Bayesian networks for disease diagnosis: What are they, who has used them and how?

A Bayesian network (BN) is a probabilistic graph based on Bayes' theorem, used to show dependencies or cause-and-effect relationships between variables. They are widely applied in diagnostic processes since they allow the incorporation of medical knowledge to the model while expressing uncertainty in terms of probability. This systematic review presents the state of the art in the applications of BNs in medicine in general and in the diagnosis and prognosis of diseases in particular. Indexed articles from the last 40 years were included. The studies generally used the typical measures of diagnostic and prognostic accuracy: sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, precision, and the area under the ROC curve. Overall, we found that disease diagnosis and prognosis based on BNs can be successfully used to model complex medical problems that require reasoning under conditions of uncertainty.Comment: 22 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, Student PhD first pape

A Bayesian network decision model for supporting the diagnosis of dementia, Alzheimer׳s disease and mild cognitive impairment

AbstractPopulation aging has been occurring as a global phenomenon with heterogeneous consequences in both developed and developing countries. Neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer׳s Disease (AD), have high prevalence in the elderly population. Early diagnosis of this type of disease allows early treatment and improves patient quality of life. This paper proposes a Bayesian network decision model for supporting diagnosis of dementia, AD and Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). Bayesian networks are well-suited for representing uncertainty and causality, which are both present in clinical domains. The proposed Bayesian network was modeled using a combination of expert knowledge and data-oriented modeling. The network structure was built based on current diagnostic criteria and input from physicians who are experts in this domain. The network parameters were estimated using a supervised learning algorithm from a dataset of real clinical cases. The dataset contains data from patients and normal controls from the Duke University Medical Center (Washington, USA) and the Center for Alzheimer׳s Disease and Related Disorders (at the Institute of Psychiatry of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil). The dataset attributes consist of predisposal factors, neuropsychological test results, patient demographic data, symptoms and signs. The decision model was evaluated using quantitative methods and a sensitivity analysis. In conclusion, the proposed Bayesian network showed better results for diagnosis of dementia, AD and MCI when compared to most of the other well-known classifiers. Moreover, it provides additional useful information to physicians, such as the contribution of certain factors to diagnosis

Bayesian belief networks for dementia diagnosis and other applications: a comparison of hand-crafting and construction using a novel data driven technique

The Bayesian network (BN) formalism is a powerful representation for encoding domains characterised by uncertainty. However, before it can be used it must first be constructed, which is a major challenge for any real-life problem. There are two broad approaches, namely the hand-crafted approach, which relies on a human expert, and the data-driven approach, which relies on data. The former approach is useful, however issues such as human bias can introduce errors into the model. We have conducted a literature review of the expert-driven approach, and we have cherry-picked a number of common methods, and engineered a framework to assist non-BN experts with expert-driven construction of BNs. The latter construction approach uses algorithms to construct the model from a data set. However, construction from data is provably NP-hard. To solve this problem, approximate, heuristic algorithms have been proposed; in particular, algorithms that assume an order between the nodes, therefore reducing the search space. However, traditionally, this approach relies on an expert providing the order among the variables --- an expert may not always be available, or may be unable to provide the order. Nevertheless, if a good order is available, these order-based algorithms have demonstrated good performance. More recent approaches attempt to ``learn'' a good order then use the order-based algorithm to discover the structure. To eliminate the need for order information during construction, we propose a search in the entire space of Bayesian network structures --- we present a novel approach for carrying out this task, and we demonstrate its performance against existing algorithms that search in the entire space and the space of orders. Finally, we employ the hand-crafting framework to construct models for the task of diagnosis in a ``real-life'' medical domain, dementia diagnosis. We collect real dementia data from clinical practice, and we apply the data-driven algorithms developed to assess the concordance between the reference models developed by hand and the models derived from real clinical data

Progression Modeling of Cognitive Disease Using Temporal Data Mining: Research Landscape, Gaps and Solution Design

Dementia is a cognitive disorder whose diagnosis and progression monitoring is very difficult due to a very slow onset and progression. It is difficult to detect whether cognitive decline is due to ageing process or due to some form of dementia as MRI scans of the brain cannot reliably differentiate between ageing related volume loss and pathological changes. Laboratory tests on blood or CSF samples have also not proved very useful. Alzheimer�s disease (AD) is recognized as the most common cause of dementia. Development of sensitive and reliable tool for evaluation in terms of early diagnosis and progression monitoring of AD is required. Since there is an absence of specific markers for predicting AD progression, there is a need to learn more about specific attributes and their temporal relationships that lead to this disease and determine progression from mild cognitive impairment to full blown AD. Various stages of disease and transitions from one stage to the have be modelled based on longitudinal patient data. This paper provides a critical review of the methods to understand disease progression modelling and determine factors leading to progression of AD from initial to final stages. Then the design of a machine learning based solution is proposed to handle the gaps in current research

Data mining for the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes

Diabetes is the most common disease nowadays in all populations and in all age groups. diabetes contributing to heart disease, increases the risks of developing kidney disease, blindness, nerve damage, and blood vessel damage. Diabetes disease diagnosis via proper interpretation of the diabetes data is an important classification problem. Different techniques of artificial intelligence has been applied to diabetes problem. The purpose of this study is apply the artificial metaplasticity on multilayer perceptron (AMMLP) as a data mining (DM) technique for the diabetes disease diagnosis. The Pima Indians diabetes was used to test the proposed model AMMLP. The results obtained by AMMLP were compared with decision tree (DT), Bayesian classifier (BC) and other algorithms, recently proposed by other researchers, that were applied to the same database. The robustness of the algorithms are examined using classification accuracy, analysis of sensitivity and specificity, confusion matrix. The results obtained by AMMLP are superior to obtained by DT and BC

A REVIEW OF PROBABILISTIC GRAPH MODELS FOR FEATURE SELECTION WITH APPLICATIONS IN ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL TIME SERIES FORECASTING

In every field of life, people are interested to be able to forecast future.  A number of techniques are available to predict and forecasting upto a certain level of accuracy. Many techniques involve statistical tools and techniques for forecasting, modeling and control. Use of statistical techniques is growing with time and new techniques are being developed very rapidly. Especially in the field of economics and finance, the estimation and forecasting of economic and financial indicators play a vital role in decision making. Many models are developed in the last 2 decades to get better accuracy and efficiency in time series analysis and still there is a scope of learning and getting betterment in this field is available. In this research we have reviewed probability graphs, directed acyclic graphs, Bayesian networks, feature selection algorithms and Markov blankets for time series forecasting on the economic and financial problems (like stock exchange forecasting, multi-objective business risk analysis, consumers’ analysis, portfolio optimization, credit scoring etc). This is a new dimension for adaptive modeling techniques in economics and finance modeling

Benefits of a dance group intervention on institutionalized elder people: A Bayesian network approach

The present study aims to explore the effects of an adapted classical dance intervention on the psychological and functional status of institutionalized elder people using a Bayesian network. All participants were assessed at baseline and after the 9 weeks period of the intervention. Measures included balance and gait, psychological well-being, depression, and emotional distress. According to the Bayesian network obtained, the dance intervention increased the likelihood of presenting better psychological well-being, balance, and gait. Besides, it also decreased the probabilities of presenting emotional distress and depression. These findings demonstrate that dancing has functional and psychological benefits for institutionalized elder people. Moreover it highlights the importance of promoting serious leisure variety in the daily living of institutionalized elder adults

Disease diagnosis in smart healthcare: Innovation, technologies and applications

To promote sustainable development, the smart city implies a global vision that merges artificial intelligence, big data, decision making, information and communication technology (ICT), and the internet-of-things (IoT). The ageing issue is an aspect that researchers, companies and government should devote efforts in developing smart healthcare innovative technology and applications. In this paper, the topic of disease diagnosis in smart healthcare is reviewed. Typical emerging optimization algorithms and machine learning algorithms are summarized. Evolutionary optimization, stochastic optimization and combinatorial optimization are covered. Owning to the fact that there are plenty of applications in healthcare, four applications in the field of diseases diagnosis (which also list in the top 10 causes of global death in 2015), namely cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, Alzheimer’s disease and other forms of dementia, and tuberculosis, are considered. In addition, challenges in the deployment of disease diagnosis in healthcare have been discussed

Imaging biomarkers extraction and classification for Prion disease

Prion diseases are a group of rare neurodegenerative conditions characterised by a high rate of progression and highly heterogeneous phenotypes. Whilst the most common form of prion disease occurs sporadically (sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, sCJD), other forms are caused by inheritance of prion protein gene mutations or exposure to prions. To date, there are no accurate imaging biomarkers that can be used to predict the future diagnosis of a subject or to quantify the progression of symptoms over time. Besides, CJD is commonly mistaken for other forms of dementia. Due to the large heterogeneity of phenotypes of prion disease and the lack of a consistent spatial pattern of disease progression, the approaches used to study other types of neurodegenerative diseases are not satisfactory to capture the progression of the human form of prion disease. Using a tailored framework, I extracted quantitative imaging biomarkers for characterisation of patients with Prion diseases. Following the extraction of patient-specific imaging biomarkers from multiple images, I implemented a Gaussian Process approach to correlated symptoms with disease types and stages. The model was used on three different tasks: diagnosis, differential diagnosis and stratification, addressing an unmet need to automatically identify patients with or at risk of developing Prion disease. The work presented in this thesis has been extensively validated in a unique Prion disease cohort, comprising both the inherited and sporadic forms of the disease. The model has shown to be effective in the prediction of this illness. Furthermore, this approach may have used in other disorders with heterogeneous imaging features, being an added value for the understanding of neurodegenerative diseases. Lastly, given the rarity of this disease, I also addressed the issue of missing data and the limitations raised by it. Overall, this work presents progress towards modelling of Prion diseases and which computational methodologies are potentially suitable for its characterisation