Information inference for cyber-physical systems with application to aviation safety and space situational awareness

Due to the rapid advancement of technologies on sensors and processors, engineering systems have become more complex and highly automated to meet ever stringent performance and safety requirements. These systems are usually composed of physical plants (e.g., aircraft, spacecraft, ground vehicles, etc.) and cyber components (e.g., sensing, communication, and computing units), and thus called as Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs). For safe, efficient, and sustainable operation of a CPS, the states and physical characteristics of the system need to be effectively estimated or inferred from sensing data by proper information inference algorithms. However, due to the complex nature of the interacting multiple-heterogeneous elements of the CPS, the information inference of the CPS is a challenging task, where exiting methods designed for a single-element dynamic system (or for even dynamic systems with multiple-homogenous elements) could not be applicable. Moreover, the increasing number of sensor resources in CPSs makes the task even more challenging as meaningful information needs to be accurately and effectively inferred from huge amount of data, which is usually noise corrupted. Many aerospace systems such as air traffic control systems, pilot-automation integrated systems, networked unmanned aircraft systems, and space surveillance systems are good examples of CPSs and thus have the aforementioned challenging problems. The goals of this research are to 1) overcome the challenges in complex CPSs by developing new information inference methodologies based on control, estimation, hybrid systems and information theories, and 2) successfully apply them to various complex and safety-critical aerospace systems such as air transportation systems, space surveillance systems, and integrated human-machine systems, to promote their efficiency and safety

Information-rich Task Allocation and Motion Planning for Heterogeneous Sensor Platforms

This paper introduces a novel stratified planning algorithm for teams of heterogeneous mobile sensors that maximizes information collection while minimizing resource costs. The main contribution of this work is the scalable unification of effective algorithms for de- centralized informative motion planning and decentralized high-level task allocation. We present the Information-rich Rapidly-exploring Random Tree (IRRT) algorithm, which is amenable to very general and realistic mobile sensor constraint characterizations, as well as review the Consensus-Based Bundle Algorithm (CBBA), offering several enhancements to the existing algorithms to embed information collection at each phase of the planning process. The proposed framework is validated with simulation results for networks of mobile sensors performing multi-target localization missions.United States. Air Force. Office of Scientific Research (Grant FA9550-08-1-0086)United States. Air Force. Office of Scientific Research. Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (FA9550-08-1-0356

A Framework for Offline Risk-aware Planning of Low-altitude Aerial Flights during Urban Disaster Response

Disaster response missions are dynamic and dangerous events for first responders. Active situational awareness is critical for effective decision-making, and unmanned aerial assets have successfully extended the range and output of sensors. Aerial assets have demonstrated their capability in disaster response missions via decentralized operations. However, literature and industry lack a systematic investigation of the algorithms, datasets, and tools for aerial system trajectory planning in urban disasters that optimizes mission performance and guarantee mission success. This work seeks to develop a framework and software environment to investigate the requirements for offline planning algorithms and flight risk models when applied to aerial assets exploring urban disaster zones. This is addressed through the creation of rapid urban maps, efficient flight planning algorithms, and formal risk metrics that are demonstrated in scenario-driven experiments using Monte Carlo simulation. First, rapid urban mapping strategies are independently compared for efficient processing and storage through obstacle and terrain layers. Open-source data is used when available and is supplemented with an urban feature prediction model trained on satellite imagery using deep learning. Second, sampling-based planners are evaluated for efficient and effective trajectory planning of nonlinear aerial dynamic systems. The algorithm can find collision-free, kinodynamic feasible trajectories using random open-loop control targets. Alternative open-loop control commands are formed to improve the planning algorithm’s speed and convergence. Third, a risk-aware implementation of the planning algorithm is developed that considers the uncertainty of energy, collisions, and onboard viewpoint data and maps them to a single measure of the likelihood of mission failure. The three modules are combined in a framework where the rapid urban maps and risk-aware planner are evaluated against benchmarks for mission success, performance, and speed while creating a unique set of benchmarks from open-source data and software. One, the rapid urban map module generates a 3D structure and terrain map within 20 meters of data and in less than 5 minutes. The Gaussian Process terrain model performs better than B-spline and NURBS models in small-scale, mountainous environments at 10-meter squared resolution. Supplementary data for structures and other urban landcover features is predicted using the Pix2Pix Generative Adversarial Network with a 3-channel encoding for nine labels. Structures, greenspaces, water, and roads are predicted with high accuracy according to the F1, OIU, and pixel accuracy metrics. Two, the sampling-based planning algorithm is selected for forming collision-free, 3D offline flight paths with a black-box dynamics model of a quadcopter. Sampling-based planners prove successful for efficient and optimal flight paths through randomly generated and rapid urban maps, even under wind and noise uncertainty. The Stable-Sparse-RRT, SST, algorithm is shown to improve trajectories for minimum Euclidean distance more consistently and efficiently than the RRT algorithm, with a 50% improvement in finite-time path convergence for large-scale urban maps. The forward propagation dynamics of the black-box model are replaced with 5-15 times more computationally efficient motion primitives that are generated using an inverse lower-order dynamics model and the Differential Dynamic Programming, DDP, algorithm. Third, the risk-aware planning algorithm is developed that generates optimal paths based on three risk metrics of energy, collision, and viewpoint risk and quantifies the likelihood of worst-case events using the Conditional-Value-at-Risk, CVaR, metric. The sampling-based planning algorithm is improved with informative paths, and three versions of the algorithm are compared for the best performance in different scenarios. Energy risk in the planning algorithm results in 5-35% energy reduction and 20-30% more consistency in finite-time convergence for flight paths in large-scale urban maps. All three risk metrics in the planning algorithm generally result in more energy use than the planner with only energy risk, but reduce the mean flight path risk by 10-50% depending on the environment, energy available, and viewpoint landmarks. A final experiment in an Atlanta flooding scenario demonstrates the framework’s full capability with the rapid urban map displaying essential features and the trajectory planner reporting flight time, energy consumption, and total risk. Furthermore, the simulation environment provides insight into offline planning limitations through Monte Carlo simulations with environment wind and system dynamics noise. The framework and software environment are made available to use as benchmarks in the field to serve as a foundation for increasing the effectiveness of first responders’ safety in the challenging task of urban disaster response.Ph.D

Learning probabilistic interaction models

We live in a multi-modal world; therefore it comes as no surprise that the human brain is tailored for the integration of multi-sensory input. Inspired by the human brain, the multi-sensory data is used in Artificial Intelligence (AI) for teaching different concepts to computers. Autonomous Agents (AAs) are AI systems that sense and act autonomously in complex dynamic environments. Such agents can build up Self-Awareness (SA) by describing their experiences through multi-sensorial information with appropriate models and correlating them incrementally with the currently perceived situation to continuously expand their knowledge. This thesis proposes methods to learn such awareness models for AAs. These models include SA and situational awareness models in order to perceive and understand itself (self variables) and its surrounding environment (external variables) at the same time. An agent is considered self-aware when it can dynamically observe and understand itself and its surrounding through different proprioceptive and exteroceptive sensors which facilitate learning and maintaining a contextual representation by processing the observed multi-sensorial data. We proposed a probabilistic framework for generative and descriptive dynamic models that can lead to a computationally efficient SA system. In general, generative models facilitate the prediction of future states while descriptive models enable to select the representation that best fits the current observation. The proposed framework employs a Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) such as Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) that represent a set of variables and their conditional dependencies. Once we obtain this probabilistic representation, the latter allows the agent to model interactions between itself, as observed through proprioceptive sensors, and the environment, as observed through exteroceptive sensors. In order to develop an awareness system, not only an agent needs to recognize the normal states and perform predictions accordingly, but also it is necessary to detect the abnormal states with respect to its previously learned knowledge. Therefore, there is a need to measure anomalies or irregularities in an observed situation. In this case, the agent should be aware that an abnormality (i.e., a non-stationary condition) never experienced before, is currently present. Due to our specific way of representation, which makes it possible to model multi-sensorial data into a uniform interaction model, the proposed work not only improves predictions of future events but also can be potentially used to effectuate a transfer learning process where information related to the learned model can be moved and interpreted by another body

Robust distributed planning strategies for autonomous multi-agent teams

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2012.Cataloged from department-submitted PDF version of thesis. This electronic version was submitted and approved by the author's academic department as part of an electronic thesis pilot project. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.Includes bibliographical references (p. 225-244).The increased use of autonomous robotic agents, such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and ground rovers, for complex missions has motivated the development of autonomous task allocation and planning methods that ensure spatial and temporal coordination for teams of cooperating agents. The basic problem can be formulated as a combinatorial optimization (mixed-integer program) involving nonlinear and time-varying system dynamics. For most problems of interest, optimal solution methods are computationally intractable (NP-Hard), and centralized planning approaches, which usually require high bandwidth connections with a ground station (e.g. to transmit received sensor data, and to dispense agent plans), are resource intensive and react slowly to local changes in dynamic environments. Distributed approximate algorithms, where agents plan individually and coordinate with each other locally through consensus protocols, can alleviate many of these issues and have been successfully used to develop real-time conflict-free solutions for heterogeneous networked teams. An important issue associated with autonomous planning is that many of the algorithms rely on underlying system models and parameters which are often subject to uncertainty. This uncertainty can result from many sources including: inaccurate modeling due to simplifications, assumptions, and/or parameter errors; fundamentally nondeterministic processes (e.g. sensor readings, stochastic dynamics); and dynamic local information changes. As discrepancies between the planner models and the actual system dynamics increase, mission performance typically degrades. The impact of these discrepancies on the overall quality of the plan is usually hard to quantify in advance due to nonlinear effects, coupling between tasks and agents, and interdependencies between system constraints. However, if uncertainty models of planning parameters are available, they can be leveraged to create robust plans that explicitly hedge against the inherent uncertainty given allowable risk thresholds. This thesis presents real-time robust distributed planning strategies that can be used to plan for multi-agent networked teams operating in stochastic and dynamic environments. One class of distributed combinatorial planning algorithms involves using auction algorithms augmented with consensus protocols to allocate tasks amongst a team of agents while resolving conflicting assignments locally between the agents. A particular algorithm in this class is the Consensus-Based Bundle Algorithm (CBBA), a distributed auction protocol that guarantees conflict-free solutions despite inconsistencies in situational awareness across the team. CBBA runs in polynomial time, demonstrating good scalability with increasing numbers of agents and tasks. This thesis builds upon the CBBA framework to address many realistic considerations associated with planning for networked teams, including time-critical mission constraints, limited communication between agents, and stochastic operating environments. A particular focus of this work is a robust extension to CBBA that handles distributed planning in stochastic environments given probabilistic parameter models and different stochastic metrics. The Robust CBBA algorithm proposed in this thesis provides a distributed real-time framework which can leverage different stochastic metrics to hedge against parameter uncertainty. In mission scenarios where low probability of failure is required, a chance-constrained stochastic metric can be used to provide probabilistic guarantees on achievable mission performance given allowable risk thresholds. This thesis proposes a distributed chance-constrained approximation that can be used within the Robust CBBA framework, and derives constraints on individual risk allocations to guarantee equivalence between the centralized chance-constrained optimization and the distributed approximation. Different risk allocation strategies for homogeneous and heterogeneous teams are proposed that approximate the agent and mission score distributions a priori, and results are provided showing improved performance in time-critical mission scenarios given allowable risk thresholds.by Sameera S. Ponda.Ph.D

Architectures for embedded multimodal sensor data fusion systems in the robotics : and airport traffic suveillance ; domain

Smaller autonomous robots and embedded sensor data fusion systems often suffer from limited computational and hardware resources. Many ‘Real Time’ algorithms for multi modal sensor data fusion cannot be executed on such systems, at least not in real time and sometimes not at all, because of the computational and energy resources needed, resulting from the architecture of the computational hardware used in these systems. Alternative hardware architectures for generic tracking algorithms could provide a solution to overcome some of these limitations. For tracking and self localization sequential Bayesian filters, in particular particle filters, have been shown to be able to handle a range of tracking problems that could not be solved with other algorithms. But particle filters have some serious disadvantages when executed on serial computational architectures used in most systems. The potential increase in performance for particle filters is huge as many of the computational steps can be done concurrently. A generic hardware solution for particle filters can relieve the central processing unit from the computational load associated with the tracking task. The general topic of this research are hardware-software architectures for multi modal sensor data fusion in embedded systems in particular tracking, with the goal to develop a high performance computational architecture for embedded applications in robotics and airport traffic surveillance domain. The primary concern of the research is therefore: The integration of domain specific concept support into hardware architectures for low level multi modal sensor data fusion, in particular embedded systems for tracking with Bayesian filters; and a distributed hardware-software tracking systems for airport traffic surveillance and control systems. Runway Incursions are occurrences at an aerodrome involving the incorrect presence of an aircraft, vehicle, or person on the protected area of a surface designated for the landing and take-off of aircraft. The growing traffic volume kept runway incursions on the NTSB’s ‘Most Wanted’ list for safety improvements for over a decade. Recent incidents show that problem is still existent. Technological responses that have been deployed in significant numbers are ASDE-X and A-SMGCS. Although these technical responses are a significant improvement and reduce the frequency of runway incursions, some runway incursion scenarios are not optimally covered by these systems, detection of runway incursion events is not as fast as desired, and they are too expensive for all but the biggest airports. Local, short range sensors could be a solution to provide the necessary affordable surveillance accuracy for runway incursion prevention. In this context the following objectives shall be reached. 1) Show the feasibility of runway incursion prevention systems based on localized surveillance. 2) Develop a design for a local runway incursion alerting system. 3) Realize a prototype of the system design using the developed tracking hardware.Kleinere autonome Roboter und eingebettete Sensordatenfusionssysteme haben oft mit stark begrenzter Rechenkapazität und eingeschränkten Hardwareressourcen zu kämpfen. Viele Echtzeitalgorithmen für die Fusion von multimodalen Sensordaten können, bedingt durch den hohen Bedarf an Rechenkapazität und Energie, auf solchen Systemen überhaupt nicht ausgeführt werden, oder zu mindesten nicht in Echtzeit. Der hohe Bedarf an Energie und Rechenkapazität hat seine Ursache darin, dass die Architektur der ausführenden Hardware und der ausgeführte Algorithmus nicht aufeinander abgestimmt sind. Dies betrifft auch Algorithmen zu Spurverfolgung. Mit Hilfe von alternativen Hardwarearchitekturen für die generische Ausführung solcher Algorithmen könnten sich einige der typischerweise vorliegenden Einschränkungen überwinden lassen. Eine Reihe von Aufgaben, die sich mit anderen Spurverfolgungsalgorithmen nicht lösen lassen, lassen sich mit dem Teilchenfilter, einem Algorithmus aus der Familie der Bayesschen Filter lösen. Bei der Ausführung auf traditionellen Architekturen haben Teilchenfilter gegenüber anderen Algorithmen einen signifikanten Nachteil, allerdings ist hier ein großer Leistungszuwachs durch die nebenläufige Ausführung vieler Rechenschritte möglich. Eine generische Hardwarearchitektur für Teilchenfilter könnte deshalb die oben genannten Systeme stark entlasten. Das allgemeine Thema dieses Forschungsvorhabens sind Hardware-Software-Architekturen für die multimodale Sensordatenfusion auf eingebetteten Systemen - speziell für Aufgaben der Spurverfolgung, mit dem Ziel eine leistungsfähige Architektur für die Berechnung entsprechender Algorithmen auf eingebetteten Systemen zu entwickeln, die für Anwendungen in der Robotik und Verkehrsüberwachung auf Flughäfen geeignet ist. Das Augenmerk des Forschungsvorhabens liegt dabei auf der Integration von vom Einsatzgebiet abhängigen Konzepten in die Architektur von Systemen zur Spurverfolgung mit Bayeschen Filtern, sowie auf verteilten Hardware-Software Spurverfolgungssystemen zur Überwachung und Führung des Rollverkehrs auf Flughäfen. Eine „Runway Incursion“ (RI) ist ein Vorfall auf einem Flugplatz, bei dem ein Fahrzeug oder eine Person sich unerlaubt in einem Abschnitt der Start- bzw. Landebahn befindet, der einem Verkehrsteilnehmer zur Benutzung zugewiesen wurde. Der wachsende Flugverkehr hat dafür gesorgt, das RIs seit über einem Jahrzehnt auf der „Most Wanted“-Liste des NTSB für Verbesserungen der Sicherheit stehen. Jüngere Vorfälle zeigen, dass das Problem noch nicht behoben ist. Technologische Maßnahmen die in nennenswerter Zahl eingesetzt wurden sind das ASDE-X und das A-SMGCS. Obwohl diese Maßnahmen eine deutliche Verbesserung darstellen und die Zahl der RIs deutlich reduzieren, gibt es einige RISituationen die von diesen Systemen nicht optimal abgedeckt werden. Außerdem detektieren sie RIs ist nicht so schnell wie erwünscht und sind - außer für die größten Flughäfen - zu teuer. Lokale Sensoren mit kurzer Reichweite könnten eine Lösung sein um die für die zuverlässige Erkennung von RIs notwendige Präzision bei der Überwachung des Rollverkehrs zu erreichen. Vor diesem Hintergrund sollen die folgenden Ziele erreicht werden. 1) Die Machbarkeit eines Runway Incursion Vermeidungssystems, das auf lokalen Sensoren basiert, zeigen. 2) Einen umsetzbaren Entwurf für ein solches System entwickeln. 3) Einen Prototypen des Systems realisieren, das die oben gennannte Hardware zur Spurverfolgung einsetzt

Flight Safety Assessment and Management.

This dissertation develops a Flight Safety Assessment and Management (FSAM) system to mitigate aircraft loss of control risk. FSAM enables switching between the pilot/nominal autopilot system and a complex flight control system that can potentially recover from high risk situations but can be hard to certify. FSAM monitors flight conditions for high risk situations and selects the appropriate control authority to prevent or recover from loss of control. The pilot/nominal autopilot system is overridden only when necessary to avoid loss of control. FSAM development is pursued using two approaches. First, finite state machines are manually prescribed to manage control mode switching. Constructing finite state machines for FSAM requires careful consideration of possible exception events, but provides a computationally-tractable and verifiable means of realizing FSAM. The second approach poses FSAM as an uncertain reasoning based decision theoretic problem using Markov Decision Processes (MDP), offering a less tedious knowledge engineering process at the cost of computational overhead. Traditional and constrained MDP formulations are presented. Sparse sampling approaches are also explored to obtain suboptimal solutions to FSAM MDPs. MDPs for takeoff and icing-related loss of control events are developed and evaluated. Finally, this dissertation applies verification techniques to ensure that finite state machine or MDP policies satisfy system requirements. Counterexamples obtained from verification techniques aid in FSAM refinement. Real world aviation accidents are used as case studies to evaluate FSAM formulations. This thesis contributes decision making and verification frameworks to realize flight safety assessment and management capabilities. Novel flight envelopes and state abstractions are prescribed to aid decision making.PhDAerospace EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/133348/1/swee_1.pd

HARPS: An Online POMDP Framework for Human-Assisted Robotic Planning and Sensing

Autonomous robots can benefit greatly from human-provided semantic characterizations of uncertain task environments and states. However, the development of integrated strategies which let robots model, communicate, and act on such 'soft data' remains challenging. Here, the Human Assisted Robotic Planning and Sensing (HARPS) framework is presented for active semantic sensing and planning in human-robot teams to address these gaps by formally combining the benefits of online sampling-based POMDP policies, multimodal semantic interaction, and Bayesian data fusion. This approach lets humans opportunistically impose model structure and extend the range of semantic soft data in uncertain environments by sketching and labeling arbitrary landmarks across the environment. Dynamic updating of the environment model while during search allows robotic agents to actively query humans for novel and relevant semantic data, thereby improving beliefs of unknown environments and states for improved online planning. Simulations of a UAV-enabled target search application in a large-scale partially structured environment show significant improvements in time and belief state estimates required for interception versus conventional planning based solely on robotic sensing. Human subject studies in the same environment (n = 36) demonstrate an average doubling in dynamic target capture rate compared to the lone robot case, and highlight the robustness of active probabilistic reasoning and semantic sensing over a range of user characteristics and interaction modalities

3D-in-2D Displays for ATC.

This paper reports on the efforts and accomplishments of the 3D-in-2D Displays for ATC project at the end of Year 1. We describe the invention of 10 novel 3D/2D visualisations that were mostly implemented in the Augmented Reality ARToolkit. These prototype implementations of visualisation and interaction elements can be viewed on the accompanying video. We have identified six candidate design concepts which we will further research and develop. These designs correspond with the early feasibility studies stage of maturity as defined by the NASA Technology Readiness Level framework. We developed the Combination Display Framework from a review of the literature, and used it for analysing display designs in terms of display technique used and how they are combined. The insights we gained from this framework then guided our inventions and the human-centered innovation process we use to iteratively invent. Our designs are based on an understanding of user work practices. We also developed a simple ATC simulator that we used for rapid experimentation and evaluation of design ideas. We expect that if this project continues, the effort in Year 2 and 3 will be focus on maturing the concepts and employment in a operational laboratory settings

Cooperative Perception for Social Driving in Connected Vehicle Traffic

The development of autonomous vehicle technology has moved to the center of automotive research in recent decades. In the foreseeable future, road vehicles at all levels of automation and connectivity will be required to operate safely in a hybrid traffic where human operated vehicles (HOVs) and fully and semi-autonomous vehicles (AVs) coexist. Having an accurate and reliable perception of the road is an important requirement for achieving this objective. This dissertation addresses some of the associated challenges via developing a human-like social driver model and devising a decentralized cooperative perception framework. A human-like driver model can aid the development of AVs by building an understanding of interactions among human drivers and AVs in a hybrid traffic, therefore facilitating an efficient and safe integration. The presented social driver model categorizes and defines the driver\u27s psychological decision factors in mathematical representations (target force, object force, and lane force). A model predictive control (MPC) is then employed for the motion planning by evaluating the prevailing social forces and considering the kinematics of the controlled vehicle as well as other operating constraints to ensure a safe maneuver in a way that mimics the predictive nature of the human driver\u27s decision making process. A hierarchical model predictive control structure is also proposed, where an additional upper level controller aggregates the social forces over a longer prediction horizon upon the availability of an extended perception of the upcoming traffic via vehicular networking. Based on the prediction of the upper level controller, a sequence of reference lanes is passed to a lower level controller to track while avoiding local obstacles. This hierarchical scheme helps reduce unnecessary lane changes resulting in smoother maneuvers. The dynamic vehicular communication environment requires a robust framework that must consistently evaluate and exploit the set of communicated information for the purpose of improving the perception of a participating vehicle beyond the limitations. This dissertation presents a decentralized cooperative perception framework that considers uncertainties in traffic measurements and allows scalability (for various settings of traffic density, participation rate, etc.). The framework utilizes a Bhattacharyya distance filter (BDF) for data association and a fast covariance intersection fusion scheme (FCI) for the data fusion processes. The conservatism of the covariance intersection fusion scheme is investigated in comparison to the traditional Kalman filter (KF), and two different fusion architectures: sensor-to-sensor and sensor-to-system track fusion are evaluated. The performance of the overall proposed framework is demonstrated via Monte Carlo simulations with a set of empirical communications models and traffic microsimulations where each connected vehicle asynchronously broadcasts its local perception consisting of estimates of the motion states of self and neighboring vehicles along with the corresponding uncertainty measures of the estimates. The evaluated framework includes a vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication model that considers intermittent communications as well as a model that takes into account dynamic changes in an individual vehicle’s sensors’ FoV in accordance with the prevailing traffic conditions. The results show the presence of optimality in participation rate, where increasing participation rate beyond a certain level adversely affects the delay in packet delivery and the computational complexity in data association and fusion processes increase without a significant improvement in the achieved accuracy via the cooperative perception. In a highly dense traffic environment, the vehicular network can often be congested leading to limited bandwidth availability at high participation rates of the connected vehicles in the cooperative perception scheme. To alleviate the bandwidth utilization issues, an information-value discriminating networking scheme is proposed, where each sender broadcasts selectively chosen perception data based on the novelty-value of information. The potential benefits of these approaches include, but are not limited to, the reduction of bandwidth bottle-necking and the minimization of the computational cost of data association and fusion post processing of the shared perception data at receiving nodes. It is argued that the proposed information-value discriminating communication scheme can alleviate these adverse effects without sacrificing the fidelity of the perception