Modeling Events and Interactions through Temporal Processes -- A Survey

In real-world scenario, many phenomena produce a collection of events that occur in continuous time. Point Processes provide a natural mathematical framework for modeling these sequences of events. In this survey, we investigate probabilistic models for modeling event sequences through temporal processes. We revise the notion of event modeling and provide the mathematical foundations that characterize the literature on the topic. We define an ontology to categorize the existing approaches in terms of three families: simple, marked, and spatio-temporal point processes. For each family, we systematically review the existing approaches based based on deep learning. Finally, we analyze the scenarios where the proposed techniques can be used for addressing prediction and modeling aspects.Comment: Image replacement

Efficient Non-parametric Bayesian Hawkes Processes

In this paper, we develop an efficient nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the kernel function of Hawkes processes. The non-parametric Bayesian approach is important because it provides flexible Hawkes kernels and quantifies their uncertainty. Our method is based on the cluster representation of Hawkes processes. Utilizing the stationarity of the Hawkes process, we efficiently sample random branching structures and thus, we split the Hawkes process into clusters of Poisson processes. We derive two algorithms -- a block Gibbs sampler and a maximum a posteriori estimator based on expectation maximization -- and we show that our methods have a linear time complexity, both theoretically and empirically. On synthetic data, we show our methods to be able to infer flexible Hawkes triggering kernels. On two large-scale Twitter diffusion datasets, we show that our methods outperform the current state-of-the-art in goodness-of-fit and that the time complexity is linear in the size of the dataset. We also observe that on diffusions related to online videos, the learned kernels reflect the perceived longevity for different content types such as music or pets videos

Efficient non-parametric Bayesian hawkes processes

© 2019 International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence. All rights reserved. In this paper, we develop an efficient nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the kernel function of Hawkes processes. The non-parametric Bayesian approach is important because it provides flexible Hawkes kernels and quantifies their uncertainty. Our method is based on the cluster representation of Hawkes processes. Utilizing the stationarity of the Hawkes process, we efficiently sample random branching structures and thus, we split the Hawkes process into clusters of Poisson processes. We derive two algorithms - a block Gibbs sampler and a maximum a posteriori estimator based on expectation maximization - and we show that our methods have a linear time complexity, both theoretically and empirically. On synthetic data, we show our methods to be able to infer flexible Hawkes triggering kernels. On two large-scale Twitter diffusion datasets, we show that our methods outperform the current state-of-the-art in goodness-of-fit and that the time complexity is linear in the size of the dataset. We also observe that on diffusions related to online videos, the learned kernels reflect the perceived longevity for different content types such as music or pets videos

A tale of two roles: exploring topic-specific susceptibility and influence in cascade prediction

peer reviewedWe propose a new deep learning cascade prediction model CasSIM that can simultaneously achieve two most demanded objectives: popularity prediction and final adopter prediction. Compared to existing methods based on cascade representation, CasSIM simulates information diffusion processes by exploring users’ dual roles in information propagation with three basic factors: users’ susceptibilities, influences and message contents. With effective user profiling, we are the first to capture the topic-specific property of susceptibilities and influences. In addition, the use of graph neural networks allows CasSIM to capture the dynamics of susceptibilities and influences during information diffusion. We evaluate the effectiveness of CasSIM on three real-life datasets and the results show that CasSIM outperforms the state-of-the-art methods in popularity and final adopter prediction

Bayesian Nonparametrics to Model Content, User, and Latent Structure in Hawkes Processes

Communication in social networks tends to exhibit complex dynamics both in terms of the users involved and the contents exchanged. For example, email exchanges or activities on social media may exhibit reinforcing dynamics, where earlier events trigger follow-up activity through multiple structured latent factors. Such dynamics have been previously represented using models of reinforcement and reciprocation, a canonical example being the Hawkes process (HP). However, previous HP models do not fully capture the rich dynamics of real-world activity. For example, reciprocation may be impacted by the significance and receptivity of the content being communicated, and modeling the content accurately at the individual level may require identification and exploitation of the latent hierarchical structure present among users. Additionally, real-world activity may be driven by multiple latent triggering factors shared by past and future events, with the latent features themselves exhibiting temporal dependency structures. These important characteristics have been largely ignored in previous work. In this dissertation, we address these limitations via three novel Bayesian nonparametric Hawkes process models, where the synergy between Bayesian nonparametric models and Hawkes processes captures the structural and the temporal dynamics of communication in a unified framework. Empirical results demonstrate that our models outperform competing state-of-the-art methods, by more accurately capturing the rich dynamics of the interactions and influences among users and events, and by improving predictions about future event times, user clusters, and latent features in various types of communication activities

Optimizing resource allocation in computational sustainability: Models, algorithms and tools

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals laid out by the United Nations include numerous targets as well as indicators of progress towards sustainable development. Decision-makers tasked with meeting these targets must frequently propose upfront plans or policies made up of many discrete actions, such as choosing a subset of locations where management actions must be taken to maximize the utility of the actions. These types of resource allocation problems involve combinatorial choices and tradeoffs between multiple outcomes of interest, all in the context of complex, dynamic systems and environments. The computational requirements for solving these problems bring together elements of discrete optimization, large-scale spatiotemporal modeling and prediction, and stochastic models. This dissertation leverages network models as a flexible family of computational tools for building prediction and optimization models in three sustainability-related domain areas: 1) minimizing stochastic network cascades in the context of invasive species management; 2) maximizing deterministic demand-weighted pairwise reachability in the context of flood resilient road infrastructure planning; and 3) maximizing vertex-weighted and edge-weighted connectivity in wildlife reserve design. We use spatially explicit network models to capture the underlying system dynamics of interest in each setting, and contribute discrete optimization problem formulations for maximizing sustainability objectives with finite resources. While there is a long history of research on optimizing flows, cascades and connectivity in networks, these decision problems in the emerging field of computational sustainability involve novel objectives, new combinatorial structure, or new types of intervention actions. In particular, we formulate a new type of discrete intervention in stochastic network cascades modeled with multivariate Hawkes processes. In conjunction, we derive an exact optimization approach for the proposed intervention based on closed-form expressions of the objective functions, which is applicable in a broad swath of domains beyond invasive species, such as social networks and disease contagion. We also formulate a new variant of Steiner Forest network design, called the budget-constrained prize-collecting Steiner forest, and prove that this optimization problem possesses a specific combinatorial structure, restricted supermodularity, that allows us to design highly effective algorithms. In each of the domains, the optimization problem is defined over aspects that need to be predicted, hence we also demonstrate improved machine learning approaches for each.Ph.D

Chapter 3 Analytical Sociology amidst a Computational Social Science Revolution

"The Handbook of Computational Social Science is a comprehensive reference source for scholars across multiple disciplines. It outlines key debates in the field, showcasing novel statistical modeling and machine learning methods, and draws from specific case studies to demonstrate the opportunities and challenges in CSS approaches. The Handbook is divided into two volumes written by outstanding, internationally renowned scholars in the field. This first volume focuses on the scope of computational social science, ethics, and case studies. It covers a range of key issues, including open science, formal modeling, and the social and behavioral sciences. This volume explores major debates, introduces digital trace data, reviews the changing survey landscape, and presents novel examples of computational social science research on sensing social interaction, social robots, bots, sentiment, manipulation, and extremism in social media. The volume not only makes major contributions to the consolidation of this growing research field, but also encourages growth into new directions. With its broad coverage of perspectives (theoretical, methodological, computational), international scope, and interdisciplinary approach, this important resource is integral reading for advanced undergraduates, postgraduates and researchers engaging with computational methods across the social sciences, as well as those within the scientific and engineering sectors.