Modelling the economic efficiency of using different strategies to control Porcine Reproductive & Respiratory Syndrome at herd level

PRRS is among the diseases with the highest economic impact in pig production worldwide. Different strategies have been developed and applied to combat PRRS at farm level. The broad variety of available intervention strategies makes it difficult to decide on the most cost-efficient strategy for a given farm situation, as it depends on many farm-individual factors like disease severity, prices or farm structure. Aim of this study was to create a simulation tool to estimate the cost-efficiency of different control strategies at individual farm level. Baseline is a model that estimates the costs of PRRS, based on changes in health and productivity, in a specific farm setting (e.g. farm type, herd size, type of batch farrowing). The model evaluates different intervention scenarios: depopulation/repopulation (D/R), close & roll-over (C&R), mass vaccination of sows (MS), mass vaccination of sows and vaccination of piglets (MS + piglets), improvements in internal biosecurity (BSM), and combinations of vaccinations with BSM. Data on improvement in health and productivity parameters for each intervention were obtained through literature review and from expert opinions. The economic efficiency of the different strategies was assessed over 5 years through investment appraisals: the resulting expected value (EV) indicated the most cost-effective strategy. Calculations were performed for 5 example scenarios with varying farm type (farrow-to-finish – breeding herd), disease severity (slightly – moderately – severely affected) and PRRSV detection (yes – no). The assumed herd size was 1000 sows with farm and price structure as commonly found in Germany. In a moderately affected (moderate deviations in health and productivity parameters from what could be expected in an average negative herd), unstable farrow-to-finish herd, the most cost-efficient strategies according to their median EV were C&R (€1′126′807) and MS + piglets (€ 1′114′649). In a slightly affected farrow-to-finish herd, no virus detected, the highest median EV was for MS + piglets (€ 721′745) and MS (€ 664′111). Results indicate that the expected benefits of interventions and the most efficient strategy depend on the individual farm situation, e.g. disease severity. The model provides new insights regarding the cost-efficiency of various PRRSV intervention strategies at farm level. It is a valuable tool for farmers and veterinarians to estimate expected economic consequences of an intervention for a specific farm setting and thus enables a better informed decision

Viability of the Raw Cotton Production in Spain After the Decoupling of the Subsidies

Considering the latest reform of the EU's Cotton Regulation of 29th April 2004, which will come into force in the 2006/07 season, we analyse its impact on the cotton production sector of Andalusia. The decoupling of subsidies implies that producers will be entitled to 65 percent of the amount received in the reference period (three years) irrespective of the crop chosen to grow. The remaining 35 percent (slightly higher) is paid as cotton are a payment. In this research, first from a survey carried out in 2004 we obtained six groups of producers using fact or analysis and cluster analysis. Then, based on this characterization, we assess the impact of two policy scenarios: (a) the implementation of the reform without any additional measures, and (b) the addition of a complementary environmentally based area payment plus the modulation of the decoupled subsidy up to 50 percent according to raw cotton quality. In the first scenario most producers would reduce the use of inputs to a minimum and leave the raw cotton in the fields. In the second scenario the production of cotton would shift from conventional toward Integrated Production with a reduction of 30% with respect to the current hectarage.Cotton, Spain, Mid-Term Reform, Simulation, Multi-Criteria Decision Making, Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries,

The role of social interaction in farmers' climate adaptation choice

Adaptation to climate change might not always occur, with potentially\ud catastrophic results. Success depends on coordinated actions at both\ud governmental and individual levels (public and private adaptation). Even for a “wet” country like the Netherlands, climate change projections show that the frequency and severity of droughts are likely to increase. Freshwater is an important factor for agricultural production. A deficit causes damage to crop production and consequently to a loss of income. Adaptation is the key to decrease farmers’ vulnerability at the micro level and the sector’s vulnerability at the macro level. Individual adaptation decision-making is determined by the behavior of economic agents and social interaction among them. This can be best studied with agentbased modelling. Given the uncertainty about future weather conditions and the costs and effectiveness of adaptation strategies, a farmer in the model uses a cognitive process (or heuristic) to make adaptation decisions. In this process, he can rely on his experiences and on information from interactions within his social network. Interaction leads to the spread of information and knowledge that causes learning. Learning changes the conditions for individual adaptation decisionmaking. All these interactions cause emergent phenomena: the diffusion of adaptation strategies and a change of drought vulnerability of the agricultural sector. In this paper, we present a conceptual model and the first implementation of an agent-based model. The aim is to study the role of interaction in a farmer’s social network on adaptation decisions and on the diffusion of adaptation strategies\ud and vulnerability of the agricultural sector. Micro-level survey data will be used to parameterize agents’ behavioral and interaction rules at a later stage. This knowledge is necessary for the successful design of public adaptation strategies, since governmental adaptation actions need to be fine-tuned to private adaptation behavior

Measuring the Efficiency Effect of Banning Anti-Microbial Growth Promoters: The Case of Danish Pig Production

This study examines the effect of banning antimicrobial growth promoters on efficiency in the production of weaned and slaughter (finishing) pigs. We focus on the reaction of producers and production efficiency. We evaluate the estimated output and input shadow prices relative to market prices to analyse producer reactions and capture the impact on production efficiency by evaluating the effects of the ban changes on total factor productivity. To this end we model a multi product shadow profit function and incorporate output and input related shadow prices by using a second order flexible functional form. The development in total factor productivity is subsequently measured by calculating the Malmquist index on the farm level. To make infer-ences on the effect of banning growth promoters over time we regress in a second estimation step the changes in total factor productivity on potential explanatory factors by applying a bootstrapped censored regression procedure. Our results suggest that there was no effect of the ban on total factor productivity due to outputs and inputs substitution. Breeding pigs are pro-duced at the expense of weaned and finisher pigs. Feed input is over utilised relative to other inputs. The high shadow prices for substituting outputs are associated with better export mar-ket prices. These findings may have critical implications for the slaughtering plants with over capacity.animal health economics, food economics, shadow prices, efficiency, antimicrobial growth promoters, pig production, Livestock Production/Industries, Q1, Q11, Q12, Q24,

Modeling the Costs of Postpartum Dysgalactia Syndrome and Locomotory Disorders on Sow Productivity and Replacement

Peer reviewe

The use of selection to improve sow longevity

The objective of this dissertation was to evaluate multiple approaches to incorporating sow longevity or lifetime sow productivity into a selection program. Sow longevity can be selected for using indicator traits, such as structural soundness and lameness. In the first study, objective measurements to detect sow lameness were examined. Lameness was chemically induced for a short time period in multiparous sows and their weight distribution and walking gait were objectively measured in the days following lameness induction. Using a classification tree analysis, it was determined that the mean weight being placed on each leg was the most predictive measurement when determining whether the leg was sound or lame after injection. The weight distribution measures had a greater predictive ability compared to the walking gait indicators. These measures could be used to select sows that are less likely to become lame and be removed from the breeding herd. While reducing the lameness instances in a herd would improve sow longevity, direct selection for longevity would be desirable. In the second study, genetic correlations between purebred and crossbred sow longevity were estimated. Most genetic improvement programs are based on an assumed relationship between purebred performance in a nucleus herd and their relatives\u27 crossbred performance in a commercial herd; however, this study found that there was little to no genetic correlation between purebred and crossbred sow longevity for this population. While longevity is heritable at both the nucleus and commercial levels, results from this study indicate that little improvement would be made in crossbred longevity if selection relies solely on purebred information. One way to select for sow longevity would be to estimate purebred genomic breeding values using records from a related crossbred population. A spreadsheet for estimating the total costs associated with incorporating genome-enabled selection into a swine breeding program was developed as the final part of this dissertation. This tool will aid producers in estimating the economic viability of incorporating genome-enabled selection into their specific breeding program. Based on the results from these projects, it is recommended that a commercial test herd be implemented as part of a selection program to improve longevity or sow productive lifetime. If a genetic company can succeed in improving sow longevity through an effective breeding program, production efficiency and profitability can be improved for commercial swine operations

Agricultural Risk Management - Experiences from an Action Research Approach

A new model for risk management in agriculture is described in the paper. The risk model is constructed as a context dependent process, which includes four main phases. The model is aimed at agricultural advisors, who wish to facilitate and disseminate risk management to farmers. It is developed and tested by an action research approach in an attempt to make risk management more applicable on family farms. Our obtained experiences indicate that farmers don't apply probabilistic thinking and other concepts according to formal decision theory.Risk management, consulting, action research, farm families, Risk and Uncertainty,