An Approach to Select Cost-Effective Risk Countermeasures Exemplified in CORAS

Risk is unavoidable in business and risk management is needed amongst others to set up good security policies. Once the risks are evaluated, the next step is to decide how they should be treated. This involves managers making decisions on proper countermeasures to be implemented to mitigate the risks. The countermeasure expenditure, together with its ability to mitigate risks, is factors that affect the selection. While many approaches have been proposed to perform risk analysis, there has been less focus on delivering the prescriptive and specific information that managers require to select cost-effective countermeasures. This paper proposes a generic approach to integrate the cost assessment into risk analysis to aid such decision making. The approach makes use of a risk model which has been annotated with potential countermeasures, estimates for their cost and effect. A calculus is then employed to reason about this model in order to support decision in terms of decision diagrams. We exemplify the instantiation of the generic approach in the CORAS method for security risk analysis.Comment: 33 page

INTEGRATED RISK ASSESSMENT IN RAMP HANDLING OPERATIONS: RISK MAPPING FOR TURKISH AIRPORTS

Ramp handling acts a vital role in sustainable airport operations. The ramp related services provided to aircraft and their passengers at the airports are related to the landing, take-off, unloading and loading of the aircraft. Human resource is a key component in ramp handling operation and errors by employees cause significant accidents or incidents. The main purpose of the current study is to prioritize critical risk factors in ramp handling operations by using an integrated risk management approach and optimizing human performance while minimizing both failures and errors by employees. In this study, an integrated qualitative and quantitative risk assessment method is carried out by considering the factors that affect the possibility of ramp handling personnel errors. Initially, 113 risk factors are identified by using the academic literature, documents prepared by international organizations, and then by consulting expert opinions. Subsequently, a prioritization by professionals working on the ramp handling operations, based on the principles of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method resulted in the final selection of the 41 most important risks. Then, a risk assessment approach is applied by designing a matrix, based on three dimensions; probability, severity (impact) and relation ratio which ultimately resulted in risk index generation and a risk map model is developed. Finally eleven (11) risk factors are identified as they have higher probabilities to occur and possible higher negative consequences. Thanks to the integrated risk assessment applied in this study, it is aimed to ensure that all systems of the organization operate in a safe way and that an efficient safety culture is formed. Allocating a single resource to many risks, instead of facing the risks of the ramp personnel one by one, leads to more efficient use of resources and higher performance of ground handling companies

FACTORS RELATED TO FALLING RISK PREVENTION OF PATIENTS AT RSUD ENCIK MARIYAM DAIK LINGGA IN 2020

The patient's risk of falling is an increased susceptibility to falls that can cause physical harm. Prevention of falling patients is carried out by means of assessment, the use of a yellow bracelet for a high fall risk; as well as conducting regular monitoring and evaluation. External factors that influence the implementation of fall risk prevention are organizational and management factors, work environment, team factors, staff factors, task factors, patient factors, and communication factors. Monitoring results obtained by nurses have provided fall prevention education, there are still bedrails that are not raised and there are high risk patients. From these data it can be concluded that the nurse has carried out the fall risk assessment properly but the implementation of fall prevention has not been optimal and there is a risk of falling patients. The purpose of this study was to determine the factors related to the risk of falling patients by nurses at Encik Mariyam Daik Lingga Hospital in 2019. This study used a descriptive analytical method with a cross sectional approach, the sample selection was carried out by using total sampling technique, the number of samples used was 32 respondents. The results were analyzed by using the chi square test and showed a relationship between factors, namely knowledge, attitudes and motivation of nurses with preventive measures for the risk of falling patients by nurses at RSUDEncik Mariyam Daik Lingga in 2019. Researcher's suggestions are that nurses can further improve knowledge, attitudes and motivation for good performance. especially in providing nursing care in the form of prevention of the risk of falling patients

Facilitating organisational decision making: a change risk assessment model case study

Purpose: This paper aims to take the challenge to propose a novel modelling approach named Change Risk Assessment Model (CRAM), which will contribute significantly to the missing formality of business models especially in the change risk assessment area and decision-making. Organisational change risks are assessed with the aid of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in an attempt to define the internal dynamics of organisational change management within project management eliciting also risk cause-and-effect relationships. Design/methodology/approach: The study discusses interviews/survey/AHP. Findings: The study presents the following findings. Change risk factors assessment (identification and prioritisation) recommendations (see Case Study) integration of change management; project management; risk management top four risk factors, namely, leadership, communication, project management team and culture. Research limitations/implications: As projects can be different in a variety of factors (quality, scope), an exhaustive list of risk factors cannot be identified. There is a continuous risk identification process throughout the projects’ life cycle. For example, many risks can be classified initially as unknown and can be refined after the initiation phase of the project. AHP factors limitation (eight per level) possible bias (survey analysis). Practical implications: With the aid of modelling and especially CRAM, business change risks can be assessed numerically and prioritised. Several risk factors and related attributes were identified and categorised. This empowers project managers or other stakeholders to make proper decisions about whether to take on or abandon respective organisational or project changes. Social implications: One of the values of CRAM is that it can be regarded as a global change risk assessment method that can be applied regardless of project type, size or organisation. Moreover, it has the advantage that it can be used by any kind of project, as the method is designed to be tailored to specific needs, taking significant environmental change risk factors into account. AHP has numerous uses in operational research, in project management and in general in areas where decisions (evaluation and selection) have to be made. The analysis of the case study presented, indicated that it is vital to assess the degree (impact) that each risk attribute poses to address complex organisational decisions. Originality/value: CRAM aims to bridge the gap between theoretical and applied work in the integrated research field of change management, project management and risk management. Furthermore, the approach attempts to develop a novel systematic methodology (model) for assigning probabilities in attributes (criteria) pair-wise comparison and more specifically, modelling and assessing change management risks, adding a different perspective and technique to the research area

Using Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA) to Determine Safety Integrity Level (SIL) for Hazardous Installation

The purpose of this project is to determine the Safety Integrity Levels (SIL) for hazardous installation by using the risk assessment techniques. Various methods can be used in determining this SIL. The selected method is based on the certain criteria. The method will be used for the whole project as the based techniques to defined SIL. In this case, Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA) has been chosen as the risk-based approach to evaluate potential consequences and likelihood. Many factors could be considered in order to complete this project. The selection of SIL is very important since in many cases the Safety Instrumented System (SIS) is the last layer of protection for the prevention of hazardous events. The safety integrity of the safety functions to be implemented in the SIS is to be identified in terms of Safety Integrity levels (SILs). Each SIL is assigned with a specific range of Probability to Fail on Demand (PFD). In this project, current industry practices for the selection of SILs are evaluated to illustrate how each method provides an estimation risk of risk reduction that the SIS will provide for a given process. The level of effort, required expertise, and accuracy of the methods are also compared to assist reader in choosing the appropriate SIL selection methodology. LOPA method will be applied as some related data and tools should be collected in ensuring the successfulness of the project

Early detection of communication delays with the PEDS tools in at-risk South African infants

Background: Prevalence of communication delays or disorders is increasing, possibly because of various environmental risk factors. Selection and implementation of effective screening tools are important to detect at-risk infants as early as possible. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of the Parents' Evaluation of Developmental Status (PEDS), PEDS-Developmental Milestones and PEDS tools to detect communication delays in infants (6-12 months) in a South African primary healthcare context. Method: A comparative study design evaluated the accuracy of the PEDS tools to detect communication delays, using an internationally accepted diagnostic assessment tool, the Rossetti Infant-Toddler Language Scale (RITLS). A convenience sample of 201 infants was selected at primary healthcare clinics. Results: Expressive and receptive language sensitivity scores were low across all three screens (ranging between 14% and 44%). The PEDS tools had high sensitivity (71%) and specificity (73%) ratings for the receptive and expressive language and socio-emotional domain in combination. Conclusion: In the sample population, the PEDS tools did not accurately detect receptive and expressive language delays; however, communication delays in general were identified. Future research determining accuracy of the PEDS, PEDS-Developmental Milestones and PEDS tools for children aged 2-5 years in detecting communication delays should be prioritised

Identification and evaluation of criteria for selecting contractors using a risk management approach

ransferring all or some parts of the engineering activities or supply of goods to third persons or companies is one of the adopted methods that transfer a significant part of the likely risks to the concerned side. Outsourcing activities are followed by many benefits, such as reducing overhead and operational costs, increasing efficiency, reducing risk, and so on; however, if this is not done carefully, not only is no benefit gained, but also new risks are imposed on the organization. Considering that waste of time and cost diversions of projects stem from the selection of inappropriate contractors, risk assessment is important in outsourcing. Using a risk-oriented approach based on software toward outsourcing, the present study aims to identify and rate the factors affecting the selection of contractors and to finally provide a method to evaluate and select the proper way for the selection of contractors. This method is not just based on the lowest price, but it also includes several factors that influence the selection of contractors, which is achieved by applying the Expert Choice software. At first, the most important risk factors in the selection of contractors were identified according to the conducted research. Then, the factors that had the greatest risk potential for achieving the project goals were chosen from among them. The opinions of experts were obtained in the next phase to determine the importance of various factors in the process of contractor selection, which was achieved by the distribution of a questionnaire. Subsequently, the most important factors chosen by the experts were specified, and their relationship with the contractor’s risk management was found

Designing Human Health Risk Management Model for Dam Construction Projects

Identifying the risks of dam construction projects due to their high importance in terms of utilization, the amount of investment they invest in, the location of the region, the nature of the complexity of the project, and the presence of many uncertainties, including natural disasters and costs High builds are of special importance. Selection and implementation of the project with the least risk can lead to economic savings, optimal use of resources, increased productivity, flood control and supply of drinking water, agriculture and industry. Based on the results of this study, the "human factors" factor in the probability of occurrence and outcome in the category of severity of risk was the highest score among the indicators related to risk factors assessment of dam construction projects. In this research, first, identify the main risks of the project through a questionnaire and then identify the response strategies for the most critical risks, and finally, with the help of the decision model, prepare and, through paired comparisons, the best strategy for the most important human risk factors in the Polrood dam project is selected. In order to assess the risk in the dam, the risk parameters were identified and prioritized in different stages of the project, as well as 16 sub-subsets in four categories of risk factors: human, technical-environmental, environmental and psychological factors, and using the method DEMATEL-ANP were evaluated and ranked. "The lack of sufficient training to use devices and tools" was the most critical

Tailoring a Human Reliability Analysis to Your Industry Needs

Companies at risk of accidents caused by human error that result in catastrophic consequences include: airline industry mishaps, medical malpractice, medication mistakes, aerospace failures, major oil spills, transportation mishaps, power production failures and manufacturing facility incidents. Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) is used to analyze the inherent risk of human behavior or actions introducing errors into the operation of a system or process. These assessments can be used to identify where errors are most likely to arise and the potential risks involved if they do occur. Using the basic concepts of HRA, an evolving group of methodologies are used to meet various industry needs. Determining which methodology or combination of techniques will provide a quality human reliability assessment is a key element to developing effective strategies for understanding and dealing with risks caused by human errors. There are a number of concerns and difficulties in "tailoring" a Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) for different industries. Although a variety of HRA methodologies are available to analyze human error events, determining the most appropriate tools to provide the most useful results can depend on industry specific cultures and requirements. Methodology selection may be based on a variety of factors that include: 1) how people act and react in different industries, 2) expectations based on industry standards, 3) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 4) type and availability of data, 5) how the industry views risk & reliability, and 6) types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks. Other considerations for methodology selection should be based on what information is needed from the assessment. If the principal concern is determination of the primary risk factors contributing to the potential human error, a more detailed analysis method may be employed versus a requirement to provide a numerical value as part of a probabilistic risk assessment. Industries involved with humans operating large equipment or transport systems (ex. railroads or airlines) would have more need to address the man machine interface than medical workers administering medications. Human error occurs in every industry; in most cases the consequences are relatively benign and occasionally beneficial. In cases where the results can have disastrous consequences, the use of Human Reliability techniques to identify and classify the risk of human errors allows a company more opportunities to mitigate or eliminate these types of risks and prevent costly tragedies

Filipino women's health study : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Nutrition and Dietetics at Massey University, Albany, New Zealand

Background: Western acculturation has been shown to be detrimental to health outcomes. Recently, more Filipinos are migrating to New Zealand, which may increase lifestyle-related chronic diseases. Furthermore, Filipino populations already have a higher incidence of chronic disease and less favourable health outcomes than their Western counterparts. Understanding their risk will assist development of public health initiatives which can be utilised to protect the health of the growing Filipino New Zealand migrant population. Aim: The aim of this study was to investigate the risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease among recently immigrated Filipino women Method: 62 recently-immigrated Filipino women, aged 19-45, were recruited from Auckland, New Zealand. A health and demographic information questionnaire was completed. Anthropometric measurements (height, weight, and waist circumference) and blood pressure were measured. Both total and percent body fat were determined using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. Fasting glucose, insulin, and lipids were measured. Physical activity data was monitored by accelerometers and two-day food diaries were completed. Homeostasis Model Assessment 2 was used to quantify insulin resistance. The 30-year Framingham Risk Score was used to classify participants into low-, medium-, or high-risk of developing cardiovascular disease. Prevalence of metabolic syndrome according to the modified National Cholesterol Education Programme criteria was determined. Results: Body mass index, waist circumference, and percent body fat were positively correlated with higher insulin resistance. Smokers had higher insulin resistance than non-smokers. However, 90% of participants had a low long-term risk of developing cardiovascular disease and 10% of participants met the metabolic syndrome criteria. This study was cross-sectional and provided used self-selection sampling. Conclusion: Anthropometric measures and smoking were associated with higher insulin resistance in participants. Participants with metabolic syndrome (10%) were at a greater risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus. This study highlights the risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease development, and the need for further research, in this Filipino migrant population. These findings also create a platform for improving New Zealand health programmes by targeting appropriate risk factors to improve insulin sensitivity and reduce risk of developing diabetes, and will help to raise awareness in the Filipino community