Multi-Layer Cyber-Physical Security and Resilience for Smart Grid

The smart grid is a large-scale complex system that integrates communication technologies with the physical layer operation of the energy systems. Security and resilience mechanisms by design are important to provide guarantee operations for the system. This chapter provides a layered perspective of the smart grid security and discusses game and decision theory as a tool to model the interactions among system components and the interaction between attackers and the system. We discuss game-theoretic applications and challenges in the design of cross-layer robust and resilient controller, secure network routing protocol at the data communication and networking layers, and the challenges of the information security at the management layer of the grid. The chapter will discuss the future directions of using game-theoretic tools in addressing multi-layer security issues in the smart grid.Comment: 16 page

Managing Price Uncertainty in Prosumer-Centric Energy Trading: A Prospect-Theoretic Stackelberg Game Approach

In this paper, the problem of energy trading between smart grid prosumers, who can simultaneously consume and produce energy, and a grid power company is studied. The problem is formulated as a single-leader, multiple-follower Stackelberg game between the power company and multiple prosumers. In this game, the power company acts as a leader who determines the pricing strategy that maximizes its profits, while the prosumers act as followers who react by choosing the amount of energy to buy or sell so as to optimize their current and future profits. The proposed game accounts for each prosumer's subjective decision when faced with the uncertainty of profits, induced by the random future price. In particular, the framing effect, from the framework of prospect theory (PT), is used to account for each prosumer's valuation of its gains and losses with respect to an individual utility reference point. The reference point changes between prosumers and stems from their past experience and future aspirations of profits. The followers' noncooperative game is shown to admit a unique pure-strategy Nash equilibrium (NE) under classical game theory (CGT) which is obtained using a fully distributed algorithm. The results are extended to account for the case of PT using algorithmic solutions that can achieve an NE under certain conditions. Simulation results show that the total grid load varies significantly with the prosumers' reference point and their loss-aversion level. In addition, it is shown that the power company's profits considerably decrease when it fails to account for the prosumers' subjective perceptions under PT

A Heuristic Neural Network Structure Relying on Fuzzy Logic for Images Scoring

Traditional deep learning methods are sub-optimal in classifying ambiguity features, which often arise in noisy and hard to predict categories, especially, to distinguish semantic scoring. Semantic scoring, depending on semantic logic to implement evaluation, inevitably contains fuzzy description and misses some concepts, for example, the ambiguous relationship between normal and probably normal always presents unclear boundaries (normal − more likely normal - probably normal). Thus, human error is common when annotating images. Differing from existing methods that focus on modifying kernel structure of neural networks, this study proposes a dominant fuzzy fully connected layer (FFCL) for Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) scoring and validates the universality of this proposed structure. This proposed model aims to develop complementary properties of scoring for semantic paradigms, while constructing fuzzy rules based on analyzing human thought patterns, and to particularly reduce the influence of semantic conglutination. Specifically, this semantic-sensitive defuzzier layer projects features occupied by relative categories into semantic space, and a fuzzy decoder modifies probabilities of the last output layer referring to the global trend. Moreover, the ambiguous semantic space between two relative categories shrinks during the learning phases, as the positive and negative growth trends of one category appearing among its relatives were considered. We first used the Euclidean Distance (ED) to zoom in the distance between the real scores and the predicted scores, and then employed two sample t test method to evidence the advantage of the FFCL architecture. Extensive experimental results performed on the CBIS-DDSM dataset show that our FFCL structure can achieve superior performances for both triple and multiclass classification in BI-RADS scoring, outperforming the state-of-the-art methods

Non-Parametric Causality Detection: An Application to Social Media and Financial Data

According to behavioral finance, stock market returns are influenced by emotional, social and psychological factors. Several recent works support this theory by providing evidence of correlation between stock market prices and collective sentiment indexes measured using social media data. However, a pure correlation analysis is not sufficient to prove that stock market returns are influenced by such emotional factors since both stock market prices and collective sentiment may be driven by a third unmeasured factor. Controlling for factors that could influence the study by applying multivariate regression models is challenging given the complexity of stock market data. False assumptions about the linearity or non-linearity of the model and inaccuracies on model specification may result in misleading conclusions. In this work, we propose a novel framework for causal inference that does not require any assumption about the statistical relationships among the variables of the study and can effectively control a large number of factors. We apply our method in order to estimate the causal impact that information posted in social media may have on stock market returns of four big companies. Our results indicate that social media data not only correlate with stock market returns but also influence them.Comment: Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 201

Learning Task Specifications from Demonstrations

Real world applications often naturally decompose into several sub-tasks. In many settings (e.g., robotics) demonstrations provide a natural way to specify the sub-tasks. However, most methods for learning from demonstrations either do not provide guarantees that the artifacts learned for the sub-tasks can be safely recombined or limit the types of composition available. Motivated by this deficit, we consider the problem of inferring Boolean non-Markovian rewards (also known as logical trace properties or specifications) from demonstrations provided by an agent operating in an uncertain, stochastic environment. Crucially, specifications admit well-defined composition rules that are typically easy to interpret. In this paper, we formulate the specification inference task as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) probability inference problem, apply the principle of maximum entropy to derive an analytic demonstration likelihood model and give an efficient approach to search for the most likely specification in a large candidate pool of specifications. In our experiments, we demonstrate how learning specifications can help avoid common problems that often arise due to ad-hoc reward composition.Comment: NIPS 201