Stochastic urban pluvial flood hazard maps based upon a spatial-temporal rainfall generator

It is a common practice to assign the return period of a given storm event to the urban pluvial flood event that such storm generates. However, this approach may be inappropriate as rainfall events with the same return period can produce different urban pluvial flooding events, i.e., with different associated flood extent, water levels and return periods. This depends on the characteristics of the rainfall events, such as spatial variability, and on other characteristics of the sewer system and the catchment. To address this, the paper presents an innovative contribution to produce stochastic urban pluvial flood hazard maps. A stochastic rainfall generator for urban-scale applications was employed to generate an ensemble of spatially—and temporally—variable design storms with similar return period. These were used as input to the urban drainage model of a pilot urban catchment (~9 km2) located in London, UK. Stochastic flood hazard maps were generated through a frequency analysis of the flooding generated by the various storm events. The stochastic flood hazard maps obtained show that rainfall spatial-temporal variability is an important factor in the estimation of flood likelihood in urban areas. Moreover, as compared to the flood hazard maps obtained by using a single spatially-uniform storm event, the stochastic maps generated in this study provide a more comprehensive assessment of flood hazard which enables better informed flood risk management decisions

Effects of Learned Episodic Event Structure on Prospective Duration Judgments

The field of psychology of time has typically distinguished between prospective timing and retrospective duration estimation: in prospective timing, participants attend to and encode time, whereas in retrospective estimation, estimates are based on the memory of what happened. Prior research on prospective timing has primarily focused on attentional mechanisms to explain timing behavior, but it remains unclear the extent to which memory processes may also play a role. The present studies investigate this issue, and specifically, the role of newly learned encoded event structure. Two structural properties of dynamic event sequences were examined, which are known to modulate retrospective duration estimates: the perceived number of segments and the similarity between them. We found that when duration and episodic event content are both attended to and encoded, more segments and less similarity between them led to longer attributed durations, despite clock duration remaining constant. In contrast, when only duration is attended to, only the number of segments influenced estimated durations. These findings indicate that incidentally or intentionally encoded episodic event structure modulates prospective duration judgments. Based on these and previous findings, implications for the role of memory mechanisms on prospective paradigms are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Recor

Stock price reaction to profit warnings: The role of time-varying betas

This study investigates the role of time-varying betas, event-induced variance and conditional heteroskedasticity in the estimation of abnormal returns around important news announcements. Our analysis is based on the stock price reaction to profit warnings issued by a sample of firms listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The standard event study methodology indicates the presence of price reversal patterns following both positive and negative warnings. However, incorporating time-varying betas, event-induced variance and conditional heteroskedasticity in the modelling process results in post-negative-warning price patterns that are consistent with the predictions of the efficient market hypothesis. These adjustments also cause the statistical significance of some post-positive-warning cumulative abnormal returns to disappear and their magnitude to drop to an extent that minor transaction costs would eliminate the profitability of the contrarian strategy

Uncertainty in estimates of the number of extraterrestrial civilizations

An estimation of the number N of communicative civilizations is made by means of Drake's formula which involves the combination of several quantities, each of which is to some extent uncertain. It is shown that the uncertainty in any quantity may be represented by a probability distribution function, even if that quantity is itself a probability. The uncertainty of current estimates of N is derived principally from uncertainty in estimates of the lifetime of advanced civilizations. It is argued that this is due primarily to uncertainty concerning the existence of a Galactic Federation which is in turn contingent upon uncertainty about whether the limitations of present-day physics are absolute or (in the event that there exists a yet undiscovered hyperphysics) transient. It is further argued that it is advantageous to consider explicitly these underlying assumptions in order to compare the probable numbers of civilizations operating radio beacons, permitting radio leakage, dispatching probes for radio surveillance for dispatching vehicles for manned surveillance

Multiscenario flood hazard assessment using probabilistic runoff hydrograph estimation and 2D hydrodynamic modelling

In this paper, we aim to define a procedure of flood hazard assessment applicable to large river basins in which flood events can be induced/sustained by the full basin area or by fractions of the total area as functions of the extent of the triggering precipitation event. The proposed procedure is based on a combined approach accounting for (1) the reconstruction of intensity–duration–frequency curves expressing the magnitude in terms of intensity for multiple return periods; (2) the application of the soil conservation service method for runoff estimation from a selected rainfall scenario considering some characteristics of the basin (i.e. soil type, land use/treatment, surface condition, and antecedent moisture conditions); (3) 2D hydrodynamic modelling conducted by the HEC-RAS model using runoff hydrographs as hydrological input data; (4) the reconstruction of flood hazard maps by overlaying multiple inundation maps depicting flood extent for different return periods. To account for the variability in the extent of the triggering precipitation event and the resulting input hydrograph, multiple contributing areas are considered. The procedure is tested at the archaeological site of Sybaris in southern Italy, which is periodically involved in flood events of variable magnitude. The obtained results highlight that the variable extent of the floodable area is strongly conditioned by the extent of the contributing area and return period, as expected. The archaeological site is always involved in the simulated flooding process, except for the smallest contributing area for which only a 300-year event involves this part of the site. Our findings may be useful for developing and supporting flood risk management plans in the area. The developed procedure might be easily exported and tested in other fluvial contexts in which evaluations of multiple flood hazard scenarios, due to the basin geometry and extent, are needed

Novel algorithms for improved detection and analysis of fluorescent signal fluctuations

Fluorescent dyes and genetically encoded fuorescence indicators (GEFI) are common tools for visualizing concentration changes of specifc ions and messenger molecules during intra- as well as intercellular communication. Using advanced imaging technologies, fuorescence indicators are a prerequisite for the analysis of physiological molecular signaling. Automated detection and analysis of fuorescence signals require to overcome several challenges, including correct estimation of fuorescence fuctuations at basal concentrations of messenger molecules, detection, and extraction of events themselves as well as proper segmentation of neighboring events. Moreover, event detection algorithms need to be sensitive enough to accurately capture localized and low amplitude events exhibiting a limited spatial extent. Here, we present two algorithms (PBasE and CoRoDe) for accurate baseline estimation and automated detection and segmentation of fuorescence fuctuations

Surface Hydrologic Modeling and Analyzing Watershed Hydrologic Response to Landcover Change

Urban flooding is the most frequently occurring disaster in rapidly urbanizing cities. Rapid urbanization in general, is characterized by an increase in the total impervious surface area, which means less soil cover for the stormwater to infiltrate and a greater volume of runoff from the area in case of a storm event. This increased volume of surface runoff, if not drained, results in urban flooding. Urban flooding can cause serious economic and environmental damages by disrupting transportation and spreading pollution. It is therefore, essential to understand the cause, behavior and effects of urban flooding so as to minimize the risks and costs associated with urban floods. Hydrologic models are useful tools for understanding hydrologic processes and for designing urban stormwater drainage infrastructure to reduce the risks of floodings. This research aims to study urban hydrology by estimating surface runoff from an urban area using an event based distributed parameter hydrologic model. In this research, an event-based distributed parameter hydrologic model is developed, which uses Green-Ampt infiltration model to estimate the surface runoff from a given catchment. The developed model is tested on two small catchments. The ‘rainfall-runoff modeling’ part of the developed model is calibrated for the rainfall events of May 22, 2017 and, May 24, 2017 over the Moores Run study area, and, validated for the rainfall event of April 17, 2017. The ‘flood-modeling’ part of the developed model is validated for the rainfall event of Sep 11, 2012 over the Parking-lots area at UNLV. The results of the rainfall-runoff simulation and flood depth and extent estimation for different land-cover change scenarios over the Parking-lots catchment is also provided. The testing on Moores Run study area resulted in calibration at 30-m resolution DEM and a hydraulic conductivity value of 0.19 cm/hr. for soil group D. The error in the model’s estimation of the catchment area is 7.75%. The model over-predicted the runoff volume from the catchment for the first rainfall event while under-predicted the runoff volume from the catchment for the second rainfall event. The average error in estimation of the runoff volume is 1.8%. The model also over-predicts the ‘time-to-peak’ and under-predicts ‘peak runoff’ in both cases. The average of RMSE between the predicted hydrograph and actual hydrograph for the two rainfall events is 0.0071 m3/s in calibration, and, 0.011 m3/s in validation. The testing on UNLV Parking-lots area resulted in calibration at 10-m resolution DEM. For the rainfall event of Sep 11, 2012, the model predicts over predicts the peak flood depth and under-predicts the maximum extent of flooding. The error in flood depth estimation is found be 12.9%. From watershed hydrologic response to landcover change analysis, it is observed that Manning’s roughness coefficient doesn’t affect the total volume of runoff, however, the time to peak is significantly delayed for landcover with higher values of Manning’s roughness co-efficient. This research provides an insight into surface hydrologic modeling. It also provides an overview of calibration against DEM resolution and hydraulic conductivity values. Finally, it provides an understanding of watershed hydrologic response to different landcovers with various Manning’s roughness values

Determination of prey capture rates in the stony coral Galaxea fascicularis: a critical reconsideration of the clearance rate concept

In order to determine optimal feeding regimes for captive corals, prey capture by the scleractinian coral Galaxea fascicularis was determined by measuring clearance of prey items from the surrounding water. Colonies of G. fascicularis (sized between 200 and 400 polyps) were incubated in 1300 ml incubation chambers. Nauplii of the brine shrimp Artemia sp. were used as the prey item. A series of incubation experiments was conducted to determine the maximal capture per feeding event and per day. To determine maximal capture per feeding event, total uptake of nauplii after one hour was determined for different prey item availabilities ranging from 50 to 4000 nauplii per polyp. To determine maximal capture per day, the corals were subjected to four repetitive feeding events at three different prey item densities (50, 100 and 150 nauplii per polyp). Alongside these quantitative experiments, it was tested to what extent the feeding response of corals is triggered by chemical cues. One hour after food addition, extract of Artemia nauplii was added to the incubation chambers to test its effect on subsequent prey capture rates. In all experiments, prey capture was expressed as the number of nauplii consumed per coral polyp. Total capture of Artemia nauplii by G. fascicularis after a single feeding event increased linearly up till a prey item availability of 2000 nauplii per polyp. Maximal capture per feeding event was estimated at 1200 nauplii per polyp, which is higher than rates reported in previous studies. It became apparent that at high densities of Artemia nauplii, the clearance rate method does not discriminate between active capture and passive sedimentation. Repetitive feeding with 50 nauplii per polyp resulted in a constant total prey capture per feeding event. At a supply of 100 nauplii per polyp, total capture decreased after the first feeding event, and remained constant during the subsequent feeding events at a level comparable to the lower food availability. However, at a supply of 150 nauplii per polyp, total capture per event was higher throughout the entire four-hour incubation period, which obfuscates an accurate estimation of the maximal daily food uptake. In all incubations, a decrease in capture efficiency was observed within the course of the feeding event. In all repetitive feeding experiments, capture efficiency increased immediately upon addition of a new batch of food. This increase in efficiency was not caused by a priming effect of extract of Artemia. The inconsistencies in the data show that estimates of prey capture based on clearance rates should be interpreted with caution, because this method does not take into account potential dynamics of prey capture and release

DEM based Flood Extent Delineation in Dhaka City, Bangladesh

Dhaka city, the capital of Bangladesh and home for more than 10 million people, has been affected by seasonal flooding almost in every year, however, the situation aggravates depending on rainfall and surrounding river waters. The aim of this paper is to delineate the flood extent in Dhaka city using digital elevation model (DEM), an integral part of geographic information system. Catastrophic floods of the 1988 and 1998 events are taken into consideration. Hydro-meteorological assessment of these events revealed that the 1988 flood was severe due to the lack of flood protection in the city together with transboundary flow of the major rivers while the 1998 flood was become deluge due to incessant monsoonal downpour along with early peaked of the river water levels. The 1998 event has done colossal damage in the city compare to the 1988 event. Flood extent estimation showed that DEM data is very precious to model inundation in the city, however, in order to be spatially explicit flood model, high resolution DEM is necessary. Finally, flood management issues are reviewed and found that combination of structural and nonstructural measures are necessary to help reducing flood induced losses and damage in the city