Energy rating of a water pumping station using multivariate analysis

Among water management policies, the preservation and the saving of energy demand in water supply and treatment systems play key roles. When focusing on energy, the customary metric to determine the performance of water supply systems is linked to the definition of component-based energy indicators. This approach is unfit to account for interactions occurring among system elements or between the system and its environment. On the other hand, the development of information technology has led to the availability of increasing large amount of data, typically gathered from distributed sensor networks in so-called smart grids. In this context, data intensive methodologies address the possibility of using complex network modeling approaches, and advocate the issues related to the interpretation and analysis of large amount of data produced by smart sensor networks. In this perspective, the present work aims to use data intensive techniques in the energy analysis of a water management network. The purpose is to provide new metrics for the energy rating of the system and to be able to provide insights into the dynamics of its operations. The study applies neural network as a tool to predict energy demand, when using flowrate and vibration data as predictor variables

Boosted Beta regression.

Regression analysis with a bounded outcome is a common problem in applied statistics. Typical examples include regression models for percentage outcomes and the analysis of ratings that are measured on a bounded scale. In this paper, we consider beta regression, which is a generalization of logit models to situations where the response is continuous on the interval (0,1). Consequently, beta regression is a convenient tool for analyzing percentage responses. The classical approach to fit a beta regression model is to use maximum likelihood estimation with subsequent AIC-based variable selection. As an alternative to this established - yet unstable - approach, we propose a new estimation technique called boosted beta regression. With boosted beta regression estimation and variable selection can be carried out simultaneously in a highly efficient way. Additionally, both the mean and the variance of a percentage response can be modeled using flexible nonlinear covariate effects. As a consequence, the new method accounts for common problems such as overdispersion and non-binomial variance structures

Wind Power Forecasting Methods Based on Deep Learning: A Survey

Accurate wind power forecasting in wind farm can effectively reduce the enormous impact on grid operation safety when high permeability intermittent power supply is connected to the power grid. Aiming to provide reference strategies for relevant researchers as well as practical applications, this paper attempts to provide the literature investigation and methods analysis of deep learning, enforcement learning and transfer learning in wind speed and wind power forecasting modeling. Usually, wind speed and wind power forecasting around a wind farm requires the calculation of the next moment of the definite state, which is usually achieved based on the state of the atmosphere that encompasses nearby atmospheric pressure, temperature, roughness, and obstacles. As an effective method of high-dimensional feature extraction, deep neural network can theoretically deal with arbitrary nonlinear transformation through proper structural design, such as adding noise to outputs, evolutionary learning used to optimize hidden layer weights, optimize the objective function so as to save information that can improve the output accuracy while filter out the irrelevant or less affected information for forecasting. The establishment of high-precision wind speed and wind power forecasting models is always a challenge due to the randomness, instantaneity and seasonal characteristics

Feasibility of using neural networks to obtain simplified capacity curves for seismic assessment

The selection of a given method for the seismic vulnerability assessment of buildings is mostly dependent on the scale of the analysis. Results obtained in large-scale studies are usually less accurate than the ones obtained in small-scale studies. In this paper a study about the feasibility of using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to carry out fast and accurate large-scale seismic vulnerability studies has been presented. In the proposed approach, an ANN was used to obtain a simplified capacity curve of a building typology, in order to use the N2 method to assess the structural seismic behaviour, as presented in the Annex B of the Eurocode 8. Aiming to study the accuracy of the proposed approach, two ANNs with equal architectures were trained with a different number of vectors, trying to evaluate the ANN capacity to achieve good results in domains of the problem which are not well represented by the training vectors. The case study presented in this work allowed the conclusion that the ANN precision is very dependent on the amount of data used to train the ANN and demonstrated that it is possible to use ANN to obtain simplified capacity curves for seismic assessment purposes with high precision.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Improving bankruptcy prediction in micro-entities by using nonlinear effects and non-financial variables

The use of non-parametric methodologies, the introduction of non-financial variables, and the development of models geared towards the homogeneous characteristics of corporate sub-populations have recently experienced a surge of interest in the bankruptcy literature. However, no research on default prediction has yet focused on micro-entities (MEs), despite such firms’ importance in the global economy. This paper builds the first bankruptcy model especially designed for MEs by using a wide set of accounts from 1999 to 2008 and applying artificial neural networks (ANNs). Our findings show that ANNs outperform the traditional logistic regression (LR) models. In addition, we also report that, thanks to the introduction of non-financial predictors related to age, the delay in filing accounts, legal action by creditors to recover unpaid debts, and the ownership features of the company, the improvement with respect to the use of solely financial information is 3.6%, which is even higher than the improvement that involves the use of the best ANN (2.6%)

Econometric modelling in finance and risk management: An overview

This paper gives an overview about the sixteen papers included in this special issue. The papers in this special issue cover a wide range of topics. Such topics include discussing a class of tests for correlation, estimation of realized volatility, modeling time series and continuous-time models with long-range dependence, estimation and specification testing of time series models, estimation in a factor model with high-dimensional problems, finite-sample examination of quasi-maximum likelihood estimation in an autoregressive conditional duration model, and estimation in a dynamic additive quantile model.Continuous-time model; correlation test; dynamic additive model; estimation of realized volatility; factor model; long-range dependence

Geoadditive Regression Modeling of Stream Biological Condition

Indices of biotic integrity (IBI) have become an established tool to quantify the condition of small non-tidal streams and their watersheds. To investigate the effects of watershed characteristics on stream biological condition, we present a new technique for regressing IBIs on watershed-specific explanatory variables. Since IBIs are typically evaluated on anordinal scale, our method is based on the proportional odds model for ordinal outcomes. To avoid overfitting, we do not use classical maximum likelihood estimation but a component-wise functional gradient boosting approach. Because component-wise gradient boosting has an intrinsic mechanism for variable selection and model choice, determinants of biotic integrity can be identified. In addition, the method offers a relatively simple way to account for spatial correlation in ecological data. An analysis of the Maryland Biological Streams Survey shows that nonlinear effects of predictor variables on stream condition can be quantified while, in addition, accurate predictions of biological condition at unsurveyed locations are obtained

Seismic Response of a Tall Building to Recorded and Simulated Ground Motions

Seismological modeling technologies are advancing to the stage of enabling fundamental simulation of earthquake fault ruptures, which offer new opportunities to simulate extreme ground motions for collapse safety assessment and earthquake scenarios for community resilience studies. With the goal toward establishing the reliability of simulated ground motions for performance-based engineering, this paper examines the response of a 20-story concrete moment frame building analyzed by nonlinear dynamic analysis under corresponding sets of recorded and simulated ground motions. The simulated ground motions were obtained through a larger validation study via the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Broadband Platform (BBP) that simulates magnitude 5.9 to 7.3 earthquakes. Spectral shape and significant duration are considered when selecting ground motions in the development of comparable sets of simulated and recorded ground motions. Structural response is examined at different intensity levels up to collapse, to investigate whether a statistically significant difference exists between the responses to simulated and recorded ground motions. Results indicate that responses to simulated and recorded ground motions are generally similar at intensity levels prior to observation of collapses. Collapse capacities are also in good agreement for this structure. However, when the structure was made more sensitive to effects of ground motion duration, the differences between observed collapse responses increased. Research is ongoing to illuminate reasons for the difference and whether there is a systematic bias in the results that can be traced back to the ground motion simulation techniques

Are any growth theories linear? Why we should care about what the evidence tells us

Recent research on macroeconomic growth has been focused on resolving several key issues, two of which, specification uncertainty of the growth process and variable uncertainty, have received much attention in the recent literature. The standard procedure has been to assume a linear growth process and then to proceed with investigating the relevant variables that determine growth across countries. However, a more appropriate approach would be to recognize that a misspecified model may lead one to conclude that a variable is relevant when in fact it is not. This paper takes a step in this direction by considering conditional variable uncertainty with full blown specification uncertainty. We use recently developed nonparametric model selection techniques to deal with nonlinearities and competing growth theories. We show how one can interpret our results and use them to motivate more intriguing specifications within the traditional studies that use Bayesian Model Averaging or other model selection criteria. We find that the inclusion of nonlinearities is necessary for determining the empirically relevant variables that dictate growth and that nonlinearities are especially important in uncovering key mechanism of the growth process.Growth Nonlinearities, Irrelevant Variables, Least Squares Cross Validation, Bayesian Model Averaging, Parameter Heterogeneity