Time series prediction by perturbed fuzzy model

This paper presents a fuzzy system approach to the prediction of nonlinear time series and dynamical systems based on a fuzzy model that includes its derivative information. The underlying mechanism governing the time series, expressed as a set of IF–THEN rules, is discovered by a modified structure of fuzzy system in order to capture the temporal series and its temporal derivative information. The task of predicting the future is carried out by a fuzzy predictor on the basis of the extracted rules and by the Taylor ODE solver method. We have applied the approach to the benchmark Mackey-Glass chaotic time series.This work was supported by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) under grant POSI/SRI/41975/2001

Determination of fuzzy relations for economic fuzzy time series models by neural networks

Based on the works /11, 22, 27/ a fuzzy time series model is proposed and applied to predict chaotic financial process. Thwe general methodological framework of classical and fuzzy modelling of economic time series is considered. A complete fuzzy time series modellling approach is proposed which includes: determining and developing of fuzzy time series models, developing and calculating of fuzzy relations among the observations, calculating and interpreting the outputs. To generate fuzzy rules from data, the neural network with SCL-based product-space clustering is used

Value Function Estimation in Optimal Control via Takagi-Sugeno Models and Linear Programming

[ES] La presente Tesis emplea técnicas de programación dinámica y aprendizaje por refuerzo para el control de sistemas no lineales en espacios discretos y continuos. Inicialmente se realiza una revisión de los conceptos básicos de programación dinámica y aprendizaje por refuerzo para sistemas con un número finito de estados. Se analiza la extensión de estas técnicas mediante el uso de funciones de aproximación que permiten ampliar su aplicabilidad a sistemas con un gran número de estados o sistemas continuos. Las contribuciones de la Tesis son: -Se presenta una metodología que combina identificación y ajuste de la función Q, que incluye la identificación de un modelo Takagi-Sugeno, el cálculo de controladores subóptimos a partir de desigualdades matriciales lineales y el consiguiente ajuste basado en datos de la función Q a través de una optimización monotónica. -Se propone una metodología para el aprendizaje de controladores utilizando programación dinámica aproximada a través de programación lineal. La metodología hace que ADP-LP funcione en aplicaciones prácticas de control con estados y acciones continuos. La metodología propuesta estima una cota inferior y superior de la función de valor óptima a través de aproximadores funcionales. Se establecen pautas para los datos y la regularización de regresores con el fin de obtener resultados satisfactorios evitando soluciones no acotadas o mal condicionadas. -Se plantea una metodología bajo el enfoque de programación lineal aplicada a programación dinámica aproximada para obtener una mejor aproximación de la función de valor óptima en una determinada región del espacio de estados. La metodología propone aprender gradualmente una política utilizando datos disponibles sólo en la región de exploración. La exploración incrementa progresivamente la región de aprendizaje hasta obtener una política convergida.[CA] La present Tesi empra tècniques de programació dinàmica i aprenentatge per reforç per al control de sistemes no lineals en espais discrets i continus. Inicialment es realitza una revisió dels conceptes bàsics de programació dinàmica i aprenentatge per reforç per a sistemes amb un nombre finit d'estats. S'analitza l'extensió d'aquestes tècniques mitjançant l'ús de funcions d'aproximació que permeten ampliar la seua aplicabilitat a sistemes amb un gran nombre d'estats o sistemes continus. Les contribucions de la Tesi són: -Es presenta una metodologia que combina identificació i ajust de la funció Q, que inclou la identificació d'un model Takagi-Sugeno, el càlcul de controladors subòptims a partir de desigualtats matricials lineals i el consegüent ajust basat en dades de la funció Q a través d'una optimització monotónica. -Es proposa una metodologia per a l'aprenentatge de controladors utilitzant programació dinàmica aproximada a través de programació lineal. La metodologia fa que ADP-LP funcione en aplicacions pràctiques de control amb estats i accions continus. La metodologia proposada estima una cota inferior i superior de la funció de valor òptima a través de aproximadores funcionals. S'estableixen pautes per a les dades i la regularització de regresores amb la finalitat d'obtenir resultats satisfactoris evitant solucions no fitades o mal condicionades. -Es planteja una metodologia sota l'enfocament de programació lineal aplicada a programació dinàmica aproximada per a obtenir una millor aproximació de la funció de valor òptima en una determinada regió de l'espai d'estats. La metodologia proposa aprendre gradualment una política utilitzant dades disponibles només a la regió d'exploració. L'exploració incrementa progressivament la regió d'aprenentatge fins a obtenir una política convergida.[EN] The present Thesis employs dynamic programming and reinforcement learning techniques in order to obtain optimal policies for controlling nonlinear systems with discrete and continuous states and actions. Initially, a review of the basic concepts of dynamic programming and reinforcement learning is carried out for systems with a finite number of states. After that, the extension of these techniques to systems with a large number of states or continuous state systems is analysed using approximation functions. The contributions of the Thesis are: -A combined identification/Q-function fitting methodology, which involves identification of a Takagi-Sugeno model, computation of (sub)optimal controllers from Linear Matrix Inequalities, and the subsequent data-based fitting of Q-function via monotonic optimisation. -A methodology for learning controllers using approximate dynamic programming via linear programming is presented. The methodology makes that ADP-LP approach can work in practical control applications with continuous state and input spaces. The proposed methodology estimates a lower bound and upper bound of the optimal value function through functional approximators. Guidelines are provided for data and regressor regularisation in order to obtain satisfactory results avoiding unbounded or ill-conditioned solutions. -A methodology of approximate dynamic programming via linear programming in order to obtain a better approximation of the optimal value function in a specific region of state space. The methodology proposes to gradually learn a policy using data available only in the exploration region. The exploration progressively increases the learning region until a converged policy is obtained.This work was supported by the National Department of Higher Education, Science, Technology and Innovation of Ecuador (SENESCYT), and the Spanish ministry of Economy and European Union, grant DPI2016-81002-R (AEI/FEDER,UE). The author also received the grant for a predoctoral stay, Programa de Becas Iberoamérica- Santander Investigación 2018, of the Santander Bank.Díaz Iza, HP. (2020). Value Function Estimation in Optimal Control via Takagi-Sugeno Models and Linear Programming [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/139135TESI

Neural Networks for Modeling and Control of Particle Accelerators

We describe some of the challenges of particle accelerator control, highlight recent advances in neural network techniques, discuss some promising avenues for incorporating neural networks into particle accelerator control systems, and describe a neural network-based control system that is being developed for resonance control of an RF electron gun at the Fermilab Accelerator Science and Technology (FAST) facility, including initial experimental results from a benchmark controller.Comment: 21 p

Context-Specific Preference Learning of One Dimensional Quantitative Geospatial Attributes Using a Neuro-Fuzzy Approach

Change detection is a topic of great importance for modern geospatial information systems. Digital aerial imagery provides an excellent medium to capture geospatial information. Rapidly evolving environments, and the availability of increasing amounts of diverse, multiresolutional imagery bring forward the need for frequent updates of these datasets. Analysis and query of spatial data using potentially outdated data may yield results that are sometimes invalid. Due to measurement errors (systematic, random) and incomplete knowledge of information (uncertainty) it is ambiguous if a change in a spatial dataset has really occurred. Therefore we need to develop reliable, fast, and automated procedures that will effectively report, based on information from a new image, if a change has actually occurred or this change is simply the result of uncertainty. This thesis introduces a novel methodology for change detection in spatial objects using aerial digital imagery. The uncertainty of the extraction is used as a quality estimate in order to determine whether change has occurred. For this goal, we develop a fuzzy-logic system to estimate uncertainty values fiom the results of automated object extraction using active contour models (a.k.a. snakes). The differential snakes change detection algorithm is an extension of traditional snakes that incorporates previous information (i.e., shape of object and uncertainty of extraction) as energy functionals. This process is followed by a procedure in which we examine the improvement of the uncertainty at the absence of change (versioning). Also, we introduce a post-extraction method for improving the object extraction accuracy. In addition to linear objects, in this thesis we extend differential snakes to track deformations of areal objects (e.g., lake flooding, oil spills). From the polygonal description of a spatial object we can track its trajectory and areal changes. Differential snakes can also be used as the basis for similarity indices for areal objects. These indices are based on areal moments that are invariant under general affine transformation. Experimental results of the differential snakes change detection algorithm demonstrate their performance. More specifically, we show that the differential snakes minimize the false positives in change detection and track reliably object deformations

Dynamic non-linear system modelling using wavelet-based soft computing techniques

The enormous number of complex systems results in the necessity of high-level and cost-efficient modelling structures for the operators and system designers. Model-based approaches offer a very challenging way to integrate a priori knowledge into the procedure. Soft computing based models in particular, can successfully be applied in cases of highly nonlinear problems. A further reason for dealing with so called soft computational model based techniques is that in real-world cases, many times only partial, uncertain and/or inaccurate data is available. Wavelet-Based soft computing techniques are considered, as one of the latest trends in system identification/modelling. This thesis provides a comprehensive synopsis of the main wavelet-based approaches to model the non-linear dynamical systems in real world problems in conjunction with possible twists and novelties aiming for more accurate and less complex modelling structure. Initially, an on-line structure and parameter design has been considered in an adaptive Neuro- Fuzzy (NF) scheme. The problem of redundant membership functions and consequently fuzzy rules is circumvented by applying an adaptive structure. The growth of a special type of Fungus (Monascus ruber van Tieghem) is examined against several other approaches for further justification of the proposed methodology. By extending the line of research, two Morlet Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) structures have been introduced. Increasing the accuracy and decreasing the computational cost are both the primary targets of proposed novelties. Modifying the synoptic weights by replacing them with Linear Combination Weights (LCW) and also imposing a Hybrid Learning Algorithm (HLA) comprising of Gradient Descent (GD) and Recursive Least Square (RLS), are the tools utilised for the above challenges. These two models differ from the point of view of structure while they share the same HLA scheme. The second approach contains an additional Multiplication layer, plus its hidden layer contains several sub-WNNs for each input dimension. The practical superiority of these extensions is demonstrated by simulation and experimental results on real non-linear dynamic system; Listeria Monocytogenes survival curves in Ultra-High Temperature (UHT) whole milk, and consolidated with comprehensive comparison with other suggested schemes. At the next stage, the extended clustering-based fuzzy version of the proposed WNN schemes, is presented as the ultimate structure in this thesis. The proposed Fuzzy Wavelet Neural network (FWNN) benefitted from Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) clustering feature, updated by a modified Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. One of the main aims of this thesis is to illustrate how the GMM-EM scheme could be used not only for detecting useful knowledge from the data by building accurate regression, but also for the identification of complex systems. The structure of FWNN is based on the basis of fuzzy rules including wavelet functions in the consequent parts of rules. In order to improve the function approximation accuracy and general capability of the FWNN system, an efficient hybrid learning approach is used to adjust the parameters of dilation, translation, weights, and membership. Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is employed for wavelet parameters adjustment together with Weighted Least Square (WLS) which is dedicated for the Linear Combination Weights fine-tuning. The results of a real-world application of Short Time Load Forecasting (STLF) further re-enforced the plausibility of the above technique

Adaptive water demand forecasting for near real-time management of smart water distribution systems

This paper presents a novel methodology to perform adaptive Water Demand Forecasting (WDF) for up to 24h ahead with the aim to support near real-time operational management of smart Water Distribution Systems (WDSs). The novel WDF methodology is exclusively based on the analysis of water demand time series (i.e., demand signals) and makes use of Evolutionary Artificial Neural Networks (EANNs). It is implemented in a fully automated, data-driven and self-learning Demand Forecasting System (DFS) that is readily transferable to practice. The main characteristics of the DFS are: (a) continuous adaptability to ever changing water demand patterns and (b) generic and seamless applicability to different demand signals. The DFS enables applying two alternative WDF approaches. In the first approach, multiple EANN models are used in parallel to separately forecast demands for different hours of the day. In the second approach, a single EANN model with a fixed forecast horizon (i.e., 1h) is used in a recursive fashion to forecast demands. Both approaches have been tested and verified on a real-life WDS in the United Kingdom (UK). The results obtained illustrate that, regardless of the WDF approach used, the novel methodology allows accurate forecasts to be generated thereby demonstrating the potential to yield substantial improvements to the state-of-the-art in near real-time WDS management. The results obtained also demonstrate that the multiple-EANN-models approach slightly outperforms the single-EANN-model approach in terms of WDF accuracy. The single-EANN-model approach, however, still enables achieving good WDF performance and may be a preferred option in engineering practice as it is easier to setup/implement. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Counci

Analysis and modeling a distributed co-operative multi agent system for scaling-up business intelligence

Modeling A Distributed Co-Operative Multi Agent System in the area of Business Intelligence is the newer topic. During the work carried out a software Integrated Intelligent Advisory Model (IIAM) has been develop, which is a personal finance portfolio ma