Thomas S. Schelling: game theory and indirect communication

In their recent work Thomas S. Schelling (2007, 2010), reiterating original arguments about game theory and its applications to social sciences. In particular, game theory helps to explore situations in which agents make decisions interdependent (strategic communication). Schelling's originality is to extend economic theory to social sciences. When a player can anticipate the options and influence the decisions of others. The strategy, indirect communication plays a crucial role. To illustrate, we investigate how to perform the payoff matrix in cases of bribery and threatSocial Science, Schelling, game theory, strategic communications, bribes, threats

Beyond happiness: Building a science of discrete positive emotions.

While trait positive emotionality and state positive-valence affect have long been the subject of intense study, the importance of differentiating among several "discrete" positive emotions has only recently begun to receive serious attention. In this article, we synthesize existing literature on positive emotion differentiation, proposing that the positive emotions are best described as branches of a "family tree" emerging from a common ancestor mediating adaptive management of fitness-critical resources (e.g., food). Examples are presented of research indicating the importance of differentiating several positive emotion constructs. We then offer a new theoretical framework, built upon a foundation of phylogenetic, neuroscience, and behavioral evidence, that accounts for core features as well as mechanisms for differentiation. We propose several directions for future research suggested by this framework and develop implications for the application of positive emotion research to translational issues in clinical psychology and the science of behavior change. (PsycINFO Database Recor

Futures Studies in the Interactive Society

This book consists of papers which were prepared within the framework of the research project (No. T 048539) entitled Futures Studies in the Interactive Society (project leader: Éva Hideg) and funded by the Hungarian Scientific Research Fund (OTKA) between 2005 and 2009. Some discuss the theoretical and methodological questions of futures studies and foresight; others present new approaches to or procedures of certain questions which are very important and topical from the perspective of forecast and foresight practice. Each study was conducted in pursuit of improvement in futures fields

Understanding evolutionary processes during past Quaternary climatic cycles: Can it be applied to the future?

Climate change affected ecological community make-up during the Quaternary which was probably both the cause of, and was caused by, evolutionary processes such as species evolution, adaptation and extinction of species and populations

Demography and the Cultural Evolution of Pictorial Styles

Image-making is a nearly-universal human behaviour. Cultures around the world have made images to convey information about living kinds, objects and ideas for at least 75,000 years. However, from a stylistic point of view, the visual strategies and conventions to represent things in pictures can vary greatly over time and space; in particular, pictorial styles can differ in figurativeness, varying from inter-subjectively recognisable representations of things to stylised and abstract forms. Are there any patterns to this variability, and what might its ecological causes be? In recent Cultural Evolution research, factors such as demography and the structure of interaction between groups of individuals have been shown to affect the evolution of languages and technology. Capitalising on these studies, I investigate the style evolution in relation with the socio-demographic variable of population contact, and in particular the influence of inter-group contact on the figurativeness of pictorial representations. For this purpose, I firstly conducted an experimental study, simulating isolated and contact social groups with laboratory micro-societies performing a drawing task; secondly, I quantitatively analysed a real-world dataset of Aboriginal Australian rock art from contact and isolated communities; then I qualitatively explored the evolution of a contemporary pictorial communication item: emoji. Results show that pictorial representations from isolated groups tend to become abstract and opaque to outsiders, whereas in contact groups they retain figurativeness and external understandability. This supports the idea that intergroup contact is an important factor in the cultural evolution of pictorial styles, because the need to communicate with outsiders and be accessible to the widest possible audience encourages figurativeness. I discuss the implications of these findings for the archaeology and anthropology of art, and the parallels with language evolution. Finally, addressing the need for research outreach in Cultural Evolution, I designed the blueprint of an exhibition aimed at disseminating my research findings while offering lay audiences an engaging and transformative experience

Rationales for Indirect Speech: The Theory of the Strategic Speaker

Speakers often do not state requests directly but employ innuendos such as Would you like to see my etchings? Though such indirectness seems puzzlingly inefficient, it can be explained by a theory of the strategic speaker, who seeks plausible deniability when he or she is uncertain of whether the hearer is cooperative or antagonistic. A paradigm case is bribing a policeman who may be corrupt or honest: A veiled bribe may be accepted by the former and ignored by the latter. Everyday social interactions can have a similar payoff structure (with emotional rather than legal penalties) whenever a request is implicitly forbidden by the relational model holding between speaker and hearer (e.g., bribing an honest maitre d', where the reciprocity of the bribe clashes with his authority). Even when a hearer's willingness is known, indirect speech offers higher-order plausible deniability by preempting certainty, gossip, and common knowledge of the request. In supporting experiments, participants judged the intentions and reactions of characters in scenarios that involved fraught requests varying in politeness and directness.Psycholog

What Makes Complex Systems Complex?

This paper explores some of the factors that make complex systems complex. We first examine the history of complex systems. It was Aristotle’s insight that how elements are joined together helps determine the properties of the resulting whole. We find (a) that scientific reductionism does not provide a sufficient explanation; (b) that to understand complex systems, one must identify and trace energy flows; and (c) that disproportionate causality, including global tipping points, are all around us. Disproportionate causality results from the wide availability of energy stores. We discuss three categories of emergent phenomena—static, dynamic, and adaptive—and recommend retiring the term emergent, except perhaps as a synonym for creative. Finally, we find that virtually all communication is stigmergic

Modelling Aggressive or Risky Driving: The Effect of Cinematic Portrayals of Risky Driving

The purpose of the current research was to investigate the influence of motion pictures, depicting aggressive or risky driving, on subsequent driving behaviour. Both experimental and descriptive research approaches were used in an attempt to demonstrate the robustness of this relationship. Study 1 employed an experimental design, in which participants drove through a test course on a driving simulator following exposure to either neutral, arousing, or aggressive and risky driving movie content. Various person, situation, and internal factors were assessed, along with various measures of aggressive or risky driving (e.g., speed, acceleration, passing frequency). Study 2 was an event study, which linked automated enforcement speeding data, from the City of Edmonton, to the release of two aggressive or risky driving movies (i.e., Fast and Furious 6 and Furious 7) to investigate changes in the number of speeding infractions and speed differential (i.e., amount the driver exceeded the posted speed limit). Multiple years of speeding infraction data provided a built in replication, allowing for comparisons across different years. The results from Study 1 provided evidence for the contribution of trait aggression, sensation seeking, driving vengeance, a history of violation (i.e., particularly speeding), and a provoking racing scenario to the modelling of aggressive or risky driving. Study 2 revealed an increase in the number of speeding infractions and mean speed differential for the opening weekend and first week post-movie release for Furious 7. The findings from these studies demonstrate the interactivity of person, internal, and situation factors in the modelling of aggressive or risky driving and suggest that movies, which depict this content, can influence real-world speeding behaviour. Public policy implications are addressed, with a strong suggestion for increased enforcement following the release of such movies, particularly during the first week. An emphasis is placed on production companies to provide warnings and address unsafe driving as a public health and safety concern. Also, viewers of such material are reminded of their responsibility, as drivers, to engage in thoughtful, non-risky action when presented with an aggressive driving opportunity