Dynamic Simulation Of Air Cargo

This paper establishes an approach to forecast air cargo demand related to terminal capacity expansion. To balance capacity and demand, it is required to forecast the future demand based on optimistic and pessimistic projections to decide when and how much, the airport should expand the capacity. System dynamics simulation model can provide reliable forecast and generate scenarios to test alternative assumptions and decisions. It was found that GDP and FDI play an important role in fostering the demand. Terminal expansion would be required in 2014 and 2021 at the optimistic projection; meanwhile, based on pessimistic projection, capacity should be expanded in 2025

Survey of air cargo forecasting techniques

Forecasting techniques currently in use in estimating or predicting the demand for air cargo in various markets are discussed with emphasis on the fundamentals of the different forecasting approaches. References to specific studies are cited when appropriate. The effectiveness of current methods is evaluated and several prospects for future activities or approaches are suggested. Appendices contain summary type analyses of about 50 specific publications on forecasting, and selected bibliographies on air cargo forecasting, air passenger demand forecasting, and general demand and modalsplit modeling

Cost Optimization Modeling for Airport Capacity Expansion Problems in Metropolitan Areas

The purpose of this research was to develop a cost optimization model to identify an optimal solution to expand airport capacity in metropolitan areas in consideration of demand uncertainties. The study first analyzed four airport capacity expansion cases from different regions of the world to identify possible solutions to expand airport capacity and key cost functions which are highly related to airport capacity problems. Using mixedinteger nonlinear programming (MINLP), a deterministic optimization model was developed with the inclusion of six cost functions: capital cost, operation cost, delay cost, noise cost, operation readiness, and airport transfer (ORAT) cost, and passenger access cost. These six cost functions can be used to consider a possible trade-off between airport capacity and congestion and address multiple stakeholders’ cost concerns. This deterministic model was validated using an example case of the Sydney metropolitan area in Australia, which presented an optimal solution of a dual airport system along with scalable outcomes for a 50-year timeline. The study also tested alternative input values to the discount rate, operation cost, and passenger access costs to review the reliability of the deterministic model. Six additional experimental models were tested, and all models successfully yielded optimal solutions. The moderating effects of financial discount rate, airport operation cost, and passenger access costs on the optimal solution were quantitatively the same in presence of a deterministic demand profile. This deterministic model was then transformed into a stochastic optimization model to address concerns with the uncertainty of future traffic demand, which was further reviewed with three what-if demand scenarios of the Sydney Model: random and positive growth of traffic demand, normal distribution of traffic demand changes based on the historical traffic record of the Sydney region, and reflection of the current COVID- 19 pandemic situation. This study used a Monte Carlo simulation to address the uncertainty of future traffic demand as an uncontrollable input. The Sydney Model and three What-if Models successfully presented objective model outcomes and identified the optimal solutions to expand airport capacity while minimizing overall costs. The results of this work indicated that the moderating effect of traffic uncertainties can make a difference with an optimal solution. Therefore, airport decision-makers and airport planners should carefully consider the uncertainty factors that would influence the airport capacity expansion solution. This research demonstrated the effectiveness of combining MINLP and the Monte Carlo simulation to support a long-term strategic decision for airport capacity problems in metropolitan areas at the early stages of the planning process while addressing future traffic demand uncertainty. Other uncertainty factors, such as political events, new technologies, alternative modes of transport, financial crisis, technological innovation, and demographic changes might also be treated as uncontrollable variables to augment this optimization model

Assessing the future of air freight

The role of air cargo in the current transportation system in the United States is explored. Methods for assessing the future role of this mode of transportation include the use of continuous-time recursive systems modeling for the simulation of different components of the air freight system, as well as for the development of alternative future scenarios which may result from different policy actions. A basic conceptual framework for conducting such a dynamic simulation is presented within the context of the air freight industry. Some research needs are identified and recommended for further research. The benefits, limitations, pitfalls, and problems usually associated with large scale systems models are examined

A STUDY ON TRANSPORT PLANNING SOLUTIONS TO MEET THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOGISTICS SERVICES, A CASE IN CAI MEP-THI VAI PORT

costs for businesses in the region in order to form reasonable transportation routes, within and outside the guaranteed area. Improve the output of goods through and reduce social costs, in accordance with the planning of the transportation system, improve socio-economic efficiency in goods circulation. Methodology: This study uses statistical methods - data analysis, survey analysis, trend approach to forecast such as goods demand through ports, assess the nature of the problem and find specific solutions to devise optimal planning solutions. Main Findings: Transport infrastructure directly affects logistics performance, particularly on time, cost, reliability, and safety of this service, thereby affecting the growth rate of the economy in general and the business efficiency of enterprises in particular. Therefore, in order to meet the fast development of Cai Mep-Thi Vai logistics and port system, the transport infrastructure must be concerned, planned, and deployed in a synchronized and proper manner. Applications of this study: The Cai Mep-Thi Vai port area being invested and built and developed will be of utmost importance in Vietnam, with access to international maritime routes, connecting with existing wharves to form a continuous port system serving the dynamic economic development centers of the southern and international regions. Novelty/Originality of this study: The problems of port logistics and transport infrastructure to serve logistics. Provide some general theoretical issues about transportation for port logistics services. Also basing on foreign experiment and regional lessons to evaluate the existence of transport infrastructure for logistics services in Cai Mep-Thi Vai port area; point out the shortcomings and inadequacies of transport infrastructure for logistics

Digital Twin of the Air Cargo Supply Chain

In this paper we develop a digital twin based on the new One Record linked data standard. This enables short-term workload prediction for the various partners in the air cargo supply chain without the need for multiple data exchange interfaces. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first research on the potential benefits of One Record. The concept of the digital twin allows for an overarching optimization of operations in the air cargo supply chain without the necessity of full transparency between all the partners

Thermal area effectiveness for future aircraft

Problem areas in airport planning, design, and operations identified by a decision matrix developed to display various airport functions interfaced with facilities and an extensive literature survey were investigated. Areas considered include: site selection and growth potential; emissions and noise control/containment for airports; financial and legal aspects of airport planning, contruction, and operation; intra-airport transportation and other passenger flow facilitators; simulation and modeling for airports; guidelines for airport multimodal access planning. Results are summarized and a bibliography is included