DWT. Genetic algorithm was performed on extracted wavelet coefficients to select the optimized features, using Bayes classifier to build its fitness function. The corresponding protein markers were located based on the position of optimized features. Kaplan-Meier curve and Cox regression model 2 were used to evaluate the performance of selected biomarkers. Experiments were conducted on colorectal cancer dataset and several significant biomarkers were detected. A new protein biomarker CD46 was found to significantly associate with survival time

Application of Stationary Wavelet Support Vector Machines for the Prediction of Economic Recessions

This paper examines the efficiency of various approaches on the classification and prediction of economic expansion and recession periods in United Kingdom. Four approaches are applied. The first is discrete choice models using Logit and Probit regressions, while the second approach is a Markov Switching Regime (MSR) Model with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities. The third approach refers on Support Vector Machines (SVM), while the fourth approach proposed in this study is a Stationary Wavelet SVM modelling. The findings show that SW-SVM and MSR present the best forecasting performance, in the out-of sample period. In addition, the forecasts for period 2012-2015 are provided using all approaches

Learning to Rank based on Analogical Reasoning

Object ranking or "learning to rank" is an important problem in the realm of preference learning. On the basis of training data in the form of a set of rankings of objects represented as feature vectors, the goal is to learn a ranking function that predicts a linear order of any new set of objects. In this paper, we propose a new approach to object ranking based on principles of analogical reasoning. More specifically, our inference pattern is formalized in terms of so-called analogical proportions and can be summarized as follows: Given objects $A,B,C,D$, if object $A$ is known to be preferred to $B$, and $C$ relates to $D$ as $A$ relates to $B$, then $C$ is (supposedly) preferred to $D$. Our method applies this pattern as a main building block and combines it with ideas and techniques from instance-based learning and rank aggregation. Based on first experimental results for data sets from various domains (sports, education, tourism, etc.), we conclude that our approach is highly competitive. It appears to be specifically interesting in situations in which the objects are coming from different subdomains, and which hence require a kind of knowledge transfer.Comment: Thirty-Second AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AAAI-18), 8 page