An Investigation of Buyers’ Forecast Sharing and Ordering Behavior in a Two-Stage Supply Chain

Profitably balancing demand and supply is a continuous challenge for companies under changing market conditions, and the potential benefit of collaboration between supply chain partners cannot be overlooked by any firm who strives to succeed. One of the key elements to successful collaboration is sharing of forecast information between supply chain partners. However, when supply shortage is expected, buyers may inflate order quantities and/or order forecasts to secure sufficient supply. An important question that arises is how the supplier should allocate inventory to customers when shortage exists. Literature shows that certain allocation policies can reduce buyers’ order inflation behavior. However, this has not yet been empirically shown for order forecast inflation behavior, nor incorporating the behavioral aspects of decision makers. In this dissertation, through behavioral experiments using a supply chain simulation game, we investigate the impact of different capacity allocation mechanisms and information disclosures of a supplier on buyers’ forecast sharing and ordering behavior. We first investigate the buyers’ order forecast sharing behavior in a single-suppliertwo- buyer supply chain. Our behavioral study shows that forecast-accuracy based allocation, where the supplier allocates more capacity to the buyer with better forecast accuracy, can significantly improve order forecast accuracy relative to uniform allocation, where the supplier equally allocates capacity to the buyers. Under both policies, particularly uniform allocation, the order forecast accuracy is improved with the supplier’s information disclosure on the policy. Next, we focus on buyers’ ordering behavior, and formulate a single-supplier-single-buyer base-stock inventory model under constrained supply. We validate our analytical results through numerical simulation, which is then extended to the single-supplier-two-buyer case. We next compare the buyers’ optimal decisions from the simulation with the actual decisions in our behavioral study, and find that buyers in the experiment show a significantly lower profit performance ranging from 0.8% to 14.1%. Using structural estimation modeling techniques, we estimate the buyers’ perceived overage/underage cost ratios from the experiment, and conclude by conducting a detailed analysis on the factors that affect buyers’ ordering decisions. In addition to academic contributions, our results provide insights for practitioners to understand buyers’ strategic behavior and help with designing capacity allocation strategies

Publications of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory 1982

A bibliography of articles concerning topics on the deep space network, data acquisition, telecommunication, and related aerospace studies is presented. A sample of the diverse subjects include, solar energy remote sensing, computer science, Earth resources, astronomy, and satellite communication

Inferring the equation of state with multi-messenger signals from binary neutron star mergers

The joint detection of the GW170817 and its electromagnetic counterparts was a milestone in multi-messenger astronomy. We investigate the observational constraints on the neutron star equation of state provided by multi-messenger data of binary neutron star mergers, analyzing the gravitational-wave transient GW170817 and its kilonova counterpart AT2017gfo and exploring new scenarios with next-generation gravitational-wave detectors. The LIGO-Virgo data of GW170817 are analyzed using different template models focusing on the implications for neutron star matter properties. We study the systematic tidal errors between current gravitational-wave models finding that waveform systematics dominate over statistical errors at signal-to-noise ratio ≳ 100. We study AT2017gfo using semi-analytical model showing that observational data favor multi-component anisotropic geometries to spherically symmetric profiles. By joining GW170817 and AT2017gfo information with the NICER measurements, we infer the neutron star equation of state constraining the radius of a 1.4M☉ neutron star to 12.39+0.70-0.65 km and the maximum mass MTOV to 2.08+0.16-0.09 M☉ (90% credible level). Finally, we explore future constraints on extreme-matter delivered by postmerger gravitational-waves from binary neutron star merger remnants. These transients can be detected with matched-filtering techniques and numerical-relativity-informed models for signal-to-noise ratios ≳ 7. Postmerger remnants can probe the high-density regimes of the nuclear equation of state, allowing the inference of the maximum neutron star mass MTOV with an accuracy of 12% (90% max credible level). Moreover, postmerger transients can be used to infer the presence of non-nucleonic matter phases through the inference of softening of the equation of state. For particular binary configurations, softening effects of the equation of state can lead to breaking of quasiuniversal properties and earlier collapse into black hole

Search for Second-Generation Leptoquarks in Proton-Antiproton Collisions

This document describes the search for second-generation leptoquarks (LQ_2) in around 114 pb^-1 of proton-antiproton collisions, recorded with the D0 detector between September 2002 and June 2003 at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV. The predictions of the Standard Model and models including scalar leptoquark production are compared to the data for various kinematic distributions. Since no excess of data over the Standard Model prediction has been observed, a lower limit on the leptoquark mass of M(LQ_2)_{beta=1} > 200 GeV/c^2 has been calculated at 95% confidence level (C.L.), assuming a branching fraction of beta = BF(LQ_2 --> mu j) = 100% into a charged lepton and a quark. The corresponding limit for beta = 1/2 is M(LQ_2)_{beta=1/2} > 152 GeV/c^2. Finally, the results were combined with those from the search in the same channel at D0 Run I. This combination yields the exclusion limit of 222 GeV/c^2 (177 GeV/c^2) for beta=1 (1/2) at 95% C.L., which is the best exclusion limit for scalar second-generation leptoquarks (for beta=1) from a single experiment to date.In diesem Dokument wird die Suche nach Leptoquarks der zweiten Generation (LQ_2) in Proton-Antiproton-Kollisionen beschrieben, die mit dem D0-Detektor am TeVatron-Beschleuniger aufgezeichnet wurden. Im Zeitraum von September 2002 bis Juni 2003 wurde eine integrierte Luminosität von rund 114 pb^-1 bei einer Schwerpunktsenergie von sqrt{s} = 1.96 TeV gesammelt. Die Vorhersagen des Standardmodells der Teilchenphysik und darüber hinausgehender Modelle mit skalaren Leptoquarks wurden mit den Daten verglichen. Da kein Überschuss an Daten über der Standardmodellvorhersage beobachtet werden konnte, wurde unter der Annahme, dass Leptoquarks zu 100% in geladene Leptonen und Quarks zerfallen (beta = BF(LQ_2 --> mu j) = 100%), eine untere Schranke von M(LQ_2)_{beta=1} > 200 GeV/c^2 (95% C.L.) für die Masse von skalaren Leptoquarks der zweiten Generation ermittelt. Die entsprechende Ausschlussgrenze für beta=1/2 liegt bei M(LQ_2)_{beta=1/2} > 152 GeV/c^2. Schließlich wurden die Resultate mit den Ergebnissen einer Suche im gleichen Kanal bei D0 Run I kombiniert. Diese Kombination liefert die Ausschlussgrenzen M(LQ_2)_{beta=1} > 222 GeV/c^2 (177 GeV/c^2) für beta=1 (1/2) und ist somit für beta=1 das zur Zeit beste Ergebnis für skalare Leptoquarks der zweiten Generation eines einzelnen Experimentes

Optimizing safety stock placement in general network supply chains

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Operations Research Center, 2004.Includes bibliographical references (p. 207-214).The amount of safety stock to hold at each stage in a supply chain is an important problem for a manufacturing company that faces uncertain demand and needs to provide a high level of service to its customers. The amount of stock held should be small to minimize holding and storage costs while retaining the ability to serve customers on time and satisfy most, if not all, of the demand. This thesis analyzes this problem by utilizing the framework of deterministic service time models and provides an algorithm for safety stock placement in general-network supply chains. We first show that the general problem is NP-hard. Next, we develop several conditions that characterize an optimal solution of the general-network problem. We find that we can identify all possible candidates for the optimal service times for a stage by constructing paths from the stage to each other stage in the supply chain. We use this construct, namely these paths, as the basis for a branch and bound algorithm for the general-network problem. To generate the lower bounds, we create and solve a spanning-tree relaxation of the general-network problem. We provide a polynomial algorithm to solve these spanning tree problems. We perform a set of computational experiments to assess the performance of the general-network algorithm and to determine how to set various parameters for the algorithm. In addition to the general network case, we consider two-layer network problems. We develop a specialized branch and bound algorithm for these problems and show computationally that it is more efficient than the general-network algorithm applied to the two-layer networks.by Ekaterina Lesnaia.Ph.D

Topics on financial crises in emerging countries case of Jordan

This thesis investigates the effect of monetary policy on financial stability and part of the real side of the Jordanian economy over the time period 1976-2009. It uses a number of empirical methodologies including: a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) to investigate the relationship between monetary policy and financial stability in Jordan; A Logit model and Markov switching model to study the currency crisis in Jordan; and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to estimate an investment function for the Jordanian economy. Findings of the VAR models confirmed the relationship between monetary policy and financial stability in Jordan. However, a number of indictors were found to have a significant effect on the currency crisis in Jordan. These indictors included the real exchange rate, money supply-reserves ratio, and growth rate of domestic credit. On the other hand, a stable long-run investment function exists. Real income and real credit were found to have a positive impact on real investment. However, the user cost of capital has had a negative impact on real investment

Physics-related epistemic uncertainties in proton depth dose simulation

A set of physics models and parameters pertaining to the simulation of proton energy deposition in matter are evaluated in the energy range up to approximately 65 MeV, based on their implementations in the Geant4 toolkit. The analysis assesses several features of the models and the impact of their associated epistemic uncertainties, i.e. uncertainties due to lack of knowledge, on the simulation results. Possible systematic effects deriving from uncertainties of this kind are highlighted; their relevance in relation to the application environment and different experimental requirements are discussed, with emphasis on the simulation of radiotherapy set-ups. By documenting quantitatively the features of a wide set of simulation models and the related intrinsic uncertainties affecting the simulation results, this analysis provides guidance regarding the use of the concerned simulation tools in experimental applications; it also provides indications for further experimental measurements addressing the sources of such uncertainties.Comment: To be published in IEEE Trans. Nucl. Sc