Immediate Behavioral Response to the June 17, 2013 Flash Floods in Uttarakhand, North India

The 2013 Uttarakhand flash flood was such a surprise for those at risk that the predominant source of information for their risk was environmental cues and, secondarily, peer warnings rather than official warnings. Of those who received warnings, few received information other than the identity of the flood threat. A survey of 316 survivors found that most people\u27s first response was to immediately evacuate but some stayed to receive additional information, confirm their warnings, or engage in evacuation preparations. Unfortunately, engaging in these milling behaviors necessarily delayed their final evacuations. Mediation analysis revealed that psychological reactions mediated the relationship between information sources and behavioral responses. Further analyses revealed that immediate evacuation and evacuation delay were both predicted best by information search and positive affect, but correlation analyses indicated that a number of other models were also plausible. Final evacuation was best predicted by immediate evacuation and, to a significantly lesser extent, household together. Overall, results suggest that the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) should be considered a useful framework for examining household responses to flash floods in developing countries like India. It supports the conclusion that a household\u27s first warning source is a function of two distinct detection and dis- semination systems within a community—an official system and an informal system. However, it fails to capture what pre-impact emergency preparedness entails for rapid onset events in a developing country context. Further research is needed to determine the relative importance of situational and cultural characteristics in producing these observed differences

Evaluation of Key Components of Draft Guidelines for the National Weather Service TsunamiReadyTM Community Program

The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program partnered with the National Weather Service (NWS) in 2000 to create the TsunamiReadyTM (TR) Community program. TR is designed to help communities in coastal areas plan and prepare for tsunamis. To achieve TR recognition communities must meet certain criteria including specific emergency planning and management actions within the categories of mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. This study’s purpose was to evaluate the acceptability and usefulness of key components of a proposed revised set of TR Community program guidelines. Research was guided by the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) using Community Based Participatory Research methods to gather input from expert panels composed of local expert community stakeholders from 5 states and 1 US territory. Two qualitative data collection methods were used: online prediscussion surveys administered via Survey Monkey© and focus group discussions. Fifty participants attended 1 of 6 focus group discussions, with 20 participants completing surveys. Data analysis focused on 8 discussion topics: subdivision of communities by vulnerability, proportion of the population to be protected, evacuation effectiveness, evacuation drills or exercises, vertical evacuation, educating businesses, educating residents, and acceptability of a revised guidelines format. Supporting and opposing themes were identified, providing rich information of community-level perceptions regarding the guidelines. Most notably, the fidelity of the 2 ELM pathways were confirmed as separate. The peripheral pathway demonstrated a significant need for clarification and definition of program terms and activities through the surveys, while focus groups facilitated the central pathway for participants to discuss and debate various program guidelines. This study provides several recommendations based on community input for updating and revising the TR Community program guidelines including: revisions to the overall format, a new focus on community tsunami hazard, and additional actions and activities to improve community tsunami mitigation and preparedness efforts. Finally, the data and recommendations provided will be used to compile a final draft of the TR Community program guidelines for the NWS

Community understanding and preparedness for tsunami risk in the eastern North Island, New Zealand

The Indian Ocean tsunami on 26 December 2004 made many New Zealanders more aware of the devastating affects that a tsunami can have on coastal communities, and highlighted the need for people living in the coastal zone to be prepared for natural hazard events. The east coast of New Zealand is at high risk from both local and distantly generated tsunami, and Poverty Bay and Hawke Bay have been identified among the most at risk areas from tsunamis in the country. Three surveys were conducted between January and November 2006 to assess community understanding of, and preparedness for tsunami risk in the eastern North Island, New Zealand. These surveys were a camping ground visitor survey; a tourism sector preparedness survey; and the 2006 National Coastal Survey. Findings of all three surveys show that the general public does not appear to have sufficient knowledge of tsunami risk in their area. Also, there does not appear to be adequate information on tsunamis available to the public. Understanding of official tsunami warnings was high amongst residents surveyed in the 2006 National Coastal Survey. However, it was low amongst visitors surveyed in the camping grounds, with the majority of camping ground survey respondents indicating that they do not know what makes up the New Zealand public notification system. It is encouraging to find that overall the public are aware of the correct actions to take in the event of a tsunami warning being issued. Staff in hotels/motels in the Napier area were not well prepared for managing natural hazard events, with the majority of respondents having no training for dealing with emergencies, and none of those who had received training had received training for tsunami hazards. It is recommended that steps be taken to better educate and prepare the public and tourism managers in eastern North Island communities. This will require not only public education but a range of activities that engage, empower and motivate at-risk communities to respond effectively and appropriately to tsunami warnings

Managed retreat & relocation in relation to natural hazards in Switzerland

Due to the changing climate, inhabited areas are increasingly threatened by natural hazards. Worldwide, the focus lies mostly on sea level rise of coastal regions, whereas in Switzerland hazards such as rockfalls, debris flows, avalanches or floods can force people to relocate. Thereby, various difficulties arise for the affected community, such as social, financial, and legal aspects. Internationally but also in Switzerland, the decision making process on measures varies greatly and is typically conducted individually for each case concerned. Especially in Switzerland, relocation has not been implemented very often, and is usually considered as a last option. When making decisions regarding which protective measures to implement, aspects that have a more ideational but not directly measurable and monetizable value are often not taken into account. The aim of this thesis was, on the one hand, to provide an overview of the past relocations in relation to natural hazards in Switzerland. On the other hand, an integrated guideline for the processes related to the decision of the measure was developed. The aim of which was to ensure wide applicability, while still adapting to local settings. In this thesis, a comprehensive analysis of the situation in Switzerland concerning relocation was performed. Thereby, historical and current cases in which a relocation was evaluated or implemented, were investigated. Subsequently, the social, financial and legal, as well as hazard- and risk-related aspects impacting the needs, concerns, attitudes, and decisions of people affected by relocation, were elaborated. This was accomplished by means of literature review and non-participant observations. In completion, semi-structured interviews were conducted with three natural hazards and three insurance experts, as well as a municipality member and a resident of a municipality affected by natural hazards. These interviews acted as a foundation for an Evaluation & Decision Framework, which allows for a structured, integrative and yet individual approach to decision making on managed retreat. New insights could be gained from these methods. Even if discussed in some localities, relocation due to natural hazards has not been implemented very often in Switzerland compared to other countries. Here, it is usually considered as a last resort. The ideational and not easily measurable and monetizable aspects can vary from case to case. Nevertheless, their consideration has a great influence on the success of a project. The framework developed from these findings enables decision makers to consider relocation as an equal value in the process of deciding on measures, to be able to include non-materialistic values such as social or environmental factors, and to be able to adapt these locally. This thesis shows that sustainable decisions on a sensitive issue such as managed retreat can be facilitated and disentangled with the help of an integrative but individually adaptable framework. Further research in this area could address the spatial fragmentation of legal approaches and insurance coverages. Greater clarity in this area could reduce complexity and lead to increased equality

Handbook of Tsunami Evacuation Planning - SCHEMA (Scenarios for Hazard-induced Emergencies Management), Project n° 030963, Specific Targeted Research Project, Space Priority

This handbook is dedicated to provide thorough and hands-on information in order to produce fully-comprehensive methodology of tsunami evacuation plan generation. Hence community-employed decision makers or similar stakeholders are supplied with a detailed guideline to implement a fully-fledged evacuation plan within three stages : set-up of valid first instance of evacuation plan, mid-term revision, and long-term revision and integration. Local tsunami risk assessment and all subsequent implications on evacuation planning are based on (1) knowing the to-be-expected tsunami wave height, and (2) the to-be-expected arrival time of the first devastating tsunami wave. The first parameter helps to calculate the area at risk ; the second parameter gives an indication of how fast the evacuation has to take place. Consequently, the evacuation plan instance must guarantee that a certain number of affected persons has to be brought onto safe areas within a given time limit. Safe areas (shelters) are higher located places, either on natural ground, or on artificially built-up constructions including building higher than three stores. Evacuation has to take place on a given network of suitable roads or paths. In this context, if necessary, the methodology foresees also the inclusion of additionally to be built escape routes and/or safe places in order to produce a fully working evacuation plan that fulfills the basic requirements. The methodology also explains how to implement a valid instance of evacuation plan by marking the identified escape routes and shelters in reality, and how to disseminate all information to the affected population. Within a mid-term review the evacuation plan has to be maintained constantly and appropriate authority-own measures have to be guaranteed. The long-term review, finally, keeps track of all other information needed to run the evacuation plan properly : integration with early-warning systems, integration with other emergency plans, checking of legal obligations. In addition, the whole evacuation plan must be reviewed together with the affected population and a maximum of acceptance be obtained. In this contaxt, and if necessary, adaptations should be made in order to guarantee the well-functioning of the whole plan within its best performance.JRC.DG.G.7-Traceability and vulnerability assessmen

Humboldt County Operational Area Hazard Mitigation Plan 2019 – Volume 1 Area-Wide Elements – Public Review Draft

Humboldt County prepared a hazard mitigation plan in compliance with the DMA in 2007. Cities and special purpose districts with jurisdiction inside the county participated as planning partners in the plan. That initial plan identified resources, information, and strategies for reducing risk from natural hazards. It called for ongoing updates and was last updated in 2014. This Humboldt County Operational Area Hazard Mitigation Plan 2019 fulfills the ongoing update requirement

Managing tsunamis through early warning systems : a multidisciplinary approach

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2010. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ocean & Coastal Management 54 (2011): 189-199, doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2010.10.025.This study attempts to identify the key factors that will make a tsunami warning system most effective, to develop a framework in which results of natural science and engineering research can be effectively integrated into coastal natural hazard planning, and to develop a numerical example that illustrates how benefit-cost analysis may be used to assess early warning systems. Results of the study suggest that while the science of tsunami wave propagation and inundation is relatively advanced, our knowledge on the relationships between tsunami generation and undersea earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and landslides remains poor, resulting in significant uncertainties in tsunami forecasting. Probabilities of damaging tsunamis for many coastal regions are still unknown, making tsunami risk assessment and management difficult. Thus it is essential to develop new techniques to identify paleo-tsunami events and to compile and develop size and frequency information on historical tsunamis for different locations. An effective tsunami early warning system must include not only the ocean technologies for accurately detecting an emerging tsunami, but also a civil communication system through which the population can be timely warned by the local government and other sources. Since minimizing the evacuation time is a key factor to make a warning system effective, adequate pre-event education and preparation of the population must be a critical component of the system. Results of a numerical example of the South Pacific region suggest that investments in a tsunami warning system in the region may lead to significant economic benefits.The study was supported by the Elisabeth and Henry Morss, Jr. Colloquia Fund, the Deep Ocean Exploration Institute, the Coastal Ocean Institute, and the Wheeler Award for Ocean Science and Society of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI)

Evaluating last-mile hazard information dissemination : a research proposal

This is a comprehensive and detailed report regarding implementation of a first-responders ICT strategy for emergency communication and disaster management in Sri Lanka. The project showed that ICTs can be incorporated into communities and form a critical infrastructure. However, from a technical perspective all ICTs used in the hazard information dissemination system (HazInfo Pilot) need upgrading to receive Complete Full-CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) messages before their use in the Last-Mile Communities of Sri Lanka. Sri Lankan society is not used to working according to plans, nor adhering to concepts of deadlines. Disastrous weather events and ongoing civil conflicts are impediments to pilot project planning

Estimating Life Loss for Dam Safety Risk Assessment

Estimating Life Loss for Dam Safety Risk Assessment explores the need for a new life-loss model in dam safety risk assessment, historical foundations on which that model can be built, and issues that are critical for a successful life-loss model to address. After critiquing existing life-loss models, the work presents a summary of historical insights that were derived by characterizing flood events on the level of subpopulations at risk, using nearly l 00 carefully defined variables. Building upon both conceptual and historical insights, the work culminates by presenting the conceptual basis for a new life-loss model that remains under development. Chapter I introduces the topic of dam safety risk assessment and the central role that life-loss estimation plays in that field. Chapter II discusses important preliminary considerations in model development. Chapter Ill provides a detailed review of previous life-loss models that pertained to floods, including a critique of each. Chapter IV explores the DeKay-McClelland model in detail and raises serious concerns regarding its future use. Chapter V defines nearly l 00 variables and their respective categories for use in characterizing flood events. Chapter VI provides a detailed outline of historical insights that relate to flood events in one of 18 logical categories. Chapter VII proposes the framework for a new conceptual life-loss model-a model that is still under development and has yet to be refined or offered for testing-with sufficient details to indicate how it was developed and how it might be used. Chapter VIII provides a summary, conclusions, and recommendations for future research. Appendices A through D provide material related to over 900 pages of unpublished working documents developed while characterizing 38 flood events and nearly 200 subpopulations at risk. Appendix E offers a summary of existing software that, given additional development, might prove useful to life-loss estimation in dam safety risk assessment