An investigation into machine learning approaches for forecasting spatio-temporal demand in ride-hailing service

In this paper, we present machine learning approaches for characterizing and forecasting the short-term demand for on-demand ride-hailing services. We propose the spatio-temporal estimation of the demand that is a function of variable effects related to traffic, pricing and weather conditions. With respect to the methodology, a single decision tree, bootstrap-aggregated (bagged) decision trees, random forest, boosted decision trees, and artificial neural network for regression have been adapted and systematically compared using various statistics, e.g. R-square, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and slope. To better assess the quality of the models, they have been tested on a real case study using the data of DiDi Chuxing, the main on-demand ride hailing service provider in China. In the current study, 199,584 time-slots describing the spatio-temporal ride-hailing demand has been extracted with an aggregated-time interval of 10 mins. All the methods are trained and validated on the basis of two independent samples from this dataset. The results revealed that boosted decision trees provide the best prediction accuracy (RMSE=16.41), while avoiding the risk of over-fitting, followed by artificial neural network (20.09), random forest (23.50), bagged decision trees (24.29) and single decision tree (33.55).Comment: Currently under review for journal publicatio

An Online Learning and Optimization Approach for Competitor-Aware Management of Shared Mobility Systems

An important trend in mobility is the consumption of mobility as-a-service heralding in the age of freefloating vehicle sharing (FFVS) systems. In many markets such fleets compete. We investigate how realtime competitor information can create value for operators in this context. We focus on the vehicle supply decision which is a large operational concern. We show empirically that local market shares directly depend on the share of available vehicles in a location, which underlines the value potential of competitor awareness. We leverage this insight by proposing a novel decision support system for optimal management of FFVS systems under competition. We proceed in two phases, (1) a predictive phase and (2) a prescriptive phase. In phase (1), we compile a spatio-temporal dataset based on Car2Go and DriveNow transactions in Berlin, which we supplement with temporal, geographical and weather data. We partition the city into hexagonal tiles and observe vehicle supply per tile at the start of each period. We train machine learning models to predict vehicle inflows and vehicle outflows during the next period to derive total supply and demand. We find that inflows and outflows can be predicted with high accuracy using similar models. We test different temporal and spatial resolutions and find that spatial resolution incurs larger performance penalties. In phase (2), we formulate a myopic mixed integer non-linear programming model with a margin-maximizing objective function. The model trades off additional market share gains against the cost of re-locating vehicles, which enables operators to assign vehicles optimally across the service network. Our numerical studies on the case of Car2Go and DriveNow demonstrate that this competitor-aware model is capable of profitably improving market share by up to 1.4% or 3.4% for human-based and autonomous relocation respectively in a prefect foresight scenario and by up to 0.8% and 1.8% respectively when using predicted values

An Economic and Life Cycle Analysis of Regional Land Use and Transportation Plans, Research Report 11-25

Travel and emissions models are commonly applied to evaluate the change in passenger and commercial travel and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land use and transportation plans. Analyses conducted by the Sacramento Area Council of Governments predict a decline in such travel and emissions from their land use and transportation plan (the “Preferred Blueprint” or PRB scenario) relative to a “Business-As-Usual” scenario (BAU). However, the lifecycle GHG effects due to changes in production and consumption associated with transportation and land use plans are rarely, if ever, conducted. An earlier study conducted by the authors, applied a spatial economic model (Sacramento PECAS) to the PRB plan and found that lower labor, transport, and rental costs increased producer and consumer surplus and production and consumption relative to the BAU. As a result, lifecycle GHG emissions from these upstream economic activities may increase. At the same time, lifecycle GHG emissions associated with the manufacture of construction materials for housing may decline due to a shift in the plan from larger luxury homes to smaller multi-family homes in the plan. To explore the net impact of these opposing GHG impacts, the current study used the economic production and consumption data from the PRB and BAU scenarios as simulated with the Sacramento PECAS model as inputs to estimate the change in lifecycle GHG emissions. The economic input-output lifecycle assessment model is applied to evaluate effects related to changes in economic production and consumption as well as housing construction. This study also builds on the findings from two previous studies, which suggest potential economic incentives for jurisdictional non-compliance with Sustainable Communities Strategies (SCSs) under Senate Bill 375 (also known as the “anti-sprawl” bill). SB 375 does not require local governments to adopt general plans that are consistent with the land use plans included in SCSs, and thus such incentives could jeopardize implementation of SCSs and achievement of GHG goals. In this study, a set of scenarios is simulated with the Sacramento PECAS model, in which multiple jurisdictions partially pursue the BAU at differing rates. The PRB is treated as a straw or example SCS. The scenarios are evaluated to understand how non-conformity may influence the supply of housing by type, and holding other factors constant, the geographic and income distribution of rents, wages, commute costs, and consumer surplus

Usage Trend Analysis and Forecasting for Ride Sharing: A case of Bildeleringen : An empirical approach using the car-specific data

Car-sharing is gaining a lot of popularity amongst users, as more people are finding various instances and benefits to use this service. With this development, there is increasing number of companies setting up car-sharing platforms to satisfy this growing demand. As is characteristic of highly competitive industries, the players win market share by effective planning and efficient operations. One aspect of effective planning is ensuring that the carsharing fleet of cars is suitable to the needs of the target customers. The goal of this paper is to use past data to analyse the car features that are affecting the demand of cars and propose a model to predict the future demand of cars using these features. To achieve this, we obtained the ride data from Bildeleringen, the leading car sharing operator in Bergen (Norway). We analysed all of the data tables and picked the variables that were essential to our study. After cleaning up the data, we created a new dataset that gave car level information on the car type, car features, the availability period, and the usage variable. We obtained two measures of usage from the data – time driven and kilometres driven. Based on the business model of Bildeleringen where more of the cost of usage is attributed to the driven time, we chose the time driven as the more appropriate usage measure. Also, we noticed that some cars were available on the platform for way longer than others, hence we went a step further to define the measure of usage as the kilometre driven as a ratio of the time available on the platform. Using charts, histograms, and box plots, we investigated the possible relation in the car features and the usage of these cars on first glance. We then proceeded to run a multiple linear regression on our data set. We then used 10 data prediction methods to model the car usage and tested the predictive performance of the models using cross validation. The models used belonged to the Linear regression, Ensembles, Decision tree, Bagging and Boosting. The results of the show that are the car level features that affect the demand are transmission type, wheel drive system, baby pillow availability, child seat installed, and roof box installed. Based on the Mean Squared Error comparison, we also found that the Decision tree is the best model to use for the prediction.nhhma

Ambulance Emergency Response Optimization in Developing Countries

The lack of emergency medical transportation is viewed as the main barrier to the access of emergency medical care in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this paper, we present a robust optimization approach to optimize both the location and routing of emergency response vehicles, accounting for uncertainty in travel times and spatial demand characteristic of LMICs. We traveled to Dhaka, Bangladesh, the sixth largest and third most densely populated city in the world, to conduct field research resulting in the collection of two unique datasets that inform our approach. This data is leveraged to develop machine learning methodologies to estimate demand for emergency medical services in a LMIC setting and to predict the travel time between any two locations in the road network for different times of day and days of the week. We combine our robust optimization and machine learning frameworks with real data to provide an in-depth investigation into three policy-related questions. First, we demonstrate that outpost locations optimized for weekday rush hour lead to good performance for all times of day and days of the week. Second, we find that significant improvements in emergency response times can be achieved by re-locating a small number of outposts and that the performance of the current system could be replicated using only 30% of the resources. Lastly, we show that a fleet of small motorcycle-based ambulances has the potential to significantly outperform traditional ambulance vans. In particular, they are able to capture three times more demand while reducing the median response time by 42% due to increased routing flexibility offered by nimble vehicles on a larger road network. Our results provide practical insights for emergency response optimization that can be leveraged by hospital-based and private ambulance providers in Dhaka and other urban centers in LMICs

The countryside in urbanized Flanders: towards a flexible definition for a dynamic policy

The countryside, the rural area, the open space, … many definitions are used for rural Flanders. Everyone makes its own interpretation of the countryside, considering it as a place for living, working or recreating. The countryside is more than just a geographical area: it is an aggregate of physical, social, economic and cultural functions, strongly interrelated with each other. According to international and European definitions of rural areas there would be almost no rural area in Flanders. These international definitions are all developed to be used for analysis and policy within their specific context. They are not really applicable to Flanders because of the historical specificity of its spatial structure. Flanders is characterized by a giant urbanization pressure on its countryside while internationally rural depopulation is a point of interest. To date, for every single rural policy initiative – like the implementation of the European Rural Development Policy – Flanders used a specifically adapted definition, based on existing data or previously made delineations. To overcome this oversupply of definitions and delineations, the Flemish government funded a research project to obtain a clear and flexible definition of the Flemish countryside and a dynamic method to support Flemish rural policy aims. First, an analysis of the currently used definitions of the countryside in Flanders was made. It is clear that, depending on the perspective or the policy context, another definition of the countryside comes into view. The comparative study showed that, according to the used criteria, the area percentage of Flanders that is rural, varies between 9 and 93 per cent. Second, dynamic sets of criteria were developed, facilitating a flexible definition of the countryside, according to the policy aims concerned. This research part was focused on 6 policy themes, like ‘construction, maintenance and management of local (transport) infrastructures’ and ‘provision of (minimum) services (education, culture, health care, …)’. For each theme a dynamic set of criteria or indicators was constructed. These indicators make it possible to show where a policy theme manifests itself and/or where policy interventions are possible or needed. In this way every set of criteria makes up a new definition of rural Flanders. This method is dynamic; new data or insights can easily be incorporated and new criteria sets can be developed if other policy aims come into view. The developed method can contribute to a more region-oriented and theme-specific rural policy and funding mechanism

ENHANCING MUNICIPAL ANALYTICS CAPABILITIES TO ENABLE SUSTAINABLE URBAN TRANSPORTATION

Intermodal mobility, the IT-enabled, seamless transition between different modes of transportation to reach one’s destination, is a promising approach towards reducing the environmental footprint of urban mobility. We introduce a prototype, a geospatial data analytics system, that allows decision-makers at the municipal level to better understand how different means of transportation interact and interfere with each other within their city. Through a demonstration case, we particularly focus on the relationship between public transportation and private sector carsharing services in the city of Berlin. We outline the methods employed by the prototype to investigate the spatial and temporal dimensions of carsharing usage and how they relate to public transport offers. Our results suggest that carsharing complements public transport in some ways – e.g. by linking parts of the city with an insufficient public transport connection but also low demand – while potentially cannibalizing customers from public transport in the city center due to the increased comfort. We conclude by discussing how stakeholders can transform these insights into actionable advice

Smart Sustainable Mobility: Analytics and Algorithms for Next-Generation Mobility Systems

To this date, mobility ecosystems around the world operate on an uncoordinated, inefficient and unsustainable basis. Yet, many technology-enabled solutions that have the potential to remedy these societal negatives are already at our disposal or just around the corner. Innovations in vehicle technology, IoT devices, mobile connectivity and AI-powered information systems are expected to bring about a mobility system that is connected, autonomous, shared and electric (CASE). In order to fully leverage the sustainability opportunities afforded by CASE, system-level coordination and management approaches are needed. This Thesis sets out an agenda for Information Systems research to shape the future of CASE mobility through data, analytics and algorithms (Chapter 1). Drawing on causal inference, (spatial) machine learning, mathematical programming and reinforcement learning, three concrete contributions toward this agenda are developed. Chapter 2 demonstrates the potential of pervasive and inexpensive sensor technology for policy analysis. Connected sensing devices have significantly reduced the cost and complexity of acquiring high-resolution, high-frequency data in the physical world. This affords researchers the opportunity to track temporal and spatial patterns of offline phenomena. Drawing on a case from the bikesharing sector, we demonstrate how geo-tagged IoT data streams can be used for tracing out highly localized causal effects of large-scale mobility policy interventions while offering actionable insights for policy makers and practitioners. Chapter 3 sets out a solution approach to a novel decision problem faced by operators of shared mobility fleets: allocating vehicle inventory optimally across a network when competition is present. The proposed three-stage model combines real-time data analytics, machine learning and mixed integer non-linear programming into an integrated framework. It provides operational decision support for fleet managers in contested shared mobility markets by generating optimal vehicle re-positioning schedules in real time. Chapter 4 proposes a method for leveraging data-driven digital twin (DT) frameworks for large multi-stage stochastic design problems. Such problem classes are notoriously difficult to solve with traditional stochastic optimization. Drawing on the case of Electric Vehicle Charging Hubs (EVCHs), we show how high-fidelity, data-driven DT simulation environments fused with reinforcement learning (DT-RL) can achieve (close-to) arbitrary scalability and high modeling flexibility. In benchmark experiments we demonstrate that DT-RL-derived designs result in superior cost and service-level performance under real-world operating conditions