Prediction of Malaysian–Indonesian Oil Production and Consumption Using Fuzzy Time Series Model

Fuzzy time series has been implemented for data prediction in the various sectors, such as education, finance-economic, energy, traffic accident, others. Moreover, many proposed models have been presented to improve the forecasting accuracy. However, the interval-length adjustment and the out-sample forecast procedure are still issues in fuzzy time series forecasting, where both issues are yet clearly investigated in the pre�vious studies. In this paper, a new adjustment of the interval-length and the partition number of the data set is proposed. Additionally, the determining of the out-sample forecast is also discussed. The yearly oil production (OP) and oil consumption (OC) of Malaysia and Indonesia from 1965 to 2012 are examined to evaluate the performance of fuzzy time series and the probabilistic time series models. The result indicates that the fuzzy time series model is better than the probabilistic models, such as regression time series, exponential smoothing in terms of the forecasting accuracy. This paper thus highlights the effect of the proposed interval length in reducing the forecasting error sig�nificantly, as well as the main differences between the fuzzy and probabilistic time series models. Keywords: Fuzzy time series; index of linguistic; oil production–consumption; interval�length; forecasting accurac

Superstructure optimization and forecasting of decentralized energy generation based on palm oil biomass

Malaysia realizes the importance of addressing the concern of energy security to accomplish the nation’s policy objectives by mitigating the issues of security, energy efficiency and environmental impacts. To meet the rising demand for energy and incorporation of Green Technology in the national policy, Malaysian government during the last three decades has developed several strategies and policies. National Green Technology Policy was an initiative, which marked the firm determination of the government to incorporate Green Technology in the nation’s economy policy. Malaysia has abundant biomass resources, especially oil palm residues with power generation potential of about 2400 MW, which is promising for decentralized electricity generation (DEG). The aim of this study is to determine the best location to install appropriate biomass electricity generation plant in Johor and forecasting the electricity market (i.e. electricity demand) in order to provide a strategic assessment of measures for the local energy planners of Malaysia, as an optimization bottom-up model. A superstructure was developed and optimized to represent DEG system. The problem was formulated as Mixed Integer Nonlinear Programming (MINLP) and implemented in General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). Electricity demand was modeled using Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). Based on GAMS and ANFIS models, palm oil biomass based DEG system and distribution network scenarios for current as well as next ten, twenty and thirty years have been proposed for State of Johor, Malaysia. Biomass from sixty six Palm Oil Mills (POMs) would be collected and transported to eight selected locations. Empirical findings of this study suggested that total production cost is minimized by placing biomass gasification based integrated combine cycle (BIGCC) power plant of 50MW at all eight locations. For 2020 Scenario, no additional infrastructure will be required. For 2030 Scenario, additional units of BIGCC of 50MW will be required at five out of eight locations. While for 2040 Scenario, again no additional infrastructure development will be needed. Total minimum cost varied from 6.31 M$/yr for current scenario to 22.63 M$/yr for 2040 scenario

Appropriate Wisdom, Technology, and Management toward Environmental Sustainability for Development

The protection and maintenance of environmental resources for future generations require responsible interaction between humans and the environment in order to avoid wasting natural resources. According to an ancient Native American proverb, “We do not inherit the Earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children.” This indigenous wisdom has the potential to play a significant role in defining environmental sustainability. Recent technological advances could sustain humankind and allow for comfortable living. However, not all of these advancements have the potential to protect the environment for future generations. Developing societies and maintaining the sustainability of the ecosystem require appropriate wisdom, technology, and management collaboration. This book is a collection of 19 important articles (15 research articles, 3 review papers, and 1 editorial) that were published in the Special Issue of the journal Sustainability entitled “Appropriate Wisdom, Technology, and Management toward Environmental Sustainability for Development” during 2021-2022.addresses the policymakers and decision-makers who are willing to develop societies that practice environmental sustainability, by collecting the most recent contributions on the appropriate wisdom, technology, and management regarding the different aspects of a community that can retain environmental sustainability

Methane emission inventory and forecasting in Malaysia

The increase in global surface temperature by 0.74 ± 0.18 oC between 1901 and 2000 as a result of global warming has become a serious threat. It is caused by the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere due to human activities. The major greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Records show that only carbon dioxide received detailed investigation but not methane, hence the motive behind this study. This study examined the emission of methane from six main sources in Malaysia. Data for the inventories of the production of these six sources were taken from 1980 – 2011 and were used to forecast emissions from 2012 – 2020. The data were sourced from Ministries, Departments and International Agencies. Six categories of animals were studied under livestock with their corresponding methane emissions from 1980 – 2011 computed as follows: cattle: 1993Gg (6.13%), buffaloes: 341Gg (10.8%), sheep: 24Gg (0.8%), goats: 55Gg (1.8%), horses: 3Gg (0.1%), poultry: 161Gg (5.1%), and pigs: 579Gg (18.3%). Methane emissions from the other sources from 1980 to 2011 are rice production: 1617Gg (0.02%), crude oil production: 8016636Gg (99.8%), Wastewater (POME): 11362Gg (0.14%), municipal solid waste landfills: 3294Gg (0.04%), coal mining: 14Gg (0.0002%). Forecasting of methane emissions from 2012 to 2020 were carried out using the Box-Jenkins ARIMA method. There were close similarities between the observed and forecast values. In the year 2020 predicted methane emissions will be cattle: 113Gg (72.2%), buffaloes: 8.0Gg (5.1%), sheep: 1.2Gg (0.8%), goats: 4.2 Gg (2.7%), horses: 0.2Gg (0.1%), pigs: 13.2Gg (8.4%), and poultry: 16.8Gg (10.7%) for the livestock sector. For other sectors the forecast will be wastewater: 836Gg for wastewater, 4.7 Gg for coal production, 503,208 Gg for crude oil production, 50.6 Gg for rice production, and 167 Gg from municipal solid waste landfills. Population and GDP will rise to 33.26 million and 329US $ billion by 2020, respectively. Optimisation was carried out after running a linear regression to determine the significant parameters. The equation developed was a nonlinear programming problem and was solved using sequential quadratic programming (SQL) and implemented on MATLAB environment. Sensitivity analysis carried out on the constraints showed the need to maintain the present livestock and rice production levels. The amount of meat protein currently available far exceeds the dietary protein requirement by more than five times. Several mitigation measures aimed towards reducing future methane emissions in Malaysia were also suggested for the various sources. These are in line with the country’s commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% over the 2005 level by 2020. The use of renewable energy in the energy mix was suggested in line with the government’s five fuel policy and increase in the number of vehicles using gas was also proposed

A comprehensive review of crop yield prediction using machine learning approaches with special emphasis on palm oil yield prediction

An early and reliable estimation of crop yield is essential in quantitative and financial evaluation at the field level for determining strategic plans in agricultural commodities for import-export policies and doubling farmer’s incomes. Crop yield predictions are carried out to estimate higher crop yield through the use of machine learning algorithms which are one of the challenging issues in the agricultural sector. Due to this developing significance of crop yield prediction, this article provides an exhaustive review on the use of machine learning algorithms to predict crop yield with special emphasis on palm oil yield prediction. Initially, the current status of palm oil yield around the world is presented, along with a brief discussion on the overview of widely used features and prediction algorithms. Then, the critical evaluation of the state-of-the-art machine learning-based crop yield prediction, machine learning application in the palm oil industry and comparative analysis of related studies are presented. Consequently, a detailed study of the advantages and difficulties related to machine learning-based crop yield prediction and proper identification of current and future challenges to the agricultural industry is presented. The potential solutions are additionally prescribed in order to alleviate existing problems in crop yield prediction. Since one of the major objectives of this study is to explore the future perspectives of machine learning-based palm oil yield prediction, the areas including application of remote sensing, plant’s growth and disease recognition, mapping and tree counting, optimum features and algorithms have been broadly discussed. Finally, a prospective architecture of machine learning-based palm oil yield prediction has been proposed based on the critical evaluation of existing related studies. This technology will fulfill its promise by performing new research challenges in the analysis of crop yield prediction and the development

Pameran Reka Cipta, Penyelidikan dan Inovasi (PRPI) 2011

PRPI 2011 kini telah memasuki tahun penganjurannya yang ke-9. Pameran penyelidikan di UPM telah bermula sejak tahun 1997 semasa Exhibition & Seminar Harnessing for Industry Advantage. Pada tahun 2002, Pameran Reka Cipta dan Penyelidikan (PRP) buat pertama kali telah diadakan dengan menggunakan konsep pertandingan hasil projek penyelidikan yang telah dijalankan oleh para penyelidik UPM. Kejayaan penganjuran PRP 2002 telah merintis usaha untuk menjadikannya sebagai aktiviti tahunan UPM dan ianya terus berkembang sejajar dengan nama barunya yang ditukar kepada Pameran Reka Cipta, Penyelidikan dan Inovasi yang bermula penganjurannya pada tahun 2005. Sebagai kesinambungan daripada kejayaan penganjuran PRPI 2006, 2007, 2008 dan 2009 yang lalu dan status UPM sebagai salah sebuah Universiti Penyelidikan, PRPI 2011 kali ini yang merupakan pameran penyelidikan yang terbesar di UPM terus dilaksanakan dengan aspirasi dan semangat yang lebih jitu. Pameran ini juga menjadi pelantar kepada para penyelidik untuk mengenengahkan hasil penyelidikan yang dijalankan dan penemuan baharu kepada umum. Di samping itu ianya juga menjadi penanda aras terhadap kualiti sesuatu projek penyelidikan bagi melayakkan para penyelidik UPM untuk menyertai pameran di peringkat kebangsaan dan seterusnya antarabangsa. Adalah diharapkan pelaksanaan PRPI 2011 ini akan dapat menyemarakkan budaya penyelidikan di kalangan staf dan juga pelajar UPM sekaligus menjadikan UPM sebagai Universiti Penyelidikan yang cemerlang di negara ini