Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too differently, and accepting not to know

Uncertainty of late has become an increasingly important and controversial topic in water resource management, and natural resources management in general. Diverse managing goals, changing environmental conditions, conflicting interests, and lack of predictability are some of the characteristics that decision makers have to face. This has resulted in the application and development of strategies such as adaptive management, which proposes flexibility and capability to adapt to unknown conditions as a way of dealing with uncertainties. However, this shift in ideas about managing has not always been accompanied by a general shift in the way uncertainties are understood and handled. To improve this situation, we believe it is necessary to recontextualize uncertainty in a broader way¿relative to its role, meaning, and relationship with participants in decision making¿because it is from this understanding that problems and solutions emerge. Under this view, solutions do not exclusively consist of eliminating or reducing uncertainty, but of reframing the problems as such so that they convey a different meaning. To this end, we propose a relational approach to uncertainty analysis. Here, we elaborate on this new conceptualization of uncertainty, and indicate some implications of this view for strategies for dealing with uncertainty in water management. We present an example as an illustration of these concepts. Key words: adaptive management; ambiguity; frames; framing; knowledge relationship; multiple knowledge frames; natural resource management; negotiation; participation; social learning; uncertainty; water managemen

Uncertainty and risk: politics and analysis

In environmental and sustainable development policy issues, and in infrastructural megaprojects and issues of innovative medical technologies as well, public authorities face emergent complexity, high value diversity, difficult-to-structure problems, high decision stakes, high uncertainty, and thus risk. In practice, it is believed, this often leads to crises, controversies, deadlocks, and policy fiascoes. Decision-makers are said to face a crisis in coping with uncertainty. Both the cognitive structure of uncertainty and the political structure of risk decisions have been studied. So far, these scientific literatures exist side by side, with few apparent efforts at theoretically conceptualizing and empirically testing the links between the two. Therefore, this exploratory and conceptual paper takes up the challenge: How should we conceptualize the cognitive structure of uncertainty? How should we conceptualize the political structure of risk? How can we conceptualize the link(s) between the two? Is there any empirical support for a conceptualization that bridges the analytical and political aspects of risk? What are the implications for guidelines for risk analysis and assessment

Knowledge and perceptions in participatory policy processes: lessons from the delta-region in the Netherlands

Water resources management issues tend to affect a variety of uses and users. Therefore, they often exhibit complex and unstructured problems. The complex, unstructured nature of these problems originates from uncertain knowledge and from the existence of divergent perceptions among various actors. Consequently, dealing with these problems is not just a knowledge problem; it is a problem of ambiguity too. This paper focuses on a complex, unstructured water resources management issue, the sustainable development—for ecology, economy and society—of the Delta-region of the Netherlands. In several areas in this region the ecological quality decreased due to hydraulic constructions for storm water safety, the Delta Works. To improve the ecological quality, the Dutch government regards the re-establishment of estuarine dynamics in the area as the most important solution. However, re-establishment of estuarine dynamics will affect other uses and other users. Among the affected users are farmers in the surrounding areas, who use freshwater from a lake for agricultural purposes. This problem has been addressed in a participatory decision-making process, which is used as a case study in this paper. We investigate how the dynamics in actors’ perceptions and the knowledge base contribute to the development of agreed upon and valid knowledge about the problem–solution combination, using our conceptual framework for problem structuring. We found that different knowledge sources—expert and practical knowledge—should be integrated to create a context-specific knowledge base, which is scientifically valid and socially robust. Furthermore, we conclude that for the convergence of actors’ perceptions, it is essential that actors learn about the content of the process (cognitive learning) and about the network in which they are involved (strategic learning). Our findings form a plea for practitioners in water resources management to adopt a problem structuring approach in order to deal explicitly with uncertainty and ambiguity

Towards a pragmatic approach for dealing with uncertainties in water management practice

Management of water resources is afflicted with uncertainties. Nowadays it is facing more and new uncertainties since pace and dimension of changes (e.g. climatic, demographic) are accelerating and are likely to increase even more in the future. Hence it is crucial to find pragmatic ways to deal with these uncertainties in water management. So far, decision-making under uncertainty in water management is based on either intuition, heuristics and experience of water managers or on expert assessments all of which are only of limited use for water managers in practice. We argue for an analytical yet pragmatic approach to enable practitioners to deal with uncertainties in a more explicit and systematic way and allow for better informed decisions. Our approach is based on the concept of framing, referring to the different ways in which people make sense of the world and of the uncertainties. We applied and tested recently developed parameters that aim to shed light on the framing of uncertainty in two sub-basins of the Rhine. We present and discuss the results of a series of stakeholder interactions in the two basins aimed at developing strategies for improving dealing with uncertainties. The strategies are synthesized in a cross-checking list based on the uncertainty framing parameters as a hands-on tool for systematically identifying improvement options when dealing with uncertainty in water management practice. We conclude with suggestions for testing the developed check-list as a tool for decision aid in water management practice. Key words: water management, future uncertainties, framing of uncertainties, hands-on decision aid, tools for practice, robust strategies, social learnin

From Data Topology to a Modular Classifier

This article describes an approach to designing a distributed and modular neural classifier. This approach introduces a new hierarchical clustering that enables one to determine reliable regions in the representation space by exploiting supervised information. A multilayer perceptron is then associated with each of these detected clusters and charged with recognizing elements of the associated cluster while rejecting all others. The obtained global classifier is comprised of a set of cooperating neural networks and completed by a K-nearest neighbor classifier charged with treating elements rejected by all the neural networks. Experimental results for the handwritten digit recognition problem and comparison with neural and statistical nonmodular classifiers are given

Young people not in education, employment or training

"This paper highlights policies and provision that exist for young people not in education, employment or training in Wales. Strategies can cut across many different policy areas and are developed at UK, Welsh and local level. The picture of provision is complex. The paper looks at some of the challenges that exist for policy makers and agencies working in this policy field, and examines stakeholder views on what types of support work best for young people not in education, employment or training or at risk of becoming so. It also highlights some of the particular challenges facing these young people" -- front cover

Pragmatist Ethics and Climate Change [preprint]

This chapter explores some features of pragmatic pluralism as an ethical perspective on climate change. It is inspired in part by Andrew Light’s work on climate diplomacy as U.S. Assistant Secretary of Energy for International Affairs, and by Bryan Norton’s environmental pragmatism, while drawing more explicitly than Light or Norton from classical pragmatist sources such as John Dewey. The primary aim of the chapter is to characterize, differentiate, and advance a general pragmatist approach to climate ethics. The main line of argument is that we are suffering culturally from a sort of “moral jetlag” due in part to “moral fundamentalist” habits, and that a critical focus on pragmatic pluralism—in moral theory generally and climate ethics particularly—would be salutary for our recovery if philosophers are to speak more effectively to “wicked problems” in a way that aids public deliberation and social learning. Moral fundamentalist habits, and the monistic one-way assumption that unintentionally—but not blamelessly—exercises and unduly reinforces them, are obstacles to fostering habits of moral and political inquiry better suited to dealing with predicaments rapidly transforming our warming planet

Wicked problems in public policy

Some of the most difficult policy problems of the modern era have been described as complex, intractable, open-ended and 'wicked'. What are the key features of such problems? And are they really very different in nature from more routine problems? Are we developing better ways to address these wicked problems? This paper sketches some key aspects of wicked problems, and illustrates the discussion with two contemporary Australian examples - recent attempts to address the causes and possible solutions to Indigenous disadvantage; and policy responses to climate change

What We Don\u27t Know Can Help Us: Eliciting Out-of-Discipline Knowledge for Work with Intractable Conflicts

In this article, the authors present the results of a study in which a diverse variety of experts in fields outside the traditional conflict domain were interviewed about their ideas regarding intractable conflicts. The purpose of this study was to gather frame-breaking insights and practical approaches that could shed new light on complex, persistent conflict that has been particularly resistant to resolution. The authors argue that outsiders to the field are more likely to provide fresh perspective and radical approaches to the conflict field’s most intransigent problems because they are not constrained by the field’s pre-existing normative frames. This article examines some of their findings—from ideas on how globalization has exacerbated intractable conflicts, to ways that Biblical metaphors can be used to promote reconciliation, to an analysis of how philosophical concepts such as morality and impartiality can be used to produce fair outcomes, to ideas on the creation of an independent, international regional facilitation corps. In addition to a summary of content findings, methodological recommendations for future similar studies are offered