Liquidity and Asset Prices

We review the theories on how liquidity affects the required returns of capital assets and the empirical studies that test these theories. The theory predicts that both the level of liquidity and liquidity risk are priced, and empirical studies find the effects of liquidity on asset prices to be statistically significant and economically important, controlling for traditional risk measures and asset characteristics. Liquidity-based asset pricing empirically helps explain (1) the cross-section of stock returns, (2) how a reduction in stock liquidity result in a reduction in stock prices and an increase in expected stock returns, (3) the yield differential between on- and off-the-run Treasuries, (4) the yield spreads on corporate bonds, (5) the returns on hedge funds, (6) the valuation of closed-end funds, and (7) the low price of certain hard-to-trade securities relative to more liquid counterparts with identical cash flows, such as restricted stocks or illiquid derivatives. Liquidity can thus play a role in resolving a number of asset pricing puzzles such as the small-firm effect, the equity premium puzzle, and the risk-free rate puzzle.Liquidity; Liquidity Risk; Asset Prices

An empirical investigation of the factors that determine the pricing of Dutch index warrants

This paper investigates the pricing of Dutch index warrants. It is found that when using the historical standard deviation as an estimate for the volatility, the Black and Scholes model underprices all put warrants and call warrants on the FT-SE 100 and the CAC 40, while it overprices the warrants on the DAX. When the implied volatility of the previous day is used the model prices the index warrants fairly well. When the historical standard deviation is used the mispricing of the call and the put warrants depends in a strong way on the mispricing of the previous trading day, and on the moneyness (in a nonlinear way), the volatility and the dividend yield. When the implied standard deviation of the previous trading day is used the mispricing of the call warrants is only related to the moneyness and to the estimated volatility, while the mispricing of put index warrants depends in a strong way on the moneyness, the volatility, the dividend yield and the remaining time to maturity.Pricing;Financial Markets;finance

The 2011 European short sale ban on financial stocks: a cure or a curse? : [version 31 july 2013]

Did the August 2011 European short sale bans on financial stocks accomplish their goals? In order to answer this question, we use stock options’ implied volatility skews to proxy for investors’ risk aversion. We find that on ban announcement day, risk aversion levels rose for all stocks but more so for the banned financial stocks. The banned stocks’ volatility skews remained elevated during the ban but dropped for the other unbanned stocks. We show that it is the imposition of the ban itself that led to the increase in risk aversion rather than other causes such as information flow, options trading volumes, or stock specific factors. Substitution effects were minimal, as banned stocks’ put trading volumes and put-call ratios declined during the ban. We argue that although the ban succeeded in curbing further selling pressure on financial stocks by redirecting trading activity towards index options, this result came at the cost of increased risk aversion and some degree of market failure

Determinants of the implied volatility function on the Italian Stock Market.

This paper describes the implied volatility function computed from options on the Italian stock market index between 1995 and 1998 and tries to find out potential explanatory variables. We find that the typical smirk observed for S&P500 stock index characterizes also Mib30 stock index. When potential determinants are investigated by a linear Granger Causality test, the important role played by option's time to expiration, transacted volumes and historical volatility is detected. A possible proxy of portfolio insurance activity does poorly in explaining the observed pattern. Further analysis shows that the dynamic interrelation between the implied volatility function and some determinants could be, to a certain extent, non-linear.

On the efectiveness of several market integration measures: an empirical analysis

Many market integration measures are operationalized to compute their numerical values during a period characterized by the lack of stability ad market turmoil. The results of the tests give their degree of effectiveness, and reveal that the measures based on the principles of asset valuation, versus statistical measures, more clearly yield the level of integration of financial markets. Besides, cross market arbitrage-linked measures and equilibrium models-linked measures provide complementary information and reflect different properties, and consequently, both types of measures may be useful in practice

Option Investor Rationality Revisited

Do option investors rationally exercise their options? Numerous studies report evidence of irrational behavior. In this paper, we pay careful attention to intraday option quotes and reach the opposite conclusion. An exercise boundary violation (EBV) occurs when the best bid price for an American option is below the option’s intrinsic value. Far from being unusual, we show that EBVs occur very frequently. Under these conditions, the rational response of an investor liquidating an option is to exercise the option rather than sell it. Empirically, we find that the likelihood of early exercise is strongly influenced by the existence and duration of EBVs. Not only do these results reverse standard theory on American option valuation and optimal exercise strategy, but they also suggest that the ability to avoid selling at an EBV price creates an additional source of value for American options that is unrelated, and in addition to, dividend payments. This additional value may help explain why American options appear overpriced relative to European options

Exchange Traded Funds: History, Trading and Research

We survey the litterature devoted to Exchange Traded Fundsliterature review, Exchange Traded Funds

Non-Parametric Extraction of Implied Asset Price Distributions

Extracting the risk neutral density (RND) function from option prices is well defined in principle, but is very sensitive to errors in practice. For risk management, knowledge of the entire RND provides more information for Value-at-Risk (VaR) calculations than implied volatility alone [1]. Typically, RNDs are deduced from option prices by making a distributional assumption, or relying on implied volatility [2]. We present a fully non-parametric method for extracting RNDs from observed option prices. The aim is to obtain a continuous, smooth, monotonic, and convex pricing function that is twice differentiable. Thus, irregularities such as negative probabilities that afflict many existing RND estimation techniques are reduced. Our method employs neural networks to obtain a smoothed pricing function, and a central finite difference approximation to the second derivative to extract the required gradients. This novel technique was successfully applied to a large set of FTSE 100 daily European exercise (ESX) put options data and as an Ansatz to the corresponding set of American exercise (SEI) put options. The results of paired t-tests showed significant differences between RNDs extracted from ESX and SEI option data, reflecting the distorting impact of early exercise possibility for the latter. In particular, the results for skewness and kurtosis suggested different shapes for the RNDs implied by the two types of put options. However, both ESX and SEI data gave an unbiased estimate of the realised FTSE 100 closing prices on the options' expiration date. We confirmed that estimates of volatility from the RNDs of both types of option were biased estimates of the realised volatility at expiration, but less so than the LIFFE tabulated at-the-money implied volatility.Comment: Paper based on Application of Physics in Financial Analysis,APFA5, Conference Presentation, Torino, Italy. 11.5 Page