132,259 research outputs found
A unified framework for Schelling's model of segregation
Schelling's model of segregation is one of the first and most influential
models in the field of social simulation. There are many variations of the
model which have been proposed and simulated over the last forty years, though
the present state of the literature on the subject is somewhat fragmented and
lacking comprehensive analytical treatments. In this article a unified
mathematical framework for Schelling's model and its many variants is
developed. This methodology is useful in two regards: firstly, it provides a
tool with which to understand the differences observed between models;
secondly, phenomena which appear in several model variations may be understood
in more depth through analytic studies of simpler versions.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figure
Practical guidelines for modelling post-entry spread in invasion ecology
In this article we review a variety of methods to enable understanding and modelling the spread of a pest or pathogen post-entry. Building upon our experience of multidisciplinary research in this area, we propose practical guidelines and a framework for model development, to help with the application of mathematical modelling in the field of invasion ecology for post-entry spread. We evaluate the pros and cons of a range of methods, including references to examples of the methods in practice. We also show how issues of data deficiency and uncertainty can be addressed. The aim is to provide guidance to the reader on the most suitable elements to include in a model of post-entry dispersal in a risk assessment, under differing circumstances. We identify both the strengths and weaknesses of different methods and their application as part of a holistic, multidisciplinary approach to biosecurity research
Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change
Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California\u27s Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios
Report from the Tri-Agency Cosmological Simulation Task Force
The Tri-Agency Cosmological Simulations (TACS) Task Force was formed when
Program Managers from the Department of Energy (DOE), the National Aeronautics
and Space Administration (NASA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF)
expressed an interest in receiving input into the cosmological simulations
landscape related to the upcoming DOE/NSF Vera Rubin Observatory (Rubin),
NASA/ESA's Euclid, and NASA's Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST).
The Co-Chairs of TACS, Katrin Heitmann and Alina Kiessling, invited community
scientists from the USA and Europe who are each subject matter experts and are
also members of one or more of the surveys to contribute. The following report
represents the input from TACS that was delivered to the Agencies in December
2018.Comment: 36 pages, 3 figures. Delivered to NASA, NSF, and DOE in Dec 201
Gene expression for simulation of biological tissue
BioDynaMo is a biological processes simulator developed by an international
community of researchers and software engineers working closely with
neuroscientists. The authors have been working on gene expression, i.e. the
process by which the heritable information in a gene - the sequence of DNA base
pairs - is made into a functional gene product, such as protein or RNA.
Typically, gene regulatory models employ either statistical or analytical
approaches, being the former already well understood and broadly used. In this
paper, we utilize analytical approaches representing the regulatory networks by
means of differential equations, such as Euler and Runge-Kutta methods. The two
solutions are implemented and have been submitted for inclusion in the
BioDynaMo project and are compared for accuracy and performance
Principles and Concepts of Agent-Based Modelling for Developing Geospatial Simulations
The aim of this paper is to outline fundamental concepts and principles of the Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigm, with particular reference to the development of geospatial simulations. The paper begins with a brief definition of modelling, followed by a classification of model types, and a comment regarding a shift (in certain circumstances) towards modelling systems at the individual-level. In particular, automata approaches (e.g. Cellular Automata, CA, and ABM) have been particularly popular, with ABM moving to the fore. A definition of agents and agent-based models is given; identifying their advantages and disadvantages, especially in relation to geospatial modelling. The potential use of agent-based models is discussed, and how-to instructions for developing an agent-based model are provided. Types of simulation / modelling systems available for ABM are defined, supplemented with criteria to consider before choosing a particular system for a modelling endeavour. Information pertaining to a selection of simulation / modelling systems (Swarm, MASON, Repast, StarLogo, NetLogo, OBEUS, AgentSheets and AnyLogic) is provided, categorised by their licensing policy (open source, shareware / freeware and proprietary systems). The evaluation (i.e. verification, calibration, validation and analysis) of agent-based models and their output is examined, and noteworthy applications are discussed.Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are a particularly useful medium for representing model input and output of a geospatial nature. However, GIS are not well suited to dynamic modelling (e.g. ABM). In particular, problems of representing time and change within GIS are highlighted. Consequently, this paper explores the opportunity of linking (through coupling or integration / embedding) a GIS with a simulation / modelling system purposely built, and therefore better suited to supporting the requirements of ABM. This paper concludes with a synthesis of the discussion that has proceeded. The aim of this paper is to outline fundamental concepts and principles of the Agent-Based Modelling (ABM) paradigm, with particular reference to the development of geospatial simulations. The paper begins with a brief definition of modelling, followed by a classification of model types, and a comment regarding a shift (in certain circumstances) towards modelling systems at the individual-level. In particular, automata approaches (e.g. Cellular Automata, CA, and ABM) have been particularly popular, with ABM moving to the fore. A definition of agents and agent-based models is given; identifying their advantages and disadvantages, especially in relation to geospatial modelling. The potential use of agent-based models is discussed, and how-to instructions for developing an agent-based model are provided. Types of simulation / modelling systems available for ABM are defined, supplemented with criteria to consider before choosing a particular system for a modelling endeavour. Information pertaining to a selection of simulation / modelling systems (Swarm, MASON, Repast, StarLogo, NetLogo, OBEUS, AgentSheets and AnyLogic) is provided, categorised by their licensing policy (open source, shareware / freeware and proprietary systems). The evaluation (i.e. verification, calibration, validation and analysis) of agent-based models and their output is examined, and noteworthy applications are discussed.Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are a particularly useful medium for representing model input and output of a geospatial nature. However, GIS are not well suited to dynamic modelling (e.g. ABM). In particular, problems of representing time and change within GIS are highlighted. Consequently, this paper explores the opportunity of linking (through coupling or integration / embedding) a GIS with a simulation / modelling system purposely built, and therefore better suited to supporting the requirements of ABM. This paper concludes with a synthesis of the discussion that has proceeded
Actions speak louder than words: designing transdisciplinary approaches to enact solutions
Sustainability science uses a transdisciplinary research process in which academic and non-academic partners collaborate to identify a common problem and co-produce knowledge to develop more sustainable solutions. Sustainability scientists have advanced the theory and practice of facilitating collaborative efforts such that the knowledge created is usable. There has been less emphasis, however, on the last step of the transdisciplinary process: enacting solutions. We analyzed a case study of a transdisciplinary research effort in which co-produced policy simulation information shaped the creation of a new policy mechanism. More specifically, by studying the development of a mechanism for conserving vernal pool ecosystems, we found that four factors helped overcome common challenges to acting upon new information: creating a culture of learning, co-producing policy simulations that acted as boundary objects, integrating research into solution development, and employing an adaptive management approach. With an increased focus on these four factors that enable action, we can better develop the same level of nuanced theoretical concepts currently characterizing the earlier phases of transdisciplinary research, and the practical advice for deliberately designing these efforts
- …