Multiobjective genetic programming for financial portfolio management in dynamic environments

Multiobjective (MO) optimisation is a useful technique for evolving portfolio optimisation solutions that span a range from high-return/high-risk to low-return/low-risk. The resulting Pareto front would approximate the risk/reward Efficient Frontier [Mar52], and simplifies the choice of investment model for a given client’s attitude to risk. However, the financial market is continuously changing and it is essential to ensure that MO solutions are capturing true relationships between financial factors and not merely over fitting the training data. Research on evolutionary algorithms in dynamic environments has been directed towards adapting the algorithm to improve its suitability for retraining whenever a change is detected. Little research focused on how to assess and quantify the success of multiobjective solutions in unseen environments. The multiobjective nature of the problem adds a unique feature to be satisfied to judge robustness of solutions. That is, in addition to examining whether solutions remain optimal in the new environment, we need to ensure that the solutions’ relative positions previously identified on the Pareto front are not altered. This thesis investigates the performance of Multiobjective Genetic Programming (MOGP) in the dynamic real world problem of portfolio optimisation. The thesis provides new definitions and statistical metrics based on phenotypic cluster analysis to quantify robustness of both the solutions and the Pareto front. Focusing on the critical period between an environment change and when retraining occurs, four techniques to improve the robustness of solutions are examined. Namely, the use of a validation data set; diversity preservation; a novel variation on mating restriction; and a combination of both diversity enhancement and mating restriction. In addition, preliminary investigation of using the robustness metrics to quantify the severity of change for optimum tracking in a dynamic portfolio optimisation problem is carried out. Results show that the techniques used offer statistically significant improvement on the solutions’ robustness, although not on all the robustness criteria simultaneously. Combining the mating restriction with diversity enhancement provided the best robustness results while also greatly enhancing the quality of solutions

A multi-tier adaptive grid algorithm for the evolutionary multi-objective optimisation of complex problems

The multi-tier Covariance Matrix Adaptation Pareto Archived Evolution Strategy (m-CMA-PAES) is an evolutionary multi-objective optimisation (EMO) algorithm for real-valued optimisation problems. It combines a non-elitist adaptive grid based selection scheme with the efficient strategy parameter adaptation of the elitist Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES). In the original CMA-PAES, a solution is selected as a parent for the next population using an elitist adaptive grid archiving (AGA) scheme derived from the Pareto Archived Evolution Strategy (PAES). In contrast, a multi-tiered AGA scheme to populate the archive using an adaptive grid for each level of non-dominated solutions in the considered candidate population is proposed. The new selection scheme improves the performance of the CMA-PAES as shown using benchmark functions from the ZDT, CEC09, and DTLZ test suite in a comparison against the (μ+λ) μ λ Multi-Objective Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (MO-CMA-ES). In comparison with MO-CMA-ES, the experimental results show that the proposed algorithm offers up to a 69 % performance increase according to the Inverse Generational Distance (IGD) metric

Evolutionary many-objective optimisation: pushing the boundaries

This thesis was submitted for the award of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University LondonMany-objective optimisation poses great challenges to evolutionary algorithms. To start with, the ineffectiveness of the Pareto dominance relation, which is the most important criterion in multi-objective optimisation, results in the underperformance of traditional Pareto-based algorithms. Also, the aggravation of the conflict between proximity and diversity, along with increasing time or space requirement as well as parameter sensitivity, has become key barriers to the design of effective many-objective optimisation algorithms. Furthermore, the infeasibility of solutions' direct observation can lead to serious difficulties in algorithms' performance investigation and comparison. In this thesis, we address these challenges, aiming to make evolutionary algorithms as effective in many-objective optimisation as in two- or three-objective optimisation. First, we significantly enhance Pareto-based algorithms to make them suitable for many-objective optimisation by placing individuals with poor proximity into crowded regions so that these individuals can have a better chance to be eliminated. Second, we propose a grid-based evolutionary algorithm which explores the potential of the grid to deal with many-objective optimisation problems. Third, we present a bi-goal evolution framework that converts many objectives of a given problem into two objectives regarding proximity and diversity, thus creating an optimisation problem in which the objectives are the goals of the search process itself. Fourth, we propose a comprehensive performance indicator to compare evolutionary algorithms in optimisation problems with various Pareto front shapes and any objective dimensionality. Finally, we construct a test problem to aid the visual investigation of evolutionary search, with its Pareto optimal solutions in a two-dimensional decision space having similar distribution to their images in a higher-dimensional objective space. The work reported in this thesis is the outcome of innovative attempts at addressing some of the most challenging problems in evolutionary many-objective optimisation. This research has not only made some of the existing approaches, such as Pareto-based or grid-based algorithms that were traditionally regarded as unsuitable, now effective for many-objective optimisation, but also pushed other important boundaries with novel ideas including bi-goal evolution, a comprehensive performance indicator and a test problem for visual investigation. All the proposed algorithms have been systematically evaluated against existing state of the arts, and some of these algorithms have already been taken up by researchers and practitioners in the field.Department of Computer Science, Brunel University Londo

Advances in Evolutionary Algorithms

With the recent trends towards massive data sets and significant computational power, combined with evolutionary algorithmic advances evolutionary computation is becoming much more relevant to practice. Aim of the book is to present recent improvements, innovative ideas and concepts in a part of a huge EA field

A study of evolutionary multiobjective algorithms and their application to knapsack and nurse scheduling problems

Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) based on the concept of Pareto dominance seem the most suitable technique for multiobjective optimisation. In multiobjective optimisation, several criteria (usually conflicting) need to be taken into consideration simultaneously to assess a quality of a solution. Instead of finding a single solution, a set of trade-off or compromise solutions that represents a good approximation to the Pareto optimal set is often required. This thesis presents an investigation on evolutionary algorithms within the framework of multiobjective optimisation. This addresses a number of key issues in evolutionary multiobjective optimisation. Also, a new evolutionary multiobjective (EMO) algorithm is proposed. Firstly, this new EMO algorithm is applied to solve the multiple 0/1 knapsack problem (a wellknown benchmark multiobjective combinatorial optimisation problem) producing competitive results when compared to other state-of-the-art MOEAs. Secondly, this thesis also investigates the application of general EMO algorithms to solve real-world nurse scheduling problems. One of the challenges in solving real-world nurse scheduling problems is that these problems are highly constrained and specific-problem heuristics are normally required to handle these constraints. These heuristics have considerable influence on the search which could override the effect that general EMO algorithms could have in the solution process when applied to this type of problems. This thesis outlines a proposal for a general approach to model the nurse scheduling problems without the requirement of problem-specific heuristics so that general EMO algorithms could be applied. This would also help to assess the problems and the performance of general EMO algorithms more fairly

Evolutionary multiobjective optimization : review, algorithms, and applications

Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Industrial e SistemasMany mathematical problems arising from diverse elds of human activity can be formulated as optimization problems. The majority of real-world optimization problems involve several and con icting objectives. Such problems are called multiobjective optimization problems (MOPs). The presence of multiple con icting objectives that have to be simultaneously optimized gives rise to a set of trade-o solutions, known as the Pareto optimal set. Since this set of solutions is crucial for e ective decision-making, which generally aims to improve the human condition, the availability of e cient optimization methods becomes indispensable. Recently, evolutionary algorithms (EAs) have become popular and successful in approximating the Pareto set. The population-based nature is the main feature that makes them especially attractive for dealing with MOPs. Due to the presence of two search spaces, operators able to e ciently perform the search in both the decision and objective spaces are required. Despite the wide variety of existing methods, a lot of open research issues in the design of multiobjective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) remains. This thesis investigates the use of evolutionary algorithms for solving multiobjective optimization problems. Innovative algorithms are developed studying new techniques for performing the search either in the decision or the objective space. Concerning the search in the decision space, the focus is on the combinations of traditional and evolutionary optimization methods. An issue related to the search in the objective space is studied in the context of many-objective optimization. Application of evolutionary algorithms is addressed solving two di erent real-world problems, which are modeled using multiobjective approaches. The problems arise from the mathematical modelling of the dengue disease transmission and a wastewater treatment plant design. The obtained results clearly show that multiobjective modelling is an e ective approach. The success in solving these challenging optimization problems highlights the practical relevance and robustness of the developed algorithms.Muitos problemas matemáticos que surgem nas diversas áreas da atividade humana podem ser formulados como problemas de otimização. A maioria dos problemas do mundo real envolve vários objetivos conflituosos. Tais problemas chamam-se problemas de otimização multiobjetivo. A presença de vários objetivos conflituosos, que têm de ser otimizados em simultâneo, dá origem a um conjunto de soluções de compromisso, conhecido como conjunto de soluções ótimas de Pareto. Uma vez que este conjunto de soluções é fundamental para uma tomada de decisão eficaz, cujo objetivo em geral é melhorar a condição humana, o desenvolvimento de métodos de otimização eficientes torna-se indispensável. Recentemente, os algoritmos evolucionários tornaram-se populares e bem-sucedidos na aproximação do conjunto de Pareto. A natureza populacional é a principal característica que os torna especialmente atraentes para lidar com problemas de otimização multiobjetivo. Devido à presença de dois espaços de procura, operadores capazes de realizar a procura de forma eficiente, tanto no espaço de decisão como no espaço dos objetivos, são necessários. Apesar da grande variedade de métodos existentes, várias questões de investigação permanecem em aberto na área do desenvolvimento de algoritmos evolucionários multiobjetivo. Esta tese investiga o uso de algoritmos evolucionários para a resolução de problemas de otimização multiobjetivo. São desenvolvidos algoritmos inovadores que estudam novas técnicas de procura, quer no espaço de decisão, quer no espaço dos objetivos. No que diz respeito à procura no espaço de decisão, o foco está na combinação de métodos de otimização tradicionais com algoritmos evolucionários. A questão relacionada com a procura no espaço dos objetivos é desenvolvida no contexto da otimização com muitos objetivos. A aplicação dos algoritmos evolucionários é abordada resolvendo dois problemas reais, que são modelados utilizando abordagens multiobjectivo. Os problemas resultam da modelação matemática da transmissão da doença do dengue e do desenho ótimo de estações de tratamento de águas residuais. O sucesso na resolução destes problemas de otimização constitui um desafio e destaca a relevância prática e robustez dos algoritmos desenvolvidos

Optimizing an in Situ Bioremediation Technology to Manage Perchlorate-Contaminated Groundwater

Combining horizontal flow treatment wells (HFTWs) with in situ biodegradation is an innovative approach with the potential to remediate perchlorate-contaminated groundwater. A technology model was recently developed that combines the groundwater flow induced by HFTWs with in situ biodegration processes that result from using the HFTWs to mix electron donor into perchlorate-contaminated groundwater. A field demonstration of this approach is planned to begin this year. In order to apply the technology in the field, project managers need to understand how contaminated site conditions and technology design parameters impact technology performance. One way to gain this understanding is to use the technology model to select engineering design parameters that optimize performance under given site conditions. In particular, a project manager desires to design a system that: 1) maximizes perchlorate destruction; 2) minimizes treatment expense; and 3) attains regulatory limits on down gradient contaminant concentrations. Unfortunately, for a relatively complex technology with a number of engineering design parameters to determine, as well as multiple objectives, system optimization is not straight forward. In this study, a multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) is used to determine design parameter values (flow rate, well spacing, concentration of injection electron donor, and injection schedule) that optimize the first two objectives noted; to maximize perchlorate destruction while minimizing cost. Four optimization runs are performed, using two different remediation time spans (300 and 600 days) for two different sets of site conditions. Results from all four optimization runs indicate that the relationship between perchlorate mass removal and operating cost is positively correlated and nonlinear

Seeking multiple solutions:an updated survey on niching methods and their applications

Multi-Modal Optimization (MMO) aiming to locate multiple optimal (or near-optimal) solutions in a single simulation run has practical relevance to problem solving across many fields. Population-based meta-heuristics have been shown particularly effective in solving MMO problems, if equipped with specificallydesigned diversity-preserving mechanisms, commonly known as niching methods. This paper provides an updated survey on niching methods. The paper first revisits the fundamental concepts about niching and its most representative schemes, then reviews the most recent development of niching methods, including novel and hybrid methods, performance measures, and benchmarks for their assessment. Furthermore, the paper surveys previous attempts at leveraging the capabilities of niching to facilitate various optimization tasks (e.g., multi-objective and dynamic optimization) and machine learning tasks (e.g., clustering, feature selection, and learning ensembles). A list of successful applications of niching methods to real-world problems is presented to demonstrate the capabilities of niching methods in providing solutions that are difficult for other optimization methods to offer. The significant practical value of niching methods is clearly exemplified through these applications. Finally, the paper poses challenges and research questions on niching that are yet to be appropriately addressed. Providing answers to these questions is crucial before we can bring more fruitful benefits of niching to real-world problem solving

Efficient Learning Machines

Computer scienc