Environmental capacity in the East Midlands: an evidence base fit for purpose

This report relates to the initial study into the measurement of Environmental Capacity within the East Midlands Region considering what indicators/measures of Environmental Capacity can be put into place in the near future within the region and what are the aspirations regarding longer term indicators / measures of Environmental Capacity in the region. The study involved in depth interviews with relevant employees from local authorities and other key agencies within the region covering the current data collected/used in monitoring and the possible link to the monitoring of Environmental Capacity as well as the interviewees' awareness of and attitudes towards Environmental Capacity as a monitoring tool

Spatial Processes and Ecotoxicological Risk Assessment Modeling

This dissertation considers the importance of spatial processes in the application of models for environmental risk assessment. The appropriate incorporation of space as an ecological variable to construct spatially delineated risk estimates can improve estimates of the risk outcomes and improve resulting risk management decisions. Three environmental problems are considered, corresponding to three different case studies measuring an ecotoxicological effect at progressively broader spatial scales. The first application addresses how the presence of spatial auto­correlation can affect the exposure of ecological receptors in the environment. The presence of significant spatial correlation can impact methods for adequately determining summary concentrations, hypothesis testing, and for identifying zones in need of remediation at contaminated sites. The second case study addresses how treating habitat as a spatial variable can impact estimates of population doses. Calculated dose estimates are dependent on the distributions of spatial habitat and the toxin. Risk estimates can differ considerably when compared to the more common use of summary statistics to represent an exposure concentration for risk purposes. Measuring the spatial correlation of habitat quality and contamination distribution is recommended as a means for evaluating whether incorporating habitat and spatial movement models are useful for an environmental assessment. Finally, the risk of insects developing resistance to genetically modified crops is evaluated within a spatial milieu of varying bat predation rates and changing genetically modified crop types and percentages. This model is developed at a broad spatial scale and considers large­scale insect migrations and varying spatial pressure from foraging bats. Incorporation of these larger scale processes significantly impacts temporal estimates of the evolution of insect resistance to toxins in the environment

Pathways to Coastal Resiliency: the Adaptive Gradients Framework

Current and future climate-related coastal impacts such as catastrophic and repetitive flooding, hurricane intensity, and sea level rise necessitate a new approach to developing and managing coastal infrastructure. Traditional “hard” or “grey” engineering solutions are proving both expensive and inflexible in the face of a rapidly changing coastal environment. Hybrid solutions that incorporate natural, nature-based, structural, and non-structural features may better achieve a broad set of goals such as ecological enhancement, long-term adaptation, and social benefits, but broad consideration and uptake of these approaches has been slow. One barrier to the widespread implementation of hybrid solutions is the lack of a relatively quick but holistic evaluation framework that places these broader environmental and societal goals on equal footing with the more traditional goal of exposure reduction. To respond to this need, the Adaptive Gradients Framework was developed and pilot-tested as a qualitative, flexible, and collaborative process guide for organizations to understand, evaluate, and potentially select more diverse kinds of infrastructural responses. These responses would ideally include natural, nature-based, and regulatory/cultural approaches, as well as hybrid designs combining multiple approaches. It enables rapid expert review of project designs based on eight metrics called “gradients”, which include exposure reduction, cost efficiency, institutional capacity, ecological enhancement, adaptation over time, greenhouse gas reduction, participatory process, and social benefits. The framework was conceptualized and developed in three phases: relevant factors and barriers were collected from practitioners and experts by survey; these factors were ranked by importance and used to develop the initial framework; several case studies were iteratively evaluated using this technique; and the framework was finalized for implementation. The article presents the framework and a pilot test of its application, along with resources that would enable wider application of the framework by practitioners and theorists

Life and death in wolverines

Developing trustworthy conservation planning for endangered species requires a deep understanding of the variations of their populations in both space and time. I used individual-based long-term location and demographic data on wolverines (Gulo gulo) in Northern Sweden, and data on reproductions from the national monitoring systems of Norway and Sweden, to analyze how wolverine demography in Scandinavia is affected by variation in habitat and management policies. Wolverines showed agerelated patterns of reproduction and reproductive costs, which were influenced by seasonal resources. The top predator Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) increase scavenging opportunities on reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) carrion, and wolverines and lynx selected for the same habitats when sharing prey base and sources of adult mortality. Illegal killing was a main source of adult mortality in brown bears (Ursus arctos), lynx and wolverines in northern Sweden, and the risk of being illegally killed was in general higher in national parks and on reindeer calving grounds, and lower in forest and steep terrain. At population level, the reproductive range of wolverines was set by latitude and elevation; presence of reindeer and lynx, rugged terrain and higher primary production had a positive effect; whereas human dominated habitats negatively influenced the frequency of reproductions. Different management policies influenced the frequency of wolverine reproductions; in Sweden this was 2 times higher than in Norway. Finally, I show that in Sweden, adult female wolverines were illegally killed at lower rates than males. Thus, the Swedish carnivore conservation payment system, which pays for wolverine reproductions, protects the demographic segment that is most important for population growth. Carnivores impose negative impact on rural economies and herding cultures in Scandinavia, and there will be need for continued monitoring combined with economic incentives to ensure carnivore-human coexistence. The approach of linking life histories to habitat has the potential for in-depth studies of mechanisms shaping spatial and temporal variation in populations, and should be implemented in future adaptive management for species persistence

Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority Science Strategy and Information Needs 2014-2019

The Science Strategy and Information Needs 2014–2019 sets out the future scientific information needs of the agency. It aims to ensure that science activities are relevant, targeted to address critical management issues and their outcomes are easily accessible. The strategy is based on the outcomes of the Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report 2014 and the Great Barrier Reef Region Strategic Assessment, plus the critical thinking applied in developing the synthesis documents that informed those reports

Integrated Population Models and Habitat Metrics for Wildlife Management

La gestion des espèces est entièrement dépendante de notre capacité à évaluer les décisions de gestion et de les corriger si nécessaire. Dans un monde idéal les gestionnaires auraient une connaissance extensive et mécanistique des systèmes qu’ils gèrent et ces connaissances seraient mises à jour de façon continue. Dans la réalité, les gestionnaires doivent gérer les populations et développer des objectifs de populations en dépit de leur connaissance imparfaites et des manques de données chronique. L’émergence de nouveaux outils statistiques ouvrent toutefois la porte à de nouvelles possibilités ce qui permet une gestion plus proactive de la faune. Dans le Chapitre 1, j’ai évalué l’efficacité de modèles intégrés de populations (MIP) à combler des lacunes dans notre connaissance en présence de données limitées et de modèles de populations mal spécifiés. J’ai démontré que les MIP peuvent maintenir une précision élevée et présenter un biais faible, et ce dans une large gamme de conditions. Dans le chapitre 2, j’ai développé une approche de MIP qui inclut des effets aléatoires entre les différentes populations. J’ai constaté que les effets aléatoires permettent améliorer considérablement les performances des algorithmes d'optimisation, produisent des estimations raisonnables et permettent même d'estimer les paramètres pour les populations avec des données très limitées. J’ai par la suite appliqué le modèle à 51 unités de gestion du Wapiti en Idaho, USA afin de démonter son application. La viabilité des populations à long terme est généralement réalisé à grâce à des manipulations d’habitat qui sont identifiées grâces à des méthodes de sélection des ressources. Les méthodes basées sur la sélection des ressources assume cependant que l’utilisation disproportionnée d’une partie du paysage reflète la volonté d’un individu de remplir une partie de son cycle biologique. Toutefois, dans le troisième chapitre j’ai démontré que des simples mesures d’habitat sont à mieux de décrire la variation dans la survie des Wapitis. Selon, mes résultats, la variation individuelle dans la sélection des habitats était le modèle qui expliquait le mieux la corrélation entre les habitats et le succès reproducteur et que les coefficients de sélection des ressources n’étaient pas corrélés à la survie.Successful management of harvested species critically depends on an ability to predict the consequences of corrective actions. Ideally, managers would have comprehensive, quantitative and continuous knowledge of a managed system upon which to base decisions. In reality, wildlife managers rarely have comprehensive system knowledge. Despite imperfect knowledge and data deficiencies, a desire exists to manipulate populations and achieve objectives. To this end, manipulation of harvest regimes and the habitat upon which species rely have become staples of wildlife management. Contemporary statistical tools have potential to enhance both the estimation of population size and vital rates while making possible more proactive management. In chapter 1 we evaluate the efficacy of integrated population models (IPM) to fill knowledge voids under conditions of limited data and model misspecification. We show that IPMs maintain high accuracy and low bias over a wide range of realistic conditions. In recognition of the fact that many monitoring programs have focal data collection areas we then fit a novel form of the IPM that employs random effects to effectively share information through space and time. We find that random effects dramatically improve performance of optimization algorithms, produce reasonable estimates and make it possible to estimate parameters for populations with very limited data. We applied these random effect models to 51 elk management units in Idaho, USA to demonstrate the abilities of the models and information gains. Many of the estimates are the first of their kind. Short-term forecasting is the focus of population models, but managers assess viability on longer time horizons through habitat. Modern approaches to understanding large ungulate habitat requirements largely depend on resource selection. An implicit assumption of the resource selection approach is that disproportionate use of the landscape directly reflects an individual’s desire to meet life history goals. However, we show that simple metrics of habitat encountered better describe variations in elk survival. Comparing population level variation through time to individual variation we found that individual variation in habitat used was the most supported model relating habitat to a fitness component. Further, resource selection coefficients did not correlate with survival

Disturbance as Restoration in the Intermountain Sagebrush Steppe: Effects on Non Target Bird Species

Changes in shrubsteppe passerine bird habitat associations in response to disturbance were investigated at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Spatial measures incorporated the effects of area at different ecological scales (nest site, territory, and landscape) to include ecologically meaningful extents. Temporal measures included seasonal and annual effects, and were designed to detect lagged responses should they occur. Local-to-landscape scale effects of mechanical restoration treatments on local extirpation and abundances of nine species indicated most were insensitive to changes in habitat quality, while abundance models showed only broad declines. Changing the availability of nesting habitat on both the attractiveness and quality of an area at multiple extents confirmed the need for long-term study effects due to lagged responses in expressed preference and changes to nesting habitat quality. Time since treatment affected nest success in two of the four species, yet the changes in habitat quality did not forecast changes in habitat preference as expected. Non-adaptive mismatches seemingly occurred as habitat preferences indicated treatments may create benign-appearing \u27sink\u27 habitat for species that remained in the area. The umbrella species concept is misapplied at this scale: each species\u27 response was consistent, but responses varied in scale, timing, and direction among species. Patterns of nest density and nest site descriptions demonstrated population-level movement in response to treatments, suggesting half the focal species moved nest sites to remaining habitat areas. Larger scale responsive movements were observed in the remaining species, both out of and into the nest plot. Descriptions of nesting habitat characteristics for the focal species tested if the selected nesting habitat was consistent between pre- and post-treatment, and determined which habitat characteristics, including distance to disturbance, were related to nest success. Descriptions of nesting habitat characteristics support previous work in terms of structural characteristics. Habitat selection was consistent even when the available habitat was not, implying these species choose sites and are not merely settling randomly. However, selected nesting habitat was not strongly tied to nest success at local scales and nest success was negatively related to landscape qualities that treatments were designed to enhance

Ontogeny influences sensitivity to climate change stressors in an endangered fish.

Coastal ecosystems are among the most human-impacted habitats globally, and their management is often critically linked to recovery of declining native species. In the San Francisco Estuary, the Delta Smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) is an endemic, endangered fish strongly tied to Californian conservation planning. The complex life history of Delta Smelt combined with dynamic seasonal and spatial abiotic conditions result in dissimilar environments experienced among ontogenetic stages, which may yield stage-specific susceptibility to abiotic stressors. Climate change is forecasted to increase San Francisco Estuary water temperature and salinity; therefore, understanding the influences of ontogeny and phenotypic plasticity on tolerance to these critical environmental parameters is particularly important for Delta Smelt and other San Francisco Estuary fishes. We assessed thermal and salinity limits in several ontogenetic stages and acclimation states of Delta Smelt, and paired these data with environmental data to evaluate sensitivity to climate-change stressors. Thermal tolerance decreased among successive stages, with larval fish exhibiting the highest tolerance and post-spawning adults having the lowest. Delta Smelt had limited capacity to increase tolerance through thermal acclimation, and comparisons with field temperature data revealed that juvenile tolerance limits are the closest to current environmental conditions, which may make this stage especially susceptible to future climate warming. Maximal water temperatures observed in situ exceeded tolerance limits of juveniles and adults. Although these temperature events are currently rare, if they increase in frequency as predicted, it could result in habitat loss at these locations despite other favourable conditions for Delta Smelt. In contrast, Delta Smelt tolerated salinities spanning the range of expected environmental conditions for each ontogenetic stage, but salinity did impact survival in juvenile and adult stages in exposures over acute time scales. Our results underscore the importance of considering ontogeny and phenotypic plasticity in assessing the impacts of climate change, particularly for species adapted to spatially and temporally heterogeneous environments