539 research outputs found
Soft Computing Techniques for Stock Market Prediction: A Literature Survey
Stock market trading is an unending investment exercise globally. It has potentials to generate high returns on investors’ investment. However, it is characterized by high risk of investment hence, having knowledge and ability to predict stock price or market movement is invaluable to investors in the stock market. Over the years, several soft computing techniques have been used to analyze various stock markets to retrieve knowledge to guide investors on when to buy or sell. This paper surveys over 100 published articles that focus on the application of soft computing techniques to forecast stock markets. The aim of this paper is to present a coherent of information on various soft computing techniques employed for stock market prediction. This research work will enable researchers in this field to know the current trend as well as help to inform their future research efforts. From the surveyed articles, it is evident that researchers have firmly focused on the development of hybrid prediction models and substantial work has also been done on the use of social media data for stock market prediction. It is also revealing that most studies have focused on the prediction of stock prices in emerging market
Soft Computing Techniques for Stock Market Prediction: A Literature Survey
Stock market trading is an unending investment exercise globally. It has potentials to generate high returns on investors’ investment. However, it is characterized by high risk of investment hence, having knowledge and ability to predict stock price or market movement is invaluable to investors in the stock market. Over the years, several soft computing techniques have been used to analyze various stock markets to retrieve knowledge to guide investors on when to buy or sell. This paper surveys over 100 published articles that focus on the application of soft computing techniques to forecast stock markets. The aim of this paper is to present a coherent of information on various soft computing techniques employed for stock market prediction. This research work will enable researchers in this field to know the current trend as well as help to inform their future research efforts. From the surveyed articles, it is evident that researchers have firmly focused on the development of hybrid prediction models and substantial work has also been done on the use of social media data for stock market prediction. It is also revealing that most studies have focused on the prediction of stock prices in emerging market
A Credit Rating Model in a Fuzzy Inference System Environment
One of the most important functions of an export credit agency (ECA) is to act as an intermediary between national governments and exporters. These organizations provide financing to reduce the political and commercial risks in international trade. The agents assess the buyers based on financial and non-financial indicators to determine whether it is advisable to grant them credit. Because many of these indicators are qualitative and inherently linguistically ambiguous, the agents must make decisions in uncertain environments. Therefore, to make the most accurate decision possible, they often utilize fuzzy inference systems. The purpose of this research was to design a credit rating model in an uncertain environment using the fuzzy inference system (FIS). In this research, we used suitable variables of agency ratings from previous studies and then screened them via the Delphi method. Finally, we created a credit rating model using these variables and FIS including related IF-THEN rules which can be applied in a practical setting
Evolving neuro-fuzzy tools for system classification and prediction
"Classification and prediction algorithims have recently become very powerful tools to a wide array of real-world applications. Some real world applications include system condition monitoring, bioinformatics, robotics, predictive control, earthquake prediction, weather forecasting, stock market and traffic pattern prediction, just to name a few. Within this work, several novel approaches, as well as modifications to some existing approaches, are introduced in order to improve the performance of current classification and prediction paradigms. In the first section of this work, a novel weighted recurrent neuro-fuzzy inference system is introduced alongside two existing neural networks. It is found that the novel design outperforms both the existing neural networks in terms of equal-step and sequential-step inputs for time-series forecasting. The second contribution of this work is the development of a novel evolving clustering algorithim for classification and prediction. This particular algorithim starts without any priori knowledge of the distribution of the data set. The novel design is capable of revealing the true cluster configuration in a single pass of the data, estimating the location and variance of each cluster. After a rigorous performance evaluation, it is found that the novel design outperforms many existing clustering approaches including the well-known potential-based evolving Takagi-Sugeno (eTS) clustering scheme. The third and fourth contributions of this work are the development of a second novel clustering technique and a novel hybrid training technique. The clustering technique is a combination of the aforementioned scheme and the potential-based technique. The new training algorithm is a combination of the decoupled-extended Kalman filter (for the backward pass) and the recursive least-sequares estimate (for the forward pass). It is found that the novel clustering technique outperforms many available clustering techniques. Also, the novel training algorithm is proven to outperform most existing training techniques."--Abstrac
Soft Computing Approaches to Stock Forecasting: A Survey
Soft computing techniques has been effectively applied in business, engineering, medical domain to solve problems in the past decade. However, this paper focuses on censoring the application of soft computing techniques for stock market prediction in the last decade (2010 - todate). Over a hundred published articles on stock price prediction were reviewed. The survey is done by grouping these published articles into: the stock market surveyed, input variable choices, summary of modelling technique applied, comparative studies, and summary of performance measures. This survey aptly shows that soft computing techniques are widely used and it has demonstrated widely acceptability to accurately use for predicting stock price and stock index behavior worldwide
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An electronic financial system adviser for investors: the case of Saudi Arabia
This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University LondonFinancial markets, particularly capital and stock markets, play an important role in mobilizing and canalising the idle savings of individuals and institutions to the investment options where they are really required for productive purposes. The prediction of stock prices and returns is carried out in order to enhance the quality of investment decisions in stock markets, but it is considered to be tricky and complicates tasks as these prices behave in a random fashion and vary with time. Owing to the potential of returns and inherent risk factors in stock market returns. Various stock market prediction models and decision support systems such as Capital asset pricing model, the arbitrage pricing theory of Ross, the inter-temporal capital asset pricing model of Merton ,Fama and French five-factor model, and zero beta model to provide investors with an optimal forecast of stock prices and returns. In this research thesis, a stock market prediction model consisting of two parts is presented and discussed. The first is the three factors of the Fama and French model (FF) at the micro level to forecast the return of the portfolios on the Saudi Arabian Stock Exchange (SASE) and the second is a Value Based Management (VBM) model of decision-making. The latter is based on the expectations of shareholders and portfolio investors about taking investment decisions, and on the behaviour of stock prices using an accurate modern nonlinear technique in forecasting, known as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN).
This study examined monthly data relating to common stocks from the listed companies of the Saudi Arabian Stock Exchange from January 2007 to December 2011. The stock returns were predicted using the linear form of asset pricing models (capital asset pricing model as well as Fama and French three factor model). In addition, non-linear models were also estimated by using various artificial neural network techniques, and adaptive neural fuzzy inference systems. Six portfolios of stock predictors are combined using: average, weighted average, and genetic algorithm optimized weighted average. Moreover, value-based management models were applied to the investment decision-making process in combination with stock prediction model results for both the shareholders’ perspective and the share prices’ perspective. The results from this study indicate that the ANN technique can be used to predict stock portfolio returns; the investment decisions and the behaviour of stock prices, optimized by the genetic algorithm weighted average, provided better results in terms of error and prediction accuracy compared to the simple linear form of stock price prediction models. The Fama and French model of stock prediction is better suited to Saudi Arabian Stock Exchange investment activities in comparison to the conventional capital assets pricing model. Moreover, the multi-stage type1 model, which is a combination of Fama and French predicted stock returns and a value-based management model, gives more accurate results for the stock market decision-making process for investment or divestment decisions, as well as for observing variation in and the behaviour of stock prices on the Saudi stock market. Furthermore, the study also designed a graphic user interface in order to simplify the decision-making process based upon Fama and French and value-based management, which might help Saudi investors to make investment decisions quickly and with greater precision. Finally, the study also gives some practical implications for investors and regulators, along with proposing future research in this area
Recurrent error-based ridge polynomial neural networks for time series forecasting
Time series forecasting has attracted much attention due to its impact on many practical
applications. Neural networks (NNs) have been attracting widespread interest as
a promising tool for time series forecasting. The majority of NNs employ only autoregressive
(AR) inputs (i.e., lagged time series values) when forecasting time series.
Moving-average (MA) inputs (i.e., errors) however have not adequately considered.
The use of MA inputs, which can be done by feeding back forecasting errors as extra
network inputs, alongside AR inputs help to produce more accurate forecasts. Among
numerous existing NNs architectures, higher order neural networks (HONNs), which
have a single layer of learnable weights, were considered in this research work as they
have demonstrated an ability to deal with time series forecasting and have an simple
architecture. Based on two HONNs models, namely the feedforward ridge polynomial
neural network (RPNN) and the recurrent dynamic ridge polynomial neural network
(DRPNN), two recurrent error-based models were proposed. These models were
called the ridge polynomial neural network with error feedback (RPNN-EF) and the
ridge polynomial neural network with error-output feedbacks (RPNN-EOF). Extensive
simulations covering ten time series were performed. Besides RPNN and DRPNN, a
pi-sigma neural network and a Jordan pi-sigma neural network were used for comparison.
Simulation results showed that introducing error feedback to the models lead
to significant forecasting performance improvements. Furthermore, it was found that
the proposed models outperformed many state-of-the-art models. It was concluded
that the proposed models have the capability to efficiently forecast time series and that
practitioners could benefit from using these forecasting models
Dynamic non-linear system modelling using wavelet-based soft computing techniques
The enormous number of complex systems results in the necessity of high-level and cost-efficient
modelling structures for the operators and system designers. Model-based approaches offer a very
challenging way to integrate a priori knowledge into the procedure. Soft computing based models
in particular, can successfully be applied in cases of highly nonlinear problems. A further reason
for dealing with so called soft computational model based techniques is that in real-world cases,
many times only partial, uncertain and/or inaccurate data is available.
Wavelet-Based soft computing techniques are considered, as one of the latest trends in system
identification/modelling. This thesis provides a comprehensive synopsis of the main wavelet-based
approaches to model the non-linear dynamical systems in real world problems in conjunction with
possible twists and novelties aiming for more accurate and less complex modelling structure.
Initially, an on-line structure and parameter design has been considered in an adaptive Neuro-
Fuzzy (NF) scheme. The problem of redundant membership functions and consequently fuzzy
rules is circumvented by applying an adaptive structure. The growth of a special type of Fungus
(Monascus ruber van Tieghem) is examined against several other approaches for further
justification of the proposed methodology.
By extending the line of research, two Morlet Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) structures have
been introduced. Increasing the accuracy and decreasing the computational cost are both the
primary targets of proposed novelties. Modifying the synoptic weights by replacing them with
Linear Combination Weights (LCW) and also imposing a Hybrid Learning Algorithm (HLA)
comprising of Gradient Descent (GD) and Recursive Least Square (RLS), are the tools utilised for
the above challenges. These two models differ from the point of view of structure while they share
the same HLA scheme. The second approach contains an additional Multiplication layer, plus its
hidden layer contains several sub-WNNs for each input dimension. The practical superiority of
these extensions is demonstrated by simulation and experimental results on real non-linear
dynamic system; Listeria Monocytogenes survival curves in Ultra-High Temperature (UHT)
whole milk, and consolidated with comprehensive comparison with other suggested schemes.
At the next stage, the extended clustering-based fuzzy version of the proposed WNN schemes, is
presented as the ultimate structure in this thesis. The proposed Fuzzy Wavelet Neural network
(FWNN) benefitted from Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) clustering feature, updated by a
modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. One of the main aims of this thesis is to illustrate how the GMM-EM scheme could be used not only for detecting useful knowledge from
the data by building accurate regression, but also for the identification of complex systems.
The structure of FWNN is based on the basis of fuzzy rules including wavelet functions in the
consequent parts of rules. In order to improve the function approximation accuracy and general
capability of the FWNN system, an efficient hybrid learning approach is used to adjust the
parameters of dilation, translation, weights, and membership. Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is
employed for wavelet parameters adjustment together with Weighted Least Square (WLS) which
is dedicated for the Linear Combination Weights fine-tuning. The results of a real-world
application of Short Time Load Forecasting (STLF) further re-enforced the plausibility of the
above technique
Literature Review of the Recent Trends and Applications in various Fuzzy Rule based systems
Fuzzy rule based systems (FRBSs) is a rule-based system which uses linguistic
fuzzy variables as antecedents and consequent to represent human understandable
knowledge. They have been applied to various applications and areas throughout
the soft computing literature. However, FRBSs suffers from many drawbacks such
as uncertainty representation, high number of rules, interpretability loss,
high computational time for learning etc. To overcome these issues with FRBSs,
there exists many extensions of FRBSs. This paper presents an overview and
literature review of recent trends on various types and prominent areas of
fuzzy systems (FRBSs) namely genetic fuzzy system (GFS), hierarchical fuzzy
system (HFS), neuro fuzzy system (NFS), evolving fuzzy system (eFS), FRBSs for
big data, FRBSs for imbalanced data, interpretability in FRBSs and FRBSs which
use cluster centroids as fuzzy rules. The review is for years 2010-2021. This
paper also highlights important contributions, publication statistics and
current trends in the field. The paper also addresses several open research
areas which need further attention from the FRBSs research community.Comment: 49 pages, Accepted for publication in ijf
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