Molecular Infectious Disease Epidemiology: Survival Analysis and Algorithms Linking Phylogenies to Transmission Trees

Recent work has attempted to use whole-genome sequence data from pathogens to reconstruct the transmission trees linking infectors and infectees in outbreaks. However, transmission trees from one outbreak do not generalize to future outbreaks. Reconstruction of transmission trees is most useful to public health if it leads to generalizable scientific insights about disease transmission. In a survival analysis framework, estimation of transmission parameters is based on sums or averages over the possible transmission trees. A phylogeny can increase the precision of these estimates by providing partial information about who infected whom. The leaves of the phylogeny represent sampled pathogens, which have known hosts. The interior nodes represent common ancestors of sampled pathogens, which have unknown hosts. Starting from assumptions about disease biology and epidemiologic study design, we prove that there is a one-to-one correspondence between the possible assignments of interior node hosts and the transmission trees simultaneously consistent with the phylogeny and the epidemiologic data on person, place, and time. We develop algorithms to enumerate these transmission trees and show these can be used to calculate likelihoods that incorporate both epidemiologic data and a phylogeny. A simulation study confirms that this leads to more efficient estimates of hazard ratios for infectiousness and baseline hazards of infectious contact, and we use these methods to analyze data from a foot-and-mouth disease virus outbreak in the United Kingdom in 2001. These results demonstrate the importance of data on individuals who escape infection, which is often overlooked. The combination of survival analysis and algorithms linking phylogenies to transmission trees is a rigorous but flexible statistical foundation for molecular infectious disease epidemiology.Comment: 28 pages, 11 figures, 3 table

An ontology to standardize research output of nutritional epidemiology : from paper-based standards to linked content

Background: The use of linked data in the Semantic Web is a promising approach to add value to nutrition research. An ontology, which defines the logical relationships between well-defined taxonomic terms, enables linking and harmonizing research output. To enable the description of domain-specific output in nutritional epidemiology, we propose the Ontology for Nutritional Epidemiology (ONE) according to authoritative guidance for nutritional epidemiology. Methods: Firstly, a scoping review was conducted to identify existing ontology terms for reuse in ONE. Secondly, existing data standards and reporting guidelines for nutritional epidemiology were converted into an ontology. The terms used in the standards were summarized and listed separately in a taxonomic hierarchy. Thirdly, the ontologies of the nutritional epidemiologic standards, reporting guidelines, and the core concepts were gathered in ONE. Three case studies were included to illustrate potential applications: (i) annotation of existing manuscripts and data, (ii) ontology-based inference, and (iii) estimation of reporting completeness in a sample of nine manuscripts. Results: Ontologies for food and nutrition (n = 37), disease and specific population (n = 100), data description (n = 21), research description (n = 35), and supplementary (meta) data description (n = 44) were reviewed and listed. ONE consists of 339 classes: 79 new classes to describe data and 24 new classes to describe the content of manuscripts. Conclusion: ONE is a resource to automate data integration, searching, and browsing, and can be used to assess reporting completeness in nutritional epidemiology

Emerging Challenges and Opportunities in Infectious Disease Epidemiology.

Much of the intellectual tradition of modern epidemiology stems from efforts to understand and combat chronic diseases persisting through the 20th century epidemiologic transition of countries such as the United States and United Kingdom. After decades of relative obscurity, infectious disease epidemiology has undergone an intellectual rebirth in recent years amid increasing recognition of the threat posed by both new and familiar pathogens. Here, we review the emerging coalescence of infectious disease epidemiology around a core set of study designs and statistical methods bearing little resemblance to the chronic disease epidemiology toolkit. We offer our outlook on challenges and opportunities facing the field, including the integration of novel molecular and digital information sources into disease surveillance, the assimilation of such data into models of pathogen spread, and the increasing contribution of models to public health practice. We next consider emerging paradigms in causal inference for infectious diseases, ranging from approaches to evaluating vaccines and antimicrobial therapies to the task of ascribing clinical syndromes to etiologic microorganisms, an age-old problem transformed by our increasing ability to characterize human-associated microbiota. These areas represent an increasingly important component of epidemiology training programs for future generations of researchers and practitioners

Modeling hierarchical relationships in epidemiological studies: a Bayesian networks approach

Hierarchical relationships between risk factors are seldom taken into account in epidemiological studies though some authors stressed the importance of doing so, and proposed a conceptual framework in which each level of the hierarchy is modeled separately. The objective of this paper was to implement a simple version of their framework, and to propose an alternative procedure based on a Bayesian Network (BN). These approaches were illustrated in modeling the risk of diarrhea infection for 2740 children aged 0 to 59 months in Cameroon. The authors implemented a (naïve) logistic regression, a step-level logistic regression and also a BN. While the first approach is inadequate, the two others approaches both account for the hierarchical structure but to different estimates and interpretations. BN implementation showed that a child in a family in the poorest group has respectively 89%, 40% and 18% probabilities of having poor sanitation, being malnourished and having diarrhea. An advantage of the latter approach is that it enables one to determine the probability that a risk factor (and/or the outcome) is in a given state, given the states of the others. Although the BN considered here is very simple, the method can deal with more complicated models.Bayesian networks; hierarchical model; diarrhea infection; disease determinants; logistic regression

Decreased microbial co-occurrence network stability and SCFA receptor level correlates with obesity in African-origin women.

We compared the gut microbial populations in 100 women, from rural Ghana and urban US [50% lean (BMI < 25 kg/m2) and 50% obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2)] to examine the ecological co-occurrence network topology of the gut microbiota as well as the relationship of short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) with obesity. Ghanaians consumed significantly more dietary fiber, had greater microbial alpha-diversity, different beta-diversity, and had a greater concentration of total fecal SCFAs (p-value < 0.002). Lean Ghanaians had significantly greater network density, connectivity and stability than either obese Ghanaians, or lean and obese US participants (false discovery rate (FDR) corrected p-value ≤ 0.01). Bacteroides uniformis was significantly more abundant in lean women, irrespective of country (FDR corrected p < 0.001), while lean Ghanaians had a significantly greater proportion of Ruminococcus callidus, Prevotella copri, and Escherichia coli, and smaller proportions of Lachnospiraceae, Bacteroides and Parabacteroides. Lean Ghanaians had a significantly greater abundance of predicted microbial genes that catalyzed the production of butyric acid via the fermentation of pyruvate or branched amino-acids, while obese Ghanaians and US women (irrespective of BMI) had a significantly greater abundance of predicted microbial genes that encoded for enzymes associated with the fermentation of amino-acids such as alanine, aspartate, lysine and glutamate. Similar to lean Ghanaian women, mice humanized with stool from the lean Ghanaian participant had a significantly lower abundance of family Lachnospiraceae and genus Bacteroides and Parabacteroides, and were resistant to obesity following 6-weeks of high fat feeding (p-value < 0.01). Obesity-resistant mice also showed increased intestinal transcriptional expression of the free fatty acid (Ffa) receptor Ffa2, in spite of similar fecal SCFAs concentrations. We demonstrate that the association between obesity resistance and increased predicted ecological connectivity and stability of the lean Ghanaian microbiota, as well as increased local SCFA receptor level, provides evidence of the importance of robust gut ecologic network in obesity