The political economy of decarbonisation: exploring the dynamics of South Africa’s electricity sector

South Africa’s coal-dominated electricity sector, a key feature of the country’s minerals-energy complex, is in crisis and subject to change. This offers potential opportunities for decarbonisation. Despite positive examples of decarbonisation in South Africa’s electricity sector, such as a procurement programme for renewable energy, there are structural path dependencies linked to coal-fired generation and security of supply. Decarbonisation goes far beyond what is technologically or even economically feasible, to encompass a complexity of political, social and economic factors. Meanwhile, decision-making in electricity is highly politicised and lack of transparency and power struggles in the policy sphere pose key challenges. Such power struggles are reflected in national debates over which technologies should be prioritised and the institutional arrangements that should facilitate them

Simulating the deep decarbonisation of residential heating for limiting global warming to 1.5C

Whole-economy scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5C suggest that direct carbon emissions in the buildings sector should decrease to almost zero by 2050, but leave unanswered the question how this could be achieved by real-world policies. We take a modelling-based approach for simulating which policy measures could induce an almost-complete decarbonisation of residential heating, the by far largest source of direct emissions in residential buildings. Under which assumptions is it possible, and how long would it take? Policy effectiveness highly depends on behavioural decision- making by households, especially in a context of deep decarbonisation and rapid transformation. We therefore use the non-equilibrium bottom-up model FTT:Heat to simulate policies for a transition towards low-carbon heating in a context of inertia and bounded rationality, focusing on the uptake of heating technologies. Results indicate that the near-zero decarbonisation is achievable by 2050, but requires substantial policy efforts. Policy mixes are projected to be more effective and robust for driving the market of efficient low-carbon technologies, compared to the reliance on a carbon tax as the only policy instrument. In combination with subsidies for renewables, near-complete decarbonisation could be achieved with a residential carbon tax of 50-200Euro/tCO2. The policy-induced technology transition would increase average heating costs faced by households initially, but could also lead to cost reductions in most world regions in the medium term. Model projections illustrate the uncertainty that is attached to household behaviour for prematurely replacing heating systems

A systematic review of empirical methods for modelling sectoral carbon emissions in China

© 2019 Elsevier Ltd A number of empirical methods have been developed to study China's sectoral carbon emissions (CSCE). Measuring these emissions is important for climate change mitigation. While several articles have reviewed specific methods, few attempts conduct a systematic analysis of all the major research methods. In total 807 papers were published on CSCE research between 1997 and 2017. The primary source of literature for this analysis was taken from the Web of Science database. Based on a bibliometric analysis using knowledge mapping with the software CiteSpace, the review identified five common families of methods: 1) environmentally-extended input-output analysis (EE-IOA), 2) index decomposition analysis (IDA), 3) econometrics, 4) carbon emission control efficiency evaluation and 5) simulation. The research revealed the main trends in each family of methods and has visualized this research into ten research clusters. In addition, the paper provides a direct comparison of all methods. The research results can help scholars quickly identify and compare different methods for addressing specific research questions

The cost of phasing out coal: Identifying and overcoming socio-political barriers

IPCC climate mitigation scenarios project rapid coal phase-out as an integral part of climate change mitigation. Despite the diffusion of cost competitive low-carbon alternatives to coal power, some argue that current decline is not in line with climate mitigation targets, and that rapid coal phase-out depicted in climate scenarios is not socio-politically feasible. This dissertation conceptualizes rapid coal power phase-out as one of three interconnected policy problems, as it affects the survival of coal power companies and related jobs, and the development of regions which heavily rely on coal power generation. In addition to coal phase-out policies, governments implement just transition strategies to address these policy problems: domestically, these policies financially compensate coal companies, regions and workers, and on international level, recent Just Energy Transition Partnerships support emerging economies with large coal fleets. However, while some argue that such policies are essential to enable rapid coal phase-out, others question the effectiveness and fairness of financial compensation for coal incumbents. This dissertation contributes to the debates around feasibility and fairness of coal phase-out through two major avenues. First, it identifies that coal phase-out affects three interconnected systems: the technological system of coal power generation to be phased out, the industrial system comprised of coal companies that needs to adapt to coal phase-out, and regions heavily reliant on the coal industry that need to reorient. This dissertation develops a framework that allows researchers to diagnose the key socio-political mechanisms depending on the phase of decline each system is in and proposes policy sequencing of different strategies over time to decouple the decline of industry and regions from the decline of the technology. Second, inspired by the recent application of Daniel Kahnemann’s “inside” and “outside view” to climate science, this dissertation studies existing coal phase-out commitments and just transition strategies as reference cases to better understand the socio-political feasibility of coal phase-out in climate mitigation scenarios. It finds that while coal phase-out commitments have diffused to countries with larger shares of coal in their electricity mix, accelerated policy-driven coal phase-out commitments tend to be accompanied by just transition strategies. Implementing similar just transition strategies in the two countries with the largest coal fleets globally, China and India, in line with 1.5\ub0C -2\ub0C IPCC scenarios might require most, if not all, of the $100 billion annual climate finance pledged by Global North countries. This dissertation contributes to better understanding key socio-political mechanisms affecting coal phase-out and proposes a quantitative approach to measure what it takes to overcome them, thus enabling a more informed debate on the effectiveness and fairness of compensation schemes as well as an opportunity to incorporate socio-political feasibility into climate mitigation models. Future research on the cost and management of just transition strategies is required as these strategies are at very early stages of implementation, and more reference cases added as new strategies emerge. Additionally, similar strategies and financial compensation accompanying past decline episodes may shed further light on the cost of accelerated coal phase-out

Estimating China’s Urban Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions: A Bottom-up Modeling Perspective

China is experiencing unprecedented urbanization with the urban share of population expected to grow to nearly 80% by 2050. Chinese urban residents consume nearly 1.6 times as much commercial energy as rural residents, and account for an even larger share of energy and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions embodied in urban infrastructure and goods. As a result, cities can play an increasingly important role in helping China meet its future energy and CO2 intensity reduction targets. While some individual cities have conducted energy and greenhouse gas emission inventories, China lacks estimates of aggregate urban energy consumption and CO2 emissions that take into consideration detailed sectoral drivers, fuel mixes, and end-uses specific to urban areas. This paper describes the results of a bottom-up, energy end-use modeling methodology for estimating China’s urban energy demand and CO2 emissions for four key demand sectors. We present a detailed modeling framework that characterizes residential and commercial building end-uses in Chinese cities, differentiates between intra-city and inter-city transport attributable to urban residents, and evaluates the urban share of industrial production activity. Scenario analysis is also used to quantify the urban energy and CO2 emissions reduction potential within each sector. We find that the Chinese industrial sector alone accounts for 56% of urban primary energy demand and 62% of urban CO2 emissions in 2010 and holds the greatest mitigation potential – a characteristic unique to Chinese cities. Maximum deployment of commercially-available, cost-effective technologies across all four sectors can also help Chinese urban CO2 emissions peak earlier

Scientific Research about Climate Change Mitigation in Transport : A critical review

Peer reviewedPostprin

A Qualitative Based Causal-Loop Diagram for Understanding Policy Design Challenges for a Sustainable Transition Pathway:The Case of Tees Valley Region, UK

The energy transition is a complex problem that requires a comprehensive and structured approach to policymaking. Such an approach is needed to ensure that transition pathways and policies enable greener energy alternatives whilst ensuring prosperity for people living in the region and limiting environmental degradation to the local ecosystem. This paper applies a qualitative approach based on systematic literature research and review analysis to identify and analyse previous work within this interdisciplinary field in order to understand the complexity of energy transitions and identify key variables and sub-sectors that need to be addressed by policymaking. The paper then looks at the problem from a regional level and uses the Tees Valley region in North East England as a reference case for the energy system and potential proposed policies for the energy transition. A system dynamics methodology was employed to help visualise and emphasise the major complexity of the energy transition and the challenges that policymaking needs to tackle for the successfully enable implementation and application of the energy transition policies. The results of this study identified that in relation to the Tees Valley energy system, its development and transition towards decarbonisation, the major challenge for the policymakers is to ensure that proposed policies foster growth in job creation without leading to job losses within the local employment market

Cutting the Climate-Development Gordian Knot - Economic options in a politically constrained world

Combating climate change cannot but be a cooperative venture amongst nations. Together with the problem posed by the withdrawal of the US from the Kyoto Protocol, the key challenge for winning the battle is the involvement of developing countries in efforts to alter their GHGs emissions trends. This involvement is necessary technically but also politically to bring the largest emitter of the planet back on the battle field. In the first section we draw on history to outline the intellectual underpinning of North/South divide around climate affairs. In the second section we show the economic basis for a leverage effect between development and climate policies. The third section ventures to propose some guidance to develop a viable climate regime strong enough to support an ambitious effort to decarbonize economies and we show that the Kyoto framework, once re-interpreted and amended is not so far from this working drawing.climate policy; development