ORANGE: Outcome-Oriented Predictive Process Monitoring Based on Image Encoding and CNNs

The outcome-oriented predictive process monitoring is a family of predictive process mining techniques that have witnessed rapid development and increasing adoption in the past few years. Boosted by the recent successful applications of deep learning in predictive process mining, we propose ORANGE, a novel deep learning method for learning outcome-oriented predictive process models. The main innovation of this study is that we adopt an imagery representation of the ongoing traces, which delineates potential data patterns that arise at neighbour pixels. Leveraging a collection of images representing ongoing traces, we train a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to predict the outcome of an ongoing trace. The empirical study shows the feasibility of the proposed method by investigating its accuracy on different benchmark outcome prediction problems in comparison to state-of-art competitor methods. In addition, we show how ORANGE can be integrated as an Intelligent Assistant into a CVM realized by MTM Project srl company to support sales agents in their negotiations. This case study shows that ORANGE can be effectively used to smartly monitor the outcome of ongoing negotiations by early highlighting negotiations that are candidate to be completed successfully

How managers can use predictive analysis and mathematical models as decision making tools

Cet article propose une mesure simple (un modèle mathématique) évaluant la performance de différentes entités de vente (comme les vendeurs, les territoires de vente, les bureaux de vente régionaux ou l'ensemble des ventes de l'organisation) est proposée. Cette mesure est facile à estimer et elle peut facilement être comprise par les gestionnaires. De fait, elle peut être utilisé pour comparer les performances des différentes entités de vente, en tenant compte des conditions prévalant dans les différents marchés (tels que l'efficacité de la concurrence, la pénétration des ventes, ou les fluctuations du marché local). Les résultats de la mise en oeuvre de cette mesure dans une grande entreprise d'assurance dommage nord-américaine sont présentés

Conflicts and cures: fisheries conflicts and international fisheries policy instruments

In the context of an apparently ever-globalized world, fishing resources are prey to quickly evolving interests from an increasing number of stakeholders. Fisheries conflicts must be assessed if we want to address the sustainability of a sector that employs over 40.3 million fishers, extracts 90.9 million tons of marine seafood a year (FAO 2018). Using 66 questionnaires and case studies from 42 countries gathered at the “Tenure and UserRights in Fisheries 2018: Achieving Sustainable Development Goals by 2030” (UserRights 2018) global conference, this study aims to: (1) showcase the different types of fisheries conflicts and resolution mechanisms found in the 66 cases; and (2) assess whether three existing fisheries policy instruments - the Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries (CCRF, FAO 1995), the Voluntary Guidelines on the Responsible Governance of Tenure of Land, Fisheries and Forests in the Context of National Food Security (VGGTs, FAO 2012), and the Voluntary Guidelines for Securing Sustainable Small-Scale Fisheries in the Context of Food Security and Poverty Eradication (SSF Guidelines, FAO 2014) - address these conflicts and provide solutions to them. Based on Charles (1992) typology of fisheries conflicts, 92.4% of the cases reported conflicts, mostly associated with management mechanisms and internal allocation arguments. Regarding conflict resolution, 69% of the cases rely on legal and/or judicial systems. Among the three fisheries international policy instruments, the VGGTs provide basis for fisheries dispute resolution. However, there is room for more international instruments sensitive to fisheries conflicts, that are able to provide both issue and context-specific guidance to support fisheries stakeholders at all levels, embedded in a sustainable fishery governance objective

Semantic discovery and reuse of business process patterns

Patterns currently play an important role in modern information systems (IS) development and their use has mainly been restricted to the design and implementation phases of the development lifecycle. Given the increasing significance of business modelling in IS development, patterns have the potential of providing a viable solution for promoting reusability of recurrent generalized models in the very early stages of development. As a statement of research-in-progress this paper focuses on business process patterns and proposes an initial methodological framework for the discovery and reuse of business process patterns within the IS development lifecycle. The framework borrows ideas from the domain engineering literature and proposes the use of semantics to drive both the discovery of patterns as well as their reuse

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: RESPONSES AND CHALLENGES

No doubt that the issue of Global climate change has been one ofthe greatest environmental problems whose effects cannot be denied in diverse countries and the world at large. The avert effect from this issue has led tq several local, regional and international conferences which have culminated in several protocols, and international legal frameworks formulated (Ranging from The Rio Earth Summit, Kyoto Protocol, and Copenhagen Conference among others) to tackle this issue. Yet Global climate change remains a global concern and a major threat to human security. The study examines the responses to Global Climate Change and the factors limiting the effectiveness and efficiency of the response. This paper adopted the descriptive historical approach and relied solely on secondary sources for data collection. This paper found among others that there are gaps between policy formulation and policy implementation, the major debacle to the effectiveness of the policies is the proliferation of Multilateral Environment Agreement (MEA), overlapping interest between market and nature and lack of gender sensitivity of the responses. Based on the findings, we recommend the need for the feminization of climate change response and more effort towards implementatio

Assessment-driven Learning through Serious Games: Guidance and Effective Outcomes

Evaluation in serious games is an important aspect; it aims to evaluate the good transmission of pedagogical objectives, the performance of student in relation to these objectives defined in the pedagogical scenario, the content of the course and the predefined criteria. However, the effectiveness of learning is under-studied due to the complexity involved to gamify the assessment concept, particularly when it comes to intangible measures related to the progression of learning outcomes, which is among the most important aspects of evaluation in serious games. This paper reviews the literature regarding assessment due to their importance in the learning process with a detailed assessment plan applied on serious game. Then, it presents a framework used to facilitate the assessment design integrated in serious games. Finally, a significant example of how the proposed framework proved successful with corresponding results will conclude the paper

Decision Support Systems

Decision support systems (DSS) have evolved over the past four decades from theoretical concepts into real world computerized applications. DSS architecture contains three key components: knowledge base, computerized model, and user interface. DSS simulate cognitive decision-making functions of humans based on artificial intelligence methodologies (including expert systems, data mining, machine learning, connectionism, logistical reasoning, etc.) in order to perform decision support functions. The applications of DSS cover many domains, ranging from aviation monitoring, transportation safety, clinical diagnosis, weather forecast, business management to internet search strategy. By combining knowledge bases with inference rules, DSS are able to provide suggestions to end users to improve decisions and outcomes. This book is written as a textbook so that it can be used in formal courses examining decision support systems. It may be used by both undergraduate and graduate students from diverse computer-related fields. It will also be of value to established professionals as a text for self-study or for reference

implications to CRM and public policy

Thesis(Doctoral) --KDI School:Ph.D in Public Policy,2017With the advent of the Internet and Mobile Communications, the nature of communication has changed significantly over the past few decades .The promotion of technologies among the common people has been found to be an important element of public policy to reduce the digital divide. The rapid advancement of information technology (IT), automation systems and data communications systems leads to improvement of intelligent transport systems (ITS). ITS covers all branches of transportation and involves all dynamically interacting elements of transportation system, i.e. transport means, infrastructure, drivers and commuters. However, few researches have been carried out in the context of public sectors, especially that involving ITS. The purpose of this study is to investigate the justice dimensions that influence satisfaction and public confidence in the context of ITS and to explore implications to Citizen/Customer Relationship Management (CRM) and public policy. This study investigates the following research questions: i) Do levels of perceived justice (distributive, procedural and interactional) in ITS environment affect levels of satisfaction/dissatisfaction? ii) Do levels of satisfaction form ITS affect levels of public confidence? iii) Do levels of dissatisfaction form ITS affect levels of willingness to complain? iv) Do levels of dissatisfaction form ITS affect levels of complaining behavior? v) Do levels of complaining behavior in ITS environment affect levels of satisfaction with complaint handling when the complaints are resolved based on three dimensions (distributive, procedural and interactional)of justice? vi) Do levels of willingness to complain in ITS environment affect levels of public confidence? vii) Do levels of satisfaction with complaint handling in ITS environment affect levels of public confidence? The findings of this study imply that ITS users are more importantly perceive to equity and equality issues, or distributive justice. The employment of ITS should not be limited to the technical aspects of ITS, but should focus more attention on the subjective domain of justice. The results of this study also have important implications for public complaint handling in terms of increasing public satisfaction with ITS, which is crucial for CRM.Part I: Exploring Satisfaction/Dissatisfaction and Public Confidence in the ITS Environment; Implications to CRM and Public Policy Part II: ComparingSatisfaction/Dissatisfaction and Public Confidence in the ITS Environment in Public and Private Transportation Part III: Implementation Strategy of ITS in Developing CountriesdoctoralpublishedA. K. M. Anisur RAHMAN