The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution?

Global mean surface temperatures (GMST) exhibited a smaller rate of warming during 1998-2013, compared to the warming in the latter half of the 20th Century. Although, not a "true" hiatus in the strict definition of the word, this has been termed the "global warming hiatus" by IPCC (2013). There have been other periods that have also been defined as the "hiatus" depending on the analysis. There are a number of uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the "hiatus." This report reviews these issues and also posits insights from a collective set of diverse information that helps us understand what we do and do not know. One salient insight is that the GMST phenomenon is a surface characteristic that does not represent a slowdown in warming of the climate system but rather is an energy redistribution within the oceans. Improved understanding of the ocean distribution and redistribution of heat will help better monitor Earth's energy budget and its consequences. A review of recent scientific publications on the "hiatus" shows the difficulty and complexities in pinpointing the oceanic sink of the "missing heat" from the atmosphere and the upper layer of the oceans, which defines the "hiatus." Advances in "hiatus" research and outlooks (recommendations) are given in this report

Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios

The Mediterranean climate is expected to become warmer and drier during the twenty-first century. Mediterranean Sea response to climate change could be modulated by the choice of the socio-economic scenario as well as the choice of the boundary conditions mainly the Atlantic hydrography, the river runoff and the atmospheric fluxes. To assess and quantify the sensitivity of the Mediterranean Sea to the twenty-first century climate change, a set of numerical experiments was carried out with the regional ocean model NEMOMED8 set up for the Mediterranean Sea. The model is forced by air–sea fluxes derived from the regional climate model ARPEGE-Climate at a 50-km horizontal resolution. Historical simulations representing the climate of the period 1961–2000 were run to obtain a reference state. From this baseline, various sensitivity experiments were performed for the period 2001–2099, following different socio-economic scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. For the A2 scenario, the main three boundary forcings (river runoff, near-Atlantic water hydrography and air–sea fluxes) were changed one by one to better identify the role of each forcing in the way the ocean responds to climate change. In two additional simulations (A1B, B1), the scenario is changed, allowing to quantify the socio-economic uncertainty. Our 6-member scenario simulations display a warming and saltening of the Mediterranean. For the 2070–2099 period compared to 1961–1990, the sea surface temperature anomalies range from +1.73 to +2.97 °C and the SSS anomalies spread from +0.48 to +0.89. In most of the cases, we found that the future Mediterranean thermohaline circulation (MTHC) tends to reach a situation similar to the eastern Mediterranean Transient. However, this response is varying depending on the chosen boundary conditions and socio-economic scenarios. Our numerical experiments suggest that the choice of the near-Atlantic surface water evolution, which is very uncertain in General Circulation Models, has the largest impact on the evolution of the Mediterranean water masses, followed by the choice of the socio-economic scenario. The choice of river runoff and atmospheric forcing both have a smaller impact. The state of the MTHC during the historical period is found to have a large influence on the transfer of surface anomalies toward depth. Besides, subsurface currents are substantially modified in the Ionian Sea and the Balearic region. Finally, the response of thermosteric sea level ranges from +34 to +49 cm (2070–2099 vs. 1961–1990), mainly depending on the Atlantic forcing

Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures.

Dominant climatic factors controlling the lifetime peak intensity of typhoons are determined from six decades of Pacific typhoon data. We find that upper ocean temperatures in the low-latitude northwestern Pacific (LLNWP) and sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific control the seasonal average lifetime peak intensity by setting the rate and duration of typhoon intensification, respectively. An anomalously strong LLNWP upper ocean warming has favored increased intensification rates and led to unprecedentedly high average typhoon intensity during the recent global warming hiatus period, despite a reduction in intensification duration tied to the central equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Continued LLNWP upper ocean warming as predicted under a moderate [that is, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5] climate change scenario is expected to further increase the average typhoon intensity by an additional 14% by 2100

Upper ocean climate of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Holocene Insolation Maximum – a model study

ine thousand years ago (9 ka BP), the Northern Hemisphere experienced enhanced seasonality caused by an orbital configuration close to the minimum of the precession index. To assess the impact of this "Holocene Insolation Maximum" (HIM) on the Mediterranean Sea, we use a regional ocean general circulation model forced by atmospheric input derived from global simulations. A stronger seasonal cycle is simulated by the model, which shows a relatively homogeneous winter cooling and a summer warming with well-defined spatial patterns, in particular, a subsurface warming in the Cretan and western Levantine areas. The comparison between the SST simulated for the HIM and a reconstruction from planktonic foraminifera transfer functions shows a poor agreement, especially for summer, when the vertical temperature gradient is strong. As a novel approach, we propose a reinterpretation of the reconstruction, to consider the conditions throughout the upper water column rather than at a single depth. We claim that such a depth-integrated approach is more adequate for surface temperature comparison purposes in a situation where the upper ocean structure in the past was different from the present-day. In this case, the depth-integrated interpretation of the proxy data strongly improves the agreement between modelled and reconstructed temperature signal with the subsurface summer warming being recorded by both model and proxies, with a small shift to the south in the model results. The mechanisms responsible for the peculiar subsurface pattern are found to be a combination of enhanced downwelling and wind mixing due to strengthened Etesian winds, and enhanced thermal forcing due to the stronger summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Together, these processes induce a stronger heat transfer from the surface to the subsurface during late summer in the western Levantine; this leads to an enhanced heat piracy in this region, a process never identified before, but potentially characteristic of time slices with enhanced insolation

Sensitivity of Climate Change Projections to Uncertainties in the Estimates of Observed Changes in Deep-Ocean Heat Content

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).The MIT 2D climate model is used to make probabilistic projections for changes in global mean surface temperature and for thermosteric sea level rise under a variety of forcing scenarios. The uncertainties in climate sensitivity and rate of heat uptake by the deep ocean are quantified by using the probability distributions derived from observed 20th century temperature changes. The impact on climate change projections of using the smallest and largest estimates of 20th century deep ocean warming is explored. The impact is large in the case of global mean thermosteric sea level rise. In the MIT reference ("business as usual") scenario the median rise by 2100 is 27 and 43 cm in the respective cases. The impact on increases in global mean surface air temperature is more modest, 4.9 C and 3.9 C in the two respective cases, because of the correlation between climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake required by 20th century surface and upper air temperature changes. The results are also compared with the projections made by the IPCC AR4's multi-model ensemble for several of the SRES scenarios. The multi-model projections are more consistent with the MIT projections based on the largest estimate of ocean warming. However the range for the rate of heat uptake by the ocean suggested by the lowest estimate of ocean warming is more consistent with the range suggested by the 20th century changes in surface and upper air temperatures, combined with expert prior for climate sensitivity.This work was supported in part by the Office of Science (BER), U.S. Dept. of Energy Grant No. DE-FG02-93ER61677, NSF, and by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change