Approximate parameter inference in systems biology using gradient matching: a comparative evaluation

Background: A challenging problem in current systems biology is that of parameter inference in biological pathways expressed as coupled ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Conventional methods that repeatedly numerically solve the ODEs have large associated computational costs. Aimed at reducing this cost, new concepts using gradient matching have been proposed, which bypass the need for numerical integration. This paper presents a recently established adaptive gradient matching approach, using Gaussian processes, combined with a parallel tempering scheme, and conducts a comparative evaluation with current state of the art methods used for parameter inference in ODEs. Among these contemporary methods is a technique based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS). This has previously shown promising results for parameter estimation, but under lax experimental settings. We look at a range of scenarios to test the robustness of this method. We also change the approach of inferring the penalty parameter from AIC to cross validation to improve the stability of the method. Methodology: Methodology for the recently proposed adaptive gradient matching method using Gaussian processes, upon which we build our new method, is provided. Details of a competing method using reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces are also described here. Results: We conduct a comparative analysis for the methods described in this paper, using two benchmark ODE systems. The analyses are repeated under different experimental settings, to observe the sensitivity of the techniques. Conclusions: Our study reveals that for known noise variance, our proposed method based on Gaussian processes and parallel tempering achieves overall the best performance. When the noise variance is unknown, the RKHS method proves to be more robust

Detecting adaptive evolution in phylogenetic comparative analysis using the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model

Phylogenetic comparative analysis is an approach to inferring evolutionary process from a combination of phylogenetic and phenotypic data. The last few years have seen increasingly sophisticated models employed in the evaluation of more and more detailed evolutionary hypotheses, including adaptive hypotheses with multiple selective optima and hypotheses with rate variation within and across lineages. The statistical performance of these sophisticated models has received relatively little systematic attention, however. We conducted an extensive simulation study to quantify the statistical properties of a class of models toward the simpler end of the spectrum that model phenotypic evolution using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes. We focused on identifying where, how, and why these methods break down so that users can apply them with greater understanding of their strengths and weaknesses. Our analysis identifies three key determinants of performance: a discriminability ratio, a signal-to-noise ratio, and the number of taxa sampled. Interestingly, we find that model-selection power can be high even in regions that were previously thought to be difficult, such as when tree size is small. On the other hand, we find that model parameters are in many circumstances difficult to estimate accurately, indicating a relative paucity of information in the data relative to these parameters. Nevertheless, we note that accurate model selection is often possible when parameters are only weakly identified. Our results have implications for more sophisticated methods inasmuch as the latter are generalizations of the case we study.Comment: 38 pages, in press at Systematic Biolog

Reverse engineering of drug induced DNA damage response signalling pathway reveals dual outcomes of ATM kinase inhibition

The DNA Damage Response (DDR) pathway represents a signalling mechanism that is activated in eukaryotic cells following DNA damage and comprises of proteins involved in DNA damage detection, DNA repair, cell cycle arrest and apoptosis. This pathway consists of an intricate network of signalling interactions driving the cellular ability to recognise DNA damage and recruit specialised proteins to take decisions between DNA repair or apoptosis. ATM and ATR are central components of the DDR pathway. The activities of these kinases are vital in DNA damage induced phosphorylational induction of DDR substrates. Here, firstly we have experimentally determined DDR signalling network surrounding the ATM/ATR pathway induced following double stranded DNA damage by monitoring and quantifying time dependent inductions of their phosphorylated forms and their key substrates. We next involved an automated inference of unsupervised predictive models of time series data to generate in silico (molecular) interaction maps. We characterized the complex signalling network through system analysis and gradual utilisation of small time series measurements of key substrates through a novel network inference algorithm. Furthermore, we demonstrate an application of an assumption-free reverse engineering of the intricate signalling network of the activated ATM/ATR pathway. We next studied the consequences of such drug induced inductions as well as of time dependent ATM kinase inhibition on cell survival through further biological experiments. Intermediate and temporal modelling outcomes revealed the distinct signaling profile associated with ATM kinase activity and inhibition and explained the underlying signalling mechanism for dual ATM functionality in cytotoxic and cytoprotective pathways