Vibration Monitoring: Gearbox identification and faults detection

L'abstract è presente nell'allegato / the abstract is in the attachmen

Multi-sensor multi-rate fusion estimation for networked systems: Advances and perspectives

National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 62103095, 61873058, 61873148 and 61933007; AHPU Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program of China under Grant 2018BJRC009; Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province of China under Grant 2108085MA07; Royal Society of the UK; Alexander von Humboldt Foundation of Germany

Events Recognition System for Water Treatment Works

The supply of drinking water in sufficient quantity and required quality is a challenging task for water companies. Tackling this task successfully depends largely on ensuring a continuous high quality level of water treatment at Water Treatment Works (WTW). Therefore, processes at WTWs are highly automated and controlled. A reliable and rapid detection of faulty sensor data and failure events at WTWs processes is of prime importance for its efficient and effective operation. Therefore, the vast majority of WTWs operated in the UK make use of event detection systems that automatically generate alarms after the detection of abnormal behaviour on observed signals to ensure an early detection of WTW’s process failures. Event detection systems usually deployed at WTWs apply thresholds to the monitored signals for the recognition of WTW’s faulty processes. The research work described in this thesis investigates new methods for near real-time event detection at WTWs by the implementation of statistical process control and machine learning techniques applied for an automated near real-time recognition of failure events at WTWs processes. The resulting novel Hybrid CUSUM Event Recognition System (HC-ERS) makes use of new online sensor data validation and pre-processing techniques and utilises two distinct detection methodologies: first for fault detection on individual signals and second for the recognition of faulty processes and events at WTWs. The fault detection methodology automatically detects abnormal behaviour of observed water quality parameters in near real-time using the data of the corresponding sensors that is online validated and pre-processed. The methodology utilises CUSUM control charts to predict the presence of faults by tracking the variation of each signal individually to identify abnormal shifts in its mean. The basic CUSUM methodology was refined by investigating optimised interdependent parameters for each signal individually. The combined predictions of CUSUM fault detection on individual signals serves the basis for application of the second event detection methodology. The second event detection methodology automatically identifies faults at WTW’s processes respectively failure events at WTWs in near real-time, utilising the faults detected by CUSUM fault detection on individual signals beforehand. The method applies Random Forest classifiers to predict the presence of an event at WTW’s processes. All methods have been developed to be generic and generalising well across different drinking water treatment processes at WTWs. HC-ERS has proved to be effective in the detection of failure events at WTWs demonstrated by the application on real data of water quality signals with historical events from a UK’s WTWs. The methodology achieved a peak F1 value of 0.84 and generates 0.3 false alarms per week. These results demonstrate the ability of method to automatically and reliably detect failure events at WTW’s processes in near real-time and also show promise for practical application of the HC-ERS in industry. The combination of both methodologies presents a unique contribution to the field of near real-time event detection at WTW

Automated On-line Fault Prognosis for Wind Turbine Monitoring using SCADA data

Current wind turbine (WT) studies focus on improving their reliability and reducing the cost of energy, particularly when WTs are operated offshore. A Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system is a standard installation on larger WTs, monitoring all major WT sub-assemblies and providing important information. Ideally, a WT’s health condition or state of the components can be deduced through rigorous analysis of SCADA data. Several programmes have been made for that purpose; however, the resulting cost savings are limited because of the data complexity and relatively low number of failures that can be easily detected in early stages. This thesis develops an automated on-line fault prognosis system for WT monitoring using SCADA data, concentrating particularly on WT pitch system, which is known to be fault significant. A number of preliminary activities were carried out in this research. They included building a dedicated server, developing a data visualisation tool, reviewing the existing WT monitoring techniques and investigating the possible AI techniques along with some examples detailing applications of how they can be utilised in this research. The a-priori knowledge-based Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (APK-ANFIS) was selected to research in further because it has been shown to be interpretable and allows domain knowledge to be incorporated. A fault prognosis system using APK-ANFIS based on four critical WT pitch system features is proposed. The proposed approach has been applied to the pitch data of two different designs of 26 Alstom and 22 Mitsubishi WTs, with two different types of SCADA system, demonstrating the adaptability of APK-ANFIS for application to variety of technologies. After that, the Alstom results were compared to a prior general alarm approach to show the advantage of prognostic horizon. In addition, both results are evaluated using Confusion Matrix analysis and a comparison study of the two tests to draw conclusions, demonstrating that the proposed approach is effective

Exploiting Robust Multivariate Statistics and Data Driven Techniques for Prognosis and Health Management

This thesis explores state of the art robust multivariate statistical methods and data driven techniques to holistically perform prognostics and health management (PHM). This provides a means to enable the early detection, diagnosis and prognosis of future asset failures. In this thesis, the developed PHM methodology is applied to wind turbine drive train components, specifically focussed on planetary gearbox bearings and gears. A novel methodology for the identification of relevant time-domain statistical features based upon robust statistical process control charts is presented for high frequency bearing accelerometer data. In total, 28 time-domain statistical features were evaluated for their capabilities as leading indicators of degradation. The results of this analysis describe the extensible multivariate “Moments’ model” for the encapsulation of bearing operational behaviour. This is presented, enabling the early degradation of detection, predictive diagnostics and estimation of remaining useful life (RUL). Following this, an extended physics of failure model based upon low frequency SCADA data for the quantification of wind turbine gearbox condition is described. This extends the state of the art, whilst defining robust performance charts for quantifying component condition. Normalisation against loading of the turbine and transient states based upon empirical data is performed in the bivariate domain, with extensibility into the multivariate domain if necessary. Prognosis of asset condition is found to be possible with the assistance of artificial neural networks in order to provide business intelligence to the planning and scheduling of effective maintenance actions. These multivariate condition models are explored with multivariate distance and similarity metrics for to exploit traditional data mining techniques for tacit knowledge extraction, ensemble diagnosis and prognosis. Estimation of bearing remaining useful life is found to be possible, with the derived technique correlating strongly to bearing life (r = .96

Machine learning for the sustainable energy transition: a data-driven perspective along the value chain from manufacturing to energy conversion

According to the special report Global Warming of 1.5 °C of the IPCC, climate action is not only necessary but more than ever urgent. The world is witnessing rising sea levels, heat waves, events of flooding, droughts, and desertification resulting in the loss of lives and damage to livelihoods, especially in countries of the Global South. To mitigate climate change and commit to the Paris agreement, it is of the uttermost importance to reduce greenhouse gas emissions coming from the most emitting sector, namely the energy sector. To this end, large-scale penetration of renewable energy systems into the energy market is crucial for the energy transition toward a sustainable future by replacing fossil fuels and improving access to energy with socio-economic benefits. With the advent of Industry 4.0, Internet of Things technologies have been increasingly applied to the energy sector introducing the concept of smart grid or, more in general, Internet of Energy. These paradigms are steering the energy sector towards more efficient, reliable, flexible, resilient, safe, and sustainable solutions with huge environmental and social potential benefits. To realize these concepts, new information technologies are required, and among the most promising possibilities are Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning which in many countries have already revolutionized the energy industry. This thesis presents different Machine Learning algorithms and methods for the implementation of new strategies to make renewable energy systems more efficient and reliable. It presents various learning algorithms, highlighting their advantages and limits, and evaluating their application for different tasks in the energy context. In addition, different techniques are presented for the preprocessing and cleaning of time series, nowadays collected by sensor networks mounted on every renewable energy system. With the possibility to install large numbers of sensors that collect vast amounts of time series, it is vital to detect and remove irrelevant, redundant, or noisy features, and alleviate the curse of dimensionality, thus improving the interpretability of predictive models, speeding up their learning process, and enhancing their generalization properties. Therefore, this thesis discussed the importance of dimensionality reduction in sensor networks mounted on renewable energy systems and, to this end, presents two novel unsupervised algorithms. The first approach maps time series in the network domain through visibility graphs and uses a community detection algorithm to identify clusters of similar time series and select representative parameters. This method can group both homogeneous and heterogeneous physical parameters, even when related to different functional areas of a system. The second approach proposes the Combined Predictive Power Score, a method for feature selection with a multivariate formulation that explores multiple sub-sets of expanding variables and identifies the combination of features with the highest predictive power over specified target variables. This method proposes a selection algorithm for the optimal combination of variables that converges to the smallest set of predictors with the highest predictive power. Once the combination of variables is identified, the most relevant parameters in a sensor network can be selected to perform dimensionality reduction. Data-driven methods open the possibility to support strategic decision-making, resulting in a reduction of Operation & Maintenance costs, machine faults, repair stops, and spare parts inventory size. Therefore, this thesis presents two approaches in the context of predictive maintenance to improve the lifetime and efficiency of the equipment, based on anomaly detection algorithms. The first approach proposes an anomaly detection model based on Principal Component Analysis that is robust to false alarms, can isolate anomalous conditions, and can anticipate equipment failures. The second approach has at its core a neural architecture, namely a Graph Convolutional Autoencoder, which models the sensor network as a dynamical functional graph by simultaneously considering the information content of individual sensor measurements (graph node features) and the nonlinear correlations existing between all pairs of sensors (graph edges). The proposed neural architecture can capture hidden anomalies even when the turbine continues to deliver the power requested by the grid and can anticipate equipment failures. Since the model is unsupervised and completely data-driven, this approach can be applied to any wind turbine equipped with a SCADA system. When it comes to renewable energies, the unschedulable uncertainty due to their intermittent nature represents an obstacle to the reliability and stability of energy grids, especially when dealing with large-scale integration. Nevertheless, these challenges can be alleviated if the natural sources or the power output of renewable energy systems can be forecasted accurately, allowing power system operators to plan optimal power management strategies to balance the dispatch between intermittent power generations and the load demand. To this end, this thesis proposes a multi-modal spatio-temporal neural network for multi-horizon wind power forecasting. In particular, the model combines high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction forecast maps with turbine-level SCADA data and explores how meteorological variables on different spatial scales together with the turbines' internal operating conditions impact wind power forecasts. The world is undergoing a third energy transition with the main goal to tackle global climate change through decarbonization of the energy supply and consumption patterns. This is not only possible thanks to global cooperation and agreements between parties, power generation systems advancements, and Internet of Things and Artificial Intelligence technologies but also necessary to prevent the severe and irreversible consequences of climate change that are threatening life on the planet as we know it. This thesis is intended as a reference for researchers that want to contribute to the sustainable energy transition and are approaching the field of Artificial Intelligence in the context of renewable energy systems

Prognostics and health management for multi-component systems

The ever increasing number of manufacturing requirements is pushing original equipment manufacturers (OEM) to design more complex systems to meet industrial needs. These systems are being fitted with more components which bear stochastic and economic dependencies. Therefore maintaining such systems is becoming more and more of a challenge, especially due to their degradation processes becoming highly stochastic in nature. This thesis is concerned with the prognostics and health management (PHM) of such complex multi-component systems, whereby signal processing and health indicator extraction, diagnostics, prognostics and maintenance decision making in light of present stochastic and economic dependencies are considered. We introduce several novel approaches for dealing with systems that have multiple components. We first introduce a gearbox accelerated life testing platform that was designed with the objective of gathering experimental data for multi-component degradation models, for the reason that multi-component systems with inter-dependencies follow a highly stochastic degradation process which depends to an extent on their complex mechanical design. We then present our methodology for extracting accurate health indicators from multi-component systems by means of a time-frequency domain analysis. This sets the stage for degradation modelling, and so we show the development of a generic degradation model in which the degradation process of a component may be dependent on the operating conditions, the component's own state, and the state of the other components. We then show how to fit the models to data using particle filter. This method is then used for the data generated by the gearbox. Afterwards a diagnostic procedure is presented and uses Gaussian mixture models. This is used to uncover accelerated wear processes that take place when old worn out components are coupled with new healthy components. Finally economic dependency is considered where combining multiple maintenance activities has lower cost than performing maintenance on components separately. To select a component or components to be preventively maintained, adaptive preventive maintenance and opportunistic maintenance rules are proposed. A cost model is developed to find the optimal values of decision variables. In our work, we find that stochastic dependencies between components lead to accelerated degradation which causes unexpected faults and failures, and consequent economic losses. Although this work deals with stochastic dependence between components, it involves some engineering knowledge of the systems under study, and this makes application of the models on a large scale challenging to automate. Therefore, we make recommendation for future research that includes the development of end-to-end learning techniques such as deep learning. In doing so we can potentially use the time wave data and automatically extract the most relevant features for doing accurate prognostics, and therefore health management, of such systems. The research work in this thesis was motivated by the problems faced by industrial partners such as the world leading food system manufacturing company Marel in the Netherlands, which were part of the sustainable manufacturing and advanced robotics training network in Europe (SMART-e)